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Globalisa(on	
  and	
  the	
  UK	
  Economy	
  
What	
  is	
  Globalisa(on?	
  
Page	
  34	
  
Globalisa.on	
  is	
  a	
  process	
  in	
  which	
  na.onal	
  economies	
  
have	
  become	
  increasingly	
  integrated	
  and	
  inter-­‐dependent	
  
Is	
  Globalisa(on	
  Inevitable?	
  
Global	
  trade	
  has	
  grown	
  much	
  less	
  
quickly	
  in	
  the	
  years	
  since	
  the	
  start	
  of	
  
the	
  world	
  financial	
  crisis	
  in	
  2007-­‐08	
  
Some	
  key	
  features	
  of	
  globalisa(on	
  
Trade	
  to	
  GDP	
  ra.os	
  are	
  
rising	
  for	
  most	
  
countries	
  
Expansion	
  of	
  Financial	
  
Capital	
  Flows	
  between	
  
countries	
  
Foreign	
  Direct	
  
Investment	
  and	
  Cross	
  
Border	
  M&A	
  
Rise	
  of	
  truly	
  global	
  
brands	
  –	
  inc	
  from	
  
emerging	
  countries	
  
Deeper	
  specializa.on	
  
of	
  labour	
  –	
  
components	
  from	
  
many	
  na.ons	
  
Global	
  supply	
  chains	
  &	
  
new	
  trade	
  and	
  
investment	
  routes	
  
Changing	
  global	
  trade	
  networks	
  -­‐	
  1995	
  
Changing	
  global	
  trade	
  networks	
  -­‐	
  2013	
  
China’s	
  new	
  economic	
  corridor	
  plan	
  
Mergers	
  and	
  Acquisi(ons	
  Across	
  Borders	
  
Nissan,	
  Sunderland	
   Cummins	
  Power	
  Genera.on,	
  Ramsgate	
  
AkzoNobel,	
  Ashington	
   Siemens,	
  Hull	
  
Foreign	
  direct	
  investment	
  into	
  the	
  UK	
  
1.  Encourages	
  producers	
  and	
  consumers	
  to	
  reap	
  benefits	
  
from	
  deeper	
  division	
  of	
  labour	
  and	
  economies	
  of	
  scale	
  
2.  Compe..ve	
  markets	
  reduce	
  monopoly	
  profits	
  and	
  
incen.vize	
  businesses	
  to	
  seek	
  cost-­‐reducing	
  
innova(ons	
  	
  
3.  Enhanced	
  growth	
  has	
  led	
  to	
  higher	
  per	
  capita	
  incomes	
  –	
  
and	
  helped	
  many	
  of	
  poorest	
  countries	
  to	
  achieve	
  higher	
  
growth	
  and	
  reduce	
  extreme	
  poverty	
  	
  
4.  Advantages	
  from	
  the	
  freer	
  movement	
  of	
  labour	
  
5.  Increased	
  awareness	
  among	
  consumers	
  of	
  challenges	
  
from	
  climate	
  change	
  and	
  wealth/income	
  inequality	
  
Benefits	
  of	
  Globalisa(on	
  
Many	
  of	
  the	
  effects	
  of	
  globalisa.on	
  
are	
  disrup.ve	
  to	
  established	
  
industries	
  and	
  organisa.ons	
  
Poverty	
  Reduc(on	
  –	
  A	
  Major	
  Benefit	
  of	
  Globalisa(on	
  in	
  the	
  Long	
  Run	
  
The	
  percentage	
  of	
  people	
  living	
  in	
  extreme	
  poverty	
  has	
  fallen	
  across	
  all	
  regions	
  
but	
  progress	
  in	
  Sub-­‐Saharan	
  Africa	
  has	
  (un.l	
  recently)	
  been	
  slower	
  
MENA:	
  Middle	
  East	
  and	
  North	
  Africa	
  
1.  Growing	
  inequality	
  leading	
  to	
  poli.cal	
  &	
  social	
  tensions	
  
2.  Threats	
  to	
  the	
  global	
  commons	
  e.g.	
  irreversible	
  damage	
  to	
  
ecosystems,	
  land	
  degrada.on,	
  deforesta.on,	
  water	
  scarcity	
  
3.  Macroeconomic	
  fragility	
  –	
  external	
  economic	
  and	
  financial	
  
shocks	
  in	
  region	
  can	
  rapidly	
  spread	
  to	
  other	
  centres	
  ….	
  
