Ground Handling Financial and M&A overview

Didier Bréchemier
Senior Partner, Roland Berger
Copenhagen, November 29th, 2016
Ground handling –
Financial and M&A
overview

2Day 2 Session 1 Paper 1 - Didier Brechemier Financial and MA overview VF2.pptx
Financial and M&A overview
Presentation topics
Source: Roland Berger
Agenda
2. The ground handling market is growing, yet remains primarily volume-driven:
> Anticipated +2.9% p.a. market growth in coming years, both on Ramp & Passage (+2.7%) and on Cargo (+3.6%), with fastest-
growing regions expected to be Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Africa
> Primarily volume-driven growth though, supported by aircraft turnarounds/ passenger traffic and air freight volumes, with little-
to-no price increase with price evolution expected to stand below inflation
3. The industry has been consolidating over the past 20 years, yet margins remain relatively low and variable
across players:
> Historical consolidation trend, accelerated over the past 5 years with dynamic M&A activity
> Yet still a fragmented market, with top 10 players accounting for < 40% of the global independent ground handling market
> Differentiated profitability profiles, variable across players with no direct correlation to size
4. The industry will be faced with key challenges in the coming years:
> Internationalization of activities, with further penetration of Asia, Latin America and Africa markets
> Integration of technology into ground handling operations (e.g. luggage e-tagging, drones, geolocation, biometrics, …)
> Asset-model questioning (e.g. GSE ownership/ leasing, pooling, …)
1. 4 major trends will impact your clients, the airlines:
> Average 2015 operational margin of top #20 airlines is 10.5% and expected to increase by 12% overall in 2016 whereas 2014
margins were around 4.4%
> Oil price will rise in the next 5 years but is expected to remain between $56 and $72 per barrel according to brokers consensus
> Extension of the low cost business model to long-haul flight (Norwegian, Frenchblue, Eurowings, Air France (on going))
> The increasing part of Asian people in passenger overall flow implies to redefine customer relationship

Average top #20 airlines operational margin has surged between
2014 and 2015 by 137%
Benchmark of operational margins of top #201) airlines [2012-2015]
Source : FlightGlobal, Roland Berger, IATA
5%
11%
8%
5%
16%
7%
7%
8%
13%
14%
12%
10%
10%
10%
3%
5%
14%
15%
Emirates Group
United Continental Holdings
American Airlines Group
Delta Air Lines
FedEx
Air France-KLM Group
IAG
Lufthansa Group
21%
Cathay Pacific Group
Ø 10.5%
LATAM Airlines Group
Air Canada
Singapore Airlines Group
Turkish Airlines
Japan Airlines
Qantas Group
Southwest Airlines
China Eastern Airlines
Air China
ANA Group
China Southern Air Holding Co
19%
Operational margin2) Top #20 airlines [2015]
Evolution of average top #20 airlines
average operational margin[2012-2015]
10,5%
4,4%4,5%
4,1%
2012
+137%
2013 20152014
1) In revenues 2) Operational outcome(EBIT) / revenues
1 Major trends
> Historical level of
margins for top #20
airlines ~4%
> 2015 average margin
very high ~10.5%
(between 3% and 21%)
due to the drop in oil
price
> In 2016 the overall
margin of airlines is
expected to grow by
12% compare to 2015

Oil price is expected at USD 60 to 70 by 2020 with direct impact on
the airlines margins
99
109
112111
6566
62
7272
70
61
58
55
53
55
2018e201520132010
80
2017e2016e1)20142011
491)
50
2012 2019e 2020e
Source : Bloomberg, Broker reports, Roland Berger
= Low
Low (1st quarter)Median High (3rd quarter)Historical
= High
= Median
1) Based on barrel spot price the 30th of September
Forecast for Brent Crude Oil [2010-20; USD/ bbl; Average annual nominal]
> Consensus among broker
reports (~50 during October
2016 ) between USD 55 and
USD 72
> There is a strong linear
correlation (r2=0,94)
between top 100 airlines
EBIT and oil price (inverse)
between 2010 and 2015
1 Major trends

Between 2010 and 2015, exchange rate and oil price inversed effects
partly cancel out each other
Source : Oxford Economics, Bloomberg, broker reports, Roland Berger
Oil price vs Dollar exchange rate [2010-2015; EUR/ USD; USD/ bbl]
> Exchange rate effect and fuel
price partly cancel out each other
during the 2010-2012 & 2013-2015
period for non-american
companies
– Increasing fuel price with a
concomitant dollar weakening
(increase of the EUR / USD
parity) during 2010-11
– Decreasing fuel price with a
concomitant dollar strengthening
(decrease of the EUR / USD
parity) during 2011-12 & 2014-15
> Positive exchange rate effect and
fuel price decrease during 2012-
14 period
– Slight decrease of fuel price
– Dollars weakening Baisse du prix
du dollar (increase of the EUR /
USD parity)
99
109
112111
1,331,33
1,28
1,39
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0,95
1,00
1,05
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,40
1,33
50
1,11
Fuel
[USD/ bbl]
Parity
[EUR/ USD]
80
Fuel [USD/ bbl] Dollar [EUR/ USD]
1 Major trends

