The document discusses an S-curve model that relates per-capita income to insurance penetration. It finds:
1) Estimating life and non-life insurance penetration globally yields an S-curve, where income elasticity starts and ends at 1 but exceeds 1 at intermediate income levels.
2) For life insurance, the income at maximum elasticity is $15,000, while for non-life it is $10,000.
3) Using purchasing power parities rather than market exchange rates increases estimated penetration levels and elasticities for developing countries.
The document discusses sovereign debt crises over 40 years involving 126 countries from 1970 to 2007. It finds that the unconditional probability of a country experiencing a debt crisis in a given year is 37%, but this is reduced to 24% after excluding "serial defaulters" and to 7% with a new definition of debt crises that avoids counting consecutive years as separate crises. Key determinants of debt crises are found to be debt/GDP, debt service/exports, GDP per capita, governance quality, and global financial conditions. The Greek debt crisis of 2009-2010 is examined as a case study.
The document discusses sovereign debt crises, focusing on Latin America in the 1980s, Africa's "two lost decades", and the 2009 Asian and European crises. It analyzes debt crises data from 1970-2007 for 126 countries, finding that on average a country experiences debt distress about a third of the time. However, this is reduced to 7% when accounting for prolonged crises. Key risk factors for debt distress are found to be high debt/GDP, debt service levels, low GDP per capita, weak governance, and global financial shocks. The Greek crisis of 2009-2010 is examined as a case study.
This document discusses the natural rate of unemployment and its causes. It begins by defining the natural rate of unemployment as the average rate around which the actual unemployment rate fluctuates over the business cycle. It then presents a model showing how the natural rate is determined by the rates of job separation and job finding. Frictional unemployment results from the time it takes to search for and transition between jobs, while structural unemployment stems from wage rigidities that prevent wages from adjusting downward to clear the labor market. The document explores factors like minimum wages, unions, efficiency wages, and sectoral shifts that contribute to real wage rigidity and the natural rate of unemployment.
1) The chapter uses the IS-LM model to analyze the effects of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on aggregate output and the interest rate in the short run.
2) Fiscal policy like increases in government spending or tax cuts shift the IS curve right, raising output. Monetary policy like increases in the money supply shift the LM curve down, lowering interest rates and raising output.
3) Shocks like increases in wealth from a stock market boom shift the IS curve right, raising output, while shocks that increase money demand like credit card fraud shift the LM curve left, lowering output.
4) In the long run, price adjustments return output to potential as the price level falls to accommodate any short
This document summarizes key points from a chapter about government debt. It discusses several topics:
1. The size of government debt in various countries, with Japan having the highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 159% and the U.S. at 64%.
2. Traditional and Ricardian views on the effects of government debt. The traditional view is that debt crowds out investment, while the Ricardian view is that debt has no real effects due to forward-looking consumers.
3. Problems in measuring budget deficits, such as not accounting for inflation, capital assets, or future liabilities for programs like Social Security. Correcting for these issues can significantly change deficit estimates.
Policymakers debate whether monetary and fiscal policy should be active or passive in response to economic fluctuations, and whether policy should be set by rule or at the discretion of officials. Arguments for active policy include reducing economic hardship during recessions, while critics argue policies have long and variable lags. Policy rules aim to increase credibility and reduce time inconsistency problems, like central banks targeting an inflation rate or following the Taylor rule. The optimal approach remains an open debate among economists.
This document provides an overview of classical theories of inflation and the quantity theory of money. It defines key concepts like money, inflation, the money supply, and velocity. The quantity theory of money posits that inflation is primarily caused by increases in the money supply that outpace economic growth. It predicts a direct relationship between money growth and inflation. The document uses graphs and international data to show this relationship generally holds in practice and discusses implications for interest rates.
HLEG thematic workshop on measuring economic, social and environmental resili...StatsCommunications
HLEG thematic workshop on Measuring economic, social and environmental resilience, 25-26 November 2015, Rome, Italy, More information at: http://oe.cd/StrategicForum2015
The document discusses sovereign debt crises over 40 years involving 126 countries from 1970 to 2007. It finds that the unconditional probability of a country experiencing a debt crisis in a given year is 37%, but this is reduced to 24% after excluding "serial defaulters" and to 7% with a new definition of debt crises that avoids counting consecutive years as separate crises. Key determinants of debt crises are found to be debt/GDP, debt service/exports, GDP per capita, governance quality, and global financial conditions. The Greek debt crisis of 2009-2010 is examined as a case study.
The document discusses sovereign debt crises, focusing on Latin America in the 1980s, Africa's "two lost decades", and the 2009 Asian and European crises. It analyzes debt crises data from 1970-2007 for 126 countries, finding that on average a country experiences debt distress about a third of the time. However, this is reduced to 7% when accounting for prolonged crises. Key risk factors for debt distress are found to be high debt/GDP, debt service levels, low GDP per capita, weak governance, and global financial shocks. The Greek crisis of 2009-2010 is examined as a case study.
This document discusses the natural rate of unemployment and its causes. It begins by defining the natural rate of unemployment as the average rate around which the actual unemployment rate fluctuates over the business cycle. It then presents a model showing how the natural rate is determined by the rates of job separation and job finding. Frictional unemployment results from the time it takes to search for and transition between jobs, while structural unemployment stems from wage rigidities that prevent wages from adjusting downward to clear the labor market. The document explores factors like minimum wages, unions, efficiency wages, and sectoral shifts that contribute to real wage rigidity and the natural rate of unemployment.
1) The chapter uses the IS-LM model to analyze the effects of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on aggregate output and the interest rate in the short run.
2) Fiscal policy like increases in government spending or tax cuts shift the IS curve right, raising output. Monetary policy like increases in the money supply shift the LM curve down, lowering interest rates and raising output.
3) Shocks like increases in wealth from a stock market boom shift the IS curve right, raising output, while shocks that increase money demand like credit card fraud shift the LM curve left, lowering output.
4) In the long run, price adjustments return output to potential as the price level falls to accommodate any short
This document summarizes key points from a chapter about government debt. It discusses several topics:
1. The size of government debt in various countries, with Japan having the highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 159% and the U.S. at 64%.
2. Traditional and Ricardian views on the effects of government debt. The traditional view is that debt crowds out investment, while the Ricardian view is that debt has no real effects due to forward-looking consumers.
3. Problems in measuring budget deficits, such as not accounting for inflation, capital assets, or future liabilities for programs like Social Security. Correcting for these issues can significantly change deficit estimates.
Policymakers debate whether monetary and fiscal policy should be active or passive in response to economic fluctuations, and whether policy should be set by rule or at the discretion of officials. Arguments for active policy include reducing economic hardship during recessions, while critics argue policies have long and variable lags. Policy rules aim to increase credibility and reduce time inconsistency problems, like central banks targeting an inflation rate or following the Taylor rule. The optimal approach remains an open debate among economists.
This document provides an overview of classical theories of inflation and the quantity theory of money. It defines key concepts like money, inflation, the money supply, and velocity. The quantity theory of money posits that inflation is primarily caused by increases in the money supply that outpace economic growth. It predicts a direct relationship between money growth and inflation. The document uses graphs and international data to show this relationship generally holds in practice and discusses implications for interest rates.
HLEG thematic workshop on measuring economic, social and environmental resili...StatsCommunications
HLEG thematic workshop on Measuring economic, social and environmental resilience, 25-26 November 2015, Rome, Italy, More information at: http://oe.cd/StrategicForum2015
This document provides an overview of key concepts relating to money supply and money demand from Chapter 18 of Mankiw's Macroeconomics textbook. It discusses how fractional-reserve banking allows banks to create money by lending out deposits. It also examines the three tools the Federal Reserve uses to control the money supply and explains why the Fed cannot precisely control the money supply. Finally, it summarizes theories of money demand, including a portfolio theory and the Baumol-Tobin transactions model.
This document provides an overview of key macroeconomic statistics including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the unemployment rate. It discusses how GDP can be measured through expenditures, income, and value added. The components of GDP expenditures are defined as consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. Real GDP is introduced to control for inflation. The GDP deflator and inflation rates are also explained.
Inflation targeting misfiring on development of housing market bubbleLondonMet PGR Students
1) Keeping interest rates too low from 2002-2004 despite rising inflation contributed to the growth of the housing market bubble as it encouraged excessive borrowing.
2) Then sharply raising rates from 2004-2006 may have triggered the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007.
3) The combination of higher rates and high debt levels had a devastating effect as borrowers could no longer afford their mortgage payments, leading to a collapse in demand, falling GDP, and bankruptcies.
The document discusses the IS-LM model for macroeconomic analysis. It includes figures and explanations of the relationship between interest rates, income, money demand, and money supply. Equilibrium in the goods market and money market is achieved at the intersection of the IS and LM curves. A change in one variable like money supply will shift the curves and result in a new equilibrium point with different interest rate and income levels.
1. The IS-LM model shows macroeconomic equilibrium through the intersection of the investment-savings (IS) curve and the liquidity-money (LM) curve.
2. Fiscal and monetary policy can shift the IS and LM curves, impacting equilibrium income and interest rates. Expansionary fiscal policy shifts IS right, while contractionary shifts it left. Expansionary monetary policy shifts LM right, while contractionary shifts it left.
3. The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy can be undermined by crowding out or a liquidity trap. When money demand is very sensitive to interest rates, fiscal policy expansion may be offset by rising rates. Monetary policy is ineffective in a liquidity trap
This chapter discusses two modern theories of business cycles:
1) Real Business Cycle theory assumes flexible prices and that fluctuations result from optimal responses to productivity shocks.
