The document provides an economic update and outlook for December 2011. It discusses the ongoing debt crisis in the Eurozone and whether the Euro will survive. It notes the ideological differences between Germany and other countries in their approaches to dealing with the crisis. Domestically, it comments on the reversal in stance by the Indian opposition on retail FDI and the potential impact on economic momentum. Inflation is expected to fall by the end of the fiscal year. The outlook is cautiously positive on long-term debt as interest rates may fall over the next 2-3 years.

1. ADVICE for the WISE
Newsletter –December’11

2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 11
Forex 13
Commodities 14
Real Estate 15
2

3. From the Desk of the CIO…
Dear Investor,
There seems to be a certain politico-economic brinkmanship that
Germany and rest of the Eurozone countries seem to be engaged
The million dollar (more like Trillion Euro!) question everyone seems to
in. This is precisely what makes us worry about the future of Euro
be asking is “will the Euro survive?” We believe that Euro’s survival has
– and there is that small chance that the Germans may push their
become less certain than it was a month ago. Most of this is owing to
fiscal prudence plans a little too far. This is what might cause the
the absence of a Fed-like response in Euro-zone to the present crisis.
break-up of the Euro.
This goes back to the deep-rooted ideological differences amongst the
Anglo-Saxon economies and Germany. While the former believe in the
The Indian domestic market sentiment has been less than
efficacy of monetary policy in managing the fallouts of crises, the latter
cheerful due to the political logjam over retail FDI. The volte-face
insists on fiscal prudence as the primary solution to the present crisis.
by the opposition on their stance about retail FDI reminds us of
Hence the western economists and leaders are busy cooking up one
the age-old tendency within Indian politics for the opposition to
idea after another of how Eurozone can go about fighting the crisis
oppose everything nearly blindly. How the government deals with
with monetary policy tools – including Eurobonds, ECB’s Euro-printing
this set-back and how much of its new-found resolve to continue
and mutualization of sovereign debt within Eurozone. German
with reforms survives this bickering is what will drive the
government on the other hand is skeptical of fighting debt problems
macroeconomic momentum in next couple of quarters. We
with more debt as well as continuing with “financialization” which
expect a muddle-through scenario to continue for the next few
started most of the trouble in the first place. Apparently frustrated
months.
with Germany’s resolve to avoid printing of Euro by ECB, the group of 6
central banks went ahead and offered low cost dollar credit lines to
Inflation has fortunately remained out of the limelight – with the
European banks. This did prop up equity markets globally towards the
RBI governor explicitly predicting a fall in inflation by the end of
end of November – also fuelling speculation that the end might be in
FY12. We have now become cautiously positive on long term
sight for the debt crisis in Euro-zone.
debt. In the next 2-3 year horizon it would be a good idea to bet
on interest rates to fall – this is best done through zero coupon
Some think that having the house on fire is a wrong time to be arguing
long term quasi-sovereign bonds like NABARD and REC. The
about repairing of the fire engine. Others suggest that the most
expected returns can range between 8-10% p.a. if interest rates
important reforms happen typically during times of crisis (remember
do not fall and 15%-20% p.a. if they do fall by 1%-2% over next 2-
1991 in India!)
3 years.
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.18”
3