Fin. crisis
The market is impacted by the airline industry cyclicality; crisis are
occurring regularly, with a 4 to 8-year frequency
8 years
Crisis frequency
(impact on A/C deliveries)
6 years 4 years 6 years…
Commercial A/C
deliveries [# units]
PAX carried [m]
GDP growth [%]
# A/C deliveries
Note: scale indicated represents # of commercial A/C deliveries only
Gulf war
Iran/Iraq war
Sept. 11/2001
Commercial A/C deliveries1) vs. PAX carried vs. GDP growth [1975–2013]
1) Aircrafts from Airbus + Boeing
Source: Teal, World Bank, ICAO, IMF, Roland Berger analysis
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
1.000
1.200
1.100
1.300
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-4%
-30%
-45%
-43%
CAGR: -17%
CAGR: -18%
CAGR: -13%
1 Major trends

GH Market
Long-term
embarked growth
Sales % Evolution
Years
GH Market cycles – Overview
GH market is driven by 4 key components – Based on the market
cycles 2017 could be the starting point for a new crisis phase
Source: Roland Berger analysis
2 3 4
Growth to peak Crisis Rebound
1
1 Long-term trend: embarked growth of the GH market
determined through correlation with aircraft fleet
analysis and drivers analysis
2 Growth to peak determined based on trend of each
region. Peak calculated through the intersection of
embarked growth from previous crisis peak and
current trend
3 Crisis slope determined based on comparative
analysis with previous crisis on a per region basis
4 Rebound trend based on previous crisis trend with
adjustment factor
1 Major trends

The low cost business model starts to extend to long-haul flight in
Europe
Recent launches and ongoing projects in low cost long haul flight sector
1
Low cost long-haul
business model
> Started in Asia and Australia
before 2010
> Two different models:
– Subsidiary of legaciy
– pure player
> Further development enabled by
the recent drop of oil price
> Recent development in Europe
as a competitive response of
legacy players (Air France,
Lufthansa,…)
> Short Medium Haul offer is now
accepted by customers
> Cost competitiveness compare to
legacies
– -15% to 30% with LH planes
– -20% to 50% with SMH planes
Major trends
Legacy
subsidiaries
Pure players
1) The size of the bubbles represents the number of aircraft 2) The dotted circles represent the 2020 development target
Short & Medium Haul planesLong Haul planes
202020102005 2015
Years
Source: Companies , Roland Berger

Low cost Long haul
model LCC model (middle haul)Legacy companies
Source: Roland Berger analysis
Low cost long haul
companies attributes
High density aircraft cabinCozy seat High density: ~+30% vs. legacy
Unique cabinClass separation
(2 to 4 classes)
One class or bi class with small
premium area
Direct sellGDS / AGV / Direct Big part of direct sell
Small price range/ low costWide price range
Target price: from -30% to -50% vs.
legacy
Unique aircraft typeMulti type flight fleet Mono type of plane: A330-200/300,
B787, A350, A380 (?)
2cd class airport1st tierce airport, hub Airports tierce 1 or tierce 2
CMC roadsCMC & LC roads LC and CMC
Minimum free services
Paid services
"All in" service
LCC service model + development of
connectivity
Connections / transfers Big ^part of direct flight but a bit of
connectivity
Only direct flight
High efficiency planes Up to 17h flight/dayMiddle efficiency flights
The emergence of the low-cost long-haul model is a consequence of
the overall convergence of the legacy and LCC models
1 Major trends
Description of Low Cost Long Haul business model through classic airline businesses

5.2
3.5
(68%)
2022
0.7
(13%)
0.8
(15%)
+4% p.a.
3.6
0.7
(20%)
North America
Europe & CEI
Asia
Others
2032
0.3 (5%)
0.3 (7%)
0.6
(16%)
2.0
(57%)
2012
0.9
(38%)
0.3 (12%)
0.7
(30%)
0.4
(19%)
2.2
CAGR
2012-22 2022-32
+3.0% +2.7%
+9.1% +5.6%
-0.1% -0.3%
+0.3% -0.3%
Source: Airbus, IHS Global Insight
1) Home family with more than 10 to 100 dollars daily consumption for each family member (purchasing power parity)
Upper middle class evolution [# billion]1)
The share of Asian people in overall passenger population is
booming and implies to redefine customer relationship
1 Major trends
Impact of passenger origin
shift for airlines services
> Culture communication
> Food
> Langage
> A major trend is also the
development of domestic
flight in Asia, overall + 83 m
O-D journeys in 2015 in Asia:
– +10.6% in China
– +35% in Indonesia
– +20% in India
– +34% in Thailand
– +30% in Vietnam

