As business environments and market ecosystems grow increasingly complex and unpredictable, product leaders face mounting challenges in decision-making, compounded by relentless time-to-market pressures. In this talk, we'll examine how the Cynefin Framework can equip Product Managers with the ability to make better decisions and enhance product development effectiveness. The Cynefin Framework assists leaders, managers, and decision-makers in navigating the intricacies of various problem-solving and decision-making scenarios, stressing the importance of grasping the context and nature of the situation to select appropriate methods, tools, and leadership styles. Through real-life examples, practical insights, and an engaging hands-on exercise, we'll delve into the Cynefin Framework, illustrating how Product Managers can harness this framework to make sense of the context of challenges they encounter. Product Managers will learn how to adapt their leadership styles, problem-solving methods, and risk management strategies to suit the specific situation, ultimately leading to more effective outcomes.

1. Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
1
@danielwalsh
From Chaos to Clarity
Better Product Decisions with the
Cynefin Framework
Daniel Walsh
Product Camp - Austin 2023
Change starts with understanding why

2. The nature of the system determines
the way we can know things, how we
make decisions, and how we act
-David Snowden
2 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
Cynefin Framework
kuh-nev-in
The Cynefin framework is first about
situational awareness, followed by
contextually appropriate action

3. 3 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
?Confused?
Chaotic Complex Clear
Complicated
Foresight & Predictability
Long Foresight
Very Predictable
Stable
No Foresight
Very Unpredictable
Unstable

4. 4 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
Confused
Clear
Complicated
Complex
Chaotic
fold
or
cliff

5. The Cynefin Framework
5 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
Clear
Complicated
Complex
Chaotic
Disorder
Confused
The Cynefin Framework by Cognitive Edge..
Constraints
Cause and Effect
Relationship
Decision-making
How to respond

6. The Clear Domain
Direct Cause-Effect Relationship
6 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission.
Disorder
best practice
Clear
Rigid constraints
No degrees of freedom
sense-categorize-respond
Standards & SOPs
Checklists
Best-Known Methods
Complicated
Complex
Chaotic
Confused

7. The Complicated Domain
Indirect Cause-Effect Relationship
7 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission.
best practice
Clear
Complicated
good practice
Rigid constraints
No degrees of freedom
Governing constraints
Tightly coupled
sense-analyze-respond
sense-categorize-respond
Playbooks & Budgets
Community of Experts
Better-Known Methods
Complex
Chaotic
Confused

8. The Complex Domain
Highly Intertwined Cause-Effect Relationships
8
best practice
Clear
Complicated
good practice
Complex
exaptive practice
Rigid constraints
No degrees of freedom
Governing constraints
Tightly coupled
Enabling constraints
Semi-stable coupling
probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond
sense-categorize-respond
Many small bets
Informal Networks
Resilient Methods
Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission.
Chaotic
Confused

9. The Chaotic Domain
Unknowable Cause-Effect Relationship
9 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission.
Disorder
best practice
Clear
Complicated
good practice
Complex
exaptive practice
Chaotic
novel practice
Rigid constraints
No degrees of freedom
Governing constraints
Tightly coupled
Enabling constraints
Semi-stable coupling
No constraints
Not coupled
act-sense-respond
probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond
sense-categorize-respond
Radical Innovation
Crisis Management
Stabilizing Methods
Confused

10. The Confused Domain
Indeterminate Cause-Effect Relationship
10 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission.
Confused
best practice
Clear
Complicated
good practice
Complex
exaptive practice
Chaotic
novel practice
Rigid constraints
No degrees of freedom
Governing constraints
Tightly coupled
Enabling constraints
Semi-stable coupling
No constraints
Not coupled
act-sense-respond
probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond
sense-categorize-respond
Multiple diverse
perspectives
Partition
Diagnostic Methods
Confused

11. Cynefin Metaphors | Games
11 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
Clear
Complicated
Complex
Chaotic
Confused
Fish-Prawn-Crab
魚蝦蟹,
Coin Toss
Blackjack
Texas Hold’em
Poker
Food Fight
Calvinball*
Reference: http://calvinandhobbes.wikia.com/wiki/Calvinball
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoo_Hey_How

12. Cynefin | Problem Triage
12 Copyright © 2019 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;June019
Clear
Complicated
Complex
Chaotic
Confused
We’ve Done
This Many Times
Just Do It
Trust the
Experts
Try Several Things Out
Do the Next Right Thing
Contain & Stabilize
Invest In Advance of Need

13. Cynefin | Prioritization
13 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
Clear
Complicated
Complex
Chaotic
Confused
Take the best1
Weighted-shortest
Job First2
Spread out
small bets
1/n
First-fit
Pattern Match3
1 Reference: Gigerenzer & Todd. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. 2000.
2 Reference: Reinertsen, Don. The Principles of Product Development Flow:
Second Generation Lean Product Development. 2009.
3 Reference: Klein, Gary. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions. 1998.

14. Exercise
Recreate the Cynefin
framework using the
poster paper and the
data labels
Debrief:
• What is the same
• What is different
• What is surprising
14 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved
Clear
Complicated
Complex
Chaotic
Confused

15. References
Snowden & Boone. “A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making.” Harvard Business Review, 2007.
Snowden, David, Cynefin - Weaving Sense-Making into the Fabric of Our World, 2020.
Reinertsen, Donald, The Principles of Product Development Flow, 2009.
Klein, Gary, Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, 2017.
15 Copyright © FiveWhyz LLC. and nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved