Mankiew chapter 7 Consumers, Producers, and the Efficiency of MarketsAbd ELRahman ALFar
What is consumer surplus? How is it related to the demand curve?
What is producer surplus? How is it related to the supply curve?
Do markets produce a desirable allocation of resources? Or could the market outcome be improved upon?
Mankiew chapter 7 Consumers, Producers, and the Efficiency of MarketsAbd ELRahman ALFar
What is consumer surplus? How is it related to the demand curve?
What is producer surplus? How is it related to the supply curve?
Do markets produce a desirable allocation of resources? Or could the market outcome be improved upon?
In this comprehensive chapter on unemployment, we embark on an explorative journey into the intricate dynamics of joblessness, aiming to dissect its multifaceted nature and illuminate pathways towards meaningful solutions.
We commence our inquiry by delineating the diverse manifestations of unemployment, discerning between frictional, structural, cyclical, and seasonal unemployment. Each form bears its distinct characteristics and implications, necessitating nuanced approaches for effective intervention.
Delving deeper, we unravel the underlying drivers of unemployment, which encompass a constellation of factors spanning technological innovation, globalization, mismatched skills, and economic fluctuations. Understanding these root causes is pivotal for devising targeted strategies that address the systemic barriers to employment.
Furthermore, we scrutinize the reverberating ripple effects of unemployment across individuals, families, and communities. From financial insecurity and diminished well-being to social disintegration and diminished human capital, the repercussions of joblessness permeate every facet of society, underscoring the urgency of concerted action.
Turning our gaze towards potential remedies, we embark on a quest to unearth pathways towards inclusive prosperity. We advocate for investments in education and skills development, fostering a dynamic workforce equipped to thrive in an ever-evolving labor market. Additionally, we champion the imperative of proactive labor market policies, including job creation initiatives, wage subsidies, and retraining programs tailored to the needs of vulnerable populations.
Moreover, we spotlight the catalytic role of entrepreneurship and innovation in engendering job growth and economic resilience. By cultivating an ecosystem conducive to enterprise, we nurture the seeds of innovation and empower individuals to chart their own pathways to prosperity.
Yet, our quest for solutions extends beyond policy prescriptions to encompass a broader ethos of social solidarity and collective responsibility. We underscore the imperative of forging partnerships across sectors, harnessing the collective ingenuity of government, business, civil society, and academia to forge a more equitable and inclusive future.
In sum, this chapter serves as a testament to the complexities of unemployment and the imperative of collective action. By embracing a holistic approach that addresses the structural roots of joblessness while fostering individual empowerment, we can aspire towards a future where every individual has the opportunity to realize their full potential and contribute meaningfully to society.
AS Macro - Unemployment and the Labour Markettutor2u
Unemployment is one of the major macro-economic
performance indicators. The more unemployed people
in our economy the more we are producing below our
potential, less income is earned (reducing saving,
consumption and tax revenue) and there is a negative
impact on the welfare of society.
Four Day Workweek Policy For Improving Employment and Environmental Condition...Sociotechnical Roundtable
Can working less lead to a healthier economy and better environmental conditions? Which factors should be taken into consideration when forming an answer to this question? In this article Nicholas Ashford and Giorgos Kallis discuss how affluent economies often have shorter work-weeks and why, under the right conditions, more free time can decrease unemployment and help develop a greener, more sustainable Europe.
At an event in Westminster chaired by new RF Executive Chair David Willetts, the Resolution Foundation presented early findings from its major new investigation into full employment. A panel of leading experts offered their take on the issue, followed by a Q&A.
These slides are from our January 2014 revision workshops for unit 3 microeconomics. They focus on some of the arguments surrounding the possible introduction of a £7 per hour national minimum wage in the UK
Module 3 Lecture (Ch. 15) Jobs & UnemploymentWHAT IS ‘UNEMPLOYM.docxkendalfarrier
Module 3 Lecture (Ch. 15): Jobs & Unemployment
WHAT IS ‘UNEMPLOYMENT’?