4. Economic Update - Snapshot of
Key Markets
Sensex Nifty
120
As on 30st Change over Change over 115
110
S&P 500 Nikkei 225
Nov 2011 last month last year 105
100
95
BSE Sensex 16123 (8.9%) (17.4%) 90
85
80
Equity S&P Nifty 4832 (9.3%) (17.6%) 75
markets S&P 500 (4.6%) 1.2%
1195
9.30
Nikkei 225 8435 (6.2%) (15.1%) 8.80
8.30
10 yr Gsec
7.80
7.30
6.80
10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.73% (29 bps) 54 bps
31-Dec-10
31-Aug-11
30-Nov-10
31-May-11
31-Jul-11
31-Oct-11
30-Nov-11
28-Feb-11
31-Mar-11
30-Sep-11
31-Jan-11
30-Jun-11
30-Apr-11
Debt Markets Call Markets 8.55% 0 bps 295 bps 31000
29000
Fixed Deposit* 9.25% 0 bps 225 bps 27000
25000
23000
Gold
21000
19000
17000
RICI Index 3693 (1.2%) 2.0% 15000
Commodity
Gold (`/10gm) 28841 6.0% 40.7%
markets 54.00
Crude Oil ($/bbl) 111.5 3% 29% 52.00
50.00
48.00
`/$
46.00
44.00
42.00
40.00
38.00
Forex Rupee/Dollar 52.2 (6.3%) (11.7%)
31-May-11
28-Feb-11
31-Mar-11
30-Sep-11
31-Jan-11
30-Jun-11
31-Dec-10
30-Apr-11
31-Aug-11
30-Nov-10
31-Oct-11
30-Nov-11
31-Jul-11
markets Yen/Dollar 77.9 (2.8%) 8.0%
* Indicates SBI one-year FD
4

5. Economy Update - Global
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, rose to 56.0 in November up from 40.9
in October signalling that consumers' apprehension regarding the short-term outlook for
US business conditions, jobs and income prospects has eased considerably.
• Unemployment rate has fallen to 8.6% for the month of November from 9.0% in October .
• The final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.4 in November, from 47.1 in
October, its lowest level since July 2009 and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate.
The PMI has signalled contraction in each of the past four months.
Europe • Greece's austerity-fuelled recession drove the budget deficit wider in October. The central
government deficit grew by an annual 11 percent to 20.10 billion euros ($27.19 billion) in
the first 10 months of the year
• The seasonally adjusted Markit /JMMA Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 49.1 in
November, down from 50.6 in October, signalling a renewed deterioration in
Japan manufacturing sector operating conditions.
• Unemployment rate increased to 4.5% in October from 4.1% in Sept’11.
Emerging • China’s HSBC PMI Index dropped at 47.7 in November from 51.0 in October, signalling a
economies solid deterioration in manufacturing sector performance. Combined with faster than
expected easing in inflation implies that growth is set to overtake inflation.
5

6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
12.0% IIP monthly data • India's economic growth rate slowed down further to 6.9
10.0%
per cent in the second quarter (July-September) of FY12 as
8.0%
compared to 8.9 per cent achieved in the same quarter of
6.0%
the previous financial year. The GDP growth rate for Q1 and
4.0%
Q2 FY11 was revised downwards to 8.1 and 8.4 respectively
2.0%
from the previous estimates of 9.3 and 8.9%.
0.0%
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug Sep Oct
10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 • This was attributed largely to the negative growth in
‘mining and quarrying’ and steep fall in the growth of
• IIP figure declined for the third consecutive month to 1.9 per manufacturing sector, as compared to their levels of
cent in September compared to 4% in the last month. During growth in Q2 of 2010-11.
the April-September period this fiscal, IIP growth stood at 5
per cent-against 8.2 per cent in the same period last year. The • A steady rise in interest rates combined with stubbornly
mining sector saw negative growth at (5.6%) in September’11 high inflation has impacted demand and credit sensitive
as against the 4.3% growth in output in September’10. Capital sectors. The Reserve Bank has also reduced its forecast for
goods registered negative growth at (6.8%) in September’11 real GDP growth from 8 to 7.6 per cent. The uncertainty in
as against the 7.2% growth in September’10. The steep the global markets may also impact the exports and the
decline in the capital goods segment highlights the service sector of the economy hence making the growth
deceleration in the manufacturing sector. target difficult to achieve.
GDP growth
• The Industrial output in September’11 grew at the lowest rate 9.0 8.6 8.4 8.3
8.1
in the last two years, reflecting the slowdown in the country’s 8.0
7.8 7.7
pace of economic growth. In addition to the high interest 6.9
7.0
6.0
rates that has been impacting economic activity, the weak 6.0
global demand too has been stated to be intensifying the 5.0
slowdown in the economy. In addition, persistent high 4.0
inflation, rising input costs widening deficits and the FY10(Q3) FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2)
weakening currency have been contributing in impeding the
growth in industrial output.
6