Systemic	
  risk	
  
–  Financial	
  cycles	
  in	
  world	
  economy	
  are	
  more	
  vola.le	
  than	
  real	
  
economic	
  cycles	
  –	
  but	
  strong	
  inter-­‐connec.ons	
  
4.  Trade	
  imbalances	
  leading	
  to	
  calls	
  for	
  protec.onism	
  and	
  a	
  
move	
  towards	
  countries	
  using	
  managed	
  exchange	
  rates	
  
5.  Higher	
  structural	
  unemployment	
  in	
  countries	
  where	
  
produc.on	
  has	
  shi^ed	
  to	
  lower	
  labour	
  cost	
  na.ons	
  
6.  Less	
  cultural	
  diversity	
  as	
  global	
  brands	
  dominate	
  
Disadvantages	
  of	
  Globalisa(on	
  
Imbalances	
  between	
  countries	
   Imbalances	
  within	
  countries	
  
Trade	
  imbalances	
  i.e.	
  current	
  
account	
  surpluses	
  and	
  deficits	
  
Rising	
  income	
  and	
  wealth	
  
inequali.es	
  
Unbalanced	
  flows	
  of	
  foreign	
  direct	
  
investment	
  between	
  countries	
  
Large	
  structural	
  differences	
  in	
  
unemployment	
  rates	
  
Imbalances	
  in	
  access	
  to	
  global	
  
markets,	
  ideas,	
  health	
  &	
  
educa.on	
  
Imbalances	
  between	
  rural	
  and	
  
urban	
  areas	
  /	
  different	
  regions	
  
Globalisa(on	
  and	
  Economic	
  Imbalances	
  
Imbalances	
  between	
  countries	
   Imbalances	
  within	
  countries	
  
Trade	
  imbalances	
  i.e.	
  current	
  
account	
  surpluses	
  and	
  deficits	
  
Rising	
  income	
  and	
  wealth	
  
inequali.es	
  within	
  countries	
  
Unbalanced	
  flows	
  of	
  foreign	
  direct	
  
investment	
  between	
  countries	
  
Large	
  differences	
  in	
  structural	
  
unemployment	
  rates	
  
Imbalances	
  in	
  access	
  to	
  global	
  
markets,	
  ideas,	
  health	
  &	
  
educa.on	
  
Imbalances	
  between	
  rural	
  and	
  
urban	
  areas	
  /	
  different	
  regions	
  
Key	
  Argument:	
  Globalisa(on	
  and	
  Imbalances	
  
Globalisa(on	
  and	
  Economic	
  Imbalances	
  
Financial	
  and	
  Real	
  Economic	
  Cycles	
  Financial	
  &	
  Economic	
  Instability	
  
Background	
  on	
  United	
  Kingdom:	
  (Pop	
  64.1m)	
  (Data)	
  
Recent	
  Macroeconomic	
  Data	
  	
  
Latest	
  annualised	
  
GDP	
  Growth	
  (%)	
  
2.6%	
  
GDP	
  per	
  capita	
  (US	
  
$,	
  PPP	
  standard)	
  
$35,013	
  
Infla.on	
  rate	
  (%)	
   0.5%	
  
Unemployment	
  rate	
  
(%	
  of	
  labour	
  force)	
  
5.8%	
  
Fiscal	
  balance	
  (%	
  of	
  
GDP)	
  
-­‐5.8%	
  
Government	
  debt	
  (%	
  
of	
  GDP)	
  
91%	
  
Yield	
  on	
  10-­‐Yr	
  Govt	
  
Bonds	
  (%)	
  
1.5%	
  
Investment	
  (%	
  of	
  
GDP)	
  in	
  2012	
  
15%	
  
Background	
  Informa(on	
  
Currency	
  unit	
   £	
  
Exchange	
  rate	
  system	
   float	
  
Current	
  policy	
  interest	
  
rate	
  
0.5%	
  
Trade	
  surplus	
  or	
  deficit?	
   Def	
  
Current	
  account	
  
balance	
  (%	
  of	
  GDP)	
  
-­‐4.4%	
  
Main	
  corporate	
  tax	
  rate	
  
(per	
  cent)	
  