2) New Keynesian theory explains why prices and wages are sticky in the short-run, causing recessions as coordination failures when firms do not lower prices together. It incorporates insights from both schools to better understand economic fluctuations.
This document summarizes key concepts about inflation from Chapter 8 of an economics textbook. It defines inflation and discusses the quantity theory of money, explaining how the money supply, velocity of money, and nominal GDP are related. It also covers the relationship between real and nominal interest rates using the Fisher equation. The document discusses the costs of inflation and how fiscal policy and large government deficits can contribute to higher inflation, especially if a central bank lacks independence. It provides examples of hyperinflation and analyzes the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for December 2011. It discusses the ongoing debt crisis in the Eurozone and whether the Euro will survive. It notes the ideological differences between Germany and other countries in their approaches to dealing with the crisis. Domestically, it comments on the reversal in stance by the Indian opposition on retail FDI and the potential impact on economic momentum. Inflation is expected to fall by the end of the fiscal year. The outlook is cautiously positive on long-term debt as interest rates may fall over the next 2-3 years.
European Government Bond Correlation Dynamics: Taming Contagion RisksPeter Schwendner
The document analyzes the dynamics of European government bond yields and correlations between countries from 2004-2015. It finds that bond yield correlations increased during the Eurozone crisis but have since stabilized, with positive correlations mainly between core countries and negative correlations between core and peripheral countries. A filtered partial correlation method is used to analyze dominant influences between bond markets while filtering out noise. Case studies on the Greek debt crisis find that negotiations implied increasing contagion risks beyond just Greece.
1. The document discusses the IS-LM model and how it can be used to analyze the effects of fiscal and monetary policy. It presents the IS and LM curves and how they represent equilibrium in the goods and money markets.
2. Fiscal policy like increases in government spending can shift the IS curve right, raising output and interest rates. Monetary policy like increases in the money supply can shift the LM curve down, lowering interest rates and raising output.
3. Shocks to aggregate demand are analyzed using the IS-LM model, and the model can also show the transition from short-run to long-run equilibrium when prices adjust over time.
This document summarizes key topics from a chapter on labor markets, including:
1) It describes the U.S. labor market trends of rising wages, employment-population ratios, and unemployment rates over time.
2) It explains the basic supply and demand model of the labor market and how taxes, regulations, and wage rigidities can create distortions.
3) It discusses different types of unemployment and the "bathtub model" for how employment and unemployment levels change over time.
4) It provides an overview of international labor market comparisons and differences between the U.S., Europe, and Japan.
5) It covers concepts of valuing human capital using present discounted values and explains the rising return
This document summarizes key concepts from a chapter on measuring macroeconomic indicators like GDP. It discusses three methods for calculating GDP - production, expenditure, and income - and how they provide identical measures. It also explains how GDP is measured over time using nominal and real GDP, and different price indexes like Laspeyres, Paasche, and chain-weighting which is preferred. Real GDP growth rates and inflation rates are calculated using these concepts.
This document provides an overview of long-run economic growth by covering several topics:
1) Growth has dramatically improved living standards recently but this is a new phenomenon historically. Per capita GDP differs greatly around the world.
2) Sustained growth first emerged in different places and times, leading to a "Great Divergence" where countries now differ in per capita GDP by a factor of 50.
3) Modern economic growth is defined as growth in per capita GDP, which can be used to predict future output levels based on growth rates.
This document discusses the Great Recession and policy responses to the financial crisis. It introduces financial considerations like a risk premium into the short-run model to understand the crisis. A rising risk premium interfered with monetary policy and shifted the AD curve down. This led to deflation concerns. Policy responses included unconventional monetary policy by expanding the Fed's balance sheet, fiscal stimulus, and the TARP program. Financial reform aimed to prevent future crises and address issues like moral hazard.
Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole, including issues like growth, inflation, and unemployment. Economists use models to help explain and address these issues. Models make simplifying assumptions, like whether prices are flexible or sticky in the short-run. The chapter introduces concepts like endogenous and exogenous variables. It provides an example model of supply and demand for cars and how it can be used to analyze changes. The chapter outlines the topics that will be covered in the macroeconomics textbook, including classical theory, growth theory, and business cycle theory.
Consensus real GDP forecasts see contraction in the US and major trading partners in 2009. Typically fast-growing Asian economies are also expected to have lower growth. Employment is expected to continue falling in 2009. Housing prices may have reached a level more in line with long-term trends after weakening. Spending as a percentage of income is likely to fall through 2009 and beyond.
This document summarizes the Mundell-Fleming model, which analyzes how fiscal, monetary, and trade policies affect aggregate demand in a small open economy. The model shows that under floating exchange rates, fiscal policy has no effect on output, while monetary policy shifts demand between domestic and foreign goods. Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy impacts output while monetary policy does not. Trade restrictions can boost domestic output under fixed but not floating rates. The document also discusses interest rate differentials and currency crises using Mexico's 1994 peso crisis as a case study.
The document provides documentation and a tutorial for implementing an S-curve motion profile in a MyoStat Motion Control system. An S-curve allows for smooth acceleration and deceleration during motion to prevent damage. The K69 parameter controls the S-curve function, with higher values creating a more pronounced curve. The tutorial instructs the user to set parameters, collect speed data, and graph results at different K69 values to observe the S-curve motion profile.
This document discusses technology S-curves and their implications for renewable energy alternatives. It finds that both wind and geothermal energy are poised to become more economical than fossil fuels relatively soon based on historical data. Government R&D funding has been lower for wind and geothermal compared to solar, and funding for fossil fuels may be excessive given their diminishing performance. Analyzing renewable technologies through an S-curve lens provides insights not found using other approaches and has implications for future government and industry investment decisions.
This document discusses three frameworks used by Gartner Group to analyze information systems research: the technology maturity curve, adoption curve, and identification of strategic technologies. The maturity curve tracks how a technology matures over time through various stages from embryonic to obsolescence. The adoption curve shows how technologies are adopted cumulatively by organizations over time. Considering where technologies fall on these curves can provide insights into appropriate research questions and methodologies. Identifying strategic technologies may help determine promising areas for new research.
This document provides an overview of key concepts relating to money supply and money demand from Chapter 18 of Mankiw's Macroeconomics textbook. It discusses how fractional-reserve banking allows banks to create money by lending out deposits. It also examines the three tools the Federal Reserve uses to control the money supply and explains why the Fed cannot precisely control the money supply. Finally, it summarizes theories of money demand, including a portfolio theory and the Baumol-Tobin transactions model.
This document provides an overview of key macroeconomic statistics including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the unemployment rate. It discusses how GDP can be measured through expenditures, income, and value added. The components of GDP expenditures are defined as consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. Real GDP is introduced to control for inflation. The GDP deflator and inflation rates are also explained.
Inflation targeting misfiring on development of housing market bubbleLondonMet PGR Students
1) Keeping interest rates too low from 2002-2004 despite rising inflation contributed to the growth of the housing market bubble as it encouraged excessive borrowing.
2) Then sharply raising rates from 2004-2006 may have triggered the bursting of the housing bubble in 2007.
3) The combination of higher rates and high debt levels had a devastating effect as borrowers could no longer afford their mortgage payments, leading to a collapse in demand, falling GDP, and bankruptcies.
The document discusses the IS-LM model for macroeconomic analysis. It includes figures and explanations of the relationship between interest rates, income, money demand, and money supply. Equilibrium in the goods market and money market is achieved at the intersection of the IS and LM curves. A change in one variable like money supply will shift the curves and result in a new equilibrium point with different interest rate and income levels.
1. The IS-LM model shows macroeconomic equilibrium through the intersection of the investment-savings (IS) curve and the liquidity-money (LM) curve.
2. Fiscal and monetary policy can shift the IS and LM curves, impacting equilibrium income and interest rates. Expansionary fiscal policy shifts IS right, while contractionary shifts it left. Expansionary monetary policy shifts LM right, while contractionary shifts it left.
3. The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy can be undermined by crowding out or a liquidity trap. When money demand is very sensitive to interest rates, fiscal policy expansion may be offset by rising rates. Monetary policy is ineffective in a liquidity trap
This chapter discusses two modern theories of business cycles:
1) Real Business Cycle theory assumes flexible prices and that fluctuations result from optimal responses to productivity shocks.
2) New Keynesian theory explains why prices and wages are sticky in the short-run, causing recessions as coordination failures when firms do not lower prices together. It incorporates insights from both schools to better understand economic fluctuations.
This document summarizes key concepts about inflation from Chapter 8 of an economics textbook. It defines inflation and discusses the quantity theory of money, explaining how the money supply, velocity of money, and nominal GDP are related. It also covers the relationship between real and nominal interest rates using the Fisher equation. The document discusses the costs of inflation and how fiscal policy and large government deficits can contribute to higher inflation, especially if a central bank lacks independence. It provides examples of hyperinflation and analyzes the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for December 2011. It discusses the ongoing debt crisis in the Eurozone and whether the Euro will survive. It notes the ideological differences between Germany and other countries in their approaches to dealing with the crisis. Domestically, it comments on the reversal in stance by the Indian opposition on retail FDI and the potential impact on economic momentum. Inflation is expected to fall by the end of the fiscal year. The outlook is cautiously positive on long-term debt as interest rates may fall over the next 2-3 years.
European Government Bond Correlation Dynamics: Taming Contagion RisksPeter Schwendner
The document analyzes the dynamics of European government bond yields and correlations between countries from 2004-2015. It finds that bond yield correlations increased during the Eurozone crisis but have since stabilized, with positive correlations mainly between core countries and negative correlations between core and peripheral countries. A filtered partial correlation method is used to analyze dominant influences between bond markets while filtering out noise. Case studies on the Greek debt crisis find that negotiations implied increasing contagion risks beyond just Greece.
