Amidst such difficult domestic and external
conditions, the Government’s revenue
mobilization efforts have been successful in
the first eight months of 2021
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
2. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 2
Context
Chapter 9 introduced the model of aggregate
demand and supply.
Chapter 10 developed the IS-LM model,
the basis of the aggregate demand curve.
3. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 3
In this chapter, you will learn…
how to use the IS-LM model to analyze the effects
of shocks, fiscal policy, and monetary policy
how to derive the aggregate demand curve from
the IS-LM model
several theories about what caused the
Great Depression
4. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 4
The intersection determines
the unique combination of Y and r
that satisfies equilibrium in both markets.
The LM curve represents
money market equilibrium.
Equilibrium in the IS -LM model
The IS curve represents
equilibrium in the goods
market.
( ) ( )Y C Y T I r G= − + +
( , )M P L r Y= IS
Y
r
LM
r1
Y1
5. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 5
Policy analysis with the IS -LM
model
We can use the IS-LM
model to analyze the
effects of
• fiscal policy: G and/or T
• monetary policy: M
( ) ( )Y C Y T I r G= − + +
( , )M P L r Y=
IS
Y
r
LM
r1
Y1
6. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 6
causing output &
income to rise.
IS1
An increase in government
purchases
1. IS curve shifts right
Y
r
LM
r1
Y1
1
by
1 MPC
G∆
−
IS2
Y2
r2
1.
2. This raises money
demand, causing the
interest rate to rise…
2.
3. …which reduces investment,
so the final increase in Y
1
is smaller than
1 MPC
G∆
−
3.
7. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 7
IS1
1.
A tax cut
Y
r
LM
r1
Y1
IS2
Y2
r2
Consumers save
(1−MPC) of the tax cut,
so the initial boost in
spending is smaller for ∆T
than for an equal ∆G…
and the IS curve shifts by
MPC
1 MPC
T
−
∆
−
1.
2.
2.…so the effects on r
and Y are smaller for ∆T
than for an equal ∆G.
2.
8. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 8
2. …causing the
interest rate to fall
IS
Monetary policy: An increase in
M
1. ∆M > 0 shifts
the LM curve down
(or to the right)
Y
r
LM1
r1
Y1
Y2
r2
LM2
3. …which increases
investment, causing
output & income to
rise.
9. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 9
Interaction between
monetary & fiscal policy
Model:
Monetary & fiscal policy variables
(M, G, and T) are exogenous.
Real world:
Monetary policymakers may adjust M
in response to changes in fiscal policy,
or vice versa.
Such interaction may alter the impact of the
original policy change.
10. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 10
The Fed’s response to ∆G > 0
Suppose Congress increases G.
Possible Fed responses:
1. hold M constant
2. hold r constant
3. hold Y constant
In each case, the effects of the ∆G
are different:
11. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 11
If Congress raises G,
the IS curve shifts right.
IS1
Response 1: Hold M constant
Y
r
LM1
r1
Y1
IS2
Y2
r2
If Fed holds M constant,
then LM curve doesn’t
shift.
Results:
2 1Y Y Y∆ = −
2 1r r r∆ = −
12. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 12
If Congress raises G,
the IS curve shifts right.
IS1
Response 2: Hold r constant
Y
r
LM1
r1
Y1
IS2
Y2
r2
To keep r constant,
Fed increases M
to shift LM curve right.
3 1Y Y Y∆ = −
0r∆ =
LM2
Y3
Results:
13. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 13
IS1
Response 3: Hold Y constant
Y
r
LM1
r1
IS2
Y2
r2
To keep Y constant,
Fed reduces M
to shift LM curve left.
0Y∆ =
3 1r r r∆ = −
LM2
Results:
Y1
r3
If Congress raises G,
the IS curve shifts right.
14. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 14
Estimates of fiscal policy
multipliers
from the DRI macroeconometric model
Assumption about
monetary policy
Estimated
value of
∆Y/∆G
Fed holds nominal
interest rate constant
Fed holds money
supply constant
1.93
0.60
Estimated
value of
∆Y/∆T
−1.19
−0.26
15. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 15
Shocks in the IS -LM model
IS shocks: exogenous changes in the
demand for goods & services.