21%	
  
Global	
  compe..veness	
  
ranking	
  for	
  2014	
  	
  
9th	
  	
  
Economic	
  Freedom	
  
Index	
  Ranking	
  
14th	
  	
  
Corrup.on	
  Percep.on	
  
Ranking	
  
14th	
  	
  
Other	
  Indicators	
  
Latest	
  HDI	
  ranking	
  	
   14	
  
%	
  of	
  popula.on	
  living	
  
below	
  their	
  na.onal	
  
poverty	
  line	
  
n/a	
  
Life	
  Expectancy	
  (years)	
   81.5	
  
Rank	
  for	
  capacity	
  to	
  
airact	
  skilled	
  talent	
  
5th	
  	
  
Rank	
  for	
  Innova.on	
  and	
  
sophis.ca.on	
  
8th	
  	
  
Gini	
  coefficient	
  (Latest	
  
published	
  es.mate)	
  
36.5	
  
Financial	
  and	
  Real	
  Economic	
  Cycles	
  Does	
  Britain	
  benefit	
  from	
  Globalisa(on?	
  
•  Benefits	
  from	
  trade	
  crea(on	
  
–  Compara.ve	
  advantage	
  and	
  economic	
  efficiency	
  
–  Impor.ng	
  cheaper	
  products	
  /	
  technology	
  
–  Exports	
  as	
  a	
  source	
  of	
  growth	
  /	
  economies	
  of	
  scale	
  
•  Increased	
  contestability	
  of	
  domes(c	
  markets	
  
•  Freer	
  flow	
  of	
  labour	
  –	
  the	
  global	
  baile	
  for	
  talent	
  
–  Skilled	
  immigra.on	
  /	
  inflows	
  of	
  human	
  capital	
  
–  Unemployment	
  has	
  been	
  falling	
  –	
  now	
  below	
  6%	
  
•  Investment	
  opportuni(es	
  for	
  Bri.sh	
  businesses	
  
–  Inward	
  FDI	
  into	
  the	
  UK	
  (a	
  source	
  of	
  jobs	
  and	
  capital)	
  
–  Overseas	
  investment	
  by	
  UK	
  businesses	
  (adds	
  to	
  GNI)	
  
Financial	
  and	
  Real	
  Economic	
  Cycles	
  Costs	
  of	
  Globalisa(on	
  for	
  Britain	
  
•  Higher	
  structural	
  unemployment	
  and	
  more	
  low	
  paid	
  jobs	
  
–  E.g.	
  loss	
  of	
  manufacturing	
  output	
  and	
  jobs	
  to	
  lower	
  labour	
  cost	
  centres	
  
–  Hollowing-­‐Out:	
  Rise	
  of	
  lower-­‐skilled	
  jobs	
  offering	
  below	
  average	
  pay	
  
•  Increased	
  exposure	
  to	
  external	
  economic	
  shocks	
  
–  Increased	
  inter-­‐dependence	
  and	
  fragile	
  global	
  supply-­‐chains	
  
•  Risks	
  of	
  widening	
  income	
  and	
  wealth	
  inequality	
  
–  Higher-­‐skilled	
  jobs	
  get	
  a	
  dispropor.onate	
  reward	
  
–  Downward	
  dri^	
  of	
  real	
  incomes	
  in	
  millions	
  of	
  low	
  paid	
  jobs	
  
•  Environmental	
  concerns	
  from	
  rapid	
  global	
  growth	
  
–  Deforesta.on,	
  water	
  scarcity,	
  carbon	
  emissions	
  
–  Global	
  public	
  bads	
  e.g.	
  risks	
  of	
  pandemics	
  
•  Increased	
  economic	
  and	
  social	
  imbalances	
  
–  Regional	
  imbalances	
  in	
  wealth	
  and	
  employment	
  
The	
  long-­‐term	
  padern	
  of	
  jobs	
  growth	
  
in	
  the	
  UK,	
  as	
  in	
  most	
  other	
  European	
  
countries,	
  has	
  resembled	
  an	
  
hourglass:	
  the	
  share	
  of	
  mid-­‐skilled	
  
jobs	
  such	
  as	
  secretaries	
  and	
  machine	
  
operators	
  has	
  been	
  squeezed	
  by	
  
technology	
  and	
  globalisa(on,	
  while	
  
the	
  share	
  of	
  low-­‐skilled	
  jobs	
  —	
  for	
  
example,	
  shop	
  assistants	
  —	
  and	
  high-­‐
skilled	
  jobs,	
  such	
  as	
  managers,	
  has	
  
expanded.	
  (Source:	
  FT,	
  Jan	
  2015)	
  