1. The document discusses the IS-LM model and how it can be used to analyze the effects of fiscal and monetary policy. It presents the IS and LM curves and how they represent equilibrium in the goods and money markets.
2. Fiscal policy like increases in government spending can shift the IS curve right, raising output and interest rates. Monetary policy like increases in the money supply can shift the LM curve down, lowering interest rates and raising output.
3. Shocks to aggregate demand are analyzed using the IS-LM model, and the model can also show the transition from short-run to long-run equilibrium when prices adjust over time.
This document summarizes key topics from a chapter on labor markets, including:
1) It describes the U.S. labor market trends of rising wages, employment-population ratios, and unemployment rates over time.
2) It explains the basic supply and demand model of the labor market and how taxes, regulations, and wage rigidities can create distortions.
3) It discusses different types of unemployment and the "bathtub model" for how employment and unemployment levels change over time.
4) It provides an overview of international labor market comparisons and differences between the U.S., Europe, and Japan.
5) It covers concepts of valuing human capital using present discounted values and explains the rising return
This document summarizes key concepts from a chapter on measuring macroeconomic indicators like GDP. It discusses three methods for calculating GDP - production, expenditure, and income - and how they provide identical measures. It also explains how GDP is measured over time using nominal and real GDP, and different price indexes like Laspeyres, Paasche, and chain-weighting which is preferred. Real GDP growth rates and inflation rates are calculated using these concepts.
This document provides an overview of long-run economic growth by covering several topics:
1) Growth has dramatically improved living standards recently but this is a new phenomenon historically. Per capita GDP differs greatly around the world.
2) Sustained growth first emerged in different places and times, leading to a "Great Divergence" where countries now differ in per capita GDP by a factor of 50.
3) Modern economic growth is defined as growth in per capita GDP, which can be used to predict future output levels based on growth rates.
This document discusses the Great Recession and policy responses to the financial crisis. It introduces financial considerations like a risk premium into the short-run model to understand the crisis. A rising risk premium interfered with monetary policy and shifted the AD curve down. This led to deflation concerns. Policy responses included unconventional monetary policy by expanding the Fed's balance sheet, fiscal stimulus, and the TARP program. Financial reform aimed to prevent future crises and address issues like moral hazard.
Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole, including issues like growth, inflation, and unemployment. Economists use models to help explain and address these issues. Models make simplifying assumptions, like whether prices are flexible or sticky in the short-run. The chapter introduces concepts like endogenous and exogenous variables. It provides an example model of supply and demand for cars and how it can be used to analyze changes. The chapter outlines the topics that will be covered in the macroeconomics textbook, including classical theory, growth theory, and business cycle theory.
Consensus real GDP forecasts see contraction in the US and major trading partners in 2009. Typically fast-growing Asian economies are also expected to have lower growth. Employment is expected to continue falling in 2009. Housing prices may have reached a level more in line with long-term trends after weakening. Spending as a percentage of income is likely to fall through 2009 and beyond.
This document summarizes the Mundell-Fleming model, which analyzes how fiscal, monetary, and trade policies affect aggregate demand in a small open economy. The model shows that under floating exchange rates, fiscal policy has no effect on output, while monetary policy shifts demand between domestic and foreign goods. Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy impacts output while monetary policy does not. Trade restrictions can boost domestic output under fixed but not floating rates. The document also discusses interest rate differentials and currency crises using Mexico's 1994 peso crisis as a case study.
The document provides documentation and a tutorial for implementing an S-curve motion profile in a MyoStat Motion Control system. An S-curve allows for smooth acceleration and deceleration during motion to prevent damage. The K69 parameter controls the S-curve function, with higher values creating a more pronounced curve. The tutorial instructs the user to set parameters, collect speed data, and graph results at different K69 values to observe the S-curve motion profile.
This document discusses technology S-curves and their implications for renewable energy alternatives. It finds that both wind and geothermal energy are poised to become more economical than fossil fuels relatively soon based on historical data. Government R&D funding has been lower for wind and geothermal compared to solar, and funding for fossil fuels may be excessive given their diminishing performance. Analyzing renewable technologies through an S-curve lens provides insights not found using other approaches and has implications for future government and industry investment decisions.
This document discusses three frameworks used by Gartner Group to analyze information systems research: the technology maturity curve, adoption curve, and identification of strategic technologies. The maturity curve tracks how a technology matures over time through various stages from embryonic to obsolescence. The adoption curve shows how technologies are adopted cumulatively by organizations over time. Considering where technologies fall on these curves can provide insights into appropriate research questions and methodologies. Identifying strategic technologies may help determine promising areas for new research.
This document discusses the application of S-shaped curves, also known as logistic curves or S-curves, to model the evolution of systems over time. It provides background on the origin and development of S-curves as models of growth. S-curves have been widely used across many domains to describe trends like population growth, market penetration of new technologies, and diffusion of innovations. The document reviews several examples of S-curve applications and discusses their use in areas like technological forecasting and TRIZ problem solving. It argues that S-curves provide forecasting power because growth is ultimately limited by scarce resources based on mathematical concepts like Verhulst's logistic growth equation.
1) The document discusses the application of S-shaped logistic growth curves to model and forecast technological trends over time.
2) It specifically fits a logistic curve to data on annual TRIZ publications from 1996-2006 to illustrate the three parameters (κ, α, β) of the simple logistic model.
3) The ceiling parameter κ represents the expected maximum number of future publications, the growth period parameters α and β specify the linear-like growth phase, and tm indicates the midpoint time of the symmetric S-curve.
This document describes proposed changes to improve a model for estimating project S-curves based on project attributes and conditions. The key changes are:
1. Changing the model outputs from the polynomial function's parameters (a, b) to the inflection point position (p) and slope (s), which better indicate schedule performance.
2. Adding two new input factors - project difficulty and participant competence - to capture schedule influences beyond basic attributes like cost and duration.
3. Using fuzzy inference systems instead of neural networks to build transparent input-output relationships from historical project data, applying fuzzy clustering and hybrid training.
The goal is to develop a model that more accurately predicts project progress curves by incorporating schedule performance indicators
This document describes proposed changes to improve a model for estimating project S-curves based on project attributes and conditions. The key changes are:
1. Changing the model outputs from the polynomial function's parameters (a, b) to the inflection point position (p) and slope (s), which better indicate schedule performance.
2. Adding two new input factors - project difficulty and participant competence - to capture schedule influences beyond basic attributes like cost and duration.
3. Using fuzzy inference systems instead of neural networks to build transparent input-output relationships from historical project data, applying fuzzy clustering and hybrid training.
The goal is to develop a model that more accurately predicts project progress curves by incorporating schedule performance indicators
Tinjauan pustaka membahas konsep-konsep dasar listrik seperti arus listrik, tegangan, hambatan, hukum Ohm, dan pengukuran parameter listrik menggunakan alat pengukur seperti voltmeter dan amperemeter. Dibahas pula jenis-jenis resistor dan susunan resistor dalam rangkaian listrik.
The document provides documentation and a tutorial for implementing an S-curve motion profile in a MyoStat Motion Control system. An S-curve allows for smooth acceleration and deceleration during motion to prevent damage. The K69 parameter controls the S-curve function, with higher values creating a more pronounced curve. The tutorial instructs the user to set parameters, collect speed data, and graph results at different K69 values to observe the S-curve motion profile.
Ringkasan dokumen tersebut adalah:
1) Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang konsep dan teori kemiskinan menurut pandangan Islam dan model-model kemiskinan.
2) Pendidikan dianggap sebagai kebutuhan dasar manusia menurut model kebutuhan Galtung.
3) Terdapat berbagai faktor yang dapat menyebabkan terperangkapnya seseorang dalam kemiskinan seperti rendahnya pendidikan dan kesehatan.
The document discusses S curves, which are graphs of cumulative quantities like man-hours or costs plotted against time. It describes different types of S curves including baseline, target, and actual S curves. Baseline S curves show planned progress, target S curves show expected progress if tasks are completed as scheduled, and actual S curves show progress to date based on percentage completion. The document also discusses how to interpret and generate different types of S curves to analyze project schedule performance, progress, slippage, and other metrics.
It is a recent development in the field of Computer science, used to encode information within an abstract picture.Even though it provides same level of security as the bar codes, it ensures encoding of more amount of data as compared to the traditional ways of encoding.
The document is the 2015 World Insurance Report which analyzes the performance of the global non-life insurance industry.
Chapter 1 finds that non-life insurers in most markets demonstrated improved underwriting performance in 2013 aided by a significant drop in claims expenses globally. While premium volumes grew 3.3% overall, emerging markets saw robust growth while developed markets faced challenges increasing volumes. Underwriting ratios improved in most countries due to lower claims costs, though operating and acquisition ratios were more resistant to change.
World Insurance Report 2015 from Capgemini and EfmaCapgemini
The World Insurance Report 2015 from Capgemini and Efma analyzes the major disruptions Insurers of the Future are likely to face, including: changing demographics, evolving customer demands, technology advancements, and increasing competition and the impact they may have on current business models. Built from Capgemini’s Insurer Capability Maturity Framework, and insights from 165 senior executive interviews, the report maps both current and desired Insurer maturity levels across seven key capabilities and provides a transformation roadmap for insurers to overcome those disruptors.
Featuring data from over 15,500 customers globally, Capgemini’s exclusive Customer Experience Index (CEI) highlights the alarming drop in positive experience levels, driven by Gen Y customers’ high digital expectations, and their detrimental impact on firm revenues. Addressing both life and non-life segments, the World Insurance Report 2015 covers 30 insurance markets across North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific.
