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Living Popups
P o w e r e d B y
An AREnabled Guide to VR& AR
Edited by Robert Fine
Founder of Second Life
Foreword by Philip Rosedale
Charlie Fink's
35 Years of Disruption
• Audio cassettes
• Video cassettes
• Personal Computers
• The Internet
• Mobile Phones
• Smart Phones
• Tablets
• Wearables
About me
• Disney 85 - 1992
• Virtual World Ent (LBVR) 92 - 96
• AOL 96 - 99
• AG Interactive 00-05
• 2 for 4 on start ups (05 – 15)
• Produced 30 Broadway musicals (04-17)
• Columnist, Forbes.com
• Author, Metaverse
• Contributing Editor, VR Voice
Things I Know Are True
• Tech succeeds when it makes what we are already
doing better
• People are the killer app
• Everyone overestimates the near term, and
underestimates the long term
3 Things My Book Taught Me
• The World Will Be Painted With Data
• Reality for virtual reality may take a while
• The Greatest Business Story of Our Time
• The Stakes
• The Players
• Conflict = drama
A World Painted With Data
• AI, IA, IoT, AR Merge
• Computer Vision
• Universal Visual Browser (UVB)
• The AR Cloud
• Optics, FOV
• Form Factors
• Wireless Bandwidth
VR
AR
MR
XR
HMD
FOV
LBE
ARKit
ARCore
UVB
AI
SLAM
The Milgram Scale 1994*
* Paul Milgram and Fumio Kishino, A Taxonomy of Virtual Displays 1994
Microsoft Mixed Reality Spectrum
Windows Mixed Reality – Holographic headsets (see-through)
Windows Mixed Reality – Immersive headsets (occluded)
VR todayAR today
PHYSICAL
REALITY
DIGITAL
REALITY
MIXED REALITY (MR)
Mixed reality blends the physical and digital worlds to produce new environments where physical and digital objects co-
exist and can be interacted with as if all of them were real.
VR = Man’s Quest for Immersion
AR = A New Tool for Man
The “Old” Definition of MR
AR Covers The Entire MR Spectrum
•Enhanced 3D Handheld
• Depth sensing
• SLAM
•Heads Up Display
•Microdisplays
•Computer Vision
• Wearable, mobile, contextual
VR & AR in Pop Culture
VR in Pop Culture
Augmented Reality in Popular Culture
HUD, Object Recognition, AI
Heads Up Display From Honda
Telepresence (Holoportation)
Microsoft Holoportation Experiment
DOD Classified: Who Is The Hologram?
AR Is Already A TV Star
Pokemon Go
In Mobile AR, The Camera Is The Interface
Time Shifting Between Screens Is A Problem
AR Makes HMDs Inevitable
It’s Raining Interim Deivces
Disney Star Wars AR Zapbox Cardboard AR Mira Prism
Available AR HMDs
• HoloLens - $3,000 (developer edition)
• ODG R-8 – Under $1,000 via Megu (China)
• Meta 2 – $1,000 (developer edition)
• Kopin SOLOS - $499
• Lenovo/Star Wars - $200
• Mira Prism - $100
• Zapbox Cardboard - $50
The Microdisplay Revolution
Don’t Bet Against Video
The Real Competition Begins in 2019
• Snapchat Specs 2.0
• Facebook “Pacific”
• Apple
• Magic Leap
Wearable, Contextual Computer Vision
• UVB Sees World As Data
• Contextually Aware
• Voice, gesture, mouse
• SLAM
• Persistent Geolocation
• Mixed Reality
• Inside Out Hand Tracking
State of AR Today
• AR Capable Hand Held Computing
• ARKit & ARCore
• Facial Recognition, Depth Sensing
• Experiential Marketing
• Filters
• Art
• Toys
• Games
• Microsoft – HoloLens, Windows 10 MR
• Apple – ARKit, VR Peripheral
• Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store, “Pacific” AR HMD
• Google – Glass, Cardboard, Daydream, ARCore
• Amazon - Sumerian
• Samsung –Gear VR
• Sony - PlayStation VR
The Big Guys Are Making Big Bets
Today, The Cash Is In Our Hands
• Personal Computer
• Email
• Shopping
• Search
• Social Media
• Smart Phones Add
• Messaging
• Camera
• Maps
• Music/Media
Killer Apps
•Telepresence (all forms)
•Remote Experts
•Volumetric Presence
•SLAM (to 10” inches)
•Persistent Data Location
•Directions
•UVB, Data Detection & Filtering
•Education, Translation, Language
Learning
•Videos, Sports
AR’s (Probable) Killer Apps*
Enterprise Goes First
• Military
