The document provides an analysis of global markets and the economy from FinLight Research. Key points include:
1) The US election uncertainty is over but markets are still digesting implications of Trump's victory. Earnings had been improving but higher wages could weigh on margins.
2) The global economy appears to be improving but investors should avoid complacency given uncertainty. The focus is on 3Q earnings season, rising wages, expected inflation, and volatile volatility.
3) Macroeconomic indicators show mixed signals with strong employment/income but weak industrial production. Systemic risks include high Chinese debt and a potential hard Brexit.
4) Equity valuations remain high and earnings growth is needed for further gains.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Trade talks still dominate sentiment with focus on US GDPHantec Markets
The outcome of the trade negotiations between the US and China will continue to impact on market sentiment this week, but the tier one US data will also be in focus with Advance GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation measure along with the forward looking PMIs all key. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
A dollar correction? Tier one day could be key next weekHantec Markets
The run of dollar strength may come up against some near term profit-taking but the outlook remains strong. The clutch of tier one data throughout this week could shape the near to medium term outlook. We look at the position of forex, equities and commodities for the coming days.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Trade talks still dominate sentiment with focus on US GDPHantec Markets
The outcome of the trade negotiations between the US and China will continue to impact on market sentiment this week, but the tier one US data will also be in focus with Advance GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation measure along with the forward looking PMIs all key. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
A dollar correction? Tier one day could be key next weekHantec Markets
The run of dollar strength may come up against some near term profit-taking but the outlook remains strong. The clutch of tier one data throughout this week could shape the near to medium term outlook. We look at the position of forex, equities and commodities for the coming days.
Mobile value exchange: How incentivization changes mobile behavior - Dynamic ...Merlien Institute
Presented by Joline Mc Goldrick, Research Director, Dynamic Logic,
Jayne Dow, Director, Firefly Millward Brown
& Deborah Powsner, Senior Director Marketing , SessionM
at Market Research in the Mobile World North America
17 - 18 July 2013, Minneapolis, USA
This event is proudly organised by Merlien Institute
Check out our upcoming events by visiting http://www.mrmw.net
Something fishy is going on in the world of mobile research - Sea Harvest & TNSMerlien Institute
at Market Research in the Mobile World Africa 2014
November 5-6, 2014 Cape Town
This event is proudly organised by Merlien Institute
Check out our upcoming events by visiting http://mrmw.net/
Maximising internet based mobile research in Africa - TNS & BinuMerlien Institute
at Market Research in the Mobile World Africa 2014
November 5-6, 2014 Cape Town
This event is proudly organised by Merlien Institute
Check out our upcoming events by visiting http://mrmw.net/
Cracking the code…Insights for mobile from behavioral sciences - Pondering PandaMerlien Institute
at Market Research in the Mobile World Africa 2014
November 5-6, 2014 Cape Town
This event is proudly organised by Merlien Institute
Check out our upcoming events by visiting http://mrmw.net/
The why, what and how to use mobile marketing in Africa - MMA SAMerlien Institute
at Market Research in the Mobile World Africa 2014
November 5-6, 2014 Cape Town
This event is proudly organised by Merlien Institute
Check out our upcoming events by visiting http://mrmw.net/
What are the key trends and differences in mobile research around the world? In this presentation, Sue will highlight the key things that researchers need to know.
Steve August and Corrine Sandler Research Innovation 2016Ray Poynter
How do you decide where in a store to put a new healthy snacking item? FocusVision and market research firm, Fresh Intelligence, utilized mobile research technology to investigate shopping habits and purchasing decision factors among snack food consumers. With this approach, we uncovered insights that can help brands increase shopping frequency and convert more shoppers into buyers. This talk will cover how we designed the study to map consumer snacking habits from the home to the snack aisle, and key learnings about how to get the most of in the moment mobile qual.
Vision 2030 - How mobile market research will fit in for stakeholders across ...Merlien Institute
Presented by Dan Foreman, Director, Lumi Mobile
& Andy Lees, Product Director, Lumi Mobile
at Market Research in the Mobile World Europe
8 - 11 October 2013, London, Europe
This event is proudly organised by Merlien Institute
Check out our upcoming events by visiting http://www.mrmw.net
Mobile Research – What’s the point - Millward BrownMerlien Institute
at Market Research in the Mobile World Africa 2014
November 5-6, 2014 Cape Town
This event is proudly organised by Merlien Institute
Check out our upcoming events by visiting http://mrmw.net/
Clustering by mobile usage and behaviour – the many faces of smartphone users...Merlien Institute
at Market Research in the Mobile World Africa 2014
November 5-6, 2014 Cape Town
This event is proudly organised by Merlien Institute
Check out our upcoming events by visiting http://mrmw.net/
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
It's not getting any easier to invest, with the US economy growing quickly in the midst of trade wars and rising interest rates. The rest of the world is performing more modestly, and is more worried by US developments than the Americans.
