Fundamental Analysis for Crypto Assets
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This document discusses using machine intelligence to analyze crypto-assets. It argues that traditional financial analysis methods do not work for crypto-assets due to a lack of fundamentals data and limited historical price data. It proposes that a new form of technical and quantitative analysis is needed based on blockchain data signals. Machine learning could help identify patterns in blockchain data to better understand and potentially predict the behavior of crypto-assets. The presenter is the CTO of IntoTheBlock and believes machine learning has potential to improve crypto-asset analysis by learning from real-time behavior and correlating on-chain data with price movements.
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Fundamental Analysis for Crypto Assets
- 3. About Me ▸ Microsoft alumni, reformed Wall Street quant ▸ Serial entrepreneur ▸ Chief Scientist, Invector Labs ▸ CTO, IntoTheBlock ▸ Crypto Investor, LP, Angel Investor ▸ Board member of several AI and blockchain companies
- 5. Some questions about crypto- assets that drive everyone crazy
- 6. “What moves the price of crypto assets?
- 7. “Can we predict the price and behavior of crypto-assets?
- 8. Controversial Idea #1 Traditional financial asset analysis methods don’t work for crypto-assets
- 9. Three Financial Analysis Methodologies Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis Quantitative Analysis
- 10. Fundamental Analysis Doesn’t work because crypto-assets are not based on fundamentals Quant Analysis Doesn’t work because we don’t have enough historical data Technical Analysis Doesn’t work because crypto-assets are not based solely on price and volume
- 12. Controversial Idea #2 Crypto-Assets need a new form of technical- quant analysis based on blockchain data signals
- 13. Some Obvious Facts About Crypto- Assets They generate a lot of blockchain data Their behavior is permanently recorded in blockchain blocks External influential factors eventually manifest in blockchain activity
- 14. Why not to use blockchain signals to analyze crypto- assets?
- 15. Hallucination Twitter Sentiment Analysis Seriously???? Exchange Volume They are vulnerable to fake reports… Telegram Threads This is an indication of people having nothing better to do…. Whales Behavior How are big holders trading? Investment Positions What’s the current distribution of investment positions based on the buy or sell activity? Outlier Activity Is there unusual activity that can affect the behavior of a crypto-asset? Good Indicators
- 16. Controversial Idea #3 Machine learning will lead the way to enable effective crypto-asset analysis
- 17. About Machine Learning for Crypto- Assets • Apply knowledge for predicting future behavior of crypto-assets • Improve knowledge based on real time behavior • Correlate on- chain data with the behavior of crypto-assets • Detecting data signals in blockchain datasets Identity Learn PredictOptimize
- 19. What Comes Next? Are crypto-assets predictable? How can we understand the behavior of crypto-assets? How can machine learning and data science help?