Examples:
stock market boom or crash
⇒ change in households’ wealth
⇒ ∆C
change in business or consumer
confidence or expectations
⇒ ∆I and/or ∆C
16. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 16
Shocks in the IS -LM model
LM shocks: exogenous changes in the
demand for money.
Examples:
a wave of credit card fraud increases
demand for money.
more ATMs or the Internet reduce money
demand.
17. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 17
EXERCISE:
Analyze shocks with the IS-LM model
Use the IS-LM model to analyze the effects of
1. a boom in the stock market that makes
consumers wealthier.
2. after a wave of credit card fraud, consumers
using cash more frequently in transactions.
For each shock,
a. use the IS-LM diagram to show the effects of
the shock on Y and r.
b. determine what happens to C, I, and the
unemployment rate.
18. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 18
CASE STUDY:
The U.S. recession of 2001
During 2001,
2.1 million people lost their jobs,
as unemployment rose from 3.9% to 5.8%.
GDP growth slowed to 0.8%
(compared to 3.9% average annual growth
during 1994-2000).
19. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 19
CASE STUDY:
The U.S. recession of 2001
Causes: 1) Stock market decline ⇒ ↓C
300
600
900
1200
1500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Index(1942=100)
Standard & Poor’s
500
20. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 20
CASE STUDY:
The U.S. recession of 2001
Causes: 2) 9/11
increased uncertainty
fall in consumer & business confidence
result: lower spending, IS curve shifted left
Causes: 3) Corporate accounting scandals
Enron, WorldCom, etc.
reduced stock prices, discouraged investment
21. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 21
CASE STUDY:
The U.S. recession of 2001
Fiscal policy response: shifted IS curve right
tax cuts in 2001 and 2003
spending increases
airline industry bailout
NYC reconstruction
Afghanistan war
22. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 22
CASE STUDY:
The U.S. recession of 2001
Monetary policy response: shifted LM curve right
Three-month
T-Bill Rate
Three-month
T-Bill Rate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
01/01/200004/02/200007/03/200010/03/200001/03/200104/05/200107/06/200110/06/200101/06/200204/08/200207/09/200210/09/200201/09/200304/11/2003
23. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 23
What is the Fed’s policy
instrument?
The news media commonly report the Fed’s policy
changes as interest rate changes, as if the Fed
has direct control over market interest rates.
In fact, the Fed targets the federal funds rate –
the interest rate banks charge one another on
overnight loans.
The Fed changes the money supply and shifts the
LM curve to achieve its target.
Other short-term rates typically move with the
federal funds rate.
24. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 24
What is the Fed’s policy
instrument?
Why does the Fed target interest rates instead of
the money supply?
1) They are easier to measure than the money
supply.
2) The Fed might believe that LM shocks are
more prevalent than IS shocks. If so, then
targeting the interest rate stabilizes income
better than targeting the money supply.
(See end-of-chapter Problem 7 on p.328.)
25. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 25
IS-LM and aggregate demand
So far, we’ve been using the IS-LM model to
analyze the short run, when the price level is
assumed fixed.
However, a change in P would
shift LM and therefore affect Y.
The aggregate demand curve
(introduced in Chap. 9) captures this
relationship between P and Y.
26. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 26
Y1Y2
Deriving the AD curve
Y
r
Y
P
IS
LM(P1)
LM(P2)
AD
P1
P2
Y2 Y1
r2
r1
Intuition for slope
of AD curve:
↑P ⇒ ↓(M/P)
⇒ LM shifts left
⇒ ↑r
⇒ ↓I
⇒ ↓Y
27. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 27
Monetary policy and the AD
curve
Y
P
IS
LM(M2/P1)
LM(M1/P1)
AD1
P1
Y1
Y1
Y2
Y2
r1
r2
The Fed can increase
aggregate demand:
↑M ⇒ LM shifts right
AD2
Y
r
⇒ ↓r
⇒ ↑I
⇒ ↑Y at each
value of P
28. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 28
Y2
Y2
r2
Y1
Y1
r1
Fiscal policy and the AD curve
Y
r
Y
P
IS1
LM
AD1
P1
Expansionary fiscal policy
(↑G and/or ↓T)
increases agg. demand:
↓T ⇒ ↑C
⇒ IS shifts right
⇒ ↑Y at each value
of P
AD2
IS2
29. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 29
IS-LM and AD-AS
in the short run & long run
Recall from Chapter 9: The force that moves the
economy from the short run to the long run
is the gradual adjustment of prices.
Y Y>
Y Y<
Y Y=
rise
fall
remain constant
In the short-run
equilibrium, if
then over time, the
price level will
30. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 30
The SR and LR effects of an IS shock
A negative IS shock
shifts IS and AD left,
causing Y to fall.
A negative IS shock
shifts IS and AD left,
causing Y to fall.
Y
r
Y
P LRAS
Y
LRAS
Y
IS1
SRAS1P1
LM(P1)
IS2
AD2
AD1
31. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 31
The SR and LR effects of an IS shock
Y
r
Y
P LRAS
Y
LRAS
Y
IS1
SRAS1P1
LM(P1)
IS2
AD2
AD1
In the new short-run
equilibrium,
In the new short-run
equilibrium, Y Y<
32. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 32
The SR and LR effects of an IS shock
Y
r
Y
P LRAS
Y
LRAS
Y
IS1
SRAS1P1
LM(P1)
IS2
AD2
AD1
In the new short-run
equilibrium,
In the new short-run
equilibrium, Y Y<
Over time, P gradually
falls, which causes
• SRAS to move down.
• M/P to increase,
which causes LM
to move down.
Over time, P gradually
falls, which causes
• SRAS to move down.
• M/P to increase,
which causes LM
to move down.
33. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 33
AD2
The SR and LR effects of an IS shock
Y
r
Y
P LRAS
Y
LRAS
Y
IS1
SRAS1P1
LM(P1)
IS2
AD1
SRAS2P2
LM(P2)
Over time, P gradually
falls, which causes
• SRAS to move down.
• M/P to increase,
which causes LM
to move down.
Over time, P gradually
falls, which causes
• SRAS to move down.
• M/P to increase,
which causes LM
to move down.
34. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 34
AD2
SRAS2P2
LM(P2)
The SR and LR effects of an IS shock
Y
r
Y
P LRAS
Y
LRAS
Y
IS1
SRAS1P1
LM(P1)
IS2
AD1
This process continues
until economy reaches a
long-run equilibrium with
This process continues
until economy reaches a
long-run equilibrium with
Y Y=
35. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 35
EXERCISE:
Analyze SR & LR effects of
∆M
a. Draw the IS-LM and AD-AS
diagrams as shown here.
b. Suppose Fed increases M.
Show the short-run effects
on your graphs.
c. Show what happens in the
transition from the short run
to the long run.
d. How do the new long-run
equilibrium values of the
endogenous variables
compare to their initial
values?
Y
r
Y
P LRAS
Y
LRAS
Y
IS
SRAS1P1
LM(M1/P1)
AD1
36. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 36
The Great Depression
Unemployment
(right scale)
Real GNP
(left scale)
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939
billionsof1958dollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
percentoflaborforce
37. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 37
THE SPENDING HYPOTHESIS:
Shocks to the IS curve
asserts that the Depression was largely due to
an exogenous fall in the demand for goods &
services – a leftward shift of the IS curve.
evidence:
output and interest rates both fell, which is what
a leftward IS shift would cause.
38. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 38
THE SPENDING HYPOTHESIS:
Reasons for the IS shift
Stock market crash ⇒ exogenous ↓C
Oct-Dec 1929: S&P 500 fell 17%
Oct 1929-Dec 1933: S&P 500 fell 71%
Drop in investment
“correction” after overbuilding in the 1920s
widespread bank failures made it harder to obtain
financing for investment
Contractionary fiscal policy
Politicians raised tax rates and cut spending to
combat increasing deficits.
39. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 39
THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS:
A shock to the LM curve
asserts that the Depression was largely due to
huge fall in the money supply.
evidence:
M1 fell 25% during 1929-33.
But, two problems with this hypothesis:
P fell even more, so M/P actually rose slightly
during 1929-31.
nominal interest rates fell, which is the opposite
of what a leftward LM shift would cause.
40. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 40
THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN:
The effects of falling prices
asserts that the severity of the Depression was
due to a huge deflation:
P fell 25% during 1929-33.
This deflation was probably caused by the fall in
M, so perhaps money played an important role
after all.
In what ways does a deflation affect the
economy?
41. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 41
THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN:
The effects of falling prices
The stabilizing effects of deflation:
↓P ⇒ ↑(M/P) ⇒ LM shifts right ⇒ ↑Y
Pigou effect:
↓P ⇒ ↑(M/P)
⇒ consumers’ wealth ↑
⇒ ↑C
⇒ IS shifts right
⇒ ↑Y
42. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 42
THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN:
The effects of falling prices
The destabilizing effects of expected deflation:
↓πe
⇒ r ↑ for each value of i
⇒ I ↓ because I = I (r)
⇒ planned expenditure & agg. demand ↓
⇒ income & output ↓
43. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 43
THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN:
The effects of falling prices
The destabilizing effects of unexpected deflation:
debt-deflation theory
↓P (if unexpected)
⇒ transfers purchasing power from borrowers to
lenders
⇒ borrowers spend less,
lenders spend more
⇒ if borrowers’ propensity to spend is larger than
lenders’, then aggregate spending falls,
the IS curve shifts left, and Y falls
44. CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 44
Why another Depression is
unlikely
Policymakers (or their advisors) now know
much more about macroeconomics:
The Fed knows better than to let M fall
so much, especially during a contraction.
Fiscal policymakers know better than to raise
taxes or cut spending during a contraction.
Federal deposit insurance makes widespread
bank failures very unlikely.
Automatic stabilizers make fiscal policy
expansionary during an economic downturn.
45. Chapter SummaryChapter Summary
1. IS-LM model
a theory of aggregate demand
exogenous: M, G, T,
P exogenous in short run, Y in long run
endogenous: r,
Y endogenous in short run, P in long run
IS curve: goods market equilibrium
LM curve: money market equilibrium
CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 45
46. Chapter SummaryChapter Summary
2. AD curve
shows relation between P and the IS-LM model’s
equilibrium Y.
negative slope because
↑P ⇒ ↓(M/P ) ⇒ ↑r ⇒ ↓I ⇒ ↓Y
expansionary fiscal policy shifts IS curve right,
raises income, and shifts AD curve right.
expansionary monetary policy shifts LM curve right,
raises income, and shifts AD curve right.
IS or LM shocks shift the AD curve.
CHAPTER 11 Aggregate Demand II slide 46
Editor's Notes
This is a very substantial chapter, and among the most challenging in the text. I encourage you to go over this chapter a little more slowly than average, or at least recommend to your students that they study it extra carefully.
I have included a number of in-class exercises to give students immediate reinforcement of concepts as they are covered, and also to break up the lecture. If you need to get through the material more quickly, you can omit some or all of these exercises (perhaps assigning them as homeworks, instead).
A graph unfolds on slides 29-33. If you create handouts of this file for your students (or create a PDF version for them to download from the web), you might consider omitting slides 30 and 32 to save paper, as they contain intermediate animations.
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Review/recap of the very end of Chapter 10.
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Chapter 10 showed that an increase in G causes the IS curve to shift to the right by (G)/(1-MPC).
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Chapter 10 used the Keynesian Cross to show that a decrease in T causes the IS curve to shift to the right by (-MPCT)/(1-MPC).
