Fluctuations of Equity Share Price of the Selected Banks in Oman

Invention Journal of Research Technology in Engineering & Management (IJRTEM) ISSN: 2455-3689
www.ijrtem.com ǁ Volume 1 ǁ Issue 7 ǁ
| Volume 1 | Issue 7 | www.ijrtem.com | 12 |
Fluctuations of Equity Share Price of the Selected Banks in Oman
1
Sameena Begum, 2
Krutika Tukaram Achrekar
1
Assistant Professor, Waljat College of Applied sciences
ABSTRACT: Since Oman is experiencing a fall in the crude oil prices leading to the decline in share prices, there is a fear of an
economic slowdown. Oman being heavily dependent on oil to fund its national budget, it may experience a crisis due to this situation.
Capital Market Authority is the regulator or the governmental body which is responsible for governing the trading of securities in the
Sultanate. Muscat Securities Market is the exchange where all the listed securities are traded. The Central Bank of Oman is in charge
of keeping up the internal and external worth of the national money. It is also the single coordinated controller of Oman's finance
related services industry.
In this report we examine the equity shares price behaviour of six banks of Oman. These banks are listed in the MSM. A clear
comparison between these will help to forecast their future prices. This will benefit the shareholders in understanding and also to
make decisions regarding which bank to invest in to get maximum returns.
Keywords: Stock Market, Behaviour of Equity Share Prices, Conventional and Islamic Banks.
Introduction & Literature Review
1.1 Theoretical Concepts and Framework
Equity share is the part of the company that is not funded by loans but from purchase of shares of the business. This equity share
contributes a large part of financing for the business. If the value of the equity falls, the company cannot borrow money quickly as it
could before since it will be worthless.
1.2 Problem Statement
Investing in equity shares is risky and demands more time. However it can be rewarding in a long run. As an investor in equity shares
you are part owner of the company and can participate in its growth and also benefit from it. Therefore choosing the right company is
very important. If the investor chooses right company with right time perspective, it doesn't matter in long run if he bought it at right
price or not, because if the company is growing his investment rate will increase and it will make the initial investment price lose its
relevance.
This report discusses about which bank, it would be beneficial to invest in, due to the falling oil prices in Oman.
1.3 Theoretical Concepts and Framework
Investment is the act of investing or committing money by an individual or an organization to the purchase of financial instruments as
a means to make income or to gain profits. Investment is similar to saving. When the investment is made there is an expectation that
there will be some returns from the investment in the future.
Investments can be of various types: Capital Investment, Equity Investment, Investment in Land and Buildings, Investment in Gold,
Portfolio Investment, etc.
A market may be defined as a place where buyers and sellers meet to exchange goods and services, and may not necessarily involve
money. Market can be physical market or it can be virtual such as online market where the buyers and sellers do not interact.
A common type of securities market is the stock market. It is also known as the equity market. The stock market is a market where
shares of publicly held companies are traded through stock exchanges. Stock exchange is a place where stock brokers trade the stocks.
Companies might want to get themselves registered in these stock exchanges. It is an important part of any economy, since it gives the
companies an access to capital in exchange of giving a part ownership of their company to investors.
The stock market can be divided into primary market and secondary market. Primary market sells new issues through initial public
offering and secondary market is where the subsequent trading takes place.
1.4 Literature Review
(Joshi, Mrunal, 2013) a study on Indian Stock market and demonstrated that financial specialists require being ready about the
happenings in the market. Therefore, each and every investor needs to be attentive of the major issues affecting the stock market. In
the research it was tried to find out the aspects responsible for up-down movement in Indian stock market. From the study it was
discovered elements such as Flow of Foreign Institutional Investors, Political Stability, Growth of Gross Domestic Product, Inflation,
Liquidity and different interest rate and Global level factors are major factors responsible for the creation of movements in Indian
Stock Market.
(James A.Bennet & Richard W. Sias, 2001) conducted a study on "can cash streams anticipate stock returs" and is characterized as the
distinction amongst upstick and downstick dollar exchanging volume. The study says that despite the little published research

