Future-proofing policy for electricity expansion from datacentres.

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Dr Muireann Lynch, ESRI delivers a presentation on future-proofing policy for electricity expansion from datacentres. (Presentation delivered at the inaugural National Energy Research and Policy Conference in Dublin, Nov 2019)

Environment

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications
@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie
Future-proofing policy for electricity
expansion from datacentres
DATE
20th November 2019
VENUE
SEAI/DCCAE National Energy
and Policy Conference
AUTHOR
Dr. Muireann Á. Lynch

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie2 26 November 2019
Research gaps
• Behavioural elements

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie3 26 November 2019
Research gaps
• Behavioural elements
• Distributional elements

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie4 26 November 2019
Research gaps
• Behavioural elements
• Distributional elements
• Bridging the gap between least-cost and non-
least-cost outcomes

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie5 26 November 2019
Policy needs
• Flexible policy that proves optimal for a range of
possible outcomes

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie6 26 November 2019
Policy needs
• Flexible policy that proves optimal for a range of
possible outcomes
• Joined-up thinking between different
Departments

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie7 26 November 2019
Policy needs
• Flexible policy that proves optimal for a range of
possible outcomes
• Joined-up thinking between different
Departments
• Ex post analysis

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie8 26 November 2019
Context of future electricity system
• Electricity demand expected to increase in
Ireland
• This is likely with or without electrification of
heat and transport
• Policy focuses on specific RES-E targets
• 2020 RES-E target will not be met

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie9 26 November 2019
Context of future electricity system
Datacentres: major driver of electricity demand
under every scenario

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie10 26 November 2019
Context of future electricity system
Datacentres: major driver of electricity demand
under every scenario
• Analysis of economic benefits of datacentres is weak
• Whether or where to build datacentres is not a policy
decision
• Policy must be equipped to find the best solution
under all possible outcomes

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie11 26 November 2019
ENGINE model
• Determine future least-cost electricity
expansion taking datacentres into account
• Methodology: Electricity Network and
Generation INvEstment model
• Consider various demand outcomes
• Consider impacts of renewable vs carbon
reduction policies

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie12 26 November 2019
Results

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie13 26 November 2019
Results

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie14 26 November 2019
Results

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie15 26 November 2019
Conclusions
• High renewables crowd out other low carbon
options and increase costs
• The costs of the wrong policy increase in
increasing demand
• Less prescriptive policies are best under large
uncertainties

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie16 26 November 2019
Further questions
• Least-cost scenario diverges from market
outcomes – why?
• The costs of planning for the highest possible
datacentre rollout will be even higher
• Is there a carbon leakage case to be made?

www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie17 26 November 2019
Questions
Thanks to Dr. Desta Fitiwi, funded by SFI Strategic Partnership Programme Grant Number
SFI/15/SPP/E3125. The opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this
material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Science Foundation
Ireland.
Muireann.Lynch@esri.ie
Desta.Fitiwi@esri.ie
@mu_lynch

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Future-proofing policy for electricity expansion from datacentres.

1. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie Future-proofing policy for electricity expansion from datacentres DATE 20th November 2019 VENUE SEAI/DCCAE National Energy and Policy Conference AUTHOR Dr. Muireann Á. Lynch

2. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie2 26 November 2019 Research gaps • Behavioural elements

3. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie3 26 November 2019 Research gaps • Behavioural elements • Distributional elements

4. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie4 26 November 2019 Research gaps • Behavioural elements • Distributional elements • Bridging the gap between least-cost and non- least-cost outcomes

5. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie5 26 November 2019 Policy needs • Flexible policy that proves optimal for a range of possible outcomes

6. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie6 26 November 2019 Policy needs • Flexible policy that proves optimal for a range of possible outcomes • Joined-up thinking between different Departments

7. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie7 26 November 2019 Policy needs • Flexible policy that proves optimal for a range of possible outcomes • Joined-up thinking between different Departments • Ex post analysis

8. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie8 26 November 2019 Context of future electricity system • Electricity demand expected to increase in Ireland • This is likely with or without electrification of heat and transport • Policy focuses on specific RES-E targets • 2020 RES-E target will not be met

9. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie9 26 November 2019 Context of future electricity system Datacentres: major driver of electricity demand under every scenario

10. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie10 26 November 2019 Context of future electricity system Datacentres: major driver of electricity demand under every scenario • Analysis of economic benefits of datacentres is weak • Whether or where to build datacentres is not a policy decision • Policy must be equipped to find the best solution under all possible outcomes

11. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie11 26 November 2019 ENGINE model • Determine future least-cost electricity expansion taking datacentres into account • Methodology: Electricity Network and Generation INvEstment model • Consider various demand outcomes • Consider impacts of renewable vs carbon reduction policies

12. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie12 26 November 2019 Results

13. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie13 26 November 2019 Results

14. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie14 26 November 2019 Results

15. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie15 26 November 2019 Conclusions • High renewables crowd out other low carbon options and increase costs • The costs of the wrong policy increase in increasing demand • Less prescriptive policies are best under large uncertainties

16. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie16 26 November 2019 Further questions • Least-cost scenario diverges from market outcomes – why? • The costs of planning for the highest possible datacentre rollout will be even higher • Is there a carbon leakage case to be made?

17. www.esri.ie @ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications@ESRIDublin #ESRIevents #ESRIpublications www.esri.ie17 26 November 2019 Questions Thanks to Dr. Desta Fitiwi, funded by SFI Strategic Partnership Programme Grant Number SFI/15/SPP/E3125. The opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Science Foundation Ireland. Muireann.Lynch@esri.ie Desta.Fitiwi@esri.ie @mu_lynch

Future-proofing policy for electricity expansion from datacentres.

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