• Building Design & Construction
• Industrial Maintenance
• Remote Experts
• Medical
• Monitor Consolidation
• Heads Up Display
• Sales & Marketing
The VR Story Is Simpler
VR’s (Probable) Killer Apps
•Simulation & Training
•Clinical Medicine
•3D Design & Manufacturing
•Entertainment & Games
•Social
Enterprise VR Grows
Home Consumer PC VR Has Hit A Wall
• The First Adopters Have Adopted
• PC VR, Vive, HTC and Windows MR
• Gaming computer
• PSVR, Console VR
• Google Daydream
VR’s Growth Areas
•Enterprise, Medicine, Training
•LBVR, A New Movie Business
•LBAR, The Sports Opportunity
•VRcades = Internet Cafes
The Standalone Revolution
The Black Box of China
•Manufacturing  Digital Goods & Services
•Education Infrastructure
•STEM Grads
•University R & D
•State Venture Activities
VR (&AR) For Good
• VR Makes Things Better
•Training
•Medicine
•Mental Health
•Education
• Meetings, Conferences
•Making The World Smaller
Tech For Bad
• Facebook – The new tribalism
• The Balkanization of America
• Loss of American leadership
• Uneven distribution of tech benefits
• Jobs Vaporized
• Privacy
• The Surveillance State
Predictions for March, 2019
• Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point
• VR  Standalones & Mobile
• AR  Micro Optic Displays
• Phone Replacement Cycle Accelerates
• More, Better mobile AR
• Enterprise adoption accelerates
• Magic Leap To Make More Announcements
Predictions for June, 2023
• Wearable computing, MR commonplace
• Telepresence is real
• Killer VR app is cinematic social world based on
major IP like Star Wars
• Self-driving trucks, cars, common
• Automation & AI growth increase unemployment
• Wealth Gap at dangerous, historic levels
@CharlieFink

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Fink Metaverse SXSW Presentation 3.12.18

  • 1. Living Popups P o w e r e d B y An AREnabled Guide to VR& AR Edited by Robert Fine Founder of Second Life Foreword by Philip Rosedale Charlie Fink's
  • 2. 35 Years of Disruption • Audio cassettes • Video cassettes • Personal Computers • The Internet • Mobile Phones • Smart Phones • Tablets • Wearables
  • 3. About me • Disney 85 - 1992 • Virtual World Ent (LBVR) 92 - 96 • AOL 96 - 99 • AG Interactive 00-05 • 2 for 4 on start ups (05 – 15) • Produced 30 Broadway musicals (04-17) • Columnist, Forbes.com • Author, Metaverse • Contributing Editor, VR Voice
  • 4. Things I Know Are True • Tech succeeds when it makes what we are already doing better • People are the killer app • Everyone overestimates the near term, and underestimates the long term
  • 5.
  • 6. 3 Things My Book Taught Me • The World Will Be Painted With Data • Reality for virtual reality may take a while • The Greatest Business Story of Our Time • The Stakes • The Players • Conflict = drama
  • 7. A World Painted With Data • AI, IA, IoT, AR Merge • Computer Vision • Universal Visual Browser (UVB) • The AR Cloud • Optics, FOV • Form Factors • Wireless Bandwidth
  • 9.
  • 10. The Milgram Scale 1994* * Paul Milgram and Fumio Kishino, A Taxonomy of Virtual Displays 1994
  • 11. Microsoft Mixed Reality Spectrum Windows Mixed Reality – Holographic headsets (see-through) Windows Mixed Reality – Immersive headsets (occluded) VR todayAR today PHYSICAL REALITY DIGITAL REALITY MIXED REALITY (MR) Mixed reality blends the physical and digital worlds to produce new environments where physical and digital objects co- exist and can be interacted with as if all of them were real.
  • 12. VR = Man’s Quest for Immersion AR = A New Tool for Man
  • 14. AR Covers The Entire MR Spectrum •Enhanced 3D Handheld • Depth sensing • SLAM •Heads Up Display •Microdisplays •Computer Vision • Wearable, mobile, contextual
  • 15. VR & AR in Pop Culture
  • 16. VR in Pop Culture
  • 17. Augmented Reality in Popular Culture
  • 19. Heads Up Display From Honda
  • 22. DOD Classified: Who Is The Hologram?