The Links between Fiscal and Monetary Policydirkehnts
The document discusses the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy. It argues that traditional IS/LM models show a dichotomy between the two policies that is not accurate. More recent evidence from the eurozone shows there is no clear positive correlation between fiscal and monetary policies as assumed by IS/LM models. The document explores how fiscal and monetary policies are actually linked through their effects on aggregate demand, the banking system, and private sector balance sheets.
Asian insurance, pensions, and wealth management undergo rapid change, what a...Varun Mittal
What are the key trends changing the insurance, pensions, and wealth management industries in Asia?
And how can companies best capture growth?
These topics were among those discussed at the recent Singapore FinTech Festival (SFF). Since its
inception in 2016, SFF has become the premier platform for the global fintech community to engage,
connect, and collaborate on issues relating to the confluence of financial services, public policy, and
technology. SFF attracted 62,000 participants from over 115 countries—the largest SFF gathering ever.
It featured 850 speakers, 570 exhibitors, including 25 country pavilions, and over 4,000 meeting
through the business matching platform.
With inflation persisting and growth slowing, many fintech firms are trying to remain viable. With that
background, three key themes emerged at SFF that hold opportunities for insurance companies in Asia.
First, we discussed how risks for the current generation have changed, creating new paths of growth
as technology spreads across all sectors and functions in the insurance industry. The changing
behavior of consumers triggers new opportunities by demanding unconventional ways of redefining
customer relationships.
Second, a widening pension gap caused by an aging population, the rise of self-employment, and the
gig economy offers opportunities. We foresee that people caught in this gap could succumb to further
risks raised by rising inflation, longer lifespans, and the rising cost of healthcare. Further, we discussed
micro-pensions and micro-investments and how they would take off in the coming years.
Third, Asia’s financial wealth stands at $180.6 trillion as of 2021, or roughly 40% of global wealth, and
we expect continued growth. This causes more customers to get serious about financial planning. We
also discussed approaches to reaching Generation Y and Z customers who require an omnichannel
experience to maintain high engagement.
We also had pragmatic discussions around artificial intelligence (AI) and embedded insurance. AI is still
nascent, with regulators constantly figuring out how AI and machine learning play a role in insurance.
Embedded insurance, meanwhile, needs to work seamlessly in the customer journey.
This report covers the three main megatrends to watch in the landscape of Asia’s life and health insurance,
as well as the key imperatives insurers should take to capture the significant opportunities in the market.
The Role of Insurance in the Economy of the Republic of North Macedoniaijtsrd
1. The document examines the role of insurance in the economy of North Macedonia. It analyzes the relationship between insurance development and GDP over the period 2008-2018.
2. There is a high correlation between life insurance premiums as a percentage of GDP and GDP per capita. However, there is no significant relationship between non-life insurance premiums as a percentage of GDP and GDP per capita.
3. The results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in life insurance premiums as a share of GDP is associated with a 191.55 USD increase in GDP per capita. In contrast, a 1 percentage point increase in non-life insurance premiums as a share of GDP is associated with a 35.85
The document summarizes a study that finds the historically large difference between average returns on equity and short-term debt cannot be accounted for by standard economic models without frictions. Over 1889-1978, average annual equity returns were around 7% compared to less than 1% for short-term debt. The authors analyze economies where consumption growth follows observed US patterns but find such models cannot simultaneously generate the high equity returns and low risk-free returns observed in the data. They conclude a model allowing some market friction is needed to explain the "equity premium puzzle".
Compute the inflation rate for each year 1993-201 2 and determ.docxmaxinesmith73660
Compute the inflation rate for each year 1993-201 2 and determine
which were years of inflation. ln which years did deflation occuP ln
which years did disinflation occur? Was tirere hyperinflation in any yeaf
* (Sources of tnflation)Usingthe concepts of aggregate supply and ag-
gregate demand, explain why inflation usually increases during wartime.
s. (nftatiln and lnterest Rates) Using a demand-supply diagram
for loanable funds (like the exhibit below), show what happens
to the nominal interest rate and the equilibrium quantity of loans
when both bonowers and lenders increase their estimates of the
expected inflation rate from 5 percent to 1 0 percent.
The Market for Loanable Funds
Loanable funds per period
7-4 Explain how unanticipated inflation harms
some individuals and harms the economy
as a whole
10, (AnticipatedVersus Unanticipated lnflation) lf actual inflation ex-
ceeds anticipated inflation, who will lose purchasing power and who
will gain? How does unanticipated inflation harm the economy?
GHAPTER 8
8-1 Describe how we measure labor
productivity, and explain why is it
important for a nation's standard of living
(Measuring Labor Productivily) How do we measure labor productivitf
How do changes in labor productivity affect the U.S. standard of living?
(Growth and the PPF) Use the production possibilities frontier (PPD
to demonstrate economic growth.
a. With consumption goods on one axis and capital goods on the
other, show how the combination of goods selected this period
affects the PPF in the next period.
b. Extend this comparison by choosing a different point on this
period's PPF and determining whether that combination leads to
more or less growth over the next period.
(Shifts in the PPflferrorist attacks foster instability and may affect
productivity over the short and long term. Do you think the
September 1 l, 2001, terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center
and the Pentagon affected short- and/or longterm productivity in
the United States? Explain your response and show any move-
ments in the PPF.
o
o
o
o
o
.Ei
o
c
c
oz
33O PROBLEMS APPENDIX
8-2 Summarize the history of U.S.labor
productivity changes since World War II
and explain why these changes matter
(Labor Productivity) ldentify at least four definable periods of labor
productivity growth beginning right after World War ll. During which
periods was productivity growth lowest and why? (Refer to Exhibit 6
inthe chapter.)
(Long-Term Productivity Growfhl Suppose that two nations start
out in 201 3 with identical levels of output per work hour-say,
$100 per hour. ln the first nation, labor productivity grows by
1 percent per year. ln the second, it grows by 2 percent per
year. Use a calculator or a spreadsheet to determine how much
output per hour each nation will be producing 20 years later, as-
suming that labor productivity growth rates do not change. Then,
determine how much eacll will be producing per hour 100 years
later. What.
- The document analyzes global economic growth trends and forecasts from 2008-2017. It summarizes The World Bank's forecast of moderate global GDP growth rising to 3.0% in 2015 and averaging 3.3% through 2017.
- The strategist argues The World Bank is overly optimistic given factors like China's economic slowdown and the end of the commodity super cycle. Slow global growth is expected to continue in the near future.
- Key themes discussed include diverging economic policies driving US dollar strength and deflation, China's transition from manufacturing to services, and tailwinds for short-term US growth amid a challenging global environment.
Inflation is a macroeconomic problem that can have detrimental effects on an economy. It causes a rise in general price levels which decreases the value of money. The effects of inflation can be categorized into output effects and redistribution effects. Output effects include reduced confidence, international competitiveness and investment, which can decrease output and employment. Redistribution effects involve a shifting of income and wealth between different groups as the purchasing power of money changes. Borrowers benefit while those on fixed incomes lose out.
What Drives Movements in Sovereign CDS Spreads?mymarketfair
We primarily aim to find the macroeconomic factors that drive the movements in Sovereign CDS prices using data from 35 countries around the world. We found no strong evidence of movements in sovereign CDS spreads related to three country-specific macroeconomic factors: exports, imports, and CPI. Since the onset of the financial crisis and the subsequent recovery from recession, we find that 61 percent of the variation in sovereign CDS spreads is explained by a single component. Similarly, a single component account for 54 percent of the variation in local stock market returns. We also find that sovereign CDS spreads are almost equally related to the US stock market, global equity premium, and local stock markets.
This document discusses macroeconomic policy and its main components of monetary and fiscal policy. The goals of macroeconomic policy are continued economic growth, high employment, stable prices, improved living standards, and a sustainable balance of payments. Both monetary and fiscal policy are used by governments to influence the economy and achieve these policy goals. Fiscal policy involves government spending and taxation levels and is used to manage aggregate output and GDP. Changes in fiscal policy, such as increases in spending or reductions in taxes, can stimulate economic activity and growth.
Chapter 1 57.What is the difference between recession and de.docxsleeperharwell
Chapter 1
57.
What is the difference between recession and depression in an economy? Provide an example of depression from the real world that has hit the global economy.
Use the following to answer question 58:
Answer: When there is a mild fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) of an economy over a period of time it leads to recession in the economy. If the intensity of the fall in GDP is severe over a period of time, then it turns into a depression. Recession is cyclic in nature; that is, it repeats itself over a period of time in an economy. A famous example of depression is that of the Great Depression of the 1930s that occurred in the United States and affected the global economy. Even the financial crisis of 2008-2009 in the United States was very much reminiscent of the Great Depression.
58.
Refer to the following graph and identify the years for which Country A and Country B experienced recession.
Country A experienced its recession during 2003 and its early recovery during 2004. Country B experienced its first recession during 2002 and its early recovery in 2003. Country B experienced a second recession in 2007.
59.
Why do we call macroeconomics an imperfect science? Explain.
The study of macroeconomics depends mainly upon the historical data on different economies. Macroeconomists analyze these data to explain changes occurring in different economic parameters (income, prices, unemployment, etc.) and formulate policies. Additionally, macroeconomic studies cannot be conducted in controlled experiments, as in biology or chemistry, for example. In this way, macroeconomists are similar to weather forecasters.
60.
Are the terms “market clearing” and “equilibrium” one and the same? Explain.