regarding its helpfulness, the measure has become a progressively popular technical indicator because of its own means. The study
summarises its most imperative finding that money flow appears to predict a cross-sectional variation in future returns. Their
predictive ability is sensitive, however to the method of money flow measurement.
(Shivaraju S, Mysore, & Rakesh H M, Assistant Professor, Dept of MBA, 2014) Depicted in his exploration "study of equity share
price of selected stocks from sectors" that securities exchanges assume a critical part in developing businesses and trade of a nation
that in the long run influence the economy. The study says the stock markets avail long-term capital to the listed firms by pooling
funds from diverse investors and permit them to expand in business and also offer investors elective speculation roads to put their
surplus funds in. The paper also evaluates the equity share prices of different companies of different sectors and says that investors
cautiously lookout the performance of stock markets by noticing the composite market index, before investing funds.
(R. Chitra, GRG School of Management Studies, Peelamedu, Coimbatore, TN, 2011) Examined in the paper "technical analysis on
selected stocks of energy sector" technical analysis is an investigation of securities exchange identifying with variables influencing the
free market activity of stocks furthermore helps in comprehension the inherent estimation of shares and to know whether the shares
are undervalued or overvalued. It shows the stock market indicators assist the investors to classify major market turning points. The
objective of the project was to study the technical analysis of selected stocks of energy sector and interpret on whether to buy or sell
them by using techniques which would help the investors to identify the current trends and risks involved.
(Singhal, Verma, & Khurana, 2014) did an research paper which contains the investigation of the quantity of stock prices which best
in class and declined on the New York stock Exchange on every trading day amid a four year time frame that value developments in a
securities exchange are of arbitrary nature. The study also shows that the prices of individual stock do not move independently and
there is strong tendency for prices to move in unison, up or down.
(Zoheir Ebrahim, Oliver R. Inderwildi, 2014) Did a study and said that dependency on oil-derived fuels on several sectors, most
notably in mobility, has left the global economy susceptible to numerous macroeconomic side effects. Numerous studies have
addressed the effect of price volatility on specific economic parameters. In the study, the analytical literature review and analysis of
the behavioral reactions of macroeconomic agents to OPV displays that such volatility has several destructive and threatening
macroeconomic impacts that will present a vital barrier to upcoming sustainable economic growth if left unchecked. To confirm
macroeconomic isolation from OPV, a mixture of supply and demand side strategies have been commended that can help to alleviate a
resilience to the economic uncertainty advanced by OPV.
(Tease, 1993) Did a research and reported the stock market has a significant role in sharing of resources, both directly and indirectly as
a source of funds and as a determinant of firm’s value and borrowing capacity. The project targets to inspect the connection between
equity prices and business environment, addressing the question of whether investment is influenced by ineffective pricing in equity
markets.
(A. A. Prakash, Shanmugha, & Valley, 2015) Analyzed the market price of the shares of a company tends to alter according to internal
as well as external factors. This study analyses the share price movement of bank industry as a rise in investment values throughout
India leading to revenue generation for banks. The tools used in this study are Simple moving Average, Relative strength Index,
Money flow Index, Linear Regression Findings.
(M. Prakash et al., 2015) conducted a research and their study shows a better understanding of stock market trend will permit
allocation of sources to the more lucrative investment prospect. The behavior of stock will assist investors to make suitable investment
decisions it measures the strength of the money involved in investing in the stocks. Simple moving average model is applied and
which would help investors in giving the sell or buy signal. In India, typically funds are raised through issue of shares.
(Mrs.J.Nithya, Dr.G.Thamizhchelvan Department of Commerce and International Business, 2014)Studied how the technical analysis
can be of valuable use for the investors in marking their investment decisions. Tools of technical analysis can be used to forecast the
stock prices. He also studied the right stock for investment and how to offer the reason for the investment based on the candlestick
charts and indicators. Also to study the activities of stock prices of particular company stocks through technical analysis. He used
descriptive method to analyse the price trend of fifteen stocks using MACD and RSI charting technique of technical analysis.
(GOVINDARAJAN et al., 2014)Conducted a study on how stock market plays a vital rol in mobilizing the savings and diverting it
into industrial enterprises. According to him, investment in stocks is not well received by all investors. He said that investment may be
made from short term perspective and from long term point of view. He said that though a number of statistical tools are available 200
days daily moving average, relative strength index, rate of change and Bollinger point are considered as reliable tools to help the short
term investors. The research paper focused on the share price movement o new private sector banks and analyse their reliability of the
statistical tool in suggesting the suitable time for entry and exit from such investment.

