This document provides information on forecasting for SEO, including predicting organic traffic, analyzing potential income, studying required investment, and tracking predictions over time. It discusses estimating click-through rates and conversion rates based on past research. It also shows how to analyze keywords, predict timescales to achieve rankings, calculate required investment, and estimate potential income. Finally, it demonstrates building a profit and loss plan in Excel to forecast SEO performance and ROI over 1-2 years, including tracking metrics like positions and revenue over time.

1. Forecasting for SEO
Neil Walker
CTO
Just Search Ltd

2. Who am I?
Who am I? Neil Walker
URL: www.seomad.com
Twitter: @theukseo
Current Position:
• Owner of SEO Consultancy Firm SEO MAD LTD
Background:
• Chief technical Officer (CTO) for Just Search Ltd
Experience
• Worked or been involved with SEO for over
2500 clients in the UK and nearly 5000 clients
for Pan Europe.

3. Learning Objectives
The purpose of this seminar is to show you how to
create a factual SEO Business Plan / Case by:
1. Predicting organic traffic to your website
2. Analysing the potential income
3. Studying the investment required
4. Working out profit & loss for your business
plan.
5. Carrying out ongoing tracking of your
predictions
6. Looking at long term goals by reviewing the
potential from ranking between positions 10-
5 against 3-1.

4. Google’s Domination

5. Click Through Rates

6. Organic vs PPC Click Through Rates
Pt.1

7. Organic vs PPC Click Through Rates
Pt.2

8. Organic Click Through Rates
(Eye Tracking 2004)
People have been interested in
CTR for many years.
This image was highlighted by
SEO Researcher.com based on
research from Cornell
University from 2004

9. Organic Click Through Rates
(AOL 2006)
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CTR
Position in Google
CTR vs. Organic Position
August of 2006 AOL leaked millions of search records

10. Organic Click Through Rates
(Google 2010) Pt.1
This month GWT enhanced
their Top Search Query
Function.
At Just Search we compiled
sample data from 100
clients across 1500 key
phrases.

11. Organic Click Through Rates
(Google 2010) Pt.2
We took the data and also segmented in by Key Phrase length, again this revealed
some interesting information about ranking No.1

12. Organic Click Through Rates
(Google 2010) Pt.3
Finally we took the data and segmented by Brand, General, Location and Specific
Product key word searches.

13. Organic CTR
From the collated data we can now
make an educated guess at the
Click Through Rate if your website
ranks on the first page for a given
keyword
Position 2-10 = CTR 4.85%

14. Conversion Rates

15. Website Conversion Rates Pt1
PPC is a good way to find out your website’s conversion rate, however if you do not have
this luxury, there are a number of sources which can give you an idea of Average
Conversion rates.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Low Typical WCR High Typical WCR Low Finance WCR High Finance WCR Low E-commerce High E-commerce Average
Conversionrate
Type of Website
Website Conversion Rates

16. Website Conversion Rates Pt2
We also researched the Google Analytics accounts for the data of13 websites over a
total of 166,699 keywords.

17. Website Conversion Rates Pt3
From the collated data we can now make
an educated guess at the conversion rate
of a website
Average Conversion Rate = 2.9%

18. Keyword Analysis

19. Keyword Analysis Pt.1
Use a tool to give you the predicted traffic i.e.
1. https://adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal
2. Microsoft-advertising-intelligence
3. https://adwords.google.com/o/Targeting/Explorer

20. Keyword Analysis Pt.2
Take a look at your competitors, their demographic, what
keywords they are trying to rank for useful tools for this are:
1. www.semrush.com
2. www.keywordspy.com
3. www.alexa.com
4. www.google.com/adplanner

21. Keyword Analysis Pt.3
We now have the following data:
CTR on Ranking Organically between 2-10
Average Website Conversion Rate
Exact predicted Monthly Traffic per keyword
We now need:
Potential Timescale to gain results
Average Gross Profit per service / product.
Average Order Values

22. Income, Investment & Timescales

23. Predicting Timescales Pt1
This requires expertise!!
-If you’re client-side, then get estimated timescales from a
potential SEO provider
-If you’re agency-side, then look at all the factors required to
gain a ranking and use your experience to predict a timeline.
Ranking Factors
Age of site No. of pages
No. of links Type of keyword
Type of competition Internal linking
Resource required On Page Work

24. Predicting Timescales Pt2
Research shows the following can affect timescales within SEO.
1. Increase in Links
2. Age of Site

25. Predicting Timescales Pt3
Further research also shows the following affecting factors:
1. Industry
2. No of competing Pages.