The ground handling market is growing at +2.9% p.a., primarily
driven by emerging regions – Increasing share of independent GH
2 A growing yet volume-driven market
Global ground handling market [2015-20F; EUR bn]
Source: DKMA 2015, Roland Berger
11.1
35.8
2015
13.2
46.8
54.1
40.8
+2.9%
2020
CAGR
15-20
+2.9%
2020
14.8
17.3
16.1
46.8
10.7
1.9
11.7
2.4
4.8
4.0
1.4
14.0
54.1
1.7
2015
18.6
2015
28.2
23.0
31.1
2020
54.1
+2.9%
46.8
CAGR
15-20
CAGR
15-20
Split by type of player Split by activity Split by region
Independent GHs
Airports/ airlines
Ramp & Passage
Cargo
North America
Middle-East
Africa Asia-Pacific
Latin America
Europe
+4.4%
+1.7%
+3.9%
+4.2%
+1.7%
+3.9%+3.6%
+2.7%
+1.9%
+4.1%
> Growing market, primarily
driven by Cargo activity
(+3.6% p.a. between 2015
and 2020)
> Growth mainly located in
emerging regions (Asia,
Middle-East, Latin America
and Africa) due to traffic
growth
> Higher share of
independent ground
handlers (from 40% in
2015 to 43% in 2020),
especially in emerging
regions boosted by
markets liberalization and
in the US where
outsourcing rate is lower
than in Europe (34% vs.
56% in 2015)

This growth is primarily driven by volumes whilst prices are
expected to stay below inflation levels
2 A growing yet volume-driven market
Independent ground handling market [2015-20F; EUR bn]
R&P volume/ price bridge Cargo volume/ price bridge
Mix
+3.5%
5.8
2020Price
0.0
Volume
0.0
2015
0.94.9
Price
0.10.4
Volume
3.0
2015
13.7
+4.6%
17.2
2020Mix
> Market driven by volume growth, with specific levers in each activity: turnarounds volume and outsourcing rate for R&P and air
freight volume for Cargo
> Slightly positive price/ mix effect for R&P activity

Indeed, turnarounds/ air cargo volumes and outsourcing rates stand
out as the key drivers of independent ground handling market growth
2 A growing yet volume-driven market – Back up
Independent ground handling market [2015-20F; CAGR]
R&P market drivers Cargo market drivers
Addres-
sable
ground
handling
market
value
Total volume of
ground handling
Outsourcing rate
Ground
handling
volume
available
Price of
ground
handling
services
Customer pressure
Competition level
Increase in wage +
supplier cost base
Turnarounds
volume
Volume of
services per
turnaround
+2.5% p.a.
+2.0% p.a.
+0.6% p.a.
+4.6% p.a.
-0.5% p.a.
Passenger
traffic
Average
number of
passengers
per turnaround
/
+4.0% p.a.
+2.0% p.a.
X
X
X
[x% p.a.]: 2015-2020 growth forecasts
Share of cargo
handling market
addressable by
independent handlersAddressable
generalair
cargo
handling
market value
Total air
cargo volume
Share of
express air
cargo volume
General air cargo
handling volume
General air
cargo
handling
volume
addressable
Air cargo
handling
price
Customer pressure
and
level of competition
Service mix effects
+3.2% p.a.
+3.5% p.a.
Stable
+3.5% p.a.
+3.6% p.a.
-0.4% p.a.
+0.3% p.a.
Cost inflation and
potential for pass-
through
X
X
X

Over the last 20 years, the independent ground handling market has
been significantly consolidated – With investor ownership (incl. financial)
Independent ground handling market consolidation
Independent companies Private Equity
1) Latest significant M&A deal in the ground handling industry: Swissport acquired Servisair in August 2013
1998 2016
FCC
Handling
Sabena
Handling
Ogden
Ground
Service
Swiss-
port
CSC
Ground-
star
Dynair
SATSMenzies
ASIG
Servis-
air
Aer
Lingus
Handling
Hudson
General
Tristar
Global
France
Handling
Fraport
Globalia
SFS
SPdH
Globe-
ground
Avia-
partner
SEN
WFS
Dnata
Flight-
care
DGS
ATS
Aviator
Orbital
Oxford
Barc
3 An industry under consolidation with relatively low/ variable margins
Source: Mergermarket, press research, Roland Berger
Menzies
Aviation
Fraport SATS
SEMATEC
Globalia
-
Ground-
force
Avia-
partner
HIG
Swissport1)
HNA
Dnata
Emirates
DGS
ATS
Aviator
Accent
Equity
WFS
Platinium
MAP
Airport/ Airline