Australia's doing better than we realise, with expansion of our resource exports, and population growth supportive of our economy, if not our stock market.
The easy gains in markets are past - we are confronted by rising world interest rates in conjunction with already elevated asset prices. Managing risk and avoiding complacency will be key.
Growth stocks are most expensive relative to their net present value, while value stocks have been depressed in relative terms. Markets are overpricing growth and underpricing stability.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
LBS - Asset Allocation Model – February UpdateMark MacIsaac
Robust and synchronized upswing in global economic growth, still accelerating earnings growth, global consensus earnings projections continuing to improve and accommodative financial conditions all remained supportive of equities in January.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
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NO1 Uk Black Magic Specialist Expert In Sahiwal, Okara, Hafizabad, Mandi Bah...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
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how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
2. “Patience is not just about waiting for
something… it's about how you wait, or
your attitude while waiting.”
– Joyce Meyer
2
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
3. Executive Summary: Global Asset Allocation
The passing of the US election has taken a key event risk off the table.
But markets continue to digest the implications of Mr Trumps surprise
victory.
Trump’s victory has triggered a global sell-off in equities, credit and oil,
and a jump in volatility. All these moves have been short lived and
reversed the day after.
Market optimism was driven by the prospect of large fiscal stimulus,
infrastructure spending and a Republican control of both Houses. No
one seems warried anymore about the downside risk from an escalation
in protectionism and global populist backlash.
On the surface, the global economy is getting better. But, investors
should avoid complacency in such an uncertain environment
Our focus is 3Q earnings season, rising wages and their impact on
margins, expected inflation and volatile volatility.
Earnings had already been on an improving trend, with a number of key
sectors showing a dramatic turnaround. Expected inflation is ticking up.
Global bond yields too.
Not much has changed in our expectations, except for Govies and
energy
We summarize our views as follows
3
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
4. MACRO VIEW
The Good
US Election uncertainty is over.
US 3Q GDP has grown 2.9%, well above the 1.1% average growth of 1H-2016.
Global Manufacturing PMI reports improved across the board in October, going against all
recession talks. China's manufacturing PMI for the month of October recorded its highest level in 2
years (51.2)
Personal income and spending were up 0.3% and 0.5% respectively
Michigan sentiment is getting better with a reading of 91.6
The Bad
Industrial Production in China slipped to 6.1%, from an expected 6.8%
Durable goods orders appear extremely weak, pointing to a late-cycle economic stage.
The Ugly
Main systemic risk resides in China: Chinese debt bomb is ticking. Debt is used to create the
illusion of growth. The Chinese banking sector is going to end up needing a bailout.
The hard Brexit risk should be monitored closely.
Something huge is probably gathering in Japan: Abenomics has failed! Contrary to every
economic theory, debt accumulation, debt monetization and record amounts of currency creation
have resulted in a rising yen and falling prices.
4
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
5. 5
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
The Big Four Economic Indicators
The current picture is characterized by relatively strong Employment and Income, a weak Industrial
Production (probably in recovery mode since its Mar ‘16 lows) and Real Retail Sales hovering
around a flat line.
The average of these indicators has been trending lower since Nov. ‘14, suggesting that the economy is
still moving sideways. Industrial Production has been the weakest link in the economic recovery since
the GFC. But the picture has been getting mildly better since June.
6. 6
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
GS – Global Leading Indicator (GLI)
The October Final GLI came in
at 3.0% yoy (up from 2.8% in
September). Its MoM
momentum came at 0.29%
(slightly down from its last
month’s 0.31%)
The October GLI reading is
back in economic slowdown
area.
Seven of the ten underlying
components of the GLI
improved in August.
Despite the better shape of
GLI momentum, we continue
to think that the acceleration
we’ve been witnessing since
Jan. ‘15 is quite modest for
a typical expansion phase
7. 7
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US GDP Growth
On Oct. 27th, the Atlanta Fed
released its GDPNow model
forecast for 3Q real GDP
growth (seasonally adjusted
annual rate) at 2.1%
The advance 3Q GDP results
were reported at 2.9%, the
biggest gain in two years.
We expect this estimate to be
revised down from here.
8. 8
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Capital Goods Orders
US Capital Goods Orders
have been flat to down since
2012.
Durable goods orders also
appear extremely weak,
pointing to a late-cycle
economic stage.
Despite their high margins
and profits, businesses
haven’t invested enough to
boost future productivity.
Without business investment,
it seems hard for GDP growth
to accelerate above the 1.5-
2% range
9. 9
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Employment
In the same time, private
sector jobs growth has slipped
to a 1.5% over the past 6
months.
