How to Lead Agile Organizations Through Complexity

Copyright © 2019 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;May2019
1@danielwalsh
How To Lead Agile Organizations
Through Complexity
Daniel Walsh
ACT (Approved Cynefin Trainer)
Scrum Gathering Austin 2019 a co-operative for Agile coaches

2 Copyright © 2019 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;May2019
What is a heuristic?
@danielwalsh

What is a heuristic?
Rule of thumb
le pif
(the nose)
目の測定
(measuring with
the eye)
Educated guess
SWAG
Order of magnitude
First cut
Engineering
judgement
Guiding
principles
Faustregel
(the fist)
Ha пальцами
(by the fingers)
Quick and dirty
Guesstimate
@danielwalsh

What is a Heuristic?
A heuristic is anything that provides a plausible aid or direction in the solution of a problem*
• reduces the search time for problem solving but does not guarantee a solution
• can offer conflicting advice
• acceptance depends on the immediate context instead of an absolute standard
Example engineering heuristics:
• Solve problems by successive approximations (trial and error)
• Divide the problem into its constituent parts (divide and conquer)
• Do what worked last time (yesterday’s weather)
*Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn. Discussion of the Method. 2003.
@danielwalsh

Everything in Agile is heuristic
Iterations less
than four weeks
Individuals and
interactions over
processes and tools
Definition of
Done
Daily Standup
Responding to
change over
following a plan
Face-to-face
conversation is the
best form of
communication Best architectures,
requirements, and
designs emerge from
self-organizing teams
Velocity
tracking
User stories
State of the Art
(SOTA)
LeSS
SAFe
DAD
Nexus
Scrum at Scale
Kanban
Scrum
XP
@danielwalsh

Heuristics produce accurate decisions by
exploiting the structures of information in the
environments in which they are applied*
*Reference: Gigerenzer & Todd. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. 2000.
@danielwalsh

Heuristics are dependent
on immediate context
instead of absolute truth*
@danielwalsh

The future of Agile is one where
practitioners understand not only how,
but also why Agile methods and
practices work across different contexts.
@danielwalsh

The nature of the system determines
the way we can know things, how we
make decisions, and how we act.
-David Snowden
Cynefin Framework
kuh-nev-in
The Cynefin framework is first about
situational awareness, followed by
contextually appropriate action.
@danielwalsh

?Disorder?
Chaotic Complex ObviousComplicated
@danielwalsh
Foresight & Predictability

The Cynefin Framework
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
DisorderDisorder
The Cynefin Framework by Cognitive Edge..
Constraints
Cause and Effect
Relationship
Decision-making
How to respond
@danielwalsh

Cynefin Framework | Older Version*
*Reference: Complex Acts of Knowing by Dave Snowden
Disorder
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Known
Knowns
Known
Unknown
Unknown
Unknowns
Unknowable
@danielwalsh

The Obvious Domain
Direct Cause-Effect Relationship
The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission.
Disorder
best practice
Obvious
Rigid constraints
No degrees of freedom
sense-categorize-respond
Standards
Checklists
Best-Known Methods
@danielwalsh
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder

The Complicated Domain
Indirect Cause-Effect Relationship
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Rigid constraints
Governing constraints
Tightly coupled
sense-analyze-respond
Playbooks
Community of Experts
Better-Known Methods
@danielwalsh
Complex
Chaotic
Disorder

The Complex Domain
Highly Interconnected Cause-Effect Relationships
17
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Complex
exaptive & adaptive practice
Rigid constraints
Tightly coupled
Enabling constraints
Loose, semi-stable coupling
probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond
Situational Awareness
Networks
Resilient Methods
@danielwalsh
Chaotic
Disorder

The Chaotic Domain
Unknowable Cause-Effect Relationship
Disorder
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Complex
Chaotic
novel practice
Rigid constraints
Tightly coupled
No constraints
Not coupled
act-sense-respond
Radical Innovation
Crisis Management
Stabilizing Methods
@danielwalsh
Disorder

The Disordered Domain
Indeterminate Cause-Effect Relationship
Disorder
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practice
Complex
Chaotic
novel practice
Rigid constraints
Tightly coupled
No constraints
Not coupled
act-sense-respond
Multiple diverse
perspectives
Partition
Diagnostic Methods
@danielwalsh

Nature is adroit in
creating objects whose
only excuse for being
seems to be to thwart
someone’s effort to put
them into a category.
-Billy Vaughn Koen
@danielwalshCC BY-SA 3.0 Platypus by TwoWings

