Investment outlook piece describing the Feed the World Theme. This will help to provide you with some insight in how to invest to take advantage of forth coming trends.
The document discusses the challenges of sustainably feeding a growing global population. It examines key historical drivers like population growth, income growth, and technological progress in reproducing changes in crop yields, prices, production, and land use from 1961-2006. Population growth was the dominant demand driver historically but is slowing, while income growth will increasingly impact demand. Productivity growth through technology and adaptation like trade and agricultural R&D investments will be critical to meeting future needs given uncertainty around population, income growth, and climate impacts. International trade can help moderate price impacts across regions from events like severe climate change.
By 2050 the world’s population will reach 9.1 billion, 34 percent higher than today. Nearly all of this population increase will occur in developing countries. Urbanization will continue at an accelerated pace, and about 70 percent of the world’s population will be urban (compared to 49 percent today). Income levels will be many multiples of what they are now. In order to feed this larger, more urban and richer population, food production (net of food used for biofuels) must increase by 70 percent.
Annual cereal production will need to rise to about 3 billion tonnes from 2.1 billion today and annual meat production will need to rise by over 200 million tonnes to reach 470 million tonnes. This report argues that the required increase in food production can be achieved if the necessary investment is undertaken and policies conducive to agricultural production are put in place.
But increasing production is not sufficient to achieve food security. It must be complemented by policies to enhance access by fighting poverty, especially in rural areas, as well as effective safety net programmes. Total average annual net investment in developing country agriculture required to deliver the necessary production increases would amount to USD 83 billion. The global gap in what is required vis-à-vis current investment levels can be illustrated by comparing the required annual gross investment of US$209 billion (which includes the cost of renewing depreciating investments) with the result of a separate study that estimated that developing countries on average invested USD 142 billion (USD of 2009) annually in agriculture over the past decade.
The required increase is thus about 50 percent. These figures are totals for public and private investment, i.e. investments by farmers. Achieving them will require a major reallocation in developing country budgets as well as in donor programmes. It will also require policies that support farmers in developing countries and encourage them and other private participants in agriculture to increase their investment. In developing countries, 80 percent of the necessary production increases would come from increases in yields and cropping intensity and only 20 percent from expansion of arable land.
But the fact is that globally the rate of growth in yields of the major cereal crops has been steadily declining, it dropped from 3.2 percent per year in 1960 to 1.5 percent in 2000. The challenge for technology is to reverse this decline, since a continuous linear increase in yields at a global level following the pattern established over the past five decades will not be sufficient to meet food needs. Although investment in agricultural R&D continues to be one of the most productive investments, with rates of return between 30 and 75 percent, it has been neglected in most low income countries.
HLM2 Nairobi Side Events - ShambaPlus Concept NoteKelvin Wahome
Shambaplus aims to enhance technology in agriculture and industry for food security and national growth. By 2050, food production will need to increase by 70% to feed a global population of over 9 billion people. Smallholder farms currently produce 70% of the world's food, so supporting smallholder farmers through access to information, resources, and markets will be key to achieving this increased production. Shambaplus proposes using ICT technologies like data analysis and forecasting to advise farmers on the best crops to grow based on weather predictions, market prices, and their farm conditions in order to realize food security and economic growth.
as part of the IFPRI-Egypt Seminar Series- funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.
This document summarizes key issues related to agrarian change and rural development. It discusses increasing demand for healthier diets in developing countries and the need for more inclusive and value-added agricultural value chains. It also examines farming systems and the need to balance efficiency and sustainability. Specific topics covered include changing diets, the bifurcation of farm structures into larger commercial and smaller subsistence operations, and the "missing middle" of rural support services. The document then discusses strategies for inclusive rural development through innovation, intensification and supply chain integration. It identifies knowledge gaps around data availability and impact evaluations and outlines an outlook focused on improving rural productivity and value chains.
