Collection of slides used in Long-Range planning think tank conducted by Glen Hiemstra of Futurist.com over two days in July 2008 for ASFE, an association of geotechnical engineering firms.

1. ©
Futurist.com Think Tank
Glen Hiemstra

2. ©
Why Explore the LT Future?
Anticipate game
changers
Identify
preferred future
directions

3. ©
Basic Agenda
Foresight –
The Driving
Forces
Dig into
Implications
Preferred
Future

4. ©
PRESENT
PROBABLEPOSSIBLE PREFERRED
FIRST
WIN
ACTION
S
T
R
A
T
E
G
Y
Preferred Future Planning

5. ©
Three Future Questions
What is Probable?
What is Possible?
What is Preferred?What is Preferred?

6. ©
Long-Range Planning
Three Phases
Strategic Thinking - Developing Foresight
Strategic Decision Making - Deciding on
preferred future, choosing directions
Strategic Planning - Developing web of
strategies and actions that will head in the
preferred direction

7. ©
What Is Your Image Of The
Future …circa 2025?

8. ©
The year is 2025. You are appointed to the
Time Capsule Task Force. Your task is to
send a time capsule back to ASFE in 2008.
Place in the Time Capsule items,
headlines, artifacts that communicate
the key ETD’s that occurred in the past
two decades and that changed our
enterprise.
Join the whole group in making review
comments
Reverse Time Capsule

9. ©
The Question: What are the most important
Events, Trends, or Developments that will
impact us over the next 20 years?
The year is 2025. You are appointed to the
ASFE Archives Commission.
For your assigned topic, brainstorm for 10
minutes, asking “what key developments
have occurred in the last ~20 years?”
Roam the room for a few minutes, reading the
other topics. Add items if you wish.
Discuss the themes that you see
Archives Commission

10. ©
Paradigm: The way we do things around here
We should move From… We should move To…

11. ©
Enjoy dinner…See you at
7:30 AM for breakfast in…
Michigan Room for
Day 2

12. ©
Day 2 Agenda
Picturing the year
2025
Stretching the
images further
Clarify next steps

13. ©
LA 1950
Beanfields
2007 74 homes 2017 2027
2037 2047 2057 LA 2067
Paul Glover dream, http://www.ithacahours.com/losangeles.html

14. ©
PRESENT
PROBABLEPOSSIBLE PREFERRED
FIRST
WIN
ACTION
S
T
R
A
T
E
G
Y
Preferred Futuring

15. ©
Take moment to think: “Given what we know
about the Driving Forces, in your assigned
domain, what are the three to five key forces,
and the preferred future for the Association
and its members, given those forces?
After some time to think quietly, share your images
around the group.
Discuss the following:
What are the top 3 minimum to 5 maximum driving forces out
to 2025? Place these in one column.
What is the preferred future – response, initiative, image, for
the association and members. Place these in the other
column.
Report when called upon.
Images of the Future

16. ©
The future is not
something that just
happens to us.
The future is not
something that just
happens to us.
Glen Hiemstra
Futurist.com
Glen Hiemstra
Futurist.com
The future is
something
we do.
The future is
something
we do.

17. ©
10 Most Important Implications of future trends
for Engineering
1. Confluence of peak oil, population waves, and emerging economies will demand new energy technologies and
rapid scaling up of existing technologies. Example: Trinity Industries, manufacturer of structural wind towers,
sees a backlog of $1.6 billion in orders, requiring engineering of site installations. A company without energy
expertise is at a disadvantage in next 20 years.
2. Public desire for sustainability is on the rise at the same time that the infrastructure is crumbling; the next
infrastructure build-out and repair will have to address issues of conservation and sustainability in methods and
materials. Public education campaigns will be integral.
3. US engineering firms, 75% of which have 5 or fewer employees, will face steep competition from consolidation,
and from the emerging markets, such as India and China, who are graduating engineers on the orders of
magnitude greater than the US. While many will survive in special niches, most may be better served by
seeking consolidation.
4. The half-life of knowledge, the point at which half of an engineer’s knowledge has become obsolete is
estimated to be as little as five years. To remain competitive, ongoing education will need to become an even
more fixed component of the engineers’ career. In the education arena, the U.S. is essentially ceding eventual
engineering leadership to other countries which are educating far more engineers than is the U.S.
5. Adapting the workplace for aging workers will be especially important for the engineering industry, in order to not
lose their value and experience in the face of rising competition from developing countries, and a shortage of
new talent locally.
6. On the management side, for companies to remain competitive, engineering process knowledge must move into
the realm of business and enterprise strategy. Engineers who know how to communicate the knowledge content
of their processes and data will be able to direct this trend.
7. Trends in private investment in engineering, especially in upcoming infrastructure spending, will require that
engineering firms have the business knowledge to take advantage of the capitalization, or be left out of the
boom. This means knowing how to seek and work with private equity, as well as managing public-private
partnerships.
8. Integrative technologies, such as mechatronics applications, will continue to evolve, compelling continued
integration of engineering disciplines. Emerging technologies, especially nanotechnology, means a looming
materials revolution and the opportunity to reinvent products and services.
9. Similarly, the evolving designs of homes and communities of the future will require sophisticated integration of
emerging technologies, from smart-homes to smart-grids.
10. As climate change leaves some of the world’s poorest communities vulnerable to disruption, engineering
initiatives that can combine scalable technologies with humanitarian concerns will become important actors in
the alleviation of human suffering. Engineering firm ethics standards will enlarge to include sustainability,
community design, and social justice.
Glen Hiemstra & Amy Frazier, 2008