7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
• The Wholesale Price Index was reported at 9.73
30.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
percent in Oct’2011 vis-à-vis 9.72% in
25.0% September‘11. Food and fuel prices posted
20.0% double-digit growth of 11.06% and 14.79%
15.0% respectively. The manufacturing WPI steadied
10.0% above 7.66 percent from 7.69% last month
5.0%
• With the monetary tightening stance by RBI, we
do expect WPI inflation numbers to moderate
• The credit grew 19.6% on a y-o-y basis while out eventually.
deposits grew at ~18% in October.
• Owing to the successive increase in the cost of
borrowing, a moderation has been seen in the credit 10.0% Wholesale Price Index
growth and the current estimate for the Fiscal is ~
9.5%
17-19%.
9.0%
• On account of the slowing growth in the economy 8.5%
and the expected decrease in inflation by December, 8.0%
it is expected that the RBI will pause any interest 7.5%
rate hikes.
* End of period figures
7

8. Equity Outlook
The month of November saw a sharp fall of ten percent in Indian equity markets. There was significant amount of volatility on the
back of fresh concerns about the fiscal health of Euro area countries. FIIs sold almost a billion dollars worth of their holdings. Rupee
weakened sharply against the dollar which added to the nervousness.
In Europe, sentiment turned for the worse after the German bond auction received a poor response. There were concerns that the
financial health of peripheral euro area countries has started affecting even the core of Germany and France. The French bond yields
have continued to spike and the spread between French and German yields in now close to 2%. There is an increasing amount of talk
about French rating being downgraded. The five and ten year Italian bond yields have spiked up and remained above 7%. Italy is
facing an enormous amount to pressure to cut its deficit and saw a new government being sworn in. However, investors continue to
wait for a definitive move towards the euro bonds barring which volatility in Europe might continue for an elongated period of time.
Final number for third quarter GDP data in US came in at 2%, below the earlier estimated 2.5%. Macro-economic indicators in US
continue to be positive and have eased concerns about US economy moving towards a double-dip recession. US consumer demand
has been holding up so far and the Black Friday retail sales numbers where quite impressive. The ISM manufacturing index for
November came in at 52.7 which shows robust growth. As of now, there are no indicators of any recessionary trend in US economy.
The second quarter GDP growth rate in India came in at 6.9%, lowest in nine quarters. This number has confirmed a significant
slowdown in manufacturing and industrial activity in the country. We expect the growth to weaken further in next quarter. RBI has
effectively hiked rates by 500 bps in last sixteen months and that is showing in the growth numbers. We believe that RBI would refrain
from any further tightening and weak growth numbers would force RBI to start the easing cycle earlier than expected. Considering a
very tight liquidity scenario, a CRR cut is a distinct possibility.
The rupee continued its slide to 52.5 before RBI invented to provide some stability. Rupee has been one of the worst performing
Asian currency due to high current account deficit that the country is running. We believe that the current rupee levels provide a very
exciting entry opportunity in equity markets for dollar investors. The last set of second quarter earnings were disappointing. Rupee
depreciation has also resulted in forex losses. Several companies have seen a huge hit to bottom lines due to high interest rates and
commodity prices. We expect the softness in earnings to remain for at least one more quarter. However, Markets have already
discounted a lot of potential negatives and further correction in stock prices might be limited.
While interest rate and inflation cycle might turn for the positive in next few months, Global cues will play an important role in
deciding the market direction in the short term.
8

9. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in generics is
difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the developed world
keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players are at the
Healthcare Overweight
cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and CRAMS space
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the growth
in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
FMCG Overweight
Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has good
BFSI Neutral asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe banks will be
able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong
Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth. Raw material prices have started coming
Automobiles Neutral down which would boost margins. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment
due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels in
the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that
Telecom Neutral consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
9

10. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth in
Metals Neutral developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices will bounce back once growth recovers
and hence would be positive on industrial metals space.
We like the regulated return charteristci of this space. This space provides steady growth in earnings and
Power Utilities Neutral decent return on capital.
IT space might come under pressure due to continued concerns about growth in developed parts of the
IT/ITES Underweight world. While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order inflows might
slow down in near term
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Underweight economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply side. We do
Cement Underweight see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters.
The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. However, The significant slowdown in order inflow
activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector. We will review the stance once the interest
E&C Underweight rate cycle gets reversed
10

11. Debt Outlook
9.4 Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield
9.30
9.2
8.80
9.0
8.30
8.8
7.80
8.6
(%)
7.30
8.4
6.80
8.2
4.4
0.0
0.9
1.8
2.7
3.5
5.3
6.2
7.1
8.0
8.8
9.7
10.6
11.5
12.4
13.3
14.1
15.0
15.9
16.8
17.7
18.5
19.4
• The 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield decreased by 29 bps in October to close at 8.73%.
• The shorter term papers rallied to close at 8.71 percent for a tenor of one year while medium term
paper yields decreased to 8.68 percent after a sharp rally last month. The one year AAA rated
corporate bond yields were at 9.8 percent while the ten year bonds traded at 9.89%.
• Though no easing has been seen in the inflation figures, a pause is expected by the RBI and no hike
may be seen in the immediate future though the central bank would monitor the inflation closely.
• Advance tax outflows in December may tighten the liquidity in the system further and the bond
market may witness temporary hardening of yields.
11

12. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
We recommend investment into short term bond funds with
a 6-12 month investment horizon as we expect them to
Short Tenure deliver superior returns due to high YTM. We have seen the
Debt short term yields harden due to reduced liquidity and
consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary pressures. Till
these factors do not stabilize, we see Short term bond funds
and FMPs as an interesting investment option.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at
the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed
Credit Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also
contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at
current levels attractive.
RBI hiked the interest rates for the 13th time since march 2010 by
25 Bps, the repo rate now stands at 8.5% and reverse repo at
Long Tenure 7.5%. RBI has shown an intention to pause further rate hikes.
Our stance on long term debt remains neutral and we believe
Debt
that it may be a good time to start looking for interesting
investment opportunities in the medium term.
12

13. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
100 0
Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
-5000
0.0% 50
-10000
-1.0% USD GBP EURO YEN
-15000
0
-2.0% -20000
-50 -25000
-3.0%
-4.0% • India’s exports grew 10.8 percent in October, while imports
-5.0% grew by 21.7 percent. Impacted by the uncertainty in the global
markets, a drastic decrease has been seen in the exports hence
-6.0%
increasing the trade deficit to a four year high of USD 19.6
-7.0% billion.
140000
Capital Account Balance
• The INR has depreciated across all major currencies in 90000
the month. The Rupee started depreciating against the
USD from August 2011 and settled at Rs 52.10/ USD, as 40000
on November 23, 2011. This was a decrease of 18.28%
since August 2011. -10000
FY 10 (Q2) FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1)
• The major drivers for the INR to depreciate have been :
Withdrawal by FIIs, Strengthening of the USD, widening • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and
current account deficit and lack of other capital inflows stood at `273133 Cr. at the end of the year. For FY 12, the
capital account is at `93,621Cr. for Q1.
like FDI etc.
• We expect factors as higher interest rates to attract more
• With winter, the demand for oil and consequently dollar investments to India. Increased limits for investment by
is only expected to move further upwards. FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though
uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a
dampener.
13