With weak jobs growth and
no productivity gains,
economic growth would
hardly do much better than
2% p.a.
10. 10
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Labor Cost
The US labor market is late
in the cycle and should
drive wages up.
YoY growth in average hourly
earnings rose to 2.8% in
October, its highest level since
May 2009!
Higher labor costs would
weigh on corporate margins
and already stagnating
productivity.
Inflation is probably the next
indicator to watch at.
11. 11
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
Inflation Expectations
Forward inflation has
picked up in recent weeks.
The move has been
accentuated by the surprise
victory of Mr. Trump, given
his announced policy of fiscal
spending and trade
protectionism.
The policy mix has shifted in
the direction of more inflation
The reflation trade is finally
back!
12. 12
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
EQUITY
Our equity outlook remains cautious. We see the market more vulnerable than ever to growth,
earnings and policy disappointments.
The US equity valuation picture has hardly changed since last quarter. Whatever metrics we consider,
US stocks look expensive, making the pressure to deliver a positive earnings growth very substantial
Trump’s victory has triggered a global sell-off in equities, credit and oil, and a jump in volatility. All these
moves have been short lived and reversed the day after
Earnings momentum is picking up in Q3. The earnings picture, while slightly worsened by energy,
looks fine, even if many firms have commented on the potential risk to profit margins from higher wages
US equities seem priced for a rebound in earnings growth, but hardly for a stronger dollar, nor for
higher treasury yields…
Equity risk premium for US stocks has declined with Trump’s victory, which seems at odds with the lack
of certainty we have on the new president’s economic plans…
We still think that key fundamental data will eventually matter… in a BIG BIG way. For now, investors
are buying the rumor of better future earnings. One day, they will be selling the news of bad effective
earnings.
13. 13
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
EQUITY
We remain Neutral on S&P 500 but with a bearish bias as we see headwinds from the resumption of
the Fed rate hike cycle and a strong Dollar.
We remain UW Europe into year-end because of elevated political uncertainty (from Brexit and the
Italian referendum) and uncertainty on ECB policy
Nevertheless, we believe equities are likely to outperform bonds over the next 12 months
14. 14
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
EQUITY
The main question: Is the market consolidating gains, or is that a top forming?
Our scenarios are unchanged.
Our main scenario from here (70% chance) : A massive top forming around 2170-2190
Equities remain expensive, earnings growth poor and profit margins are showing increasing
evidence of peaking. On Price/Sales metric, equities are trading at the top of the historical range.
A resumption of earnings growth going into 2017 will be necessary for equities to move higher.
Our alternative scenario (30% chance) : The S&P500 breaks the 2170-2190 resistance, opening
the way to 2225 - 2300. Such a breakout would need a new round of stimulus and/or a new impulse
to macro fundamentals
A pull back below 2060 is needed in order to confirm our primary scenario!
Above 2200-2225, we’ll be obliged to recognize the alternative scenario is in.
15. 15
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
EQUITY
Bottom line :
De-risking should continue. A higher allocation to cash is sensible in this late-stage stock bull.
We adjust our positioning rules on the S&P 500 as follows:
We remain Neutral above 2090
To switch to OW again, we need a material break higher than 2170 - 2190
We will switch to UW as soon as the 2090 level is materially broken to the downside.
Any clean break below the ‘09 trend would make us move massively UW
We like the low US beta. We remain Neutral Japan and UW Europe vs. US.
We remain UW in US small caps vs large caps.
We expect the rising trend in bond yields and inflation to hurt defensives and support the
outperformance of cyclicals. But given their relative valuation, we choose to stay OW defensives
vs. cyclicals
We also move Neutral value vs growth stocks.
In our previous report, we expressed the view that low vol/min vol stocks are increasingly
vulnerable. We maintain this view.
A stronger USD, rising yields and a potential headwind to global trade (with more protectionism)
are expected to hurt the relative performance of EM. LatAm is the most vulnerable EM region to
these factors, specially US dollar strengthening. We remain UW EMs vs DMs.
16. 16
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Earnings
The S&P500 is finally getting out
of its earnings recession.
For Q3 2016, the blended earnings
growth rate for the S&P 500 is
2.9% (+6.2% if the Energy sector is
excluded). If the index reports
growth in earnings for the quarter,
it will mark the first time the index
has seen year-over-year growth in
earnings since Q1 2015 (0.5%).
For all of 2016, the estimated S&P
500 growth rate is now projected at
+0.2% for earnings and +2.2% for
revenues
The forward 12-month P/E ratio is
now 16.7, which is well above the
5-year (15.0) and 10-year (14.3)
averages.
