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Change Isn't Complicated - It's Complex by Daniel Walsh nuCognitive

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This talk was about taking a complexity-informed approach to change and organizational transformation. It introduced participants to the Cynefin framework and a set of principles, heuristics, and methods for changing and nudging a complex adaptive system.

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Change Isn't Complicated - It's Complex by Daniel Walsh nuCognitive

  1. 1. Change Isn’t Complicated . . . It’s COMPLEX 1@danielwalsh Daniel Walsh STRECTH Conference Budapest 2017 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017
  2. 2. 2 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Scientific Management “Popularized” Systems Thinking CC BY-SA 3.0 Patrhoue and Apdevries from article by John Sterman Complex Adaptive Systems Adapted from Dave Snowden Cognitive Edge
  3. 3. Cynefin kuh-nev-in Habitat or place The place of your multiple belongings Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec20173
  4. 4. Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec20174 Situational Awareness Contextually Appropriate Action
  5. 5. The nature of the system determines the way we can know things, how we make decisions, and how we act. -David Snowden 5 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Cynefin Framework kuh-nev-in @danielwalsh
  6. 6. 6 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 ?Disorder? Chaotic Complex ObviousComplicated @danielwalsh
  7. 7. 7 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Disorder Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic foldorcliff @danielwalsh
  8. 8. The Cynefin Framework 8 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic DisorderDisorder The Cynefin Framework by Cognitive Edge.. Constraints Cause and Effect Relationship Decision-making How to respond @danielwalsh
  9. 9. The Obvious Domain Direct Cause-Effect Relationship 9 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. Disorder best practice Obvious Rigid constraints sense-categorize-respond @danielwalsh
  10. 10. The Complicated Domain Indirect Cause-Effect Relationship 10 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. best practice Obvious Complicated good practice Rigid constraints Governing constraints sense-analyze-respond sense-categorize-respond @danielwalsh
  11. 11. The Complex Domain Interconnected Cause-Effect Relationship 11 best practice Obvious Complicated good practice Complex emergent practice Rigid constraints Governing constraintsEnabling constraints probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond sense-categorize-respond Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. @danielwalsh
  12. 12. The Chaotic Domain Unknowable Cause-Effect Relationship 12 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. Disorder best practice Obvious Complicated good practice Complex emergent practice Chaotic novel practice Rigid constraints Governing constraintsEnabling constraints No constraints act-sense-respond probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond sense-categorize-respond @danielwalsh
  13. 13. The Disordered Domain Indeterminate Cause-Effect Relationship 13 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. Disorder best practice Obvious Complicated good practice Complex emergent practice Chaotic novel practice Rigid constraints Governing constraintsEnabling constraints No constraints act-sense-respond probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond sense-categorize-respond probe – sense – respond exploratory practice @danielwalsh
  14. 14. Cynefin Framework | Older Version* 14 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 *Reference: Complex Acts of Knowing by Dave Snowden Disorder Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Known Knowns Known Unknown Unknown Unknowns Unknowable @danielwalsh
  15. 15. 15 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Nature is adroit in creating objects whose only excuse for being seems to be to thwart someone’s effort to put them into a category. -Billy Vaughn Koen *Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn. Discussion of the Method. 2003. @danielwalshCC BY-SA 3.0 Platypus by TwoWings
  16. 16. 16 @danielwalsh Complex Disorder Complicated Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017
  17. 17. 17 @danielwalsh “…a jumbo jet is complicated but a mayonnaise is complex.” – Paul Cilliers Reference: https://www.theoryculturesociety.org/oliver-human-on-paul-cilliers/ CC BY-SA 2.0 by jules:stonesoup CC BY-SA 3.0 by Alex Beltyukov Disorder Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017
  18. 18. Cynefin Metaphors | Games 18 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Disorder Coin Toss BlackjackTexas Hold’em Poker Food Fight Calvinball* Reference: http://calvinandhobbes.wikia.com/wiki/Calvinball @danielwalsh
  19. 19. Cynefin Metaphors | Movement 19 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Disorder Police Roadblock Traffic LightRoundabout Brownian Motion @danielwalsh
  20. 20. Cynefin X Change 20 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Disorder Standards, Hard Rules, & Policy Enforcement Define Ideal State & Close Gap Manage Evolutionary Potential of Present Invest in Advance of Need @danielwalsh Scientific Management “Popular” Systems ThinkingAnthro-Complexity Chaos Engineering* *Reference: http://principlesofchaos.org/ Netflix post on Chaos Automation Platform
  21. 21. 21 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Three Principles Three Heuristics Three Methods Environment and interactions matter Obliquity Dispositional not causal Emergent possibilities of the present Disintermediation Grow from smaller systems that work Simple rules Probes Sense-making Leading Complex Change
  22. 22. 22 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Emergent possibilities of the present Disintermediation Grow from smaller systems that work Simple rules Probes Sense-making Environment and interactions matter Context is king Dispositional not causal Three Principles Three Heuristics Three Methods Leading Complex Change
  23. 23. Mathematics of Dots* 23 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 *Source: The Mathematics of Dots by Max Boisot Events as Dots Effect Patterns Connecting Dots Cause Links @danielwalsh Hindsight Does Not Lead To Foresight # of Dots # of Links # of Possible Patterns 4 6 64 10 45 ~35,000,000,000 n L=n(n-1)/2 P=2L
  24. 24. 24 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Emergent possibilities of the present Disintermediation Grow from smaller systems that work Simple rules Probes Sense-making Environment and interactions matter Context is king Dispositional not causal Three Principles Three Heuristics Three Methods Leading Complex Change
  25. 25. Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec201725
  26. 26. 26 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 Emergent possibilities of the present Disintermediation Grow from smaller systems that work Environment and interactions matter Context is king Dispositional not causal Three Principles Three Heuristics Three Methods Leading Complex Change Simple rules Probes Sense-making
  27. 27. 27 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017 @danielwalsh Complex Disorder Complicated Bet Hypothesis
  28. 28. Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.28 CC BY-SA 3.0 Storyteller doll by Rose Pecos-Sun Rhodes Sensemaking is a form of distributed ethnography Draws on concepts from anthropology, cognitive science, & complexity Gets the organization to talk to itself about itself
  29. 29. Sense-Making 29 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Employee and Manager Alignment Attitudes towards change were… thoughtful or enthusiastic. keep as is. Misaligned Aligned
  30. 30. Interventions 30 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Employee and Manager Alignment Attitudes towards change were… thoughtful or enthusiastic. keep as is. Misaligned Aligned How do we get more stories like these & fewer stories like those?
  31. 31. Complex Change Needs Ecological Metaphors Not Manufacturing Ones Change Agent As Gardener 31 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Dec2017
  32. 32. 32 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Nov2017 A kōan (公案) is a story, dialogue, question, or statement, which is used in Zen practice to provoke the "great doubt" and test a student's progress *Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C5%8Dan @danielwalsh
  33. 33. 33 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Nov2017 The more things change, the more they stay the same. @danielwalsh
  34. 34. 34 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Nov2017 A kōan (公案) for the change agents… @danielwalsh
  35. 35. 35 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Nov2017 How do you work with people, @danielwalsh Go To The Gemba Kaizen with where they are at, with what you have, to make small changes for the better?
  36. 36. 36 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA|Walsh;Nov2017 Thank You @danielwalsh Daniel.Walsh@nuCognitive.com

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