1. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 1
Review
Margin Trading and
Shortselling
Handout 02b

2. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 2
BASIC CONCEPT
Hari itu 5/1/2012:
•Initial margin (im)=60%
•Maintenance margin (mm) = 30%
•Balance (equity) = $30,000
•Harga coca cola=P=$50/lb
•Berapa margin loan yang bisa diperoleh?
20000$30000$50000$.
1000
50$
50000$
#
50000$
60.0
30000$
=−=−=
==
===
EALoanM
lbshare
im
E
TO

3. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 3
Misalkan 6/1/2012 P=$35/lb. Bagaimana posisi
margin setelah di marked-to-the market?
Assets Liabilitites & Equitites
1000lb @$50 $50000 Margin Loan $20000
Equity $30000
Total $50000 Total $50000
Statement as of 5/1/2012
Statement as of 6/1/2012
Assets Liabilitites & Equitites
1000lb @$35 $35000 Margin Loan $20000
Equity $15000
Total $35000 Total $35000

4. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 4
Jadi posisi 6/1/2012:
Masih dalam restricted margin (aman).
- Bagaimana kalau kemudian tgl 7/1/2012 P=$25?
%9.42%100
35000$
15000$
== xm
Statement as of 7/1/2012
Assets Liabilitites & Equitites
1000lb @$25 $25000 Margin Loan $20000
Equity $ 5000
Total $25000 Total $ 25000
%20%100
25000$
5000$
== xm

5. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 5
Karena <30% maka masuk under margin, sehingga
dikenai margin call
-Berapa harus disuntikan agar kembali ke i.m?
Nilai A=$25000
i.m=60%
-- jadi expected E=0.6x$25000=$15000
-- current E=$5000
-- perlu ditambahkan $10000 (= 15000-5000)

6. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 6
Assets Liabilitites & Equitites
1000lb @$25 $25000 Margin Loan $10000
Equity $15000
Total $25000 Total $25000
Statement as of 7/1/2012 setelah tambah dana
Sudah kembali ke initial margin
Mengacu pada posisi awal tgl 5/1/2012: pada
harga berapa anda akan terkena margin call?
%60%100
25000$
15000$
== xm

7. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 7
Jika P jatuh sampai di bawah $28.6 maka anda dikenai margin call
6.28$
20000$700
20000$1000300
1000
20000$1000
3.0
3.0%30.
20000$1000
20000$
10001000
=
=
−=
−
=
=
==
−=−=
=
===
P
P
PP
P
P
A
E
m
mm
PLAE
Loan
PxPATO

8. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 8
5.39799$5.20200$60000$
5.20200$)005.01(
60000$100060$......60
20000$30000$50000$.
1000
50$
50000$
#
50000$
60.0
30000$
2
=−=−=
=+=
===
=−=−=
==
===
LAE
Loan
xAP
EALoanM
lbshare
im
E
TO
LEVERAGE: Kasus A1.
i.m=60%, m.m=30%; P naik 20% (jadi $60); dan
suku bunga= 6%pa=0.5% pm

9. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 9
Assets Liabilitites & Equitites
1000lb @$60 $60000 Margin Loan $20200.5
Equity $39799.5
Total $60000 Total $60000
Statement after 2 months
%7.32%100
30000$
5.9799$
5.9799$300005.39799$.
==
=−=
xROI
gainNet

10. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 10
2.87293$8.272706$360000$
8.272706$270000)005.01(
360000$600060$
60:
270000$30000$300000$.
6000
50$
300000$
#
300000$
10.0
30000$
2
=−=−=
=+=
==
=
=−=−=
==
===
LAE
Loan
xA
PIf
EALoanM
lbshare
im
E
TO
LEVERAGE: Kasus A2
i.m=10%, m.m=7%; P naik 20% jadi P=$60; dan
suku bunga =6%pa=0.5% pm

11. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 11
Assets Liabilitites & Equitites
6000lb @$60 $360000 Margin Loan $272706.8
Equity $ 87293.2
Total $360000 Total $360000
Statement as after 2 months
Dengan margin yang lebih kecil, maka ROI
(dalam hal ini keuntungan) akan berlipat
%0.191%100
30000$
2.57293$
2.57293$30000$2.87293$.
==
=−=
xROI
gainNet

12. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 12
5.19799$5.20200$40000$
5.20200$)005.01(
40000$100040$
40
20000$30000$50000$.
1000
50$
50000$
#
50000$
60.0
30000$
2
=−=−=
=+=
==
=
=−=−=
==
===
LAE
Loan
xA
P
EALoanM
lbshare
im
E
TO
LEVERAGE: Kasus B1
i.m=60%, m.m=30%; P turun 20% jadi P=$40; dan
suku bunga= 6%pa=0.5% pm

13. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 13
Assets Liabilitites & Equitites
1000lb @$40 $40000 Margin Loan $20200.5
Equity $19799.5
Total $40000 Total $40000
Statement after 2 months
%00.34%100
30000$
5.10200$
5.10200$300005.19799$.
−=
−
=
−=−=
xROI
gainNet

14. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 14
8.32706$8.272706$240000$
8.272706$270000)005.01(
240000$600040$
40:
270000$30000$300000$.
6000
50$
300000$
#
300000$
10.0
30000$
2
−=−=−=
=+=
==
=
=−=−=
==
===
LAE
Loan
xA
PIf
EALoanM
lbshare
im
E
TO
LEVERAGE: Kasus B2
i.m=10%, m.m=7%; P turun 20% jadi P=$40; dan
suku bunga =6%pa=0.5% pm

15. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 15
Assets Liabilitites & Equitites
6000lb @$40 $240000 Margin Loan $272706.8
Equity -$32706.8
Total $240000 Total $240000
Statement after 2 months
%209%100
30000$
8.62706$
8.62706$300008.32706$.
−=
−
=
−=−−=
xROI
gainNet
Dengan margin yang lebih kecil, maka ROI
(dalam hal ini kerugian) akan berlipat

16. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 16
( ) %20%100
30000
3000036000
36000$60060$
60:
600
50$
30000$
#
30000$
=
−
=
==
=
==
=
xROI
xA
PIf
lbshare
TO
Tanpa margin, ROI lebih rendah
LEVERAGE: Kasus C1. Tanpa Margin, harga naik.
P naik 20% jadi P=$60; dan suku bunga
=6%pa=0.5% pm

17. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 17
( ) %20%100
30000
3000024000
24000$60040$
40:
600
50$
30000$
#
30000$
−=
−
=
==
=
==
=
xROI
xA
PIf
lbshare
TO
Tanpa margin, ROI lebih rendah
LEVERAGE: Tanpa Margin, Harga Turun
P turun 20% jadi P=$40; dan suku bunga
=6%pa=0.5% pm

18. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 18
Tanggal 5/1/2012:
• P=$20
• Mary expect harga akan turun jadi $15
• Mary melakukan short 1000lb untuk dicover 3
bulan yad
• Apakah langkah tsb benar?
• Berapa laba/rugi jika saat covering P=$15?
Langkah tsb benar, sebab jika saat covering harga saham
turun, berarti cost untuk membeli saham (guna
dikembalikan ke broker), menjadi lebih murah dibanding
saat menjual di pasar spot ketika shortsale dilakukan
(5/1/2012).
SHORTSALE

19. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 19
-Shortsale = pinjam langsung jual di pasar spot
-TR (5/1/2012)= 1000lbx$20/lb=$20000
- Biaya covering (jika P=$15)
-TC=$15/lbx1000lb = $15000 (5/3/2012)
-Setelah 3 bulan:
( ) 5.2030120000005.01
3
=+= xTR
Laba=$20301.5-$15000=$5301.5
SHORTSALE…

20. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 20
SHORTSALE…
Bagaimana jika saat covering P naik jadi $25?
-Shortsale= pinjam langsung jual
-TR (5/1/2012)= 1000lbx$20/lb=$20000
- Biaya covering (jika P=$25)
-TC=$25/lbx1000lb = $25000 (5/3/2012)
-Setelah 3 bulan:
( ) 5.2030120000005.01
3
=+= xTR
Laba=$20301.5-$25000 = - $4698.5

21. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 21
Tanggal 5/1/2012:
• T Bills dengan DTM=90 hari dan FV=$1juta
dipasarkan dengan diskon d=4% (bunga=6%)
• Mary expect suku bunga akan naik, sehingga
diskon juga naik menjadi 7%
• Mary melakukan short 1 TBills untuk dicover 2
bulan
• Apakah langkah tsb benar?
• Berapa laba/rugi jika saat covering d=7%?
Langkah tsb benar, sebab jika saat covering diskon naik,
berarti harga Tbills turun, maka cost untuk membeli TBills
menjadi lebih murah.
Shortsale TBills

22. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 22
Shortsale Tbills…
Jika benar saat covering diskon naik menjadi 7% maka
TC saat covering:
990000$1000000
360
90
04.01
360
1
=





−=






−=
xTR
xFV
DTM
dTR
999925990000
12
06.0
1
2
=





+= xTR
Setelah 2 bulan
982500$1000000
360
90
07.01 =





−= xTC
Laba= 999925-982500 = 17425

23. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 23
Shortsale Tbills…Jika diskon turun jadi 2.4%?
Jika benar saat covering diskon turun menjadi 2% maka
TC saat covering:
990000$1000000
360
90
04.01
360
1
=





−=






−=
xTR
xFV
DTM
dTR
999925990000
12
06.0
1
2
=





+= xTR
Setelah 2 bulan
995000$1000000
360
90
02.01 =





−= xTC
Laba= 99925-995000 = 4925
Jika bunga tidak diperhitungkan: Laba=-$5000

24. Institusi Depositori & Pasar Modal
AST/MM-USAKTI, 2013-II 24
THANK YOU