Bo agriculture restructuring (ciat meeting 20-feb2014-hn)CIAT
Vietnam's agriculture sector faces both opportunities and challenges when compared to other ASEAN countries. While Vietnam has a large agricultural workforce and land area devoted to agriculture, its agricultural productivity and GDP per capita from agriculture are relatively low. Climate change also poses a serious threat through impacts like sea level rise, increased temperatures, and more frequent extreme weather events. To address these issues, Vietnam's priorities include improving food security and safety, developing human resources, protecting the environment, and restructuring agricultural production towards higher-value and more processed crops and livestock. The government has set targets for stronger agricultural growth, higher farmer incomes, and reduced poverty and GHG emissions by 2020.
The future of food and agriculture: Trends and challengesFAO
Description: the presentation features main findings and highlights of the report “The future of food and agriculture: Trends and challenges”. The report sheds some light on the nature of the challenges that agriculture and food systems are facing now and throughout the 21st century. It provides some insights as to what is at stake and what needs to be done.
http://www.fao.org/3/a-i6583e.pdf
The document discusses the challenges of sustainably feeding a growing global population. It examines key historical drivers like population growth, income growth, and technological progress in reproducing changes in crop yields, prices, production, and land use from 1961-2006. Population growth was the dominant demand driver historically but is slowing, while income growth will increasingly impact demand. Productivity growth through technology and adaptation like trade and agricultural R&D investments will be critical to meeting future needs given uncertainty around population, income growth, and climate impacts. International trade can help moderate price impacts across regions from events like severe climate change.
By 2050 the world’s population will reach 9.1 billion, 34 percent higher than today. Nearly all of this population increase will occur in developing countries. Urbanization will continue at an accelerated pace, and about 70 percent of the world’s population will be urban (compared to 49 percent today). Income levels will be many multiples of what they are now. In order to feed this larger, more urban and richer population, food production (net of food used for biofuels) must increase by 70 percent.
Annual cereal production will need to rise to about 3 billion tonnes from 2.1 billion today and annual meat production will need to rise by over 200 million tonnes to reach 470 million tonnes. This report argues that the required increase in food production can be achieved if the necessary investment is undertaken and policies conducive to agricultural production are put in place.
But increasing production is not sufficient to achieve food security. It must be complemented by policies to enhance access by fighting poverty, especially in rural areas, as well as effective safety net programmes. Total average annual net investment in developing country agriculture required to deliver the necessary production increases would amount to USD 83 billion. The global gap in what is required vis-à-vis current investment levels can be illustrated by comparing the required annual gross investment of US$209 billion (which includes the cost of renewing depreciating investments) with the result of a separate study that estimated that developing countries on average invested USD 142 billion (USD of 2009) annually in agriculture over the past decade.
The required increase is thus about 50 percent. These figures are totals for public and private investment, i.e. investments by farmers. Achieving them will require a major reallocation in developing country budgets as well as in donor programmes. It will also require policies that support farmers in developing countries and encourage them and other private participants in agriculture to increase their investment. In developing countries, 80 percent of the necessary production increases would come from increases in yields and cropping intensity and only 20 percent from expansion of arable land.
But the fact is that globally the rate of growth in yields of the major cereal crops has been steadily declining, it dropped from 3.2 percent per year in 1960 to 1.5 percent in 2000. The challenge for technology is to reverse this decline, since a continuous linear increase in yields at a global level following the pattern established over the past five decades will not be sufficient to meet food needs. Although investment in agricultural R&D continues to be one of the most productive investments, with rates of return between 30 and 75 percent, it has been neglected in most low income countries.
HLM2 Nairobi Side Events - ShambaPlus Concept NoteKelvin Wahome
Shambaplus aims to enhance technology in agriculture and industry for food security and national growth. By 2050, food production will need to increase by 70% to feed a global population of over 9 billion people. Smallholder farms currently produce 70% of the world's food, so supporting smallholder farmers through access to information, resources, and markets will be key to achieving this increased production. Shambaplus proposes using ICT technologies like data analysis and forecasting to advise farmers on the best crops to grow based on weather predictions, market prices, and their farm conditions in order to realize food security and economic growth.
as part of the IFPRI-Egypt Seminar Series- funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.