26. Investment Required
Again client-side – You will get potential cost from
your SEO Provider.
Agency-side – You need to think about:
Investment factors
On Page Work Required
Link Building Budgets
Link Acquisition Hours
Content Writing Costs
Offline Investment Costs

27. Potential Income
Finally, to put your business plan together
you need to know your potential Gross Profit
%.
 Either an average GP
 Or even better a GP per product.
You will also need to look at your potential
Average Order Values or Product / Service
Prices
 Carry out market research
 E-commerce site / service site

28. Quick Overview
You should now have the following data:
 First Page CTR
Website Conversion Rate
Potential Keywords & Traffic
 Predicted Timescales
Investment Required
Average Order Value
Average Gross Profit

29. Financials

30. Putting it together
Use Excel to put all your information together
Keyword
Timescale
(Months)
Local
Monthly
Searches Organic % CTR
No. of Visits
pcm
Conversion
Rate No. of Sales pcm
Average Order
value Income GP% Profit
trainers 9 201000 65.00% 4.85% 6337 2.90% 183.76 £43 £7,811.60 60% £4,686.96
running shoes 5 60500 65.00% 4.85% 1907 2.90% 55.31 £39 £2,131.67 60% £1,279.00
puma trainers 8 27100 65.00% 4.85% 854 2.90% 24.78 £73 £1,812.82 60% £1,087.69
trainers sale 3 5400 65.00% 4.85% 170 2.90% 4.94 £35 £172.79 60% £103.67
sportswear 3 33100 65.00% 4.85% 1043 2.90% 30.26 £27 £830.06 60% £498.03
crocs 9 110000 65.00% 4.85% 3468 2.90% 100.56 £40 £4,044.71 60% £2,426.83
football boots 7 135000 65.00% 4.85% 4256 2.90% 123.42 £46 £5,700.79 60% £3,420.47
nike trainers 5 70000 65.00% 4.85% 2207 2.90% 64.00 £46 £2,955.96 60% £1,773.58
reebok trainers 3 18100 65.00% 4.85% 571 2.90% 16.55 £46 £754.07 60% £452.44
golf shoes 5 60500 65.00% 4.85% 1907 2.90% 55.31 £57 £3,134.45 60% £1,880.67
basketball shoes 4 22200 65.00% 4.85% 700 2.90% 20.30 £47 £953.90 60% £572.34
sale trainers 3 720 65.00% 4.85% 23 2.90% 0.66 £47 £31.20 60% £18.72
sports clothing 2 8100 65.00% 4.85% 255 2.90% 7.41 £33 £247.78 60% £148.67
england away shirt 4 2900 65.00% 4.85% 91 2.90% 2.65 £34 £89.08 60% £53.45
karrimor 7 20500 65.00% 4.85% 646 2.90% 18.74 £53 £1,002.30 60% £601.38
tennis rackets 6 27100 65.00% 4.85% 854 2.90% 24.78 £29 £723.69 60% £434.22
football tops 4 5400 65.00% 4.85% 170 2.90% 4.94 £74 £366.81 60% £220.08
adidas predator football
boots 2 3600 65.00% 4.85% 113 2.90% 3.29 £50 £165.91 60% £99.55
sports wear 3 8100 65.00% 4.85% 255 2.90% 7.41 £26 £190.98 60% £114.59
819320 25829 749.04 £33,120.58 £19,872.35

31. Pivot Table
Create a Pivot Table
Analyse the potential
income you will start
receiving for each
keyword for each
month.
Row Labels 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
trainers £7,812
running shoes £2,132
puma trainers £1,813
trainers sale £173
sportswear £830
crocs £4,045
football boots £5,701
nike trainers £2,956
reebok trainers £754
golf shoes £3,134
basketball shoes £954
sale trainers £31
sports clothing £248
england away shirt £89
karrimor £1,002
tennis rackets £724
football tops £367
adidas predator football boots £166
sports wear £191
Grand Total £414 £1,979 £1,410 £8,222 £724 £6,703 £1,813 £11,856

32. Investment
Your SEO Company advises it will cost you
£2500 pcm
Will you make a profit?
How long will it take you to break even?
How long will it take to pay back your investment?