Yes, both terms represent the same notion: the balance between supply and demand. It is the balancing point at which everything that is produced gets sold and fulfills the entire demand. Thus, if all other things remain constant, then there is no tendency to change the quantity supplied and demanded at this point.
61.
Do you agree with the statement, “macroeconomics rests on the foundation of microeconomics”? Explain.
Macroeconomics involves studying the aggregate of economic variables related to individual decision making parameters, which are microeconomic (think of individuals' expenses, investments, etc.). That is to say, the total expenditure in an economy is the aggregate (sum) of all the expenditures done by all consumers in that economy, or the total investment done in an economy is the aggregate (sum) of all individual investments done by firms in that economy. This reflects that macroeconomic study rests on the foundation of microeconomics.
62.
Give two examples of macroeconomic variables and microeconomic variables.
The income of your father is a microeconomic variable, while the gross domestic product (GDP) of your country is a macroeconomic variable. The money your father saves in the bank is a microeconomic va.
This document provides an overview of macroeconomics and the circular flow of income through several models. It discusses key concepts such as:
1. Macroeconomics studies the economy as a whole by looking at aggregates like total output and income, whereas microeconomics looks at individual units.
2. Common macroeconomic policy objectives are full employment, price stability, economic growth, and balance of payments equilibrium.
3. The circular flow of income can be modeled in a two-sector closed economy with households and firms or a three-sector model that includes government. Savings and investment are incorporated through financial markets to achieve equilibrium.
This document discusses key concepts from Keynesian and Monetarist economic theories. It covers topics such as aggregate demand, the multiplier effect, liquidity preference, and the quantity theory of money. The document provides explanations, formulas, and diagrams to illustrate important relationships between concepts like consumption, investment, money supply, and national income.
This document discusses the concept of "black swans" and economic forecasting. It begins by explaining the origin of the term "black swan" and how Nassim Taleb later used it to describe rare events with disproportionate impacts. It then discusses challenges with economic analysis and forecasting due to lack of data and uncertainties. The rest of the document focuses on analyzing past recessions and economic cycles, challenges with the recent recovery, issues around credit growth and deleveraging, and the importance of considering many interrelated factors when developing economic forecasts. It also describes the machine learning techniques and models used by the company discussed in the document to generate their economic forecasts.
- The global economy is facing a recession due to central banks raising rates aggressively to reduce inflation, an energy shock in Europe, and China's zero-Covid policies and property market issues.
- The US is expected to enter recession in mid-2023, while growth will slow substantially in China and Europe is already in recession.
- Inflation remains stubbornly high but signs point to peaking in Europe and slowing in the US by late 2023 if labor markets weaken as expected. Government support measures face limits with high inflation and tightening monetary policies.
This document discusses macroeconomic concepts including inflation, aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and monetary policy tools. It provides examples of different types of inflation and how they impact the economy. The effects of various economic events on mainland China's economy are analyzed using aggregate demand and supply diagrams. The importance of economic growth and managing uncertainty in budgeting is covered. Monetary policy tools like contractionary monetary policy are explained in the context of reducing demand-pull inflation.
Economy & Internet Trends - Morgan Stanley PresentationSubrahmanyam KVJ
The document discusses trends in the mobile internet, noting that mobile internet usage is larger than most estimates and will continue growing rapidly due to devices like the iPhone. It also explores how next generation platforms combining social networking and mobile are driving changes in communication and commerce. Finally, it examines how 3G adoption and trends vary by geography and the challenges carriers face with surging network demand.
Genuine%20 %2008%20-%20 inflation%20and%20unemploymentDaniseck Adam
The document discusses inflation and unemployment. It defines inflation as a sustained rise in the general price level and outlines several key causes of inflation including cost-push, demand-pull, and monetary explanations. Cost-push inflation results from increases in production costs, while demand-pull inflation occurs when aggregate demand exceeds output. The quantity theory of money suggests that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon caused by excessive growth of the money supply. International data and studies of Tanzania support the role of monetary factors in driving inflation.
Technology S-Curve Analysis (TSC) is a method to determine the relationship between investment in improving technology and corresponding market sales. The curve typically takes the shape of an S as the market develops through phases of launch, growth, maturity, and decline. TSC Analysis is particularly useful for launching new technologies and assessing the remaining lifespan of technologies to guide business strategy and shifting resources to next-generation technologies. TSC Analysis provides intelligence on the current technology lifespan, potential limits, economics of innovation, a company's position, and quantifying investment versus payoff.
The document discusses S curves, which plot cumulative project quantities like costs or hours against time. It describes different types of S curves, including baseline, target, and actual S curves. The document explains how S curves can be used to analyze a project's progress, growth, and slippage. It also provides details on generating S curves from project schedule data and interpreting S curve analyses.
The S curve is used to spread project costs over time in a bell-shaped curve. It is based on the sine and cosine waves, with the integral of the sine wave producing a leaning S-shaped cumulative cost curve. The document describes tweaking the basic S curve model by introducing variables to skew the timing of costs (make them front-loaded or back-loaded) and adjust the peakness to flatten or steepen the curve. Equations are provided to calculate cost at any point in time or rate of spending based on total project cost, time, skewness, and peakness variables.
The document provides safety instructions and an overview of the features and operation of the Dual 31 Band Equalizer. Key points include:
- The equalizer has 31 frequency bands covering 20Hz to 20kHz that can each be boosted or cut by up to 12dB or 6dB depending on the range setting.
- It has electronically balanced inputs and outputs, variable low cut filter, bypass switches, and LED VU meters.
- The document explains the controls on the front and rear panels and provides instructions for setting up and using the equalizer for different applications such as with a mixer, patchbay, or real time analyzer.
This document presents a case study analyzing the S-curve of a construction project. It describes the original planned S-curve, which projected slow initial progress accelerating in the middle before slowing at completion. Actual progress fell far below this, requiring three adjustments - adding scope, and extending the schedule by 9 months total - to get the project back on track. By the third adjustment, actual progress more closely aligned with the planned S-curve, allowing the project to progress through start-up, growth, and commissioning phases to completion. The case study demonstrates how S-curve analysis can identify issues and inform decisions to successfully manage a project over its lifecycle.
The document discusses optimizing S-curve velocity profiles for motion control. An S-curve velocity profile is a smooth curve that is differentiable to the second order. The document describes decomposing 3D motion into 1D components and synthesizing physical constraints on jerk, acceleration, and velocity for each axis. It then presents calculations for generating an optimized S-curve velocity profile that satisfies the constraints and produces smooth, fast, and accurate motion between a start and end point.
The document discusses how to generate S-curves in Oracle Primavera P6 to analyze project progress and performance. S-curves show cumulative costs, labor hours, or other metrics plotted against time and typically have an S-shape. In Primavera P6, S-curves can be generated by activity or resource in the usage profile windows. Various analysis can then be done by comparing baseline, target, and actual S-curves to determine project growth, slippage, and progress. The S-curves can also be published from Primavera P6 as prints or embedded in webpages.
This document describes a methodology for modeling S-curves to forecast cost distribution over time for construction projects. It discusses three approaches to S-curve modeling: 1) Analyzing cost-time curves from literature, 2) Examining data from completed projects, and 3) Creating standard critical path models. The results from each approach are presented through mathematical expressions and diagrams. Finally, the results of the three approaches are integrated to develop final S-curves showing standard cost dynamics over time for different project types (buildings, tunnels, motorways). The proposed methodology can be used to forecast cost schedules during early project phases when detailed information is limited.
This document summarizes an optimization model for a contractor's S-curve developed using genetic algorithms. The model aims to minimize total construction costs while considering the tradeoff between different resource productivity and costs of resource mobilization/demobilization. An example project is optimized, resulting in a smoother resource allocation and lower total cost compared to the early and late schedules. The optimal S-curve developed from the model provides a baseline for measuring impacts of changes on construction costs.
This document discusses innovation lifecycles and how companies can leverage S-curves to drive breakthrough growth. It contains the following key points:
1. Products, services, and technologies progress along S-curves over time from emergence to maturity. Understanding where opportunities fall in their lifecycles can help companies innovate and avoid disruption.
2. Companies often fail to transition to new S-curves due to not focusing on or defending emerging technologies, cultural inertia, or lack of foresight.
3. Organizational strategies like leadership, structure, and metrics should evolve to support innovation or optimization depending on a business's point in the lifecycle. Tailoring the organization maximizes growth across the portfolio
This document discusses exploring the limits of technology S-curves by examining their usefulness for managers in planning new technology development. It focuses on the disk drive industry as a case study. The author makes four key points: 1) S-curves accurately describe industry-level technology substitution patterns, 2) to improve products, managers must oversee both component and architectural technology development, 3) S-curves describe individual firm experiences with components but cannot prescribe strategy, and 4) attackers gain advantage in this industry through architectural, not just technological, innovation in new applications.
The document discusses patterns of technological substitution that challenge the traditional S-curve model. It presents several historical examples that demonstrate more complex substitution patterns than the smooth S-curve, including: concatenated generations in steelmaking technologies; overlapping generations in IBM mainframe computers; and a case of long-term feedback reversing the substitution of DDT as an insecticide due to environmental concerns. The author argues that accounting for these complex real-world patterns requires broadening the theoretical framework for understanding technological substitutions.
This document discusses the history and development of semiconductors and integrated circuits. It describes how the transistor enabled electronics to be performed using silicon, leading to solid-state electronics like transistor radios. The integrated circuit was developed using the planar process to fabricate multiple transistors on silicon wafers. Moore's Law, proposed in 1965, predicted that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit would double every 18 months. This prediction has proven remarkably accurate and has driven innovation in the semiconductor industry for over 40 years. Continued shrinking of circuit elements has enabled faster processing speeds, higher functionality, and lower costs over time.