Get	
  help	
  from	
  fellow	
  
students,	
  teachers	
  and	
  
tutor2u	
  on	
  Twider:	
  
@tutor2u_econ	
  
Globalisa(on	
  and	
  the	
  UK	
  Economy	
  

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Globalisation & UK Economy 2015

  • 1. Globalisa(on  and  the  UK  Economy  
  • 3. Page  34   Globalisa.on  is  a  process  in  which  na.onal  economies   have  become  increasingly  integrated  and  inter-­‐dependent  
  • 5. Global  trade  has  grown  much  less   quickly  in  the  years  since  the  start  of   the  world  financial  crisis  in  2007-­‐08  
  • 6. Some  key  features  of  globalisa(on  
  • 7. Trade  to  GDP  ra.os  are   rising  for  most   countries   Expansion  of  Financial   Capital  Flows  between   countries   Foreign  Direct   Investment  and  Cross   Border  M&A   Rise  of  truly  global   brands  –  inc  from   emerging  countries   Deeper  specializa.on   of  labour  –   components  from   many  na.ons   Global  supply  chains  &   new  trade  and   investment  routes  
  • 8. Changing  global  trade  networks  -­‐  1995  
  • 9. Changing  global  trade  networks  -­‐  2013  
  • 10. China’s  new  economic  corridor  plan  
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Mergers  and  Acquisi(ons  Across  Borders  
  • 14.
  • 15. Nissan,  Sunderland   Cummins  Power  Genera.on,  Ramsgate   AkzoNobel,  Ashington   Siemens,  Hull   Foreign  direct  investment  into  the  UK  
  • 16. 1.  Encourages  producers  and  consumers  to  reap  benefits   from  deeper  division  of  labour  and  economies  of  scale   2.  Compe..ve  markets  reduce  monopoly  profits  and   incen.vize  businesses  to  seek  cost-­‐reducing   innova(ons     3.  Enhanced  growth  has  led  to  higher  per  capita  incomes  –   and  helped  many  of  poorest  countries  to  achieve  higher   growth  and  reduce  extreme  poverty     4.  Advantages  from  the  freer  movement  of  labour   5.  Increased  awareness  among  consumers  of  challenges   from  climate  change  and  wealth/income  inequality   Benefits  of  Globalisa(on  
  • 17. Many  of  the  effects  of  globalisa.on   are  disrup.ve  to  established   industries  and  organisa.ons  
  • 18. Poverty  Reduc(on  –  A  Major  Benefit  of  Globalisa(on  in  the  Long  Run   The  percentage  of  people  living  in  extreme  poverty  has  fallen  across  all  regions   but  progress  in  Sub-­‐Saharan  Africa  has  (un.l  recently)  been  slower   MENA:  Middle  East  and  North  Africa  
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. 1.  Growing  inequality  leading  to  poli.cal  &  social  tensions   2.  Threats  to  the  global  commons  e.g.  irreversible  damage  to   ecosystems,  land  degrada.on,  deforesta.on,  water  scarcity   3.  Macroeconomic  fragility  –  external  economic  and  financial   shocks  in  region  can  rapidly  spread  to  other  centres  ….   Systemic  risk   –  Financial  cycles  in  world  economy  are  more  vola.le  than  real   economic  cycles  –  but  strong  inter-­‐connec.ons   4.  Trade  imbalances  leading  to  calls  for  protec.onism  and  a   move  towards  countries  using  managed  exchange  rates   5.  Higher  structural  unemployment  in  countries  where   produc.on  has  shi^ed  to  lower  labour  cost  na.ons   6.  Less  cultural  diversity  as  global  brands  dominate   Disadvantages  of  Globalisa(on  
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Imbalances  between  countries   Imbalances  within  countries   Trade  imbalances  i.e.  current   account  surpluses  and  deficits   Rising  income  and  wealth   inequali.es   Unbalanced  flows  of  foreign  direct   investment  between  countries   Large  structural  differences  in   unemployment  rates   Imbalances  in  access  to  global   markets,  ideas,  health  &   educa.on   Imbalances  between  rural  and   urban  areas  /  different  regions   Globalisa(on  and  Economic  Imbalances  
  • 27.