If your students ask why the IS curve shifts to the right when there’s a negative sign in the expression for the shift, remind them that T &lt; 0 for a tax cut, so the expression actually is positive.
The term showing the distance of the shift in the IS curve is almost the same as in the case of a government spending increase, where the numerator of the fraction equals (1) for government spending rather than (-MPC) for the tax cut. Here’s the intuition: Every dollar of a government spending increase adds to aggregate spending. However, for tax cuts, the fraction (1-MPC) of the tax cut leaks into saving, so aggregate spending only rises by MPC times the tax cut.
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Chapter 10 showed that an increase in M shifts the LM curve to the right.
Here is a richer explanation for the LM shift:
The increase in M causes the interest rate to fall. [People like to keep optimal proportions of money and bonds in their portfolios; if money is increased, then people try to re-attain their optimal proportions by “exchanging” some of the money for bonds: they use some of the extra money to buy bonds. This increase in the demand for bonds drives up the price of bonds -- and causes interest rates to fall (since interest rates are inversely related to bond prices).
The fall in the interest rate induces an increase in investment demand, which causes output and income to increase.
The increase in income causes money demand to increase, which increases the interest rate (though doesn’t increase it all the way back to its initial value; instead, this effect simply reduces the total decrease in the interest rate).
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The preceding slides show that the impact of fiscal policy on GDP depends on the Fed’s response (or lack thereof). This slide shows estimates of the fiscal policy multipliers under different assumptions about monetary policy; these estimates are consistent with the theoretical results on the preceding slides.
First, the slide shows estimates of the government spending multiplier for the two different monetary policy scenarios. Then, the slide reveals the tax multiplier estimates. (If you wish, you can turn off the animation so that everything appearing on the slide appears at one time. Just click on the “Slide Show” pull-down menu, then on “Custom animation…”, then uncheck all of the boxes next to the elements of the screen that you do not wish to be animated.
Regarding the estimates: First, note that the estimates of the fiscal policy multipliers are smaller (in absolute value) when the money supply is held constant than when the interest rate is held constant. This is consistent with the results from the IS-LM model presented in the preceding few slides.
Second, notice that the tax multiplier is smaller than the government spending multiplier in each of the monetary policy scenarios. This should make sense from material presented earlier in this chapter: the government spending multiplier (for a constant money supply) is 1/(1-MPC), while the tax multiplier is only (-MPC)/(1-MPC).
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Earlier slides showed how to use the IS-LM model to analyze fiscal and monetary policy. Now is a good time for students to get some hands-on practice with the model. Also, note that part (b) helps students learn that shocks and policies can potentially affect all of the model’s endogenous variables, not just the ones that are measured on the axes.
After working this exercise, your students will better understand the case study on the 2001 U.S. recession that immediately follows.
Suggestion: Instead of having students work on these exercises individually, get them into pairs. One student of each pair works on the first shock, the other student works on the second shock. Give them 5 minutes to work individually on the analysis of the shock. Then, allow 10 minutes (5 for each student) for students to present their results to their partners. This activity gives students immediate application and reinforcement of the concepts, so students learn them better and will then better understand and appreciate the remainder of your lecture on Chapter 11.
Answers:
1a. The IS curve shifts to the right, because consumers feel they can afford to spend more given this exogenous increase in their wealth. This causes Y and r to rise.
1b. C rises for two reasons: the stock market boom, and the increase in income. I falls, because r is higher. u falls, because firms hire more workers to produce the extra output that is demanded.
2a. (This is a continuation of the in-class exercise at the end of the PowerPoint presentation of Chapter 10.) The increase in money demand shifts the LM curve to the left: We are assuming that all other exogenous variables, including M and P, remain unchanged, so an increase in money demand causes an increase in the value of r associated with each value of Y (this can be seen easily using the Liquidity Preference diagram). This translates to an upward (i.e. leftward) shift in the LM curve. This shift causes Y to fall and r to rise.
2b. The fall in income causes a fall in C. The increase in r causes a fall in I. The fall in Y causes an increase in u.