The document summarizes the key points from the book "Jumping the S-Curve" by Paul Nunes and Tim Breene. It discusses how companies can succeed by repeatedly climbing business S-curves and jumping to new S-curves before performance plateaus. To climb an S-curve, companies must identify a large market opportunity, build the necessary capabilities, and attract top talent. To jump to a new S-curve, companies must manage hidden S-curves, develop edge-centric strategies, reconstitute leadership teams early, and cultivate a talent pipeline. High performers are able to continually reinvent themselves through repeated S-curve climbing and jumping.
This document summarizes a research paper on algorithms for planning s-curve motion profiles.
The paper generalizes the model of polynomial s-curve motion profiles in a recursive form. It then proposes a general algorithm to design s-curve trajectories in a time-optimal manner. The algorithm calculates the time periods for connecting trajectory segments to generate a smooth path that meets velocity and acceleration limits. Experimental results on a linear motor system demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithms in generating s-curve motion profiles.
The document proposes an S-curve network model to describe finite networks with bulk growth. It summarizes that most network models assume infinite growth, but real networks are finite. The model adds new nodes exponentially at each time step based on a logistic curve, with the total number of nodes approaching a carrying capacity. It connects new nodes preferentially to existing high-degree nodes. The model aims to better represent features like the limited growth of real networks like the Chinese IPv4 address network.
This document analyzes commodity trade data between the US and Canada to test for the presence of an S-Curve dynamic. The author disaggregates bilateral trade data into 60 commodities representing over 80% of total trade. Cross-correlation analysis reveals support for the S-Curve pattern in the trade balances of 41 of the 60 commodities, providing evidence the effect exists at the disaggregated level where it was not found using aggregate data. Industries exhibiting the S-Curve include both durable and non-durable goods as well as large and small industries by trade share.
The document discusses performance analysis of digital signal processing (DSP) technologies using the S curve model. It begins by establishing the theoretical foundations of the S curve model, noting its relationships to innovation diffusion models and life cycle models. The S curve model represents the evolution of technology performance over time. The document then presents a methodology for applying the S curve model to analyze the technology performance of DSPs. Finally, it discusses the possibilities and usefulness of the S curve model as a strategic analysis tool.
Technology S-Curve Analysis (TSC) is a method to determine the relationship between investment in improving technology and corresponding market sales. The curve typically takes the shape of an S as the market develops through phases of launch, growth, maturity, and decline. TSC Analysis is particularly useful for launching new technologies and assessing the remaining lifespan of technologies to guide business strategy and shifting resources to next-generation technologies. TSC Analysis provides intelligence on the current technology lifespan, potential limits, economics of innovation, a company's position, and quantifying investment versus payoff.
This document discusses technology S-curves and their implications for renewable energy alternatives. It finds that both wind and geothermal energy are poised to become more economical than fossil fuels relatively soon based on historical cost reductions from R&D investment. However, government R&D funding has been lower for wind and geothermal compared to solar energy. The analysis suggests governments may over-fund fossil fuel technologies given their diminishing performance improvements. Examining renewable technologies through an S-curve lens provides insights not found using traditional experience curves and indicates areas where industry and government could better support technology development.
Leveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit InnovationTechSoup
In this webinar, participants learned how to utilize Generative AI to streamline operations and elevate member engagement. Amazon Web Service experts provided a customer specific use cases and dived into low/no-code tools that are quick and easy to deploy through Amazon Web Service (AWS.)
ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, and GDPR: Best Practices for Implementation and...PECB
Denis is a dynamic and results-driven Chief Information Officer (CIO) with a distinguished career spanning information systems analysis and technical project management. With a proven track record of spearheading the design and delivery of cutting-edge Information Management solutions, he has consistently elevated business operations, streamlined reporting functions, and maximized process efficiency.
Certified as an ISO/IEC 27001: Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) Lead Implementer, Data Protection Officer, and Cyber Risks Analyst, Denis brings a heightened focus on data security, privacy, and cyber resilience to every endeavor.
His expertise extends across a diverse spectrum of reporting, database, and web development applications, underpinned by an exceptional grasp of data storage and virtualization technologies. His proficiency in application testing, database administration, and data cleansing ensures seamless execution of complex projects.
What sets Denis apart is his comprehensive understanding of Business and Systems Analysis technologies, honed through involvement in all phases of the Software Development Lifecycle (SDLC). From meticulous requirements gathering to precise analysis, innovative design, rigorous development, thorough testing, and successful implementation, he has consistently delivered exceptional results.
Throughout his career, he has taken on multifaceted roles, from leading technical project management teams to owning solutions that drive operational excellence. His conscientious and proactive approach is unwavering, whether he is working independently or collaboratively within a team. His ability to connect with colleagues on a personal level underscores his commitment to fostering a harmonious and productive workplace environment.
Date: May 29, 2024
Tags: Information Security, ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, Artificial Intelligence, GDPR
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Find out more about ISO training and certification services
Training: ISO/IEC 27001 Information Security Management System - EN | PECB
ISO/IEC 42001 Artificial Intelligence Management System - EN | PECB
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) - Training Courses - EN | PECB
Webinars: https://pecb.com/webinars
Article: https://pecb.com/article
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For more information about PECB:
Website: https://pecb.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pecb/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PECBInternational/
Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/PECBCERTIFICATION
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering.pptxDenish Jangid
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering
Syllabus
Chapter-1
Introduction to objective, scope and outcome the subject
Chapter 2
Introduction: Scope and Specialization of Civil Engineering, Role of civil Engineer in Society, Impact of infrastructural development on economy of country.
Chapter 3
Surveying: Object Principles & Types of Surveying; Site Plans, Plans & Maps; Scales & Unit of different Measurements.
Linear Measurements: Instruments used. Linear Measurement by Tape, Ranging out Survey Lines and overcoming Obstructions; Measurements on sloping ground; Tape corrections, conventional symbols. Angular Measurements: Instruments used; Introduction to Compass Surveying, Bearings and Longitude & Latitude of a Line, Introduction to total station.
Levelling: Instrument used Object of levelling, Methods of levelling in brief, and Contour maps.
Chapter 4
Buildings: Selection of site for Buildings, Layout of Building Plan, Types of buildings, Plinth area, carpet area, floor space index, Introduction to building byelaws, concept of sun light & ventilation. Components of Buildings & their functions, Basic concept of R.C.C., Introduction to types of foundation
Chapter 5
Transportation: Introduction to Transportation Engineering; Traffic and Road Safety: Types and Characteristics of Various Modes of Transportation; Various Road Traffic Signs, Causes of Accidents and Road Safety Measures.
Chapter 6
Environmental Engineering: Environmental Pollution, Environmental Acts and Regulations, Functional Concepts of Ecology, Basics of Species, Biodiversity, Ecosystem, Hydrological Cycle; Chemical Cycles: Carbon, Nitrogen & Phosphorus; Energy Flow in Ecosystems.
Water Pollution: Water Quality standards, Introduction to Treatment & Disposal of Waste Water. Reuse and Saving of Water, Rain Water Harvesting. Solid Waste Management: Classification of Solid Waste, Collection, Transportation and Disposal of Solid. Recycling of Solid Waste: Energy Recovery, Sanitary Landfill, On-Site Sanitation. Air & Noise Pollution: Primary and Secondary air pollutants, Harmful effects of Air Pollution, Control of Air Pollution. . Noise Pollution Harmful Effects of noise pollution, control of noise pollution, Global warming & Climate Change, Ozone depletion, Greenhouse effect
Text Books:
1. Palancharmy, Basic Civil Engineering, McGraw Hill publishers.
2. Satheesh Gopi, Basic Civil Engineering, Pearson Publishers.
3. Ketki Rangwala Dalal, Essentials of Civil Engineering, Charotar Publishing House.
4. BCP, Surveying volume 1
Walmart Business+ and Spark Good for Nonprofits.pdfTechSoup
"Learn about all the ways Walmart supports nonprofit organizations.
You will hear from Liz Willett, the Head of Nonprofits, and hear about what Walmart is doing to help nonprofits, including Walmart Business and Spark Good. Walmart Business+ is a new offer for nonprofits that offers discounts and also streamlines nonprofits order and expense tracking, saving time and money.
The webinar may also give some examples on how nonprofits can best leverage Walmart Business+.
The event will cover the following::
Walmart Business + (https://business.walmart.com/plus) is a new shopping experience for nonprofits, schools, and local business customers that connects an exclusive online shopping experience to stores. Benefits include free delivery and shipping, a 'Spend Analytics” feature, special discounts, deals and tax-exempt shopping.
Special TechSoup offer for a free 180 days membership, and up to $150 in discounts on eligible orders.
Spark Good (walmart.com/sparkgood) is a charitable platform that enables nonprofits to receive donations directly from customers and associates.
Answers about how you can do more with Walmart!"
Strategies for Effective Upskilling is a presentation by Chinwendu Peace in a Your Skill Boost Masterclass organisation by the Excellence Foundation for South Sudan on 08th and 09th June 2024 from 1 PM to 3 PM on each day.
1. The S-Curve Relation Between Per-Capita Income and
Insurance Penetration
by Rudolf EnzÃ
Models that assume a constant income elasticity of demand for insurance have the
unrealistic implication that insurance penetration grows without constraint. This article
introduces a logistic function that allows income elasticity to vary as the economy matures.
