1. C A R L O S A . M A R T I C O R E N A , M U H A D J A M A , N A V R A J
P A B L A , S E Y E D H A M E D J . B E H N A M

2. TABLE OF CONTENT
3.1 - Aviation Activity Overview
• Air Carrier
• Origin/Destination and
Connecting Passengers,
• Aviation activity’s
3.2 – Historical Growth
3.3 – Aviation Forecasts
• Forecasting process
• Aviation Operation
3.4 – Forecast for Facility Planning
• Development of schedules of
activity
• Industry planning standards
• Seasonal Variations and Peaks
• Passenger Planning Levels
• Aircraft Movement Planning
Levels:
3.5 - Forecast Implication
• Forecast Implications
• Utilization of Facilities
C A R L O S A . M A R T I C O R E N A , M U H A D J A M A , N A V R A J
P A B L A , S E Y E D H A M E D J . B E H N A M

3. 3.1 AVIATION ACTIVITY OVERVIEW
Toronto Pearson International Airport Market Profile:
• Network, Low cost, and Charters Air Carrier
• origin/destination and connecting passengers,
• The Air cargo, Business, and General aviation profile.
C A R L O S A . M A R T I C O R E N A , M U H A D J A M A , N A V R A J
P A B L A , S E Y E D H A M E D J . B E H N A M

4. 3.1 AVIATION ACTIVITY – NETWORK CARRIER
Network carriers are scheduled airlines that focus on providing a wide
range of pre-
flight and on-board services including different service classes and
connecting flights.
Air Canada, British Airways and American Airlines are considered to be
Network
Carrier airlines due to their every day service to majority of destinations.
Most network carriers operate a hub and spoke network allowing Toronto
Pearson to
develop more point to point connections for their passengers.
C A R L O S A . M A R T I C O R E N A , M U H A D J A M A , N A V R A J
P A B L A , S E Y E D H A M E D J . B E H N A M

5. 3.1 AVIATION ACTIVITY – LOW COST CARRIER
Low cost carriers is a newer generation of airline in which competes with
the network
carriers by avoiding the overhead costs associated with services like
connections, and
serving regional and international destinations.
Example of Low Cost Carrier West Jet, South West, Ryan Air, and EasyJet
Tend to operate with a limited number of aircraft, fewer destination but
compete on
airfare/cost and frequency services
Avoid overhead cost such as operating a variety of aircraft, providing
multiclass
configuration/lounges, meals,
C A R L O S A . M A R T I C O R E N A , M U H A D J A M A , N A V R A J
P A B L A , S E Y E D H A M E D J . B E H N A M

6. 3.1 AVIATION ACTIVITY – CHARTER CARRIER
A charter carrier is contracted by tour operators to fly their passengers to
holiday
destinations.
Air Transat and Skyservice are two of Toronto Pearson longest serving
Charter Carrier
in operation
They operate at the peak seasons and tend to reduce operation during
quieter
periods
C A R L O S A . M A R T I C O R E N A , M U H A D J A M A , N A V R A J
P A B L A , S E Y E D H A M E D J . B E H N A M

7. AVIATION ACTIVITY – PASSENGERS AT
PEARSON
Toronto Pearson has a strong origin and destination travel traffic base in
which
passengers either begin or end their journey at this airport. The airport
benefits from
a large diversity of routes.
Toronto Pearson is an attractive gateway for Canadian, and U.S connecting
passengers. The airport is the fifth largest entry airport into the United
States after
New York, JFK, Chicago, Miami and Los Angeles International.
Toronto Pearson is a significant connecting point (Journeys that passes
beyond
approached airport) for passengers. Approximately 20% of passengers that
pass
through Pearson are connecting.
C A R L O S A . M A R T I C O R E N A , M U H A D J A M A , N A V R A J
P A B L A , S E Y E D H A M E D J . B E H N A M