14. Commodities
Though fundamental concerns still exist in the Eurozone, 31000
Gold
29000
the group of 6 central banks have offered low cost dollar 27000
25000
credit lines to European banks. In the domestic market, the 23000
Precious fundamental factors largely remained unchanged and 21000
19000
Indian markets had seen fresh buying demand during the 17000
Metals festive Diwali Season despite prices staying higher. If the
15000
31-Aug-11
30-Nov-10
31-Jan-11
30-Apr-11
30-Nov-11
31-Mar-11
30-Jun-11
31-Jul-11
28-Feb-11
31-May-11
30-Sep-11
31-Dec-10
31-Oct-11
current solution paves the way for a solution to the crisis
and if globally, the currencies strengthen, we may witness a
slight dip in the Gold prices as gold is inversely correlated
to the greenback hence providing a hedge.
130.0
Crude
The recent bout of global uncertainty have pressurized 120.0
110.0
crude oil amid concern of double dip recession in the US 100.0
and global economy slipping into red. We expect crude oil 90.0
80.0
Oil & Gas prices have topped out in the interim and can only move 70.0
down from here on. We have seen some firmness in the 60.0
31-Aug-2011
31-Dec-2010
31-Oct-2011
30-Nov-2010
31-May-2011
30-Nov-2011
31-Jul-2011
31-Jan-2011
28-Feb-2011
31-Mar-2011
30-Sep-2011
30-Apr-2011
30-Jun-2011
prices post the announcement of Greece bailout package,
nevertheless, any such temporary uptick shall not be
sustained. Expect crude oil prices to be steady.
14

15. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
Strong pre-launch sales still keeps the developers far from The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the
any correction, though sales are down to alsmost 35% infrastructure development in these cities have made the
since last quarter, there is no correction visible. The over- residential development spread across the city limits. On
supplied locations are stagnant and would be similar for an average price is still affordable. Key development
the coming 2 quaters. Entry points anywhere from Rs. developer are seeing demand of 3BHK and luxury
3000 - Rs. 6000 per sqft in cities like Pune, NCR, development but are only doing well if the project size is
Residential Hyderabad, Chennai and Bangalore are still considred limited to 100-150 units. The trend seems to be favorable
lucarative by first time home -buyers depending on their since there is lot of Investor demand comes from smaller
usage. The retail investors (2nd home buyers) and HNI cities closer to these Tier-II & III cities. Excellent time to
investors vary or delaying their decision with expectation buy anything between Rs. 3000-3500 sqft with known
of correction. Mumbai stands still tall with prices on their developers.
peak in over-supplied market also. Correction again are
reported only on media and not on ground level.
Advice Price point entry is the key. Good time to sell. Time right to buy, look at 3-8 acre developments only
Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious expansion Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike Tier-I
approach by corporate, this segment has gone through the price differentiation is double favoring commercial
correction. Rates per sqft have seen almost 30% down- since most of them are in CBD areas.
trend and will be stagnant for the coming 2-3 quarters.
Commercial/IT
Surely, the segment is at the down-tip of the cycle, and is
the best opportunity for companies looking for long term
holding of real estate office space.
Advice Excellent time to buy smaller office spaces at CBD areas Space not defined well, depends on independent needs.
15

16. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets
sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are
seen a major transformation on all its business expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and
aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would
consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety, always have capital protected due to dearth of
Retail less innovation, existence with competition, available space..
maximizing bottom line than top-line approach have
been making the retailers smarter. Revenue share
model with a built in MG is how the deals are done
Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit
commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity
Land since it can be used as tangible and most credible
pledge against business
Advice Hold Land, if Owned Hold Land, if Owned
1. Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
2. Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
3. The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
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Open Architecture – Widest array of products
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• Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
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Intensive Research
We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
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Honest, unbiased advise
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When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-
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A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
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The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained
herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness
thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions
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companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.
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