Analysts still expect earnings
growth to return in Q4 2016
17. 17
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Earnings
The earnings picture, while slightly blemished by energy, seems to be on a good trend from here.
18. 18
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – A Long-Term Perspective
Equity markets still appear at
lofty valuations on virtually
any and every historical
valuation metric
At the end of October, the
average of the 4 indicators we
use stands at 71%, not far
below its interim peak of 78% in
Feb. ‘15
All these indicators suggest a
cautious long-term outlook and
weak long-term return
expectations These
measures are consistent with
flat (0%) 12 year S&P 500
nominal total returns
19. 19
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – A Long-Term Perspective
Indicators like P/E10
ratio (26.5) and Real
S&P distance from its
LT trend (85%) are also
pointing to sky high
valuations;
20. 20
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – Equity Risk Premium
The only long-term relative value measure that is still (seemingly) bullish is provided by the gap between
dividend yields and treasury yields
If government yields increase (which is our main scenario), the S&P 500 is bound to decline in order to
continue offering the same risk premium. Higher interest rates will clearly lower the demand for high-
yielding stocks.
Equity risk premium for US stocks has declined since Trump’s victory. We feel concerned about this
drop given the uncertainties surrounding Trump’s economic plans.
21. 21
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – A Medium-Term Perspective
The run up in S&P500
since just before US
elections, has been
impulsive.in nature.
In a few days, the index
was able to break its
series of lower highs
since August
The levels to watch
from here are : the
trendline through the
lows since Feb. ‘16
(currently around 2180)
and the 200-dma
(currently around 2090).
Reintegrating the
uptrend since Feb
lows would give a
clearly bullish signal.
22. 22
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – A Short-Term Perspective
After a long period of inactivity, our prop. Short-Term trading model has switched to mildly short since
Nov 7 (@ 2131).
5 systems are targeting a break below 2103, 2083 and 2062. Next level to watch on the upside: 2189
Bottom line: Mildly bearish
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1900.0
1950.0
2000.0
2050.0
2100.0
2150.0
2200.0
2250.0
2300.0
112
375
356
100
224
343
328
333
351
269
172
340
271
373
250
285
165
164
217
254
177
400
34
31
UpProba&NextMove(1=Up/0=Down)
Lower/UpperBound
System ID
Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
Next Digit Up
Proba
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
2000.0
2200.0
2400.0
39000.0
41000.0
43000.0
45000.0
47000.0
49000.0
51000.0
53000.0
janv.-06 sept.-08 juin-11 mars-14 déc.-16
S&P500
NAV
Quant Model
S&P500
23. 23
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – Short-Term Breadth
As a result of the US election, the downtrend line in 50-dma breadth has been broken to the upside.
This is unambiguously a bullish ST signal.
24. 24
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Stocks – VIX Indicators
Our long vol
positioning has
proved to be
profitable.
The VIX is now back
to its “relaxed” levels.
The same is true for
the VXV-VIX ratio: the
futures curve slope
has rebounded from
its lows (panic levels),
but hasn’t reached yet
euphoric levels.
The Trump’s victory
induced move is going
too high to fast.
We keep an eye on
both indicators,
looking for
complacency.
25. 25
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Stocks – Tail Risk Hedging
Tail risk hedging could be (loosely) quantified by vol of vol and skew.
Now that the wall of worry is down and despite the remaining uncertainties (on growth, Fed’s policy,
geopolitics…), both indicators have come back down.
Investors are now doing very little to hedge tail risks; another reason to keep an eye on volatility,
volatility of volatility and skew…
26. 26
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
Stocks, Earnings and IPOs
In the past 2 years, more than 70% of
companies that went into IPOs had
negative earnings.
Its similar to the 2000 bubble, but
fortunately on lower volumes.
Most of this distortion is due to the
biotech sector.
27. 27
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Stocks – Growth vs Value
Value stocks have been
outperforming Growth stocks
since Feb. ‘16
Market-neutral value factor has
posted its best month since 2014
This is typical of optimistic times
with investors becoming more
positive on the economy and the
market.
We are now more cautious about
this move as we see a lot of
question marks around growth,
yields, US dollar and Fed’s policy.
We move from OW to Neutral on
value stocks vs growth stocks.
Source: Goldman Sachs
28. 28
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Stocks – Cyclicals vs Defensives
The rally in Cyclicals that began mid-
year has been accentuated by
Trump’s surprise election.
The move was driven by Financials
versus Utilities.
The move may be explained by rising
inflation expectations, rising interest
rates, better growth perspectives, more
fiscal spending and potentially reduced
regulation under Trump’s
administration.
Source: Goldman Sachs
29. 29
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Stocks – Cyclicals vs Defensives
Looking forward, Cyclicals
outperformance may persist.