(Hemalatha & Krishna, 2013)Did a research paper on the technical analysis of equity share price of Canara Bank to analyse and
understand the equity share of the Canara Bank. The study was done to analyse the price movement of share, to compare the stock
price movements with the market and to discover the trend in the future. The data was analysed using the simple moving average,
relative strength index, exponential moving average, which gave results about the share prices of the company.
(Sailendra, 2015)Conducted a study in which he said banking sector is attracting many invetstors of shares to have it as a primary
option in their investment portfolio. These investors ae in search of information about the right share to be purchased and the best
time to invest. He said through this study the investors would know what tools they can use to take decisions on shares trading.
(Jayakumar & K.Sumanthi, n.d.)Conducted a research on Indian Banking sector which is one of the wide sectors in the country and
the various factors which affect the share prices of banking companies. A detailed analysis of the trend in share price movement is
given in the result. He considered the internal ad external factors which affect the prices of the shares of bank. He used the spss model
and shoed through regression and correlation between the share prices.
(A.Jayakumar & K.Sumanthi, 2014)Conducted a study on the technical analysis is a study of stock market relating to factors affecting
the supply and demand of stocks. In his study he said technical analysis recommend that users fine tune these parameters according to
what they see suitable for their strategy. It will help in the understanding of intrinsic value of shares. The paper contains a significant
technical analysis of the Union Bank which helps to understand the price behavior of the shares. The paper describes the use of
technical analysis for investors while buying and selling decisions with the technical analysis done for the Union Bank. It would help
the investors to identify the trend and risk.
1.5 Significance of Study
 It is beneficial to institutional as well as individual investors
 It gives insight of fluctuation of prices of shares
 It helps in making right investment decisions
 The study will also help to know the equity share price behaviour over a period of time
1.6 Objectives of the Study
This research study covers the following objectives:
 To observe the equity price behaviour of banks.
 To examine the effect of fall in oil prices on the shares of various banks.
 To study the day to day fluctuations in the equity share prices.
 To analyze how the variations in share prices have an impact on the trade decisions.
 To know the current trend and strength of trend of the banks.
1.7 Scope of the Study
This study covers the comparative study of technical analysis of 6 banks. 4 of which are conventional banks and 2 are Islamic banks.
It was conducted from January 2013 to May 2016. Thus research will give an idea to the investor about the fluctuations in share prices
and also an idea on which bank to invest in.
Research Methodology
Research methodology is a systematic way to resolve the research problem. Its main aim is to study how the research can be done and
also describes the methods of research and logic
2.1 Research Design
This study has employed descriptive research design. It involves the descriptive analysis of the selected 6 banks in Oman by using
technical analysis for evaluating the equity price behaviour.
2.2 Data Collection Method
To analysis this, secondary data was used. It was collected through articles, and official publications of authorised website of Muscat
Securities Market where the closing price of various stocks of six banks was given.
Sample unit: For this research, six banks in Oman are selected. The banks which were selected are:
1. Bank Muscat
2. National Bank of Oman
3. Bank Dhofar
4. Bank Sohar

5. Bank Nizwa
6. Alizz Islamic Bank
The first 4 banks are purely conventional bank .The last 2 are pure Islamic banks.
2.3 Analysis of Data: Tools & Techniques
The tool used in this research to study the fluctuations in the share prices are as discussed below:
 Simple Moving Average: The simple moving average is calculated by finding the average of stock price over a certain period of
time. As new data comes in the old data is pushed out. Therefore, it is called moving average. It is the most frequently used tool of
technical analysis used to find the fluctuations in the security price. Simple moving average helps the investors to make decisions
regarding whether to sell or buy a particular stock at a particular point of time.
 Relative Strength Index: The Relative Strength Index was developed by J. Welles Wilder. It is an oscillator that measures the rate
of changes in price movements. It oscillates between 0 and 100. The RSI will be said to be overbought when it is above 70, and
oversold when the RSI is below 30.
The RSI is calculated using the following formulas:
RSI = 100 – (100/1+RS)
Where RS = Average Gain /Average Loss
The first calculations for Average gain and average loss are for simple 14 period.
 First Average Gain = Sum of gains over past 14 periods/14
 First Average Loss = Sum of loss over past 14 periods/14
The next calculation are based on the previous average and current gain or loss
 Average Gain = [(previous average gain) * 13 + current gain]/14
 Average Loss = [(previous average loss) * 13 + current loss]/14
Now, if it is seen that the RSI crosses 70, the shares are overbought and is a signal to sell which leads to fall in share prices in the
future. If the RSI falls below 30, it means it’s a buy signal, since the shares are oversold and will lead to upward trend in future stock
prices.
2.4 Limitations to the Study
1. The study is limited banking sector only.
2. Only few banks were selected.
3. The study is based purely on secondary data and not primary data.
4. For the study only technical analysis is used.
Results & Discussion
3.1 Findings of the Study
The findings are as follows:
1. Bank Muscat
Figure 1-Simple Moving Average
From the above graph, it is seen that the SMA trend line of Bank Muscat indicates a downward penetration with the share price line.
This creates a sell signal for the investor. Since there is a high possibility for fall in the future prices of the stock.
0
0.5
1
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Price
Bank Muscat
Bank Muscat Share Price
Bank Muscat3yearly moving
average as trend

Figure 2 Simple Moving Average
From the above graph, it is depicted that the SMA trend line of National Bank of Oman indicates a downward penetration with the
share price line. This creates a sell signal for the investor. Since there is a high possibility for fall in the future prices of the stock.
3. Bank Dhofar
From the above graph, it is seen that the SMA trend line of Bank Dhofar indicates a downward penetration with the share price line.
This creates a sell signal for the investor. Since there is a high possibility for fall in the future prices of the stock.
4. Bank Sohar
From the above graph, it is seen that the SMA trend line of Bank Sohar indicates a upward penetration with the share price line. This
creates a buy signal for the investor. Since there is a high possibility for raise in the future prices of the stock. Now, the investor can
proceed to invest.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Price
National Bank of Oman
National Bank of Oman Share
Price
National Bank of Oman3yearly
moving average as trend
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Price
Bank Dhofar
Bank Dhofar Share
Price
Bank Dhofar3yearly
moving average as
trend
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Price
Bank Sohar
Bank Sohar Share
Price
Bank Sohar3yearly
moving average as
trend

5. Bank Nizwa
From the above graph, it is depicted that the SMA trend line of Bank Nizwa indicates an downward penetration with the share price
line. This creates a sell signal for the investor. Since there is a high possibility for fall in the future prices of the stock.
Alizz Islamic Bank
From the above graph, it is seen that the SMA trend line of Alizz Islamic Bank indicates a downward penetration with the share price
line. This creates a sell signal for the investor. Since there is a high possibility for fall in the future prices of the stock.
 Relative Strength Index
6. Bank Muscat
Figure 1 Relative Strength Index
In the above graph, the RSI line of Bank Muscat crosses 30 in March. This shows a buy signal. It indicates that the investor can go on
with investing more. It is preferable to hold the scripts till the trend line crosses the centerline and then sell at a later time to make
profits.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Price Bank Nizwa
Bank Nizwa Share Price
Bank Nizwa3yearly moving
average as trend
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Price
Alizz Islamic Bank
Alizz Islamic Bank Share Price
Alizz Islamic Bank3yearly
moving average as trend
0
20
40
60
80
100
JAN…
FEB…
APR…
MAY…
JUL…
AUG…
OCT…
DEC…
JAN…
MAR…
APR…
JUN…
JUL…
SEP…
NOV…
DEC…
FEB…
MAR…
MAY…
JUN…
AUG…
OCT…
NOV…
JAN…
FEB…
APR…
MAY…
BANK MUSCAT
RSI

