The document discusses how message framing in political communication can affect support for climate change policies. It finds that support can be increased by framing messages to match people's regulatory focus (whether they focus on opportunities/gains or risks/safety) and level of identification with the actors responsible for implementing climate policies (national or international institutions). Specifically: 1) Support is higher when message framing matches people's regulatory focus (gains vs safety) and focuses on positive vs negative outcomes. 2) Identification with policy actors and thus support is higher when messages attribute policies to groups people strongly identify with, like national vs international institutions. 3) Framing messages coherently across regulatory focus, outcomes,

1. Framing the future:
The effects of message framing in political
communication on climate change policies
Mauro Bertolotti
Patrizia Catellani
1st International Conference on Anticipation, Trento, November 5-7, 2015

2. Bertolotti & Catellani
If I eat less red meat, I will have a
longer, healthier life.
Thinking and communicating the
future
 Individuals anticipate future events through
prefactual thinking (Gleicher et al., 1995; Bakker et al., 1997).
 When individuals engage in or are exposed to
prefactual thoughts:
 They focus on a course of action leading to an expected
outcome (Petrocelli et al., 2012);
 They prepare for that course of action (Roese & Epstude,
2008; Sanna, 2006).
If we cut carbon emissions, we will
reduce the effects of global warming

3. Bertolotti & Catellani
Anticipating climate change
 Climate change is an emerging global issue
threatening our future as individuals, members of a
community and human beings.
 The scientific community first, and governmental
institutions then, have undergone collective efforts
to deal with this issue.
 Communication to the general public has been
limited, resulting in wavering support for climate
change policies.

4. Bertolotti & Catellani
Communication factors hindering
support for climate change action
1. Communication about climate change policies is often
very complex.
2. Communication often focuses on the threats of climate
change (global warming, natural disasters etc...), and
less often on the opportunities deriving from policy
adoption (technological advancements etc...).
3. Communication rarely defines the actors responsible for
climate change policies (the international community,
nations, individual citizens...)

5. Bertolotti & Catellani
Promoting support for climate change
action with message framing
Prefactual communication and message framing can be
used to:
1. select and organise information, providing it a
meaningful interpretation (Entman, 1993; Scheufele, 1999).
2. highlight both positive and negative aspects of
policy adoption (or non-adoption) (Cesario et al., 2013).
3. focus on given actors with whom the public
identifies (Masson & Fritsche, 2014; Schuck & De Vreese, 2006).

6. Bertolotti & Catellani
Prefactual framing and
regulatory focus
 Individuals spontaneously think about the future in
terms of opportunities and risks, depending on
situations and individual differences in regulatory focus
(Higgins, 1997).
 Message framing can be designed to reflect recipients'
self-regulatory processes (Cesario et al., 2013).
 Regulatory fit derives from the interaction among
multiple levels of framing and recipients' focus (Cesario et
al., 2004; Higgins et al., 2002).

7. Bertolotti & Catellani
Prefactual framing of
climate change policies
If we... then we will....
invest in renewable
energy sources
reduce greenhouse
gases emissions
Goal-pursuit strategies
(approach/avoidance)

8. Bertolotti & Catellani
Prefactual framing of
climate change policies
If we... then we will....
invest in renewable
energy sources
reduce greenhouse
gases emissions
obtain positive returns on
economic development
obtain a reduction in
natural disasters
Regulatory concerns
(growth/safety)

9. Bertolotti & Catellani
Prefactual framing of
climate change policies
If we... then we will....
invest in renewable
energy sources
reduce greenhouse
gases emissions
obtain positive returns on
economic development
avoid a negative impact
on economic development
Outcome sensitivities
(positive/negative)

10. Bertolotti & Catellani
Prefactual framing and
regulatory focus
Two online studies (N = 95; N = 66) with student
participants (77.5 % females, age M = 24.5).
Independent variables:
 Goal-pursuit strategy
 Regulatory concern
 Outcome sensitivity
Measured variables:
 Initial attitudes towards the policy
 Agreement with the policy message
 Voting intention
 Individual regulatory focus scale (Lockwood et al., 2002)
(Bertolotti & Catellani, EJSP, 2014)

11. Bertolotti & Catellani
Stimuli
Outcome Sensitivity
Regulatory
Concern
Achievement of Positive
Outcomes
Avoidance of Negative
Outcomes
Growth Concern
“…we will obtain a positive
return on the economic
development.”
“…we will avoid a negative
impact on the economic
development.”
Safety Concern
“…we will obtain a reduction of
energy costs.”
“…we will avoid an increase of
energy costs.”
Eager Approach Strategy:
“If we invest in renewable energy sources like solar and wind power…”
• To what extent do you agree with the statement you have just read?
• Would you vote for a politician making this statement?
(Bertolotti & Catellani, EJSP, 2014)