At first glance this seems like a rather stupid question; yet, in reality, it’s a tough question to answer. We must have a fairly reliable method of measuring unemployment because of the tremendously adverse effect a high unemployment rate has upon the economy of a society as a whole. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official unemployment definition is “…the total of all unemployed as a percent of the entire civilian labor force”. Realizing that this is too simplistic a definition, the Bureau divides the unemployed into six different categories. Each of these categories represents the different variables that must be taken into account when measuring the number of unemployed in our society. The above definition represents the first three tiers of unemployment definitions starting with just that group of individuals unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. The last three tiers include:
· Discouraged Workers M
· The “semi-hidden” unemployed
· Marginally Attached Workers: Those not working nor are they actively looking for a job, but they are available to work and have looked for work recently.
IS SOME LEVEL UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFICIAL?
The intention of the classification of unemployment is an attempt to measure how an economy is doing at providing jobs for the people who want them, not just the percentage of people in an economy who are not employed.
Think about the unemployment of things rather than people. Look around the campus and notice all the unemployed automobiles in the parking lots/stations. Notice the unemployed classrooms early in the morning and late at night. Notice the unemployed seats in Starbucks. Look around the city and notice all the unemployed automobiles in the car sales lots. Try to make a reservation at any of the hotels in the city and notice that you can almost always get a room—hence, lots of unemployed hotel rooms.
Does all this unemployment bring benefits? Obviously, it would be very costly to organize rental markets in which cars don’t sit idle all day, classrooms utilized 24/7, hotel rooms booked 100% all of the time and so on. Do the same ideas apply to unemployed people? Certainly, unemployment causes misery and heartache to those who have been laid off or can’t find work. It is definitely quite costly both emotionally and economically; however, there are potential benefits to a certain level of unemployment.
As noted in the examples above (autos, hotel rooms, empty classrooms etc.) imagining an economy without any unemployment is nearly impossible. If consumers are free to change their decisions about what they want to buy, some goods and services must fall out of favor when others come into favor. The firms making the products falling from favor fall on hard times and often their workers are fired or laid off. Sure, these laid-off workers could start work right away, cleaning shoes, selling flowers at intersections, etc., but they are better off (in t.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
2. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 2
In this chapter, you will learn…
…about the natural rate of unemployment:
what it means
what causes it
understanding its behavior in the real world
3. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 3
Natural rate of unemployment
Natural rate of unemployment:
The average rate of unemployment around which
the economy fluctuates.
In a recession, the actual unemployment rate rises
above the natural rate.
In a boom, the actual unemployment rate falls below
the natural rate.
4. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 4
Actual and natural rates of
unemployment in the U.S., 1960-2006
Percentoflaborforce
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Unemployment rate
Natural rate of
unemployment
5. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 5
A first model of the natural rate
Notation:
L = # of workers in labor force
E = # of employed workers
U = # of unemployed
U/L = unemployment rate
6. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 6
Assumptions:
1. L is exogenously fixed.
2. During any given month,
s = fraction of employed workers
that become separated from their jobs
s is called the rate of job separations
f = fraction of unemployed workers
that find jobs
f is called the rate of job finding
s and f are exogenous
7. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 7
The transitions between
employment and unemployment
Employed Unemployed
s
×E
f ×U
8. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 8
The steady state condition
Definition: the labor market is in
steady state, or long-run equilibrium,
if the unemployment rate is constant.
The steady-state condition is:
s ×E = f
×U
# of employed
people who
lose or leave
their jobs
# of unemployed
people who find
jobs
9. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 9
Finding the “equilibrium” U rate
f ×U = s× E
= s× (L –U )
= s× L – s× U
Solve for U/L:
(f + s)× U = s× L
so,
10. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 10
Example:
Each month,
1% of employed workers lose their jobs
(s = 0.01)
19% of unemployed workers find jobs
(f = 0.19)
Find the natural rate of unemployment:
0 01
0 05, or 5%
0 01 0 19
U s
L s f
= = =
+ +
.
