A 2-day workshop hosted by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security www.ccafs.cgiar.org from 13-14 November, Warsaw, Poland brought together 37 representatives from 10 different countries across Asia, Africa and Latin America to share their lessons and experiences in developing climate adaptation plans for the agriculture sector. For more information see: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture http://ow.ly/qSO1R New report highlights lessons from national adaptation planning http://ow.ly/qSO2y

1. World Bank: Economics of Impacts
of Climate Change (EACC) in Ethiopia
Gabrielle Kissinger
Session: Economic impact of climate risk
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and agriculture: A learning workshop
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
13 - 14 November 2013, Warsaw, Poland

2. Overview of World Bank EACC*
• Seven country case studies as part of
global study on adaptation costs
• Based on national data, disaggregated
to more local and sector levels
• Compare a no-climate change baseline
(counterfactual) that reflects existing
development plans with climate change
scenarios.
* World Bank (2010). Ethiopia - Economics of adaptation to climate change. Vol. 1. World
Bank, Washington D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/
en/2010/01/16279299/economics-adaptation-climate-change-ethiopia

3. Ethiopia EACC
• Baseline: ambitious investment
program in dams, hydropower
development, irrigation, water
management, and road building
• Economy-wide impacts of climate
change: Computable general
equilibrium (CGE) model.

4. Ethiopia EACC
• Results: GDP losses are significant but diverse
across scenarios, highlighting the high degree of
vulnerability of Ethiopian agriculture and
infrastructure to future climate shocks

5. Ethiopia EACC

6. Ethiopia EACC
• Agriculture

7. Ethiopia EACC
Agric: Changes in crop yields given increasing municipal and
industrial and irrigation demands

8. Ethiopia EACC
Inter-sectoral analysis (agriculture, roads and
hydropower) under climate change scenarios:
• Agriculture at greater risk than hydropower.
• If priority given to hydropower, up to a
billion cubic meters of water might be taken
away from irrigated agriculture, causing a
30–40% yield drop across 250,000 hectares
that would be forced to revert to rainfed
conditions.

9. Key findings:
 Adaptation investments reduce, but do not completely
eliminate, economic losses under adaptation scenarios; that gains in
economic well-being can be achieved at relatively low cost; and that
adaptation lowers income variability.
 The economic benefits of the adaptation strategy are significantly larger
than the project-level costs of implementing it, resulting in benefit/cost
ratios ranging from 5 to over 13.
 Adaptation restores the variability of agriculture GDP growth close to the
baseline scenario.
 Due to the uncertainty of the future climate, a risk-based investment
planning approach is recommended and robust decision-making
principles are needed to minimise the “regrets” of climate-sensitive
decisions (for instance, building costly dams may not be necessary under
‘wet’ climate change scenarios, but improved transport infrastructure is
a sound investment under all scenarios).