However, and given Cyclicals relative
(extreme) over-valuation vs.
Defensives, we stay OW defensives
vs. cyclicals
Source: Goldman Sachs
30. 30
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
GOVIES
Bonds had their worst month in a while. Ten-year US Treasury yields jumped by nearly 40 bp this
week and now yield 2.2%, up from 1.8% at the end of last week.
Yields were led by a bounce in inflationary expectations, a more resilient economic growth, and the
potential for an increase in the volume of debt issuance needed to fund more planned fiscal spending.
Expectations of a more hawkish Fed have also lifted real rates.
We continue to expect the Fed to hike in December, followed by two or three hikes in 2017
We’ve turned to UW on 10y-USTs since the 1.85 resistance was breached.
The sell-off in Govies should continue as bond valuations are still stretched, inflation is expected to
rise, and Central Banks outlook appears less supportive for duration. ECB/BoJ QE programs may be
replaced by fiscal policies.
We also expect the curve to steepen. We did right by getting out of our long flatteners positions, a
month ago.
Trump’s victory should increase the focus on political risk in Europe as it provides another evidence of
a global populist backlash. The rise in the US would likely exert upward pressure on other
European yields.
We remain Underweight US 10-year bonds vs. Germany as reflation pressures are much more
focused on the US.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
31. 31
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
INFLATION-LINKED
Wage pressures have affected inflation expectations. Since late June, 10-year breakeven inflation
has jumped from 1.3% to 1.7%.
We remain to OW 10y-TIPS. We are bullish on US breakevens given the supportive macroeconomic
backdrop and record retail demand for TIPS
We remain Neutral HICP Inflation as we see breakevens trading sideways
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
32. 32
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
CORPORATE CREDIT
Credit is expensive relative to the fundamentals . fundamentals continue to deteriorate, with EBITDA
growth continuing to decline and net leverage rising further (especially in the US). But central
bank QE from Europe and Japan remains a support.
We still see significant demand for US spread products given the low level of Euro HG credit
yields. Surprisingly, the demand for USD credit remains strong, despite the rising cost of FX risk
hedging, suggesting appetite for unhedged exposure
Concerns around European banks, combined with a hard Brexit stance from the UK make European
credit markets riskier than their US counterparties.
We remain overweight US vs EUR credit (more on IG than HY) because of our fundamentally
bearish view on European credit, the relative yield disadvantage and the fact that the re-leveraging
cycle looks more mature in the US.
In high yield, we keep our bias towards higher quality. Any unpriced rate hike (and/or dollar
strengthening) would weigh on low quality bonds (High Yield and EM debt). We remain UW on HY
and Neutral on IG.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
33. 33
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
EM DEBT
The dollar strengthening is on track and would weigh on EM debt
We remain Neutral on EM bonds, because of all the macro challenges facing the EM economies at a
time when the Fed is likely to be more hawkish
Bottom line : UW Govies, UW US vs Eurozone Govies, long steepeners on the US yield curve,
remain short duration in 2y USTs, UW credit mainly through HY and Neutral on IG (duration hedged),
UW Eurozone vs US in IG & HY credit, OW 10y-TIPS breakevens and Neutral HICP Inflation, UW High
Yield vs High Grade, Neutral on EM sovereigns with a little preference for hard currencies bonds.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
34. 34
US Govies – 10y UST
With Trump’s surprise election, the
10y-UST yields jumped by nearly 40
bps to reach 2.20%.
This sharp move was mostly
driven by inflation expectations
With Trump’s announced plans of
fiscal spending, tax cuts and
infrastructure investment, the market
is betting on an increase in US debt
issuance
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
35. 35
US Govies – 10y UST
The rise in yields will induce a
substantial loss in real wealth.
According to a Goldman Sachs
estimate, a 100bp increase in 10y
yields would translate into a
$1.1tn market value loss for the US
Aggregate Bond Market Index
Such a rise would no doubt have an
impact on yields in the Eurozone,
specially in high debt markets (Italy,
for instance).
We expect the JGB market to remain
immune, at this stage.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
36. 36
US Govies – 10y UST
According to our positioning
rule, we’ve moved from
Neutral to UW 10y USTs as
the 10y yield breached 1.80.
With Trump’s surprise victory,
the 10y-UST yield has broken
through the January ‘14
downtrend and reached 2.23
The downside move seems
damaged.
Our positioning rules are
adjusted a follows:
Remain UW above 2.00
Neutral between 1.65 and
2.00
OW below 1.65
Move to Neutral again
around 1.25-1.28
The next important level to
watch is 2.23
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
37. 37
US Govies – 10y UST
3-month correlation between bond
futures and equity prices is typically
negative
Bond-equity correlation turned
positive in September, and has
remained in positive territory since
then.