33. Profit & Loss Year 1
Internet World 2010
P&L
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month 7 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10 Month 11 Month 12 Year 1 Average
Income £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £
2 Month Keywords - 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 414 4,551 379
3 Month Keywords - - 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 1,979 19,791 1,649
4 Month Keywords - - - 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 12,688 1,057
5 Month Keywords - - - - 8,222 8,222 8,222 8,222 8,222 8,222 8,222 8,222 65,777 5,481
6 Month Keywords - - - - - 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 1,363 9,541 795
7 Month Keywords - - - - - - 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 6,703 40,219 3,352
8 Month Keywords - - - - - - - 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 9,064 755
9 Month Keywords - - - - - - - - 11,856 11,856 11,856 11,856 47,425 3,952
Total - 414 2,393 3,803 12,025 13,388 20,091 21,904 33,760 33,760 33,760 33,760 209,055 17,421
COS
Cost of Sale (40%) - 165 957 1,521 4,810 5,355 8,036 8,761 13,504 13,504 13,504 13,504 83,622 6,969
Total - 165 957 1,521 4,810 5,355 8,036 8,761 13,504 13,504 13,504 13,504 83,622 6,969
Total Gross Profit - 248 1,436 2,282 7,215 8,033 12,054 13,142 20,256 20,256 20,256 20,256 125,433 10,453
Sales & Marketing Costs
SEO Costs 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 30,000 2,500
-
Net Profit - 2,500 - 2,252 - 1,064 - 218 4,715 5,533 9,554 10,642 17,756 17,756 17,756 17,756 95,433 7,953
Accumulative Net Profit (2,500) (4,752) (5,816) (6,035) (1,320) 4,213 13,767 24,409 42,165 59,921 77,677 95,433

34. Payback
(10,000)
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month 7 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10 Month 11 Month 12
SEO Payback
Accumlative Profit
Net Profit

35. 2 Year Profit Forecast
-4,000
-2,000
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
NetProfit
2 Year Profit Forecast

36. Tracking

37. Ongoing Tracking
1. Use Google Analytics
2. Set up Conversion Goals
3. Set up Goal Funnels
4. Set up E-commerce tracking (if applicable)
5. Set up Webmaster tools and monitor CTR
6. Set up web ranking reports to monitor positions
This will allow you to track the Business Plan you are
working towards

38. Google Analytics
– Custom Reporting Pt.1
You can drill down by Source, then display:
Visits
Transaction
Product Revenue
By Keyword.
This tells you which keywords are making
money!

39. Let’s look at Real Data !

40. Real Data – CTR & Conversion
(Month 11)
Keyword Local Search Volume Visits CTR Transactions Conversion Rate Income pcm Avg. Order Value
trainers 201000 2884 1.43% 136 4.72% £8,153 £60
running shoes 60500 1778 2.94% 74 4.16% £2,586 £35
puma trainers 27100 1566 5.78% 74 4.73% £41,455 £560
trainers sale 5400 2387 44.20% 87 3.64% £3,009 £35
sportswear 33100 2772 8.37% 62 2.24% £1,901 £31
crocs 110000 1529 1.39% 9 0.59% £187 £21
football boots 135000 1516 1.12% 87 5.74% £3,879 £45
nike trainers 70000 1516 2.17% 62 4.09% £2,660 £43
reebok trainers 18100 1417 7.83% 49 3.46% £1,915 £39
golf shoes 60500 1056 1.75% 12 1.14% £348 £29
basketball shoes 22200 1032 4.65% 62 6.01% £4,189 £68
sale trainers 720 557 77.36% 25 4.49% £823 £33
running shoes 40300 1778 4.41% 74 4.16% £2,586 £35
sports clothing 8100 509 6.28% 37 7.27% £1,889 £51
england away shirt 2900 248 8.55% 24 9.68% £1,579 £66
karrimor 20500 547 2.67% 49 8.96% £1,429 £29
tennis rackets 27100 323 1.19% 24 7.43% £1,317 £55
football tops 5400 280 5.19% 25 8.93% £1,330 £53
adidas predator football boots 3600 418 11.61% 25 5.98% £1,001 £40
sports wear 8100 506 6.25% 25 4.94% £848 £34
10.26% 5.12% £83,085