Econometric estimations yield a so-called S-curve, for which the income elasticity of
demand is equal to one at speci®c low and high levels of income, but may reach two or
more at intermediate income levels. Long-term forecasts for insurance premiums based on
GDP projections are possible for countries that either conform to the S-curve model or
deviate consistently from it. Analysing deviations from the S-curve allows the identi®cation
of outlier countries, in which factors other than GDP drive insurance demand.
Keywords: insurance, forecasting, premium volume, life and non-life, international
comparison, logistic function.
1. Introduction
The growth in premiums paid to insurers in an economy is closely related to gross
domestic product (GDP) growth, with income elasticity generally greater than one.
Researchers usually assume a constant income elasticity which, together with an income
elasticity greater than one, implies that there are no limits to insurance penetration (premiums
divided by GDP). Table 1 shows an example of a country with an initial insurance penetration
of 3 per cent, income elasticity of 2 and real GDP growth of 4 per cent per annum. After 25
years ± one generation ± insurance penetration increases to 8 per cent; after twogenerations it
reaches an implausibly high 20 per cent.
à Swiss Re, Economic Research & Consulting, Zurich, Switzerland. Rudolf_Enz@swissre.com
Table 1:
Constant income elasticity example
Income elasticity ˆ 2 Today
Growth
p.a.
After
25 years
After
50 years
Premium 3 8% 20.5 140.7
GDP 100 4% 266.6 710.7
Penetration 3% 8% 20%
The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Vol. 25 No. 3 (July 2000) 396±406
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
Published by Blackwell Publishers, 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK.
2. In practice, supply and demand factors limit insurance penetration. On the demand side,
people and businesses need many things in addition to loss payments from insurers. High
insurance rates induce policyholders to seek insurance substitutes such as loss prevention and
self-insurance. Insurance supply is limited because of moral hazard: insurers want policy-
holders to bear a suf®cient amount of risk to maintain the incentive to avoid large losses. All
this suggests that the income elasticity of demand for insurance declines as GDP grows. The
S-curve is a functional form which allows for this variation.
The S-curve can explain changes in insurance premiums over time for a given country,
but this estimation requires a very long time series. In this article we use panel data to ®nd the
international S-curve for life and non-life insurance. We expect individual countries to
deviate from this world average because there are many factors other than GDP that in¯uence
insurance penetration.2
There might, however, be convergence towards the world average,
brought about by increased globalization and competition in the insurance sector.
This article takes the following form: section 2 introduces the S-curve function and
discusses its properties and section 3 presents the S-curve estimations. In section 4, the effect
of the exchange rate on the resulting estimations is analysed by means of purchasing power
parities instead of market exchange rates. Section 5 looks at the deviations from the S-curve in
absolute terms as well as in terms of dynamic movements towards or away from the
international average S-curve. Finally, section 6 summarizes the ®ndings of the article.
2. Method: S-curve properties and application
The S-curveused in this paper is a logistic function with three parameters. Its equation is:
Penetration ˆ premiumsaGDP ˆ 1a(C1 ‡ C2 3 C3
”
real GDP per capita) (1)
In the case of C3 , 1, penetration increases with real GDP per capita, whereas with C3 . 1 it
decreases. In the special case C3 ˆ 1, penetration is not at all dependent on real GDP per
capita. In the normal case of C3 , 1, the minimum and maximum penetration is:
Minimum penetration ˆ 1a(C1 ‡ C2) (2)
Maximum penetration ˆ 1aC1 (3)
The maximum penetration level 1aC1 is an asymptote that the S-curve approaches as per
capita GDP rises. The steepness of the S-curve increases up to a certain level of income ±
called the in¯ection point ± and decreases thereafter.
Income at inflection point ˆ [Ln(C1) À Ln(C2)]aLn(C3) (4)
If C1 and the sum (C1 ‡ C2) have opposite signs, the S-curve function has discontinuity:
penetration jumps from plus in®nity to minus in®nity in the case of C3 , 1. Chart 1 plots some
examples of S-curves.
Equations (2) to (4) can also be used to reparameterize the curve: choose the minimum,
maximum and in¯ection points and solve for the parameters C1, C2 and C3.
The income elasticity of insurance premium volume is given by:
2
Some examples: losses depend on building standards and exposure to natural catastrophes; regulation may
require mandatory motor insurance with different minimum covers; the government may offer insurance that is not
registered in the statistics of insurance regulatory authorities, etc.
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
THE S-CURVE RELATION BETWEEN PER-CAPITA INCOME AND INSURANCE PENETRATION 397
3. Income elasticity ˆ 1 À [C2(C3
”
Y)Y Ln(C3)]a[(C1 ‡ C2C3
”
Y)] (5)
where Y represents real GDP per capita. In the normal case, where penetration increases with
income, income elasticity starts and ends with avalue of one, whereas it is greater than one for
income levels in between. This changing income elasticity is the property that distinguishes
the S-curve from constant elasticity functions. The maximum income elasticity is reached at a
real per capita income of YÃ:
1 ‡ YÃ Ln(C3) ‡ [C2C3
”
YÃ]aC1 ˆ 0 (6)
The maximum elasticity income is different from the in¯ection point income. This is because
the maximum elasticity income is based on the derivation of the S-curve according to income,
whereas the in¯ection point income is based on the derivation of the S-curve according to
income per capita. A closed form solution does exist for YÃ, but it requires the product
logarithm function which is not available in some software packages.
3. Estimation of life and non-life penetration
Data on penetration have been taken from the Sigma on world insurance for the years
1970±98,3
covering90countries in life and 88countries in non-life insurance. GDP per capita
Figure 1: Some examples of S-curves
3
The Sigma on world insurance is published regularly by Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting. The
latest issue on this subject, Sigma No. 7/1999, is entitled ``World insurance in 1998: deregulation, overcapacity and
®nancial crises curb premium growth''.
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
398 ENZ
4. ®gures are given in real terms and have been converted into US$ at 1997 exchange rates as
provided by the WEFAWorld Market Monitor. Purchasing power parity (PPP) levels for 1997
are taken from the World Bank.
The estimation of the S-curve for life and non-life penetration gives the following
results:
The parameters C1 to C3 are signi®cantly different from zero; C3 is also less than 1,
which implies that penetration increases with GDP per capita. The R-squared for life business
is half that of the non-life value. The in¯ection point and per capita income with maximum
income elasticity for life business are 14,000 and US$ 15,000 per capita respectively, whereas
for non-life they are 5,000 and US$ 10,000 per capita. Maximum income elasticity is almost 2
for life, but only 1.5 for non-life insurance.
Figure 2 shows the S-curve for life insurance. Penetration in some countries differs
widely from the international average. Other factors in addition to income must account for
the demand for life insurance. The chart for non-life (Figure 3) reveals a much greater
coherence among countries.
Figure 4 shows how the income elasticity of insurance premium volume changes with
real income per capita. Elasticity looks to be ``almost'' one at income levels of US$ 300 and
Table 2:
Regression results
GDP at 1997 exchange rates Life Non-life
C1 26.5 35.6
(8.3) (35.5)
C2 148.4 73.7
(9.7) (23.3)
C3 0.8831 0.8612
(61.5) (77.7)
Wald-Test C3 ˆ 1, F-Statistic 66.2 156.7
Adj. R-squared 22.4% 44.1%
Number of observations 1561 1574
Properties
Min. penetration 0.6% 0.9%
Max. penetration 3.8% 2.8%
In¯ection point at GDP per capita, US$ 13 863 4871
Max. income elasticity 1.9 1.5
At GDP per capita, US$ 15 000 9900
Notes: Estimated with EViews 3.1; t-statistics in parentheses.
Regression did not use any country dummies.
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
THE S-CURVE RELATION BETWEEN PER-CAPITA INCOME AND INSURANCE PENETRATION 399
5. Figure 2: S-curve life business, 1998 data points only
Figure 3: S-curve non-life business,1998 data points only
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
400 ENZ
6. 30,000 per capita,but reaches itshighest values at US$ 10,000for non-life and US$ 15,000for
life insurance.
4. The in¯uence of purchasing power parities
Using purchasing power parities (PPP) instead of market exchange rates to convert GDP
per capita ®gures into US dollars raises the stated incomes of developing countries
appreciably. This is because non-traded goods play an important role in developing countries
but their prices are not re¯ected in the market exchange rates. To the group of non-traded
goods belong those which are produced and consumed by families and never come to market.
In countries with per capita income of less than US$ 1,000, PPP values are 2 to 5.5 times
higher than those using market exchange rates; in industrialized countries, the two values are
very close. Figure 5 shows how the ratio of PPP to the market exchange rate decreaseswith per
capita GDP. The regression line was used to impute PPP values for a few countries for which
the World Bank does not calculate ®gures.
Using PPP values instead of market exchange rates displaces developing countries
in the S-curve chart from left to right. Table 3 shows the effects on the S-curve
estimation. The minimum penetration value is reduced to 0.3 per cent in life and 0.6 per
cent in non-life; the maximum penetration in life is increased to 3.9 per cent; and
maximum income elasticity is increased to 2.3 in life and 1.7 in non-life. The R-squared
in the life regression is marginally better than in the regression with market exchange
rates.
Figure 4: Income elasticity of insurance premium volume
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
THE S-CURVE RELATION BETWEEN PER-CAPITA INCOME AND INSURANCE PENETRATION 401
7. Table 3:
Regression results
GDP at 1997 purchasing power
parities Life Non-life
C1 25.6 35.6
(7.7) (23.8)
C2 314.9 123.6
(5.6) (14.5)
C3 0.8325 0.8307
(41.2) (58.2)
Wald-Test C3 ˆ 1, F-Statistic 68.7 140.6
Adj. R-squared 24.4% 42.8%
Number of observations 1561 1574
Properties
Min. penetration 0.3% 0.6%
Max. penetration 3.9% 2.8%
In¯ection point at GDP per
capita, US$
13 682 6 717
Max. income elasticity 2.3 1.7
At GDP per capita, US$ 12 400 8 900
Notes: Estimated with EViews 3.1; t-statistics in parentheses.