21 @danielwalsh
Complex
Disorder
Complicated
Degree of description

22 @danielwalsh
“…a jumbo jet is complicated but a mayonnaise is complex.”
– Paul Cilliers
Reference: https://www.theoryculturesociety.org/oliver-human-on-paul-cilliers/
CC BY-SA 2.0 by jules:stonesoup
CC BY-SA 3.0 by Alex Beltyukov
Disorder

Mathematics of Dots*
*Source: The Mathematics of Dots by Max Boisot
Events as Dots
Effect
Patterns
Connecting Dots
Cause
Links
@danielwalsh
Hindsight Does Not Lead To Foresight
# of Dots # of Links # of Possible Patterns
4 6 64
10 45 35,184,372,088,832
n L=n(n-1)/2 P=2L

Complex Adaptive Systems Are Irreversible and Not Repeatable
“Large Development Teams generate too much
complexity for an empirical process to be useful.”
- The Scrum Guide™ (2017)
Hypothesis validation or invalidation?
Controlled, repeatable experiments?
What about the scientific method?
These heuristics are not well suited for
working with complex adaptive systems

Complex
Disorder
Complicated
Multiple
Parallel
Safe-to-Try
Bets
Testable,
Repeatable
Scientific
Experiments

Cynefin Metaphors | Games
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Coin Toss
BlackjackTexas Hold’em
Poker
Food Fight
Calvinball*
Reference: http://calvinandhobbes.wikia.com/wiki/Calvinball
@danielwalsh

Cynefin Metaphors | Movement
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Blind
Police Roadblock
Traffic LightRoundabout
No constraints
@danielwalsh

Cynefin | Software Development
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Unit Test
Regression
Testing
User Testing
Canary Deployments*
Chaos Monkey
ChAP**
References:
* http://principlesofchaos.org/
** The Netflix Simian Army post on Medium, 2011
and Netflix post on Chaos Automation Platform
https://medium.com/netflix-techblog/chap-chaos-automation-platform-53e6d528371f
@danielwalsh

Cynefin | Prioritization
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Take the best1
Weighted-shortest
Job First2
Multiple
small bets
1/n
First-fit
Pattern Match3
1 Reference: Gigerenzer & Todd. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. 2000.
2 Reference: Reinertsen, Don. The Principles of Product Development Flow:
Second Generation Lean Product Development. 2009.
3 Reference: Klein, Gary. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions. 1998.
@danielwalsh

Complexity
&
Leading Change
Lessons Learned

Cynefin | Change Management
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Standards, Hard Rules,
& Policy Enforcement
Define Ideal State
& Close Gap
Manage Evolutionary
Potential of Present
Invest in Advance
of Need
@danielwalsh
Scientific Management
“Popular” Systems ThinkingAnthro-Complexity*
Chaos Engineering**References:
*https://cognitive-edge.com/blog/whats-in-a-name/
**http://principlesofchaos.org/ and
Netflix post on Chaos Automation Platform

Complex Change Needs
Ecological Metaphors Not
Manufacturing Ones
Change Agent As Gardener

Complex Change Heuristic | Containers, Differences, and Exchanges (CDE)
Containers, Differences, and Exchanges* is a heuristic that describes three
conditions that influence the speed, path, and direction of complex systems
Containers: Things that hold, constrain, & shape the system
• meeting, org silos, events, location, and anything else that constrains agents
Differences: Distinctions that create tension and influence decision and action
• Skills, experience, socio-economics, gender, race, ethnicity and any other
“differences that make a difference”
Exchanges: Connections that move information, energy, and other resources
• Feedback, dialog, conversation, messages, body language, pictures, and any
flow the generates change
*Reference: Human Systems Dynamics Institute https://www.hsdinstitute.org/assets/documents/5.1.1.3.cde-30apr16.pdf
These three conditions are massively entangled with each other, a shift one changes the other two

Knowledge Check:
A Gom Jabbar For Agile Practitioners
Photo Attribution: Dune (1984 Film), fair use of a copyrighted work for purposes such as teaching and nonprofit educational purposes is not an infringement of copyright

The future of Agile is one where practitioners
understand not only how, but also why Agile heuristics
work across different contexts.
(obvious, complicated, complex, chaotic, disorder)
@danielwalsh

Isn’t that an
interesting heuristic.
-Billy Vaughn Koen
@danielwalsh

How To Lead Agile Organizations
Through Complexity
Thank You!
38@danielwalsh
daniel.walsh@nuCognitive.com
Let’s connect on
https://www.meetup.com/Cynefin-and-Complexity
http://bit.ly/walshslides
Cynefin & Complexity Foundations Course (May 29-30 Houston)
a co-operative for Agile coaches

How to Lead Agile Organizations Through Complexity

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