18. ©
Nanotechnology
Not just small things, but things with different
properties because of nanoscale

19. ©
“Nanoengineering” of concreteMacroMicroNano
What do we want in our
structures?
Functional
• Mechanical Properties
• Workability
• Durability
• Safety (e.g. Fire)
Aesthetic:
• Form
• Texture (Surface Properties)
• Color
• …
Costs
• Fast Construction
• Low Maintenance Costs
“Concrete à la carte?”
Nanoengineer
Random Packing Limit = 0.64
No. of contact = 6/per sphere
Packing Density = 0.74
No. of contact = 12/per sphere
Source: Franz-Josef Ulm
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

20. ©
ProtoType Bridge
Prototype Bridge
Development
Sponsor: FHWA (Joey
Hartmann)
Design: MIT
Contractor: Prestress
Services, Kentucky
Material: DUCTAL
Source: Franz-Josef Ulm
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

21. ©
Konarka Technologies, Technology Review July/August 2004
NanoSolar.com

22. ©William Calvin, Global Fever

23. ©
17% Increase = All
Electric Fleet

24. ©
632 Nov. 2008

25. ©

26. ©
980 square feet for 3.4 people
1950 Average New Home

27. ©
1960’s

28. ©
1970’s

29. ©
1980’s

30. ©
1990’s

31. ©
2000’s

32. ©
NOW: 5,000-8,000 Sq. Ft. Homes
For 2.6
people

33. ©
1,500 pounds
1973 Honda Civic

34. ©
2,806 pounds
2008 Honda Civic

35. ©

36. ©
The meta-cycle of suburban development, including
“housing” and all its accessories in roads and chain
stores, is hitting the wall of peak oil. The suburban build
out is over. This will come as an agonizing surprise to
many. The failure to make infinite suburbanization the
permanent basis for an economy will rock our society
for years to come. -
James Howard Kunstler

37. ©
Millions of PeopleMillions of People
MALE FEMALE
Age Wave In Action
895 Days until the first Boomer turns 65

38. ©
Time Online, 7-29.2002
2020THTH
Century retirement came to anCentury retirement came to an
end in 1990, as the number of olderend in 1990, as the number of older
workers began increasing.workers began increasing.

39. ©
Marc Prensky originated “digital native” term and this list
Communicating
Sharing
Buying & Selling
Exchanging
Creating
Meeting
Dating
Collecting
Coordinating
Evaluating
Communicating
Sharing
Buying & Selling
Exchanging
Creating
Meeting
Dating
Collecting
Coordinating
Evaluating
Digital Natives & Digital Immigrants
Gaming
Learning
Searching
Analyzing
Growing up
Evolving

40. ©
Environmental
tipping points
visible

41. ©
www.williamcalvin.com

42. ©

43. ©
www.williamcalvin.com

44. ©

45. ©
June 29, 2008

46. ©
www.williamcalvin.com

47. ©

48. ©
“By 2010, the production of the fuel that has driven
the world’s economy will start to rapidly decline. This
will conflict with the steadily increasing demand for
oil. The collision of these two trends will lead to
shortages and increased prices, providing a strong
incentive to shift to alternative fuel resources…Due to
unequal distribution through the world of oil and gas
supply and consumption, [the upcoming] transition
will result in significant shifts in global power and
wealth.”
Ray Leonard,Vice-President-Eurasia,
Kuwait Energy Company
2001 and June 27, 2008

49. ©
Environment & Energy Lesson
End of oil and a melting world mean
taking green leadership, and the good
news is we have most or all of what we
need to do this fast: build a grid that
downloads and uploads, upgrade our
buildings and community design, and
we nearly have all the new
transportation designs we need

50. ©
WHAT IS POSSIBLE –
Sustainability by Design

51. ©
Time for breakthrough Thinking:
Alt-Energy Research Center
Masdar, Abu Dabai: 50,000, Solar, Desalination, Elevated
light rail, Mollor Sky Cars, Pedestrian

52. ©
Re-invent Energy before 2050
Increase efficiency of new
appliances and buildings to
achieve Zero-carbon
emissions, resulting in 25%
total reduction by 2050.
Add 3 million 1-megawatt
windmills globally, 75 times
current capacity.
Add 3000 gigawatts of peak
solar photovoltaic, 1000
times current capacity.
No net new net coal power
plants
Shift 2 billion cars from
30 mpg to 60 mpg
equiv. by 2050.
Decrease driving for 2
billion cars in half
Develop Zero-emission
vehicles
From Robert Socolow, Princeton, Energy Wedges

53. ©
21st Century Vision21st Century Vision
Make solar energy affordable
Provide energy from fusion
Develop carbon sequestration methods
Manage the nitrogen cycle
Provide access to clean water
Restore and improve urban infrastructure
Advance health informatics
Engineer better medicines
Reverse-engineer the brain
Prevent nuclear terror
Secure cyberspace
Enhance virtual reality
Advance personalized learning
Make solar energy affordable
Provide energy from fusion
Develop carbon sequestration methods
Manage the nitrogen cycle
Provide access to clean water
Restore and improve urban infrastructure
Advance health informatics
Engineer better medicines
Reverse-engineer the brain
Prevent nuclear terror
Secure cyberspace
Enhance virtual reality
Advance personalized learning
http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/

54. ©
Vertical Agriculture
Mithun Architects

55. ©
Needs
US spends 2.4% gdp, vs. EU 5% and
China 9% on infrastructure
National commission transportation
policy recs $225 billion/yr, for 50 years
47000 jobs for each billion