M&A activity has rather intensified in recent years, notably through
large deals such as Swissport and WFS acquisitions
An industry under consolidation with relatively low/ variable margins
Source: Mergermarket, press research, Roland Berger
Overview of recent M&A activity [2012-16]
Acquisition of ASIG
by Menzies Aviation
Acquisition of majority
stake in AFS Aviation
by Swissport
Acquisition of
Aviapartner Cargo by
Celebi
2013 2014 2015
Acquisition of
Groundforce
handling unit by
Urbanos
2012
2016
> Consolidation currently
in progress
> Most moves aimed at
expanding international
network and reaching
critical size (eg.
Swissport/ Skylink in
Amsterdam, WFS/ Fraport
Cargo in Frankfurt, WFS/
orbital in Latin America,
Celebi/ Aviapartner in
Germany)
> Some rare attempts of
diversification (eg.
Swissport/ AFS Aviation
Fuel Services, Dnata/
cruise company, travel
agency)
Acquisition of Skystar
and Desacol by
Menzies Aviation
Acquisition of
Finland's Inter
Handling by
Swissport
Acquisition of
Prague Airport's
GHS by Menzies
Aviation
Acquisition of SAS'
ground handing by
Swissport
Acquisition of
Servisair by Swissport
Acquisition of
Swissport's
operations at London
Gatwick by Aviator
Acquisition of
Swissport's
Copenhagen
operations by WFS
Acquisition of Orbital
by WFS
Acquisition of
Swissport's French
ground services by
GH Team
Acquisition of
Flightcare by
Swissport
Acquisition of Skylink
by Swissport
Acquisition of majority
stake in Fraport
Cargo by WFS
3
Acquisition of MAP by
Aviapartners
Partnership between
WFS and ATA in Italy
Multiple acquisitions
by Dnata in a
diversification strategy
(travel agency,
cruising,…)
Acquisition of air
dispatch and Ground
Service International
(USA) by Dnata
Joint Venture
agreement between
SATS and Oman Air
for Cargo Handling at
Muscat International
Airport
ATS acquire Texas
pneumatic systems
Planned acquisition of
Consolidated aviation
service (USA) by
WFS

Despite this consolidation trend, the market remains fragmented (top
10 players < 40% of market) – Few players with a global footprint
An industry under consolidation with relatively low/ variable margins
Competitive landscape of the ground handling market
Source: Company website & presentations, Orbis, Capital IQ, Roland Berger
106
48 51 47
10
19
21
23
38
59
25
60
24
43
80
43
30
14
37
WFS CelebiDnata AviapartnerMenziesSwissport SATS 2) Aviator
9
North America
Asia-Pacific
Middle East/Africa
Latin America
34
79
2Europe
293
144
5 5
149
22
Revenues [EUR m; 2014] and share of the addressable
ground handling market for top 9 players [%; 2014] Top 7 independent handlers' stations per area [2015] –
1) As of December 2014; 2) MEA stations situated in Turkey
Global
players
220224
350
473
650656
951956
2 444
SATSFraportMenziesDnata AviatorWFS CelebiAviapartnerSwissport
x% Market share (on ground handling addressable market)
13.7% 5.4% 5.3% 3.7% 3.6% 2.6% 2.0% 1.3% 1.2%
> Global players have a strong
presence in Europe and in
the US, largest outsourced
markets
> The relatively limited
presence of largest players in
Asia appears linked to the
relatively "closed" or difficult
access to Asia-Pacific
airports (dominated by local
players)
3
Market
share
EBITDA
~ 5–8 %

Looking ahead, 3 key challenges and opportunities await for ground
handling players: international, technology and asset model-related
4 Key challenges for the ground handling industry
Source: press review, Roland Berger
Key challenges/ opportunities for ground handlers
1
3 2
International
Asset model Technology
Key challenges/
opportunities
1 International
> Dnata's multi-year contract with Malaysia Airlines and Firefly in
Singapore (09/2016) and also entered American market
through acquisition
> Menzies Aviation's 3-year contract with Air Europa in
Colombia (07/2016)
> WFS development in the US and South America through CAS
> Swissport signed contract with Gulf Air, Oman Air and Scoot
and strengthen its middle east presence
2 Technology
> Automation of existing ground operations, eg. automated
taxiing equipment (enabling earlier switch off of engines), own
energy provision, …
> Extension of ground operations scope, eg. aircrafts assisted
takeoffs using propelled acceleration powered by sustainable
sources of energy (enabling steeper takeoffs, thus requiring
less runway length)
3 Asset model
> GSE leasing (vs. ownership): vs pooling

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