This document summarizes key issues related to agrarian change and rural development. It discusses increasing demand for healthier diets in developing countries and the need for more inclusive and value-added agricultural value chains. It also examines farming systems and the need to balance efficiency and sustainability. Specific topics covered include changing diets, the bifurcation of farm structures into larger commercial and smaller subsistence operations, and the "missing middle" of rural support services. The document then discusses strategies for inclusive rural development through innovation, intensification and supply chain integration. It identifies knowledge gaps around data availability and impact evaluations and outlines an outlook focused on improving rural productivity and value chains.
Bo agriculture restructuring (ciat meeting 20-feb2014-hn)CIAT
Vietnam's agriculture sector faces both opportunities and challenges when compared to other ASEAN countries. While Vietnam has a large agricultural workforce and land area devoted to agriculture, its agricultural productivity and GDP per capita from agriculture are relatively low. Climate change also poses a serious threat through impacts like sea level rise, increased temperatures, and more frequent extreme weather events. To address these issues, Vietnam's priorities include improving food security and safety, developing human resources, protecting the environment, and restructuring agricultural production towards higher-value and more processed crops and livestock. The government has set targets for stronger agricultural growth, higher farmer incomes, and reduced poverty and GHG emissions by 2020.
The future of food and agriculture: Trends and challengesFAO
Description: the presentation features main findings and highlights of the report “The future of food and agriculture: Trends and challenges”. The report sheds some light on the nature of the challenges that agriculture and food systems are facing now and throughout the 21st century. It provides some insights as to what is at stake and what needs to be done.
http://www.fao.org/3/a-i6583e.pdf
The document discusses the challenges facing agriculture systems, including rising inequality, water and climate challenges, urbanization, and nutrition imbalance. It notes that irrigation plays a key role in agriculture, producing 40% of global food on only 1/3 of harvested land. While irrigation investment is critical, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, large-scale irrigation faces challenges there. The document argues that farmer-led irrigation using new technologies at lower cost, along with institutional and infrastructure support, could help address food security and other sustainable development goals in the region.
The document discusses the challenges facing agriculture systems, including rising inequality, water and climate challenges, urbanization, and nutrition imbalance. It notes that irrigation plays a key role in agriculture, producing 40% of global food on only 1/3 of harvested land. While irrigation investment is critical, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, large-scale irrigation faces challenges there. The document argues that promoting farmer-led irrigation, technological innovations, institutional innovations, and supporting infrastructure can help address food security issues and support sustainable development goals.
The document provides an overview of the 2018 Global Food Policy Report (GFPR). It summarizes several sections and key findings from the report. The sections discussed include global food security trends, the impacts of trade, investment, migration, knowledge and data, developed country policies, and regional developments. For each area, the document extracts highlights and recommendations from the GFPR.
“Dynamics of gender equity and household food security in rice-based farming systems” presented by Kamala Gurung, IRRI-Bangladesh at the ReSAKSS-Asia Conference, Nov 14-16, 2011, in Kathmandu, Nepal.
Presented by IFPRI Senior Research Fellow Claudia Ringler at the Foresight Workshop on "Policy Research on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in the Eastern Gangetic Plain", Sep 7, 2016, Delhi.
The document summarizes Egypt's food and beverage sector. It outlines that the sector accounts for 4.7% of Egypt's GDP and has grown at a compound annual rate of 15% from 2011 to 2016. The sector is expected to continue strong growth in exports and value added products. Regulations and standards are overseen by agencies such as the National Food Safety Agency and Industrial Development Authority, while the Chamber of Food Industries and Food Export Council represent industry interests. The document also examines economic trends in Egypt and the country's vision to become one of the top 20 economies by 2030 through continued reforms and development.