12. Bertolotti & Catellani
Stimuli
Outcome Sensitivity
Regulatory
Concern
Achievement of Positive
Outcomes
Avoidance of Negative
Outcomes
Growth Concern
“…we will obtain better climatic
conditions.”
“…we will avoid worse climatic
conditions.”
Safety Concern
“…we will obtain a reduction of
the negative effects of natural
disasters.”
“…we will avoid an increase of
the negative effects of natural
disasters.”
Vigilant Avoidance Strategy:
“If we intervene on the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible of global
warming…”
• To what extent do you agree with the statement you have just read?
• Would you vote for a politician making this statement?
(Bertolotti & Catellani, EJSP, 2014)

13. Bertolotti & Catellani
Agreement as a function of outcome
sensitivity and regulatory concern
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Attainment of Positive
Outcomes
Avoidance of Negative
Outcomes
Renewable Energy Policy
(approach strategy)
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Attainment of Positive
Outcomes
Avoidance of Negative
Outcomes
GH Gas Emissions Policy
(avoidance strategy)
(Bertolotti & Catellani, EJSP, 2014)
Growth Concern Safety Concern

14. Bertolotti & Catellani
Promoting support for climate
change action with message framing
Levels of
Message framing
Support for climate
change policies
Regulatory focus

15. Bertolotti & Catellani
Agreement as a function of outcome
sensitivity and regulatory focus
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Attainment of Positive
Outcomes
Avoidance of
Negative Outcomes
Renewable Energy Policy
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Attainment of Positive
Outcomes
Avoidance of Negative
Outcomes
GH Gas Emissions Policy
(Bertolotti & Catellani, EJSP, 2014)
Promotion Focus Prevention Focus

16. Bertolotti & Catellani
Prefactual framing and identification
Levels of
Message framing
Actors responsible
for the policy
Identification
Support for climate
change policies
Regulatory focus

17. Bertolotti & Catellani
Identification with the actors
responsible for climate change policies
 Climate change policy are currently designed and
implemented at a national or supra-national level.
 People can identify with different groups at once
(Castano et al., 2004; Turner et al., 1987).
 When communication focuses on the role of national or
supra-national institutions, recipients identified with
them more likely accept and support a policy.

18. Bertolotti & Catellani
Prefactual framing and
identification
ITANES panel survey (N = 3244) on a representative
sample of Italian voters.
Independent variables:
 Hedonic consequence of the message
 Regulatory concern of the message
 Political actor responsible of policy implementation
Measured variables:
 Agreement with the policy message
 National/supra-national identification ("I see my self as: Only
Italian / More Italian than European/Both Italian and
European/More European than Italian/Only European")
(Bertolotti & Catellani, EJSP, in press)

19. Bertolotti & Catellani
Stimuli
Hedonic Consequence
Regulatory
Concern
Positive Outcome Negative Outcome
Growth Concern
“…there will be positive returns
in terms of economic
development.”
“…there will be negative returns
in terms of economic
development.”
Safety Concern
“…the cost of energy will be
reduced.”
“…the cost of energy will
increase.”
“If Italy/Europe invests (doesn't invest) in renewable energy sources such
as solar and wind power…”
To what extent do you agree with the statement you have just read?
(Bertolotti & Catellani, EJSP, in press)

20. Bertolotti & Catellani
Agreement with the policy message as
a function of hedonic consequence
and regulatory concern
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
Growth Safety
Agreement
Positive
Consequence
Negative
Consequence
(Bertolotti & Catellani, EJSP, in press)
Regulatory Concern

21. Bertolotti & Catellani
Agreement as a function of message
framing and identification
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Congruently-framed Message
Identification
National Supra-national
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Incongruently-framed Message
Identification
National Supra-national
(Bertolotti & Catellani, EJSP, in press)
Italy Europe

22. Bertolotti & Catellani
Conclusions
 Prefactual communication can help people anticipating
the consequences of climate change policies.
 Support for climate change policies can be increased by
coherent framing of policy messages.
 The persuasiveness of prefactual communication depends
on:
 its fit with receivers' own way of anticipating the future
(regulatory focus).
 its fit with receivers' identification with the agents of change.

23. Thank you!