If you taught with the PowerPoints I did for the previous (orange) edition of this book, you will find that I have redone this case study. In addition to updating it to match the textbook, I have added two time-series graphs showing stock prices and the effects of the Fed’s policy response on short-term interest rates.
Starting in mid-2000, the S&P 500 begins a downward trend. The fall in stock prices eroded the wealth of millions of U.S. consumers. They responded by reducing consumption.
The war was a response to the 9/11 attacks, not to the recession. But wars involve significant fiscal policy expansion, which increases aggregate demand and alleviates or ends recessions.
Easier monetary policy shifted the LM curve to the right, causing interest rates to fall, as shown in this graph.
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Chapter 18 discusses monetary policy in detail.
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It might be useful to explain to students the reason why we draw P1 before drawing the LM curve:
The position of the LM curve depends on the value of M/P. M is an exogenous policy variable. So, if P is low (like P1 in the lower panel of the diagram), then M/P is relatively high, so the LM curve is over toward the right in the upper diagram. If P is high, like P2, then M/P is relatively low, so the LM curve is more toward the left.
Because the value of P affects the position of the LM curve, we label the LM curves in the upper panel as LM(P1) and LM(P2).
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It’s worth taking a moment to explain why we are holding P fixed at P1:
To find out whether the AD curve shifts to the left or right, we need to find out what happens to the value of Y associated with any given value of P. This is not to say that the equilibrium value of P will remain fixed after the policy change (though, in fact, we are assuming P is fixed in the short run). We just want to see what happens to the AD curve.
Once we know how the AD curve shifts, we can then add the AS curves (short- or long-run) to find out what, if anything, happens to P (in the short- or long-run).
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The next few slides put our IS-LM-AD in the context of the bigger picture - the AD-AS model in the short-run and long-run, which was introduced in Chapter 9.
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Abbreviation:
SR = short run, LR = long run
The analysis that begins on this slide continues on the following slides.
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A good thing to do: Go back through this experiment again, and see if your students can figure out what is happening to the other endogenous variables (C, I, u) in the short run and long run.
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This exercise has two objectives:
1. To give students immediate reinforcement of the preceding concepts.
2. To show them that money is neutral in the long run, just like in chapter 4.
You might have your students try other exercises using this framework:
* the short-run and long-run effects of expansionary fiscal policy. Have them compare the long-run results in this framework with the results they obtained when doing the same experiment in Chapter 3 (the loanable funds model).
* Immediately after a negative shock pushes output below its natural rate, show how monetary or fiscal policy can be used to restore full-employment immediately (i.e., without waiting for prices to adjust).
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This chart presents data from Table 11-2 on pp.318-9 of the text. For data sources, see notes accompanying that table.
Things to note:
1. The magnitude of the fall in output and increase in unemployment. In 1933, the unemployment rate is over 25%!!
2. There’s a very strong negative correlation between output and unemployment.
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In item 2, I’m using the term “correction” in the stock market sense.
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The textbook (starting p.322) uses an “extended” IS-LM model, which includes both the nominal interest rate (measured on the vertical axis) and the real interest rate (which equals the nominal rate less expected inflation). Because money demand depends on the nominal rate, which is measured on the vertical axis, the change in expected inflation doesn’t shift the LM curve. However, investment depends on the real interest rate, so the fall in expected inflation shifts the IS curve: each value of i is now associated with a higher value of r, which reduces investment and shifts the IS curve to the left. Results: income falls, i falls, and r rises --- which is exactly what happened from 1929 to 1931 (see table 11-2 on pp.318-9).
This slide gives the basic intuition, which students often can grasp more quickly and easily than the graphical analysis. After you cover this material in your lecture, it will be easier for your students to grasp the analysis on pp.322-23.
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Examples of automatic stabilizers:
the income tax: people pay less taxes automatically if their income falls
unemployment insurance: prevents income - and hence spending - from falling as much during a downturn
This topic is discussed in Chapter 14.