In the above graph, the RSI line of National Bank of Oman falls between 70 and 30. This indicates the investor can hold the script for
some more time. The script is neither oversold nor overbought.
8. Bank Dhofar
From the above graph, it is depicted that the RSI trend line of Bank Dhofar is moving downwards. It may cross below 30 thus making
the stocks oversold. This creates a sell signal.
9. Bank Sohar
0
20
40
60
80
100
JAN01,2013
FEB07,2013
MAR…
APR23,2013
MAY…
JUL14,2013
AUG…
OCT…
DEC02,2013
JAN09,2014
FEB20,2014
APR02,2014
MAY…
JUN19,2014
AUG…
SEP10,2014
OCT…
DEC04,2014
JAN14,2015
FEB24,2015
APR05,2015
MAY…
JUN28,2015
AUG…
OCT…
DEC01,2015
JAN24,2016
MAR…
APR07,2016
MAY…
National Bank of Oman
RSI
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
01-Jan-13
FEB04,2013
MAR…
APR…
MAY…
JUN…
JUL15,2013
AUG…
OCT…
NOV…
DEC…
JAN30,2014
MAR…
APR…
JUN…
JUL08,2014
SEP10,2014
OCT…
DEC…
FEB15,2015
MAR…
MAY…
JUL13,2015
OCT…
NOV…
DEC…
FEB18,2016
APR…
MAY…
Bank Dhofar
RSI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
JAN01,2013
FEB13,2013
MAR27,2013
MAY12,2013
JUN24,2013
AUG06,2013
SEP23,2013
NOV12,2013
DEC26,2013
FEB09,2014
MAR23,2014
MAY08,2014
JUN22,2014
AUG11,2014
SEP22,2014
NOV11,2014
DEC25,2014
FEB10,2015
MAR26,2015
MAY11,2015
JUN24,2015
AUG17,2015
OCT01,2015
NOV16,2015
JAN10,2016
FEB23,2016
APR05,2016
MAY18,2016
Bank Sohar
RSI

From the above graph, it is depicted that the trend line of Bank Sohar is moving downwards. It touches 50 thus making the stocks
neither oversold nor overbought. This creates a buy signal. There might be a upward penetration in future stock price.
10. Bank Nizwa
In the above graph, the RSI line of Bank Nizwa falls between 70 and 30. This indicates the investor can hold the script for some more
time. The script is neither oversold nor overbought. The investor can sell the scripts later to make comfortable profits.
11. Alizz Islamic Bank
From the above graph, it is seen that the RSI trend line of Alizz Islamic Bank crosses below 30. It creates a buy signal since the script
is oversold. The investor tends to buy at this point of time.
Conclusions
The data was collected from seven banks which are listed in the Muscat Securities Market. All the data taken was from secondary
sources like Muscat Securities Market website, report, etc. Using the Simple Moving Average and Relative Strength Index, a study
was done on the behavior of the share prices of the companies.
With the help of the simple moving average and the relative index strength trend lines, the investor can be comfortable to find to
decide on whether to buy or hold or to sell the shares at a particular time period and make good profits.
The shares market has a possibility to become stable in the future. Therefore, the seller can hold the shares till the market gains
stability or the crude oil achieves better price, i.e it follows a fixed bearish or bullish trend. Once the crude oil prices become stable,
the sellers can sell and buyers can buy the shares of the oil and gas companies.
With the help of the trend lines it is found out that the shares of the banking sector have a potential to rise in the future. So, the
investor can take a decision to capitalize or hold the shares for some time.
The RSI trend line of the banks also demonstrates an opportunity for the investor to get income though there is a decrease in stock
value at present.
There is great in volatility seen by the market observers as a sign of shareholder tension which in the counter-initiative world is quite
strong. The investors can invest in the companies which are improving. Also the shareholders are recommended to hold the shares
until the shares follow a fixed bearish or bullish trend.
0
50
100
JAN…
FEB…
MAR…
MAY…
JUN…
JUL…
SEP…
OCT…
DEC…
JAN…
MAR…
APR…
JUN…
JUL…
SEP…
OCT…
DEC…
JAN…
FEB…
APR…
MAY…
JUL…
AUG…
SEP…
NOV…
DEC…
FEB…
MAR…
APR…
BANK NIZWA
RSI
0
20
40
60
80
100
JAN02,2013
FEB05,2013
MAR…
APR11,2013
MAY…
JUN18,2013
JUL21,2013
AUG…
OCT02,2013
NOV…
DEC30,2013
FEB10,2014
MAR…
MAY…
JUL10,2014
SEP04,2014
NOV…
JAN11,2015
MAR…
MAY…
JUL28,2015
SEP28,2015
NOV…
DEC09,2015
JAN21,2016
FEB24,2016
MAR…
APR28,2016
RSI
RSI

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Online Source
http://www.investopedia.com
https://www.msm.gov.om/
https://www.cma.gov.om/
http://mctgases.com/CompanyProfile.aspx
http://www.almaha.com.om/products-services/

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