Ms. Deborah Perkins - Financial Impact of Tomorrow's Trends on Animal Agricul...John Blue
This document discusses the impact of emerging technologies on the animal agriculture industry from a financier's perspective. It notes that population growth, income growth, and urbanization are increasing global demand for food by over 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. However, agricultural productivity growth is declining while arable land is limited. New technologies that can increase yields and production efficiency in a sustainable way will be necessary to meet rising demand. Factors like access to innovation, sufficient scale of adoption, dedicated supply chains, and technologies that improve profitability will influence which technologies are commercially viable. The implications for financiers include needing to identify commercially successful technologies, anticipating increased capital and working capital needs from adoption, and managing risks that emerge
Strategic Options for agriculture and development in Malawi by Andrew DorwardIFPRIMaSSP
This paper considers potential strategic options for agriculture and development in Malawi in the context of the country’s current situation and the prospects the country faces. After briefly reviewing current national and sectoral policy and potential roles of agriculture in economic growth, we set out the current situation in order to consider strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
We conclude that a major emphasis is needed on supporting changes that reduce the rate of population growth and promote capacity for adaptation and resilience to climate change. Rapid increases in the productivity of agricultural land and labor and rural incomes will be critical to this (alongside increased education and empowerment of girls and women). There are, however, difficult potential trade-offs to negotiate (for example between increased irrigation and reduced inflows into Lake Malawi) and these need further consideration.
From this analysis we derive a set of nine strategic principles and two operational principles that we suggest could helpfully stimulate and guide strategy development that addresses the opportunities and threats facing Malawian agriculture. The application of these principles is illustrated by indicative consideration of policy and investment options focusing on development of different commodities and (broadly defined) resources. Consistent implementation of coordinated and consistent sectoral and inter-sectoral policies is critical for achievement of the desired growth and diversification impacts.
Channing Arndt
COUNTRY WORKSHOP
The Knowledge Lab on Climate Resilient Food Systems: An analytical support facility to achieve the SDGs
Co-Organized by IFPRI and AGRA
FEB 7, 2019 - 08:30 AM TO 05:55 PM EAT
This document outlines the methodology for assessing seed system programs against the One CGIAR Theory of Change. It describes a 5-step process for program managers and colleagues to assess: 1) the characteristics of the seed system and case boundaries, 2) activities and importance of action areas, 3) impact areas, targets, and indicators and contributions, 4) importance of innovation pathways, and 5) observations. Key aspects include scoring relative importance and contributions across action areas, impact areas, indicators, and innovation pathways. Progress and spheres of control, influence, and interest are also scored for innovation and capacity development examples. The assessment aims to evaluate programs' alignment with CGIAR's Theory of Change.
This document outlines problems with the current agricultural model and opportunities in food and agriculture investing. The current model relies on monocultures that reduce biodiversity and soil and water are being consumed unsustainably. Several subsectors in food and agriculture tech are highlighted as areas for investment, including alternative proteins, smart equipment, decision support tools, drones and robotics, and waste reduction. Examples are given of startups like Ripple Foods, Amber Agriculture, and Granular that are demonstrating proof of concepts in these subsectors. The size of the agriculture industry and need for sustainability presents a large opportunity for technology to address problems with the current system.
Malthus is still Wrong - we can feed a world of 9 billionPrabhu Pingali
Malthus is still wrong - we can feed a world of 9 billion. Plenary presentation to the Asian society of Agricultural Economists. Hanoi, Vietnam, October 13th, 2011.
Jobs and Ethiopia’s agri-food system: Reviewing the evidenceessp2
This document reviews evidence on jobs and Ethiopia's agri-food system. It finds that agriculture remains extremely important for employment in Ethiopia, accounting for over 75% of jobs, though this share is declining slowly. Labor productivity in agriculture is increasing over time but remains low, with larger, more commercial farms showing higher productivity. Hired agricultural wage labor constitutes a small share of total agricultural labor. Wages are increasing in rural areas but remain low internationally. Food processing, trade, and transportation make up sizable shares of non-farm employment in Ethiopia's agri-food system.
Optimizing livelihood and environmental benefits from crop residues in smallh...ILRI
Presentation by Sabine Homann-Kee Tui and Andre van Rooyen for the SLP Crop Residues Project Review and Planning Meeting, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9-10 December 2010.
Feeding Nigeria's current and future population is a critical challenge. This challenge necessitates the adoption and application of innovations to agriculture so as to make the sector more competitive and sustainable. Boosting economic growth in agriculture is a function of three factors: farmland expansion, yield growth and reduction in post-harvest losses.
Cades lecture november 2013: agriculture, food & globalisationchris claes
Smallholder farming and its contribution to saving the world.