  • 28. Imbalances  between  countries   Imbalances  within  countries   Trade  imbalances  i.e.  current   account  surpluses  and  deficits   Rising  income  and  wealth   inequali.es  within  countries   Unbalanced  flows  of  foreign  direct   investment  between  countries   Large  differences  in  structural   unemployment  rates   Imbalances  in  access  to  global   markets,  ideas,  health  &   educa.on   Imbalances  between  rural  and   urban  areas  /  different  regions   Key  Argument:  Globalisa(on  and  Imbalances   Globalisa(on  and  Economic  Imbalances  
  • 29. Financial  and  Real  Economic  Cycles  Financial  &  Economic  Instability  
  • 30. Background  on  United  Kingdom:  (Pop  64.1m)  (Data)   Recent  Macroeconomic  Data     Latest  annualised   GDP  Growth  (%)   2.6%   GDP  per  capita  (US   $,  PPP  standard)   $35,013   Infla.on  rate  (%)   0.5%   Unemployment  rate   (%  of  labour  force)   5.8%   Fiscal  balance  (%  of   GDP)   -­‐5.8%   Government  debt  (%   of  GDP)   91%   Yield  on  10-­‐Yr  Govt   Bonds  (%)   1.5%   Investment  (%  of   GDP)  in  2012   15%   Background  Informa(on   Currency  unit   £   Exchange  rate  system   float   Current  policy  interest   rate   0.5%   Trade  surplus  or  deficit?   Def   Current  account   balance  (%  of  GDP)   -­‐4.4%   Main  corporate  tax  rate   (per  cent)   21%   Global  compe..veness   ranking  for  2014     9th     Economic  Freedom   Index  Ranking   14th     Corrup.on  Percep.on   Ranking   14th     Other  Indicators   Latest  HDI  ranking     14   %  of  popula.on  living   below  their  na.onal   poverty  line   n/a   Life  Expectancy  (years)   81.5   Rank  for  capacity  to   airact  skilled  talent   5th     Rank  for  Innova.on  and   sophis.ca.on   8th     Gini  coefficient  (Latest   published  es.mate)   36.5  
  • 31. Financial  and  Real  Economic  Cycles  Does  Britain  benefit  from  Globalisa(on?   •  Benefits  from  trade  crea(on   –  Compara.ve  advantage  and  economic  efficiency   –  Impor.ng  cheaper  products  /  technology   –  Exports  as  a  source  of  growth  /  economies  of  scale   •  Increased  contestability  of  domes(c  markets   •  Freer  flow  of  labour  –  the  global  baile  for  talent   –  Skilled  immigra.on  /  inflows  of  human  capital   –  Unemployment  has  been  falling  –  now  below  6%   •  Investment  opportuni(es  for  Bri.sh  businesses   –  Inward  FDI  into  the  UK  (a  source  of  jobs  and  capital)   –  Overseas  investment  by  UK  businesses  (adds  to  GNI)  
  • 32. Financial  and  Real  Economic  Cycles  Costs  of  Globalisa(on  for  Britain   •  Higher  structural  unemployment  and  more  low  paid  jobs   –  E.g.  loss  of  manufacturing  output  and  jobs  to  lower  labour  cost  centres   –  Hollowing-­‐Out:  Rise  of  lower-­‐skilled  jobs  offering  below  average  pay   •  Increased  exposure  to  external  economic  shocks   –  Increased  inter-­‐dependence  and  fragile  global  supply-­‐chains   •  Risks  of  widening  income  and  wealth  inequality   –  Higher-­‐skilled  jobs  get  a  dispropor.onate  reward   –  Downward  dri^  of  real  incomes  in  millions  of  low  paid  jobs   •  Environmental  concerns  from  rapid  global  growth   –  Deforesta.on,  water  scarcity,  carbon  emissions   –  Global  public  bads  e.g.  risks  of  pandemics   •  Increased  economic  and  social  imbalances   –  Regional  imbalances  in  wealth  and  employment  
  • 33. The  long-­‐term  padern  of  jobs  growth   in  the  UK,  as  in  most  other  European   countries,  has  resembled  an   hourglass:  the  share  of  mid-­‐skilled   jobs  such  as  secretaries  and  machine   operators  has  been  squeezed  by   technology  and  globalisa(on,  while   the  share  of  low-­‐skilled  jobs  —  for   example,  shop  assistants  —  and  high-­‐ skilled  jobs,  such  as  managers,  has   expanded.  (Source:  FT,  Jan  2015)  
  • 34. Get  help  from  fellow   students,  teachers  and   tutor2u  on  Twider:   @tutor2u_econ  
  • 35. Globalisa(on  and  the  UK  Economy