.
. .
11. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 11
Policy implication
A policy will reduce the natural rate of
unemployment only if it lowers s or increases f.
12. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 12
Why is there unemployment?
If job finding were instantaneous (f = 1),
then all spells of unemployment would be brief,
and the natural rate would be near zero.
There are two reasons why f < 1:
1. job search
2. wage rigidity
13. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 13
Job search & frictional unemployment
frictional unemployment: caused by the time
it takes workers to search for a job
occurs even when wages are flexible and there
are enough jobs to go around
occurs because
workers have different abilities, preferences
jobs have different skill requirements
geographic mobility of workers not instantaneous
flow of information about vacancies and job
candidates is imperfect
14. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 14
Sectoral shifts
def: Changes in the composition of demand
among industries or regions.
example: Technological change
more jobs repairing computers,
fewer jobs repairing typewriters
example: A new international trade agreement
labor demand increases in export sectors,
decreases in import-competing sectors
Result: frictional unemployment
15. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 15
CASE STUDY:
Structural change over the long run
4.2%
28.0%
9.9%
57.9%
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Other industry
Services
1960
1.6%
17.2%
7.7%
73.5%
2000
16. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 16
More examples of sectoral shifts
Late 1800s: decline of agriculture,
increase in manufacturing
Late 1900s: relative decline of manufacturing,
increase in service sector
1970s: energy crisis caused a shift in demand
away from gas guzzlers toward smaller cars.
In our dynamic economy,
smaller sectoral shifts occur frequently,
contributing to frictional unemployment.
17. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 17
Public policy and job search
Govt programs affecting unemployment
Govt employment agencies:
disseminate info about job openings to better
match workers & jobs.
Public job training programs:
help workers displaced from declining industries
get skills needed for jobs in growing industries.
18. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 18
Unemployment insurance (UI)
UI pays part of a worker’s former wages for a
limited time after losing his/her job.
UI increases search unemployment,
because it reduces
the opportunity cost of being unemployed
the urgency of finding work
f
Studies: The longer a worker is eligible for UI,
the longer the duration of the average spell of
unemployment.
19. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 19
By allowing workers more time to search,
UI may lead to better matches between
jobs and workers,
which would lead to greater productivity and
higher incomes.
Benefits of UI
20. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 20
Why is there unemployment?
Two reasons why f < 1:
1. job search
2. wage rigidity
DONE
Next
The natural rate of unemployment:
21. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 21
Unemployment from real wage
rigidity
Labor
Real
wage
Supply
Demand
Unemployment
Rigid
real
wage
Amount of labor
willing to work
Amount of
labor hired
If real wage is
stuck above
its eq’m level,
then there
aren’t enough
jobs to go
around.
22. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 22
Unemployment from real wage
rigidity
Then, firms must ration the
scarce jobs among workers.
Then, firms must ration the
scarce jobs among workers.
Structural unemployment:
The unemployment resulting
from real wage rigidity and
job rationing.
Structural unemployment:
The unemployment resulting
from real wage rigidity and
job rationing.
If real wage is
stuck above
its eq’m level,
then there
aren’t enough
jobs to go
around.
24. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 24
1. The minimum wage
The min. wage may exceed the eq’m wage
of unskilled workers, especially teenagers.
Studies: a 10% increase in min. wage
reduces teen unemployment by 1-3%
But, the min. wage cannot explain the
majority of the natural rate of unemployment,
as most workers’ wages are well above
the min. wage.
25. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 25
2. Labor unions
Unions exercise monopoly power to secure higher
wages for their members.
When the union wage exceeds the eq’m wage,
unemployment results.
Insiders: Employed union workers whose interest
is to keep wages high.
Outsiders: Unemployed non-union workers who
prefer eq’m wages, so there would be enough jobs
for them.