Last times we’ve seen this positive
correlation, bond markets sold off.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
38. 38
US Credit - Fundamentals
US balance sheet fundamentals and
credit quality continue to deteriorate.
We see more debt when earnings
and revenues are struggling
Net leverage ratios are now at
levels similar to those reached in
the late 1990s.
The picture is concerning but in
some way smoothed by the still high
interest coverage .
With rising yields, focus would
eventually go back to balance
sheet fundamentals
This picture is US specific. Despite
the CSPP, we see no sign of
releveraging in European non-
financials.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
39. 39
US Credit – HY Default Rate
The 12-month trailing HY default rate
continues to increase. But most of its
move is due to Oil & Gas and Metals
& Mining
When these sectors are excluded,
the default rate seems more
flattish around 1.9%.
Any contagion from Energy, Metals
and Mining to the rest of the HY
market looks improbable as far as
the recession risk remains under
control.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
40. 40
US Credit – HY Default Rate
The 5-year cumulative default rate is
just above its lows, and should
continue its move higher towards
2008/2009 peaks.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
41. 41
US Credit – Rating Drift
The rating drift for US / European issuers has shown some signs of improvement with downgrades
slowing over the last months.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
42. 42
US / EUR Credit
The compression we’ve seen in the HY/IG spread ratios seems to be exhausted.
The CSPP impact is already in prices.
We continue to prefer IG to HY on a risk-adjusted basis, even in the EUR credit complex
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
43. 43
EXCHANGE RATES
Central banks remain the key driver of foreign exchange, We remain structural Dollar bulls. Our
rationale was that divergence would drive rate differentials in favor of the Dollar.
As expected, the dollar is now supported by the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and bets on a rate hike in Dec
‘16. But it is not soaring as it should be.
Dollar Looks Bullish, But Needs To Break Out
The DXY index is now close to its 15’ highs, coming into significant resistance near 100
Our first target of 1.07 has been reached on EUR-USD. The spot is now testing the critical support
area of 1.07-1.06
We remain UW for the moment. We will move to Neutral above 1.14, and to OW if the spot breaks
above the 1.15 resistance (the ceil of the triangle pattern formed since Mar. ‘15) to target 1.18
Our positioning rules remain unchanged:
Move to Neutral within the 1.14 - 1.15 range
Move to OW if the spot breaks above the 1.15 resistance to target 1.18
Remain UW below 1.14.
Over the medium-term (Q4-2016 and H1-2017), we maintain our downside projections towards
1.04-parity. For that, we need a clean break through the strong support area of 1.06 (the floor of the
triangle pattern).
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
44. 44
EXCHANGE RATES
On USD-JPY, we’ve moved from Neutral to OW around 104 on Oct. 11, targeting 104.8 and 108
Our target is already reached and exceeded. Next levels to watch: 111 and 113
We adjust our positioning rules on USD-JPY as follows:
Remain OW above 108
Move to Neutral below 108
Only a break below the downtrend from Jan. ‘16 and bearish momentum, would make us move to
UW
EM currencies have weakened since the middle of August as Fed risks have been repriced.
We maintain our view that pressure on EM currencies will resume and continue until we see a more
constructive / fundamental improvement for global growth and commodities supply/demand
imbalances.
We remain UW EM and Commodity FX
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
45. 45
US Dollar
The Dollar continues to be driven by 2-
year rate US vs G10 differential.
The difference between the inflation
picture in US vs Europe and Japan is
also playing for US dollar.
Thus, we maintain our view of more
dollar upside from here.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
46. 46
US Dollar
The DXY is back
close to its 15’ highs,
coming into
significant resistance
near 100
A break above the
previous highs would
open the way towards
103.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
47. 47
EUR-USD
Our first target of 1.07 has been
reached on EUR-USD.
The spot is now testing the
critical support area of 1.07-1.06
We remain UW for the moment.
We will move to Neutral above
1.14, and to OW if the spot
breaks above the 1.15 resistance
(the ceil of the triangle pattern
formed since Mar. ‘15) to target
1.18
Over the medium-term (Q4-2016
and H1-2017), we maintain our
downside projections towards
1.04-parity. For that, we need a
clean break through the strong
support area of 1.06 (the floor of
the triangle pattern).
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
48. 48
USD-JPY
We’ve moved from
Neutral to OW around 104
on Oct. 11, targeting 104.8
and 108 (Please see our
previous reports)
Our target is already
reached and exceeded.
Next levels to watch: 111
and 113
We adjust our positioning
rules on USD-JPY as
follows:
Remain OW above 108
Move to Neutral below
Only a break below the
downtrend from Jan.
