Harness Complexity To Improve Productivity by Daniel Walsh nuCognitive

1@danielwalsh
Daniel Walsh - Austin 2018
Copyright © 2018 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;May2018
Harness Complexity and
Improve Productivity

2 Copyright © 2018 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;May2018
WHAT IS
PRODUCTIVITY?

3
Productivity ≠ Efficiency

4
Efficiency – ratio of outputs over inputs
Productivity1 describes various measures of the efficiency of
production.
Productive2 is defined as effective in bringing about or
yielding results, benefits, or profits
Being productive means you are successful in producing a
desired or intended result.
Effectiveness - create the right result and deliver what matters
Reference:
1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity
2 https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/productive

5
Productivity takes into account both the
amount of work completed and the value of
that work towards an outcome
Productivity combines
Efficiency
“minimal waste”
Effectiveness
“it works”
X

Productivity Measures As Heuristics
A heuristic is anything that provides a plausible aid or direction in the solution of a problem*
• reduces the search time for problem solving
• does not guarantee a solution to a problem
• can offer conflicting advice
• acceptance depends on the immediate context instead of an absolute standard
Example productivity measurement heuristics:
• Farm productivity (bushels per acre)
• Workforce productivity (Profit per employee)
• National Productivity (Gross Domestic Product)
*Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn. Discussion of the Method. 2003.

Heuristics produce accurate decisions by
exploiting the structures of information in the
environments in which they are applied*
*Reference: Gigerenzer & Todd. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. 2000.

Cynefin Framework
kuh-nev-in
The Cynefin framework is first about
situational awareness, followed by
contextually appropriate action.

The Cynefin Framework
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
DisorderDisorder
The Cynefin Framework by Cognitive Edge..
Direct Cause-Effect
Rigid constraints
No degrees of freedom
Governing constraints
Tightly coupled
Enabling constraints
Loosely coupled
No constraints
Not coupled
Unknowable Cause-Effect
Interconnected Cause-Effect Indirect Cause-Effect

10
Complex
Disorder
Complicated

11
“…a jumbo jet is complicated but a mayonnaise is complex.”
– Paul Cilliers
Reference: https://www.theoryculturesociety.org/oliver-human-on-paul-cilliers/
CC BY-SA 2.0 by jules:stonesoup
CC BY-SA 3.0 by Alex Beltyukov
Disorder

12
Complex
Disorder
Complicated
Focus On Output
Well-defined
Inputs result in predictable
outcomes
Output → → Outcome
Focus On Outcome
Ill-defined
Impossible to predict what inputs
generate desired outcomes
Output<>Outcome
Cynefin X Productivity

Overly constrained complex systems are fragile and less
resilient
→ Allow for inefficiency to improve effectiveness
• e.g. software development teams
• Reference: DeMarco, Tom. Slack: Getting Past Burnout,
Busywork, and the Myth of Total Efficiency. 2002.

Complex systems are inherently uncertain – they are
dispositional, not causal
→ Multiple, parallel, small safe-to-fail bets
• e.g. venture capital
• Reference: Boulton, Allen, Bowman. Embracing
Complexity: Strategic Perspectives for an Age of
Turbulence. 2015.

Complex systems are far from equilibrium
→ Manage in the present and focus on desired outcomes
not outputs
• e.g. jobs-to-be-done and outcome-driven innovation
• Reference: Ulwick, Anthony. Jobs to be Done: Theory to
Practice. 2016.

References
Snowden & Boone. “A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making.” Harvard Business Review, 2007.
https://www.process.st/productivity-vs-efficiency/
http://www.asianefficiency.com/goals/setting-better-outcomes/
https://hbr.org/2012/11/its-not-just-semantics-managing-outcomes
DeMarco, Tom. Slack: Getting Past Burnout, Busywork, and the Myth of Total Efficiency. 2002.
Boulton, Allen, Bowman. Embracing Complexity: Strategic Perspectives for an Age of Turbulence. 2015.
Ulwick, Anthony. Jobs to be Done: Theory to Practice. 2016.
16 Copyright © 2018 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;May2018 @danielwalsh

17@danielwalsh  Let’s Connect Copyright © 2018 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;May2018
daniel.walsh@nuCognitive.com
https://www.meetup.com/Cynefin-and-Complexity
http://bit.ly/walshslides

Disorder
The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission.
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Complex
emergent practice
Chaotic
novel practice
Ordered
Unordered
Rigid constraints
No degrees of freedom
Governing constraints
Tightly coupled
Enabling constraints
Loosely coupled
Lacking constraints
Not coupled
act-sense-respond
probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond
sense-categorize-respond
Standards
Checklists
Best-Known Methods
Communities of
Practice
Expert Analysis
Better-Known Methods
Pattern Recognition
Learn & Adapt
Resilient Methods
Radical Innovation
Crisis Management
Stabilizing Methods

Adapted from A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making, D. Snowden & M. Boone, HBR, 2007.
Obvious Complicated Complex Chaotic Disorder
Nature
Known knowns
Familiar, certain, well-worn
pathways
Stable within rigid constraints
Constraints and solutions are
self-evident to all
Known unknowns
Ordered, predictable, forecast-
able
Constraints evident and
enforceable
Stable within governing
constraints
Susceptible to analysis of
evidence
Unknown unknowns
Messy, coherent patterns
discernible
Partial, changing, resilient
constraints
Flux within areas of stableness
Evidence supports
contradictions
Unknowable
unknowns
Transitory, temporary state – no
time
No evidence of any constraints
Highly turbulent with no
patterns
Old certainties no longer apply
Uncertain or confused
Epistemological state not
ontological
Unarticulated differences
Competing approaches
Difficult to recognize
Response
Sense-Categorize-Respond
Ensure sound processes in place
Monitor for noncompliance and
shift
Test for complacency
Protect mavericks and listen to
cynics
Sense-Analyze-Respond
Identify experts
Manage processes
Monitor effectiveness of
constraints
Focus on exploitation not
exploration
Probe-Sense-Respond
Multiple safe-to-fail probes
Contradictions within heuristics
Flex constraints to enable
emergence
Agility key to amplify and
dampen
Act-Sense-Respond
Speed of authoritative response
vital
Follow and enforce heuristics
Focus on constraints not
solution
Use the opportunity to innovate
Probe-Sense-Respond
Explore different perspectives
Empathize & Reframe
Inquire & investigate-dig deeper
Partition & break into smaller
pieces or different aspects
Agree to disagree
Prepare&Manage
Policy Management
Watch for outliers
Usable processes
Process support when needed
Automate, but no automata
Anonymous appeal – whistle
blower
Expert Analysis
Right people, right process, right
time
Process engineering with
feedback
Diversity of experts in network
Sound analytical practice
Stand aside but monitor
Scenario planning
Sensor Networks
Create time and space for
reflection
Human sensor networks
operational
Social Network Stimulation to
create small-world networks
Build and monitor for ‘requisite
diversity’
Crisis & Innovation Mgt
Establish heuristics & parables
Human sensor networks
Crews as crisis management
teams
Simulation games for key
managers
Multi-perspective dissent
feedback
Constructively Manage
Disagreement
Create time and space for
disagreements
Psychological safety
Develop exemplars for domains
Be mindful of dominant patterns
Re-evaluate assumptions

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