26. 105,508Private sector (total)
20,381Government (total)
14,045Health care
3,312Education
10,951Professional services
6,304Finance, insurance
4,379Transportation
14,973Retail trade
15,518Manufacturing
600Mining
122.3
121.7
115.1
112.7
90.6
90.7
129.2
114.0
107.8
113.7
156.9
8.5%
40.5
8
15.4
3.1
2.1
24.4
5.8
13.7
9.5
13.88,053Construction
wage
ratio
U % of
total
# employed
(1000s)
industry
wage ratio = 100×(union wage)/(nonunion wage) slide 26
Union membership and wage ratios by industry,
2005
27. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 27
3. Efficiency wage theory
Theories in which higher wages increase worker
productivity by:
attracting higher quality job applicants
increasing worker effort, reducing “shirking”
reducing turnover, which is costly to firms
improving health of workers
(in developing countries)
Firms willingly pay above-equilibrium wages to
raise productivity.
Result: structural unemployment.
28. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 28
Question for discussion:
• Use the material we’ve just covered to
come up with a policy or policies
to try to reduce the natural rate of
unemployment.
• Note whether your policy targets frictional
or structural unemployment.
29. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 29
The duration of U.S. unemployment,
average over 1/1990-5/2006
# of weeks
unemployed
# of unemployed
persons
as % of total
# of unemployed
amount of time
these workers spent
unemployed
as % of total time all
workers spent
unemployed
1-4 38% 7.2%
5-14 31% 22.3%
15 or more 31% 70.5%
30. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 30
The duration of unemployment
The data:
More spells of unemployment are short-term
than medium-term or long-term.
Yet, most of the total time spent unemployed
is attributable to the long-term unemployed.
This long-term unemployment is probably
structural and/or due to sectoral shifts among
vastly different industries.
Knowing this is important because it can help
us craft policies that are more likely to work.
31. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 31
TREND: The natural rate rises during
1960-1984, then falls during 1985-
2006
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
32. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 32
EXPLAINING THE TREND:
The minimum wage
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Dollarsperhour
minimum wage in
current dollars
minimum wage
in 2006 dollars
The trend in the
real minimum wage
is similar to that of
the natural rate of
unemployment.
The trend in the
real minimum wage
is similar to that of
the natural rate of
unemployment.
33. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 33
EXPLAINING THE TREND:
Union membership
Since the early
1980s, the natural
rate of unemploy-
ment and union
membership have
both fallen.
But, from 1950s
to about 1980,
the natural rate
rose while union
membership fell.
Since the early
1980s, the natural
rate of unemploy-
ment and union
membership have
both fallen.
But, from 1950s
to about 1980,
the natural rate
rose while union
membership fell.
Union membership
selected years
year percent of labor force
1930 12%
1945 35%
1954 35%
1970 27%
1983 20.1%
2005 12.5%
34. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 34
EXPLAINING THE TREND:
Sectoral shifts
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Price per
barrel of oil,
in 2006
dollars
From mid 1980s to early 2000s,
oil prices less volatile,
so fewer sectoral shifts.
From mid 1980s to early 2000s,
oil prices less volatile,
so fewer sectoral shifts.
35. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 35
EXPLAINING THE TREND:
Demographics
1970s:
The Baby Boomers were young.
Young workers change jobs more frequently
(high value of s).
Late 1980s through today:
Baby Boomers aged. Middle-aged workers
change jobs less often (low s).
37. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 37
The rise in European
unemployment
Shock
Technological progress has shifted labor demand
from unskilled to skilled workers in recent decades.
Effect in United States
An increase in the “skill premium” – the wage gap
between skilled and unskilled workers.
Effect in Europe
Higher unemployment, due to generous govt
benefits for unemployed workers and strong union
presence.
38. CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 38
Percent of workers covered by
collective bargaining
United States 18%
United Kingdom 47
Switzerland 53
Spain 68
Sweden 83
Germany 90
France 92
Austria 98
39. Chapter SummaryChapter Summary
1. The natural rate of unemployment
the long-run average or “steady state” rate of
unemployment
depends on the rates of job separation and job
finding
2. Frictional unemployment
due to the time it takes to match workers with jobs
may be increased by unemployment insurance
CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 39
40. Chapter SummaryChapter Summary
3. Structural unemployment
results from wage rigidity: the real wage remains
above the equilibrium level
caused by: minimum wage, unions, efficiency
wages
4. Duration of unemployment
most spells are short term
but most weeks of unemployment are attributable
to a small number of long-term unemployed
persons
CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 40
41. Chapter SummaryChapter Summary
5. Behavior of the natural rate in the U.S.
rose from 1960 to early 1980s, then fell
possible explanations:
trends in real minimum wage,
union membership, prevalence of sectoral shifts,
and aging of the Baby Boomers
CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 41
42. Chapter SummaryChapter Summary
6. European unemployment
has risen sharply since 1970
probably due to generous unemployment benefits,
strong union presence, and a technology-driven
shift in demand away from unskilled workers
CHAPTER 6 Unemployment slide 42
Editor's Notes
This presentation has lots of data. Some from the textbook (or updated versions of what’s in the textbook), plus some additional data, including data that supports some of the textbook’s key points about the causes of the natural rate of unemployment.
Yet, it is one of the shorter chapters. It is also less difficult than the preceding chapters. So, most professors are able to cover this material more quickly than usual.
&lt;number&gt;
The natural rate of unemployment is the “normal” unemployment rate the economy experiences when it is neither in a recession nor a boom.
Figure 6-1, p.160.
The actual unemployment rate fluctuates considerably over the short run. These fluctuations will be the focus of chapters 9-13 later in the book.
For this chapter, though, our goal is to understand the red line: the so-called “natural rate of unemployment,” or the long-run trend in the unemployment rate.
Source: BLS
Obtained from http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
Unemployment data are based on seasonally-adjusted, monthly unemployment rates for the civilian non-institutional population of the U.S.
The actual u-rate for each quarter is an average of the three monthly unemployment rates in that quarter.
The natural u-rate in a given quarter is estimated by averaging all unemployment rates from 10 years earlier to 10 years later; future unemployment rates are set at 5.5%.
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Section 6-1
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Figure 6-2, p. 161
(note: The size of the boxes containing the words “employed” and “unemployed” are not proportional to the number of people in each category.)
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Sometimes the unemployment caused by sectoral shifts is severe. Due to increasing imports of cheaper foreign-made textiles (particularly since the expiration in 2005 of long-standing quotas on textiles from China), the U.S. textile industry has been in decline for years. Tens of thousands of workers in this industry have lost jobs.
Many of these workers are in their 50s and have worked in this industry for decades. Such workers are unlikely to have the skills necessary to get jobs available in newly booming industries, and they are less likely to invest in the acquisition of the necessary skills for these jobs. Hence, such workers are at greater risk for becoming “discouraged workers.”
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All figures are industry shares in U.S. GDP. “Other industry” includes construction, mining, electricity, water, and gas.
From 1960 to 2000, there are huge changes in all four categories. Manufacturing falls by about a third.
Even the “tiny” category of agriculture drops by nearly two-thirds:from 4.2% to 1.6% of GDP.
These changes represent HUGE structural shifts, which vastly alter the kinds of jobs in demand.
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank.
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Most of the examples on this and the previous slides are big changes that have occurred over many years. These examples give students a good idea of what sectoral shifts are. Perhaps more important for the natural rate, though, are the many smaller changes that occur more frequently. Ours is a dynamic economy: the structure of demand is shifting almost continuously, due to changes in preferences, technology, and the location of production. As a result, there is a near-continual flow of newly frictionally unemployed workers.
Sectoral shifts are distinct from recessions (which also cause unemployment). In recessions, there is a general fall in demand across industries, and the unemployment that results is cyclical. Sectoral shifts, though, are changes in the composition of demand across industries, and lead to frictional unemployment as described above.
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You might want to “hide” (omit) this slide from your presentation if you plan on doing the class discussion in Slide 27, which asks students to think of things the government can do to try to reduce the natural rate of unemployment.