‘16 and bearish
momentum, would
make us move to UW
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
49. 49
COMMODITY
We continue to view upward moves since Jan. ‘16 more as technical adjustments than as a
fundamentally-driven ones.
The collapsing cost of many commodities is still driving prices downward
We don’t see any sustainable recovery without a pick-up in global growth or a material
tightening on the supply side. It is likely that supply destruction (due to pull-back in capital
investment) will be the main catalyst for the next sustainable recovery in prices.
We also expect a considerable volatility along the way
We remain UW commodities over 3-6 months
The supply side has adjusted but still has a way to go in many commodities before erasing
current imbalances. In order to get more cuts in supply, we think there needs another leg
down in prices to force capitulation
US dollar strengthening should weigh on prices. Dollar will dictate both direction and velocity
in commos. We expect the stronger dollar to put downward pressure on commodities despite
supportive fundamentals for some of them
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
50. 50
COMMODITY
Bottom Line :
Energy:
Crude oil prices have given back all of their recent gains as cracks appear in the Algerian deal, calling
into question the planned production cuts. OPEC output jumped.
EIA numbers were even more bearish, as they showed a massive build in inventories.
We think that the bottom is in for oil, but we don’t expect a significant rally from here. Any growing
evidence that the downtrend in U.S. crude production is ending, would induce another sharp drop in
prices. Crude prices path will remain bumpy!
$40-$50 per barrel is the range for WTI over the short-term. Only an unexpected exogenous event
could cause oil to break out of it, on one side or the other..
We actually expect the spot to test again the 25-30 area before putting in a permanent rebound. At this
stage, we watch a few key levels ($40, $36, $31, $25). We need to see how the price behaves around
these levels to make our projections.
Our bearish bias is still intact. Only a material break above 52.5 would open scope for a rally.
According to our positioning rules, we turned from Neutral to UW on WTI as the spot broke bellow the
$49.8-$50 area
Our tactical rules are adjusted as follows:
Remain UW below $49.8-$50
Turn Neutral when the triangle formed since June is reintegrated
Move to OW above $52.5 (to target 60 – 65) or below $29 (to play the rebound).
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
51. 51
COMMODITY
Precious Metals:
Outlook for precious metals continues to be dominated by Fed rhetoric, macroeconomic and political
uncertainties and the subsequent impact on US dollar, real yields and sovereign credit.
Our baseline outlook for gold / silver prices has not changed. We are bullish precious metals over the
long-term , no matter what happens (on US dollar, China, growth…)!
From a long-term perspective,we don't think gold has fully from its historical highs. A 4-year correction
doesn’t seem proportional to the previous bear market of 1980-2000.
Thus, we still think that lower lows can be seen before the next bullish phase takes place.
Over the short-term, we expect the precious metal to trade lower over the next months as US dollar
rates go higher. Gold prices could head towards $1,100-1,150 ($12.5 - $13 for silver)
Applying our positioning rules (please have a look to our previous Reports), we remain Neutral on Gold
as long as the spot stays between 1200 and 1300
Our positioning rules remain unchanged:
Remain Neutral between 1200 and 1300
Go OW above 1300, targeting 1380 and even 1430
Turn UW if the spot breaks below 1200 and go OW again below 1070
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
52. 52
COMMODITY
Base Metals: .
The rally in industrial metals was much stronger than anticipated. Our UW positioning has proved
dramatically wrong.
A series of Chinese activity data showed a surprising strength, pulling all the base complex higher.
Copper prices in particular have experienced a strong week (with more than 11%).
We do not think that Trump’s announced fiscal / infrastructure spending would be a fundamental game
changer to industrial metals.
Despite the recent impressive rally, we remain UW on base metals on continuing excess supply, weak
prospects for demand and cost deflation.
We believe that lower prices are still needed to induce more supply adjustments.
From a longer-term point of view, we believe that metals prices are headed for multi-year declines
as the current China-driven super-cycle appears to have peaked
Agriculture:
The technical rebound in grain prices (2-4% in October, despite the fact that we’re entering peak harvest
season) may be partially due to money investors stopping their shorts at the end of 3Q.
Despite more evidence of consumption growth, sizable inventories should keep grain prices in a low
trading range through the winter. Grains prices are, however, nearing a floor
We choose to remain Neutral on Agris, as we have no conviction at this stage and given big
uncertainties around forecasts for 2016-17
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
53. 53
Gold – Vs Dollar and USTs
At end-October, the comparison between gold and 30yr T-bonds divided by the dollar was
showing a short-term divergence
Given the move in UST yields and US dollar, closing the gap would clearly need a gold
retracement.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
54. 54
Gold – Tech. Perspective
Applying our positioning rules
(please have a look to our
previous Reports), we remain
Neutral on Gold as long as the
spot stays between 1210 and
1300
Our positioning rules remain
unchanged:
Remain Neutral between
1200 and 1300
Go OW above 1300,
targeting 1380 and even
1430
Turn UW if the spot breaks
below 1200 and go OW
again below 1070
The next level to watch is
1203. We may see a base
forming there. But a break
through would open the way to
another leg down (target ~1100
– 1150).