8. AVIATION ACTIVITY – PEARSON'S CARGO
Pearson is a major trans-shipment center for cargo travelling between
Canadian and
international points, as the dominant Canadian airport for air cargo
shipments is
expected to grow both regional and national.
Freighters are now filling this role since the use of smaller aircraft
negatively
impacted carrying capacity on many routes and continue to do in the
future. Freighter
demand suffered far less than passenger hold demand in comparison of
the use of
regional jets
Use of RJ’s in right-sizing markets instead of larger aircraft is negatively
impacting
belly cargo capacity on same North American routes.
C A R L O S A . M A R T I C O R E N A , M U H A D J A M A , N A V R A J
P A B L A , S E Y E D H A M E D J . B E H N A M

9. 3.1 AVIATION ACTIVITY – BUSINESS AT
PEARSON
Business Aviation exists at Pearson because a number of corporate aircraft
are
housed in the infield and north business aviation areas.
These types of operation are consider to aid Busniess, Government,
Military. Not for
Public or Cargo operation
Cooperate aircraft are piloted by individuals who have at a minimum, a
valid
commercial pilot’s license with an instrument rating.
C A R L O S A . M A R T I C O R E N A , M U H A D J A M A , N A V R A J
P A B L A , S E Y E D H A M E D J . B E H N A M

10. 3.2 Historical Growth
Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj Pabla, Seyedhamed J.
Behnam
Aviation Services is generally dependent on the
general heath of the economy. As shown in figure 3-3,
growth rate in passenger volumes change with:
1-Growth rate in economy
2-Terrorist attacks were a shock with 20% reduction in traffic of
2001. (September 11, 2001)
3-Diseases such as SARS in 2003.
4-Iraq and Afghan Wars with 15% reduction.
5-Changing the regulation of air carrier industry.
6-In 2005 and 2006, oil prices increased and it brought increase on
ticket’s prices.
By 2006-07 Traffic levels were back to normal and demand continued to increase till reached
30.97 million passengers in 2006.

11. 3.3 – Aviation Forecast
Forecasting Process
The method of producing forecast are based on:
1) The economy (domestic & abroad)
2) Demographic factors
In which collaborates in predicting forecast by monitoring activity
affecting supply and demand which includes: Gross Domestic Products,
Adult and Immigrant Population, Air fares
Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj
Pabla, Seyedhamed J. Behnam
Significant, Strategic Forecasting Factors
Service supplied by Air Carriers is a significant factor for the economy. Ultimately
depends on the competition of:
• Other Air Carrier & other motive of transportation,
• Fuel cost & Efficiency
• Labor cost
• Government Regulations & Policy Issues
• Airport & Air Navigation cost
• Congestion & environmental initiatives

12. 3.3 – Aviation Forecast
Strategic Factors
Factor in which help cause change from previous historical pattern of Supply and
Demand for better aviation service such as:
 Expanding use of Electronic Communication and Teleconferencing
 Presence of LCC, Charter Air Carrier vs. other low-fare transportation
 the Hassle factors – Security, Uncertainty, and Inconsistency
Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj
Pabla, Seyedhamed J. Behnam

13. 3.3 Passenger Forecasting
Collaborated data put together from various resources
such as:
 External agencies (Conference board of Canada,
Informetrica)
 Pearson historical traffic data
Determine a prediction for the demand of passenger
travel. The data that is used to determine passenger
demand can be broken down into two different models:
Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj
Pabla, Seyedhamed J. Behnam
Econometric Passenger
Origin/Destination (PODM):
projects the number of Origin/Destination
passengers within each area of the Country for
Domestic, Trans border, International
transportation
Passenger Traffic Allocation (PTAM):
Incorporates connecting passengers to yield a forecast
producing the Enplaned/Deplaned passenger volume
for the major airports in the country, as well provide a
forecast for Aircraft Movement

14. 3.3 Business & Cargo
Business/General Aviation Forecast
Business aviation activity is expect to maintain its presence with Toronto
Pearson with Corporate operation, not in terms with Government or
Private Operators which are offsetting declines in the forecast
Cargo Travel
Toronto Pearson being ranked 38th for Air Cargo Volume being
measured 517,00 metric tons of Cargo shipments has only been a
secondary business for Toronto Pearson.
As for many other corporation such as Fed-ex, UPS, DHL collaborates
with Toronto Pearson and take advantage of all its Cargo Shipment
Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj
Pabla, Seyedhamed J. Behnam

15. 3.3 Aircraft Movement Forecast
A collaboration of data and forecast such as:
 Passenger Demand
 Non-passenger operation (Business, Cargo, General Aviation),
 Airline statistic (Load factor, Aircraft size)
To yield an Aircraft movement Forecast for facility uses or to be converted for future
schedule time planning needs.
Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj
Pabla, Seyedhamed J. Behnam
All these Factor/Forecast in the end influences the Airline fleet
(Number of Aircraft + Size of Plane), the passengers loads, and
route structure
These Forecasts that Pearson Airport processes are reviewed
annually by Transport Canada and is tracked by the Greater Toronto
Airport Authorities (GTAA) on a monthly basis to make final
adjustment in the forecast by taking account for:
• Non-revenue Passengers (Airline employees, cheaply
discounted fare)
• Providing micro-detail requirements for facility planning process

16. 3.4 FORECAST FOR FACILITY
PLANNING
Provides an overview of the development of forecasted
facilities by:
Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj Pabla, Seyedhamed J.
Behnam
Development of schedules of activity
Analysis data, by Transport Canada, of
five domestic, seven trans border and
seven International zones helps to
account for the appropriate timing of
flights at Toronto; also it helps to
simulations, and to determine future
facility traffic levels, so it will produce
the future facility requirements.
Industry Planning Standards
A daily and hourly passenger and movement volume is the
main requirement for facility planning. There are five main
peak standards:
• The absolute peak
• The average of busiest months
• The average of the seven busiest days of the three busiest
months (Used by ICAO)
• he 90th percentile of daily traffic (Used by Transport
Canada)
• The 95th percentile of day

17. 3.4 FORECAST FOR FACILITY
PLANNING
During calculating and planning days, it is very important to understand which standards are being
met, which are realistic, and which should be viewed as a future target for the Airport.
Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj Pabla, Seyedhamed J.
Behnam
Seasonal Variations and Peaks
In order to forecasting facilities, the
seasonal and daily variations in traffic
levels are required. For instance, the
busiest months at Toronto Pearson are the
summer months of July and August.
Analyzing these traffic data helps to design
facilities in order to handle busy traffic
periods.

18. 3.4 Forecasting for Facility planning
Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj Pabla, Seyedhamed J.
Behnam
Passenger Planning Levels
All standards mentioned above will help Airport to set target levels of activity across a
season by sector and direction.
Aircraft Movement Planning Levels:
These standards also make aircraft movements forecasting.

19.  Discuss the forecast implications for Toronto Pearson
International Airport and their utilization of facilities.
Carlos A. Marticorena, Muhad Jama, Navraj Pabla, Seyedhamed J.
Behnam
3.5 Forecast Implication
Forecast Implications
The airport is expecting to have more than 50
million passengers by the year 2020 as well as
637,000 aircraft movements (Aviation activity
and Forecast,2006). Given the expected
growth of passengers and aircraft
movements, an evaluation will need to be
done in order to determine if Pearson is
capable of dealing with this in the future.
Other airports within the region must also be
able to deal with any spill over from Pearson
or else there will be major delays for
passengers. It will also be difficult to maintain
effective operations in the GTA.
Utilization of Facilities
This chapter outlines the importance of an
efficient airport operation. An assessment
is done in order to determine Toronto
Pearson’s operating efficiency. The time it
takes for a passenger to check in and Pre-
Board screenings for example are included
in this assessment. The efficient utilization
of facilities at Pearson is paramount in its
future success.