Regression did not use any country dummies.
Figure 5: PPP versus market exchange rates for per capita GDP
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
402 ENZ
8. 5. Deviations from the S-curve
A look at the means and trends of the regression residuals reveals further insight into the
characteristics of individual countries. This is also necessary in order to compensate for the
fact that possible ®xed effects are not taken into account in the estimation process.4
The
majority of countries have signi®cantly higher or lower penetration averages than the mean.
In life insurance, below average penetration is especially the case in Iceland, Libya,
Luxembourg, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait; penetration is above average in
Ireland, Zimbabwe, the U.K., Japan, South Africa and Korea. The negative deviations are
due, amongst other factors, to religious beliefs (Islam), which do not support life insurance.
Strong positive deviations can be observed in the Asian countries with traditionally weak
banking systems and in the Anglo-Saxon countries and their former African colonies, which
favour individual old age provision (see Table 4). With the exception of Oman, no country
Table 4:
Residuals from the S-curve estimation for countries showing signi®cant trends, life business
Country
Number of
observations Mean Signi®cant
Trend, %
points per
year Signi®cant Converging
Australia 27 0.52% Ã 0.09% ÃÃ no
Austria 17 À1.24% ÃÃ 0.04% Ã yes
Belgium 12 À0.87% ÃÃ 0.14% ÃÃ yes
Chile 24 0.39% ÃÃ 0.08% ÃÃ no
Cyprus 12 0.20% 0.09% Ã no
Finland 24 1.13% ÃÃ 0.12% ÃÃ no
France 29 À0.20% 0.16% ÃÃ no
India 29 0.32% ÃÃ 0.02% ÃÃ no
Ireland 29 2.10% ÃÃ 0.08% ÃÃ no
Kenya 21 0.01% 0.29% ÃÃ no
Latvia 6 À0.43% ÃÃ 0.10% ÃÃ yes
Mexico 29 À0.50% ÃÃ 0.05% ÃÃ yes
Nigeria 21 À0.43% ÃÃ 0.14% ÃÃ yes
Oman 6 À0.95% ÃÃ À0.06% ÃÃ no
Poland 14 À0.39% ÃÃ 0.09% ÃÃ yes
Saudi Arabia 6 À1.19% ÃÃ 0.04% Ã yes
Spain 29 À0.62% ÃÃ 0.06% ÃÃ yes
Sweden 19 À0.38% ÃÃ 0.03% ÃÃ yes
Switzerland 28 0.72% Ã 0.18% ÃÃ no
Turkey 12 À0.64% ÃÃ 0.12% ÃÃ yes
United
Kingdom
29 2.50% ÃÃ 0.16% ÃÃ no
Zimbabwe 22 2.25% ÃÃ 0.00% ÃÃ no
à signi®cant at 5% level, Ãà signi®cant at 1% level
4
Due to the non-linearity of the S-curve function the software EViews was not able to estimate equations with
®xed income effects.
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
THE S-CURVE RELATION BETWEEN PER-CAPITA INCOME AND INSURANCE PENETRATION 403
9. has a signi®cant negative trend in residuals. However, there are 22 countries for which
penetration increased at a higher rate than predicted solely by the S-curve. Kenya,
Switzerland, France, the U.K., Belgium, Nigeria, Turkey and Finland showed an extra
increase in penetration rates of more than 0.1 per cent a year. This is mainly the result of a
worsening age structure and the inability to sustain social security systems. Figure 6 depicts
the strong growth in life insurance premiums in these countries, which far exceeds GDP
growth. The decline in France in 1998 was the result of a reduction in the tax exemption on
life insurance policies. Ten countries exhibited some convergence towards the average S-
curve; ie their residuals have a signi®cant negative mean and a signi®cant positive trend.
These countries are Austria, Belgium, Latvia, Mexico, Nigeria, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Spain,
Sweden and Turkey.
In non-life insurance the following countries are more than one percentage point below
the average penetration: Libya, Kuwait, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates (see Table 5).5
All of these deviations stem from low motor-insurance volume: in
Hong Kong the number of vehicles is limited because of space, and in the Arab countries
motor liability is limited because of the regulation of so-called ``bloodmoney''. In Costa Rica,
Kenya, Israel, the Netherlands and Croatia, penetration is more than one percentage point
above the average, mainly because of the high catastrophe exposure in these countries. In nine
countries the residuals showa signi®cantly negative trend, in 27 countries the trend is positive.
Only eight countries show a signi®cantly converging trend towards the average S-curve:
Croatia and Zimbabwe are converging towards average penetration from above, whereas
Brazil, Japan, Libya, Luxembourg, Russia and Thailand are approaching the average from
below.
Figure 6: Some examples of penetration paths in life insurance
5
Table 5 shows only the countries which have signi®cant trends in residuals, so some countries with high
absolute mean values are missing.
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
404 ENZ
10. Table 5:
Residuals from the S-curve estimation for countries showing signi®cant trends, non-life
business
Country
Number of
observations Mean Signi®cant
Trend, %
points per
year Signi®cant Converging
Algeria 28 À0.09% À0.02% ÃÃ no
Argentina 28 0.15% À0.03% ÃÃ no
Brazil 20 À0.21% Ã 0.05% ÃÃ yes
Canada 29 0.43% ÃÃ 0.04% ÃÃ no
Chile 24 0.33% À0.11% ÃÃ no
Colombia 24 0.17% Ã 0.05% ÃÃ no
Croatia 7 1.78% ÃÃ À0.33% ÃÃ yes
Dominican
Republic
29 0.04% 0.02% ÃÃ no
Germany 29 0.82% ÃÃ 0.02% Ã no
Iceland 19 À0.03% 0.04% ÃÃ no
Ireland 29 0.68% ÃÃ 0.03% ÃÃ no
Japan 29 À0.58% ÃÃ 0.04% ÃÃ yes
Korea 13 0.79% ÃÃ 0.14% ÃÃ no
Latvia 6 0.14% 0.29% ÃÃ no
Lebanon 7 0.55% Ã 0.19% ÃÃ no
Libya 22 À1.96% ÃÃ 0.02% Ã yes
Luxembourg 17 À0.19% Ã 0.04% ÃÃ yes
Netherlands 22 1.29% ÃÃ 0.02% Ã no
New Zealand 21 0.47% 0.15% ÃÃ no
Panama 22 0.81% ÃÃ 0.05% ÃÃ no
Philippines 29 À0.10% ÃÃ À0.02% Ã no
Poland 14 0.09% 0.08% ÃÃ no
Russia 8 À0.50% ÃÃ 0.15% ÃÃ yes
Singapore 29 À0.69% ÃÃ À0.07% ÃÃ no
South Africa 28 0.63% ÃÃ 0.07% ÃÃ no
Spain 29 À0.03% 0.05% ÃÃ no
Switzerland 28 0.50% ÃÃ 0.04% ÃÃ no
Thailand 29 À0.37% ÃÃ 0.03% ÃÃ yes
Tunisia 29 0.28% ÃÃ 0.02% ÃÃ no
United
Kingdom
29 0.51% ÃÃ 0.03% ÃÃ no
United States 29 0.30% ÃÃ 0.06% ÃÃ no
Uruguay 8 À0.05% À0.11% Ã no
Venezuela 29 0.32% ÃÃ 0.04% ÃÃ no
Vietnam 12 À0.28% À0.06% Ã no
Zimbabwe 22 0.77% ÃÃ À0.03% ÃÃ yes
à signi®cant at 5% level, Ãà signi®cant at 1% level
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
THE S-CURVE RELATION BETWEEN PER-CAPITA INCOME AND INSURANCE PENETRATION 405
11. 6. Conclusion
The S-curve provides some insight into the relation between income per capita and
insurance premiums. There seem to be upper and lower limits to the portion of income that is
spent on insurance. Moreover, there is a level of per-capita income ± approximately US$
15,000 for life and US$ 10,000 for non-life insurance ± at which the income elasticity of the
demand for insurance reaches a maximum. The S-curve has its limitations. As it is only a one-
factor model, it neglects all factors in¯uencing the demand for insurance other than real GDP
per capita. Nevertheless the S-curve can easily be used for long-term forecasting. Some
countries show consistent deviations from the S-curve, which may result from structural
differences to the rest of the world. Producing forecasts for these countries is still possible if
one assumes that deviations from the international average remain constant. The S-curve is
inadequate for countries where deviations from the average change over time, which implies
that forces other than income drive premiums. Prominent among these forces are changes in
the insurance environment, such as amendments to insurance taxation or the extent of
government-provided insurance programmes. An analysis of deviations from the S-curve
readily identi®es these countries.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BROWNE, M. J. and KIM, K., 1993, ``An International Analysis of Life Insurance Demand'', The Journal of Risk and
Insurance, December, pp. 616±634.
CARTER, R. L. and DICKINSON, G. M., 1992, Obstacles to the Liberalisation of Trade in Insurance, Thames Essay
No. 58. Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf. See Appendix IV, pp. 175±188.
OUTREVILLE, J.-F., 1992, ``The Relationship Between Insurance, Financial Development and Market Structure in
Developing Countries'', Unctad Review, January, pp. 53±69.
OUTREVILLE, J.-F., 1996, ``Life Insurance Markets in Developing Countries'', The Journal of Risk and Insurance,
Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 263±278.
# 2000 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics.
406 ENZ