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
55. 55
Gold – Vs Silver
The Gold-to-Silver ratio reached
its highs in Feb. ‘16. Since then,
it has receded and broken from
the primary uptrend from the
Nov. ‘12 lows
Technically, the ratio seems
ready for another impulsive
decline in Silver’s favor
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
56. 56
Crude – Tech. Perspective
According to our positioning
rules, we’ve turned from
Neutral to UW on WTI as the
spot broke below $49.8-$50
Next level to watch: 42.60.
Breaching this level would
increase the likelihood of a
move lower towards $40.0
Our tactical rules are adjusted
as follows:
Remain UW below
$49.8-$50
Turn Neutral when the
triangle formed since
June is reintegrated
Move to OW above
$52.5 (to target 60 – 65)
or below $29 (to play the
rebound).
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
57. 57
Copper – Tech. Perspective
In our previous report, we said:
“… from a technical perspective,
we think the metal will soon find
a near-term support around
4620 (the floor of the current
triangle pattern). We switch to
Neutral with a bullish bias, for
now. We’ll move to OW if the
spot breaks up (above 4950,
target ~5400 where we’ll move
massively UW) and to UW again
if it breaks down (below 4620)”
The move on Copper was
impulsive.
As stated above, we’ve moved
to OW as the spot broke above
4950, reached our target of 5400
and moved to UW again
Next important levels to watch :
5330 and 5950!
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
58. Bottom Line: Global Asset Allocation
The passing of the US election has taken a key event risk off the table.
But markets continue to digest the implications of Mr Trumps surprise
victory.
Trump’s victory has triggered a global sell-off in equities, credit and oil,
and a jump in volatility. All these moves have been short lived and
reversed the day after.
Market optimism was driven by the prospect of large fiscal stimulus,
infrastructure spending and a Republican control of both Houses. No
one seems warried anymore about the downside risk from an escalation
in protectionism and global populist backlash.
On the surface, the global economy is getting better. But, investors
should avoid complacency in such an uncertain environment
Our focus is 3Q earnings season, rising wages and their impact on
margins, expected inflation and volatile volatility.
Earnings had already been on an improving trend, with a number of key
sectors showing a dramatic turnaround. Expected inflation is ticking up.
Global bond yields too.
Not much has changed in our expectations, except for Govies and
energy.
We summarize our views as follows
58
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59. 59
Disclaimer
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an
offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any
securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services
by FinLight Research in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation,
purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such
jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be
construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter.
FinLight Research expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions
taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.
60. About Us…
FinLight Research is a research-centric company focused on Asset Allocation from a top-down
perspective, on Portfolio Construction, and all related quantitative aspects and risk management issues.
Our expertise expands along 3 axes:
Asset Allocation with risk control and/or risk budgeting techniques
Allocation to alternative investments : Hedge funds, rule-based strategies (momentum, value,
carry, volatility), real assets (real estate, infrastructure, farmland, timberland and natural resources).
Private equity and venture capital should be the next step…
Allocation with a factorial approach built on the understanding (profiling) of the risk/return drivers of
the different asset classes
FinLight Research is an innovation-oriented company. We target to fill the gap between the
academic research and the investment community, especially on real assets and alternatives. We survey
on a continuous basis the academic literature for interesting published and working papers related to
quantitative investing, non-linear profiling, asset allocation, real assets...
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61. Our Standard Offer
Provide tailor-
made quantitative
analysis of your
portfolios in terms
of asset allocation,
risk profiling and
risk contribution
Provide tailor-
made quantitative
analysis of your
portfolios in terms
of asset allocation,
risk profiling and
risk contribution
•Risk Profiling
Offer a turnkey 3-
step factor-based
process in GAA
with factor
selection, risk
budgeting and
dynamic portfolio
protection
Offer a turnkey 3-
step factor-based
process in GAA
with factor
selection, risk
budgeting and
dynamic portfolio
protection
•Factor-based GAA Process
Provide assistance
with alternative
investments
(including real
assets) in terms of
profiling, and
integration in a
GAA
Provide assistance
with alternative
investments
(including real
assets) in terms of
profiling, and
integration in a
GAA
•Alternative Investments
Provide assistance
with asset
allocation and
related risk control
and/or risk
budgeting
techniques
Provide assistance
with asset
allocation and
related risk control
and/or risk
budgeting
techniques
•Global Asset Allocation
(GAA)
61
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