  • 23. AR Is Already A TV Star
  • 25. In Mobile AR, The Camera Is The Interface
  • 26. Time Shifting Between Screens Is A Problem
  • 27. AR Makes HMDs Inevitable
  • 28. It’s Raining Interim Deivces Disney Star Wars AR Zapbox Cardboard AR Mira Prism
  • 29. Available AR HMDs • HoloLens - $3,000 (developer edition) • ODG R-8 – Under $1,000 via Megu (China) • Meta 2 – $1,000 (developer edition) • Kopin SOLOS - $499 • Lenovo/Star Wars - $200 • Mira Prism - $100 • Zapbox Cardboard - $50
  • 31. The Real Competition Begins in 2019 • Snapchat Specs 2.0 • Facebook “Pacific” • Apple • Magic Leap
  • 32. Wearable, Contextual Computer Vision • UVB Sees World As Data • Contextually Aware • Voice, gesture, mouse • SLAM • Persistent Geolocation • Mixed Reality • Inside Out Hand Tracking
  • 33. State of AR Today • AR Capable Hand Held Computing • ARKit & ARCore • Facial Recognition, Depth Sensing • Experiential Marketing • Filters • Art • Toys • Games
  • 34. • Microsoft – HoloLens, Windows 10 MR • Apple – ARKit, VR Peripheral • Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store, “Pacific” AR HMD • Google – Glass, Cardboard, Daydream, ARCore • Amazon - Sumerian • Samsung –Gear VR • Sony - PlayStation VR The Big Guys Are Making Big Bets
  • 35.
  • 36. Today, The Cash Is In Our Hands
  • 37. • Personal Computer • Email • Shopping • Search • Social Media • Smart Phones Add • Messaging • Camera • Maps • Music/Media Killer Apps
  • 38. •Telepresence (all forms) •Remote Experts •Volumetric Presence •SLAM (to 10” inches) •Persistent Data Location •Directions •UVB, Data Detection & Filtering •Education, Translation, Language Learning •Videos, Sports AR’s (Probable) Killer Apps*
  • 39. Enterprise Goes First • Military • Building Design & Construction • Industrial Maintenance • Remote Experts • Medical • Monitor Consolidation • Heads Up Display • Sales & Marketing
  • 40. The VR Story Is Simpler
  • 41. VR’s (Probable) Killer Apps •Simulation & Training •Clinical Medicine •3D Design & Manufacturing •Entertainment & Games •Social
  • 42. Enterprise VR Grows Home Consumer PC VR Has Hit A Wall • The First Adopters Have Adopted • PC VR, Vive, HTC and Windows MR • Gaming computer • PSVR, Console VR • Google Daydream
  • 43. VR’s Growth Areas •Enterprise, Medicine, Training •LBVR, A New Movie Business •LBAR, The Sports Opportunity •VRcades = Internet Cafes
  • 45. The Black Box of China •Manufacturing  Digital Goods & Services •Education Infrastructure •STEM Grads •University R & D •State Venture Activities
  • 46. VR (&AR) For Good • VR Makes Things Better •Training •Medicine •Mental Health •Education • Meetings, Conferences •Making The World Smaller
  • 47. Tech For Bad • Facebook – The new tribalism • The Balkanization of America • Loss of American leadership • Uneven distribution of tech benefits • Jobs Vaporized • Privacy • The Surveillance State
  • 48. Predictions for March, 2019 • Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point • VR  Standalones & Mobile • AR  Micro Optic Displays • Phone Replacement Cycle Accelerates • More, Better mobile AR • Enterprise adoption accelerates • Magic Leap To Make More Announcements
  • 49. Predictions for June, 2023 • Wearable computing, MR commonplace • Telepresence is real • Killer VR app is cinematic social world based on major IP like Star Wars • Self-driving trucks, cars, common • Automation & AI growth increase unemployment • Wealth Gap at dangerous, historic levels

Editor's Notes

  1. Telepresence with fidelity
  2. Teeny Tiny, first adopters If I had to buy one today, I’d get the Meta.
  3. It’s all about what the guys at the top of the pyramid do – Tim Merel And they big guys are doing a lot. They are all investing billions. Note all are headworn, some AR, some VR