41. Predictions vs.. Actual Data
Subject Prediction Real Data
(Month 11)
Difference
Visits for keywords 25,829 24,619 - 1,210
No. of sales 749 1,022 + 273
Average CTR 4.85% 10.26% + 5.41%
Average Conversion
Rate
2.90% 5.12% + 2.22%
Income £33,120 £83,085 + £49,965
Average Order Value £44 £68 +£24

42. Actual P&L Year 1
Internet World 2010
P&L
Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month 7 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10 Month 11 Month 12 Year 1 Average
Income £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £
2 Month Keywords - - 415 1,049 2,061 1,264 2,204 1,666 2,602 1,606 2,890 15,757 1,432
3 Month Keywords 2,379 845 4,694 4,709 6,830 5,544 5,910 10,166 10,365 18,318 8,497 78,256 7,114
4 Month Keywords 659 868 302 699 590 1,124 302 1,157 5,481 3,860 7,098 22,140 2,013
5 Month Keywords - 720 4,006 4,574 3,863 3,241 1,033 7,153 18,026 12,326 5,595 60,537 5,503
6 Month Keywords - - 211 - - - - 1,239 1,859 - 1,317 4,627 421
7 Month Keywords 2,866 12,607 6,460 - 965 6,304 6,283 3,350 4,076 26,764 5,308 74,982 6,817
8 Month Keywords 709 393 - - 249 224 1,064 - 771 1,783 41,455 46,646 4,241
9 Month Keywords - 9,328 10,655 9,360 7,494 6,760 6,637 4,499 13,100 7,943 8,340 84,116 7,647
Total 6,612 24,761 26,744 20,391 22,051 24,460 23,434 29,229 56,281 72,600 80,499 - 387,061 32,255
COS
Cost of Sale (40%) 2,645 9,904 10,697 8,156 8,820 9,784 9,374 11,691 22,512 29,040 32,200 - 154,824 12,902
Total 2,645 9,904 10,697 8,156 8,820 9,784 9,374 11,691 22,512 29,040 32,200 - 154,824 12,902
Total Gross Profit 3,967 14,857 16,046 12,234 13,231 14,676 14,061 17,537 33,768 43,560 48,300 - 232,237 19,353
Sales & Marketing Costs
Existing Income 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 6,612 79,344 6,612
SEO Costs 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 30,000 2,500
Total 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 9,112 109,344 9,112
-
Net Profit - 5,145 5,745 6,934 3,122 4,119 5,564 4,949 8,425 24,656 34,448 39,188 - 9,112 122,893 10,241
Accumulative Net Profit (5,145) 600 7,534 10,656 14,775 20,339 25,287 33,713 58,369 92,817 132,005 122,893

43. Actual Payback
-10,000
-5,000
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
SEO Payback
Net Profit
Payback

44. Future Goals

45. Traffic vs.. Investment
12 months later you are ranking on the first page
Average Ranking positions of 10 to 5.
 How much is a top 2 position worth to you?
 How much are you willing to spend?

46. Traffic vs.. Investment
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
6-10 5 4 3 2 1
Increase in Traffic vs.. Increase in
Investment
Traffic Increase %
Investment Increase %
 23 x more traffic in No.1
 5.6 x more traffic in No.2
 3.7 x more traffic in No.3
It is very likely that
companies may need to
double or triple SEO
budgets to gain
positions 1 & 2, this is
well worth it!

47. Overview

48. Learning Objectives - Recap
Information
Predicting Organic Traffic to your website
Analysing the Potential Income
Studying the investment required
Working out profit & loss for your Business Plan.
Carrying out ongoing tracking of your predictions
Looking at long term goals by reviewing the potential from
ranking between positions 10-5 against 3-1.

49. Question / Debate