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The text includes a nice case study on unemployment insurance (pp.164-165). It discusses evidence that unemployment insurance reduces the job finding rate.
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Figure 6-3 on p.166.
Abbreviation: “eq’m” = equilibrium
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Other texts define “structural unemployment” as unemployment that results from a mismatch between the skills or locations of workers and the skill or location requirements of job openings. This would occur, for example, if there were a decrease in demand for domestic steel (and hence steel workers) and a simultaneous increase in demand for financial consulting services (and hence employees of such firms).
However, if wages are perfectly flexible, then the decrease in demand for steel workers would simply cause their wage to fall until all were again employed, and the increase in demand for workers in financial firms would simply increase until equilibrium in that labor market was reestablished. So, the critical ingredient for structural unemployment is wage rigidity. Hence Mankiw’s definition.
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See p.165 for more discussion about insiders and outsiders.
The theory has two implications we can confront with data:
1) Union members’ average earnings should be higher than non-union members’ average earnings.
2) The difference between union and non-union wages should be higher in industries that are more heavily unionized (and hence, in which unions have more market power) than in less heavily unionized industries.
The following slide shows 2005 data on union membership and wage ratios by industry in the U.S. The data are consistent with the theory.
For this slide, “union members” includes workers that are in a union or similar worker association, or whose jobs are covered by a union contract.
U % of total = “union members” (as defined above) as a percentage of all workers
Wage ratio = average weekly earnings of “union members” (as defined above) as a percentage of average weekly earnings of nonunion workers.
For example, in the transportation industry, 24.4% of workers are in unions and earn 29.2% more than non-union workers in this industry.
Source: BLS.gov
Note: Due to space constraints on the slide, some industries were omitted.
In 2005, about 13% of all workers in the U.S. were members of unions. The data on this slide show two things:
1) union workers typically earn more than non-union workers (about 22-23% more on average).
2) the greater the percentage of union workers in an industry, the higher the wage ratio is likely to be (the correlation is about 0.5)
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It is useful to pause your lecture at this point and give students an opportunity to apply what you’ve covered so far to answer this policy question.
Possible answers:
Stop raising the (nominal) minimum wage, so that its real value will gradually erode to zero.
Regulate unions (just like other monopolies are regulated) to reduce unions’ impact on wages.
Reduce the generosity of unemployment insurance benefits.
Implement government employment agencies to increase the accessibility of information about job vacancies and available workers.
Increase public funding to help retrain workers displaced from jobs in declining industries.
Suggestions for conducting the discussion:
If you ask for responses immediately after posing the question, it is likely that a small number of students will volunteer to participate - the same students that always do, the ones that are the best prepared and/or the quickest thinkers.
To elicit participation from a larger number of students, I suggest the following:
Pair students up. Allow 10 minutes for the students, working in their pairs, to come up with answers to the question. During this time, circulate around the room and ask the pairs if you can be of assistance, either to help them get started or give feedback on what they’re coming up with. Then, reconvene the class and ask for volunteers.
Doing this increases the quantity and quality of participation: students who would not otherwise participate are more likely to do so because they have had time to formulate their answers and have had a chance to run their answers by a classmate. Additionally, even students who don’t participate will have at least had the opportunity to discuss the question with one other student.
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) and author’s calculations.
How to interpret this data:
The second column shows the percentage of all unemployed workers whose spell lasted the number of weeks shown (average over January 1990 to May 2006).
The third column shows the share of total time spent unemployed attributed to workers in that category. I calculated it as a ratio. The denominator is the total number of weeks spent unemployed, obtained by multiplying the total number of unemployed persons by the number of weeks of the average spell of unemployment. The numerator is, for each category, the number of people in that category times the duration of the average spell of unemployment for that category. (I assume the duration of the average spell is the midpoint of each category, and 30 weeks for the “15 or more” category. I have tried different assumptions and the results are similar to those shown.)
7.2% of total time spent unemployed was spent by people who were unemployed for less than 5 weeks.
70.5% of total time spent unemployed is attributed to people who were unemployed for 15 or weeks or longer.
The point of this data: More spells of unemployment are short term (38%) than medium term (31%) or long term (31%). But, most of the time spent unemployed is long-term.
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Regarding the point about structural unemployment and sectoral shifts:
Structural unemployment - workers are waiting for jobs to become available, but there just aren’t enough jobs to go around; hence, this can be long-term unemployment.
Sectoral shifts across vastly different industries, e.g. a shift in demand from textiles to software design; obviously, jobs in these industries require vastly different skill sets. Sectoral shifts can occur among similar industries (e.g., demand shifts from desktop to laptop computers), but this is less likely to produce long-term unemployment.
The purpose of this slide is to establish the trend behavior of the natural rate in recent decades: rising until the early 80s, then falling from the mid-80s through the early 2000s. The following slides will show that the theories in this chapter are (mostly) consistent with the trend behavior of the natural rate.
The graph on this slide is similar to Figure 6-1 (near the beginning of this PowerPoint presentation). However, since we are now focusing on the trend behavior in the natural rate, I have altered the vertical axis to make the trend more apparent, and I’ve dimmed the actual unemployment rate data – now light gray.
The trend in the real minimum wage rises until the mid to late 1970s, then falls. This is fairly similar to the trend of the natural rate of unemployment.
The U.S. Department of Labor has lots of good information on the minimum wage, at: http://www.dol.gov/dol/topic/wages/minimumwage.htm
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source: AFL-CIO website http://www.aflcio.org
and, for the 2005 figure, www.BLS.gov
Also see
http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/steclab.html#unions good set of links to info on labor unions
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/union2.toc.htm The BLS’ annual news release of info on union membership, earnings.
Earlier in the chapter, we saw cross-sectional data that showed a positive correlation between the union wage premium and union members’ share of the labor force across industries.
We would expect that, other things equal, changes over time in the aggregate share of unions in employment should be associated with similar changes in unions’ impact on average wages, and hence on the natural rate of unemployment.
In plain English, we would expect that the decline in the extent of unionization shown on this slide would correspond to a decline in the natural rate of unemployment. Unfortunately for the theory, this is only true for the time period beginning in the early 1980s, when the natural rate started coming down. From the 1950s through 1980, the natural rate rose, but union membership fell.
Does this mean the theory is not relevant? Not necessarily, as other things (other determinants of the natural rate) were not constant during this time period.
source: Dow Jones & Company
obtained from: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
Earlier in the chapter, we learned that sectoral shifts are a source of job separations and lead to frictional unemployment. One would expect that a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of sectoral shifts would be associated with fewer job separations, less frictional unemployment, and a lower natural rate of unemployment.
Unfortunately, there is no single “index of sectoral shocks.” However, we know that large changes in oil prices are one source of sectoral shocks. A significant fall in the price of oil causes a decrease in demand for workers at oil fields in Oklahoma and Texas, and an increase in demand for workers at factories that produce SUVs. A significant increase in oil prices would do the opposite.
The graph shows data on the price of oil since 1970.
During 1970-1985, the real price of oil fluctuated between $18 and $98. Also during this time, the natural rate of unemployment was rising.
During 1986-2002, the real price of oil fluctuated between $20 and $40, except for a brief spike during the Gulf War. Also during this time, the natural rate of unemployment was falling.
The data are roughly consistent with the notion that sectoral shifts contribute to the natural rate.
Note the recent increase in oil prices: from about $22 to $70 during 2002-2006:1. This represents a sectoral shift and may contribute to an increase in the natural rate of unemployment. Or maybe not, as oil consumption per dollar of GDP is lower today than in the 1970s and 1980s.
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For details on this, plus one other explanation involving productivity, see pp.174-175.
Figure 6-4, p.177
Source: bls.gov, obtained from
http://www.bls.gov/fls/home.htm
Table 6-1, p.169
Source: Same as text (OECD Economic Outlook 2004, as reported in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005.)