The document discusses the importance of smallholder farming in addressing issues related to global food security and poverty reduction. It notes that smallholder farmers currently produce most of the world's food but many live in poverty and face challenges from factors like climate change, competition for resources, and market pressures. Investing in smallholder farming could help feed the growing global population, reduce rural poverty, and lessen environmental impacts compared to industrial agriculture models. The world will need to support smallholder systems if it wants to achieve food security and sustainability goals by 2050.
1. Agriculture and Ethiopia's agri-food system are extremely important for employment in Ethiopia, accounting for over 80% of total employment. While the share of agriculture in employment is declining slowly, it remains much larger than agriculture's share of GDP.
2. On-farm productivity has been increasing over time but remains low. Larger, more commercial farms are becoming more important but make up only a small percentage of total agricultural area. Labor productivity is significantly higher on larger farms and in more connected areas. Agricultural labor markets differ by remoteness, with more monetized labor in less remote areas.
3. Ethiopia's food processing, trade, and transport sectors have been growing rapidly, providing increasing
Dr. Douglas Southgate - More than Nine Billion to Feed in 2050John Blue
More than Nine Billion to Feed in 2050 - Dr. Douglas Southgate, Professor Emeritus, The Ohio State University, from the 2017 NIAA Annual Conference, U.S. Animal Agriculture's Future Role In World Food Production - Obstacles & Opportunities, April 4 - 6, Columbus, OH, USA.
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2017_niaa_us_animal_ag_future_role_world_food_production
The document discusses the challenges facing agriculture systems, including rising inequality, water and climate challenges, urbanization, and nutrition imbalance. It notes that irrigation plays a key role in agriculture, producing 40% of global food on only 1/3 of harvested land. While irrigation investment is critical, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, large-scale irrigation faces challenges there. The document argues that farmer-led irrigation using new technologies at lower cost, along with institutional and infrastructure support, could help address food security and other sustainable development goals in the region.
The document discusses the challenges facing agriculture systems, including rising inequality, water and climate challenges, urbanization, and nutrition imbalance. It notes that irrigation plays a key role in agriculture, producing 40% of global food on only 1/3 of harvested land. While irrigation investment is critical, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, large-scale irrigation faces challenges there. The document argues that promoting farmer-led irrigation, technological innovations, institutional innovations, and supporting infrastructure can help address food security issues and support sustainable development goals.
The document provides an overview of the 2018 Global Food Policy Report (GFPR). It summarizes several sections and key findings from the report. The sections discussed include global food security trends, the impacts of trade, investment, migration, knowledge and data, developed country policies, and regional developments. For each area, the document extracts highlights and recommendations from the GFPR.
“Dynamics of gender equity and household food security in rice-based farming systems” presented by Kamala Gurung, IRRI-Bangladesh at the ReSAKSS-Asia Conference, Nov 14-16, 2011, in Kathmandu, Nepal.
Presented by IFPRI Senior Research Fellow Claudia Ringler at the Foresight Workshop on "Policy Research on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus in the Eastern Gangetic Plain", Sep 7, 2016, Delhi.
The document summarizes Egypt's food and beverage sector. It outlines that the sector accounts for 4.7% of Egypt's GDP and has grown at a compound annual rate of 15% from 2011 to 2016. The sector is expected to continue strong growth in exports and value added products. Regulations and standards are overseen by agencies such as the National Food Safety Agency and Industrial Development Authority, while the Chamber of Food Industries and Food Export Council represent industry interests. The document also examines economic trends in Egypt and the country's vision to become one of the top 20 economies by 2030 through continued reforms and development.
Ms. Deborah Perkins - Financial Impact of Tomorrow's Trends on Animal Agricul...John Blue
This document discusses the impact of emerging technologies on the animal agriculture industry from a financier's perspective. It notes that population growth, income growth, and urbanization are increasing global demand for food by over 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. However, agricultural productivity growth is declining while arable land is limited. New technologies that can increase yields and production efficiency in a sustainable way will be necessary to meet rising demand. Factors like access to innovation, sufficient scale of adoption, dedicated supply chains, and technologies that improve profitability will influence which technologies are commercially viable. The implications for financiers include needing to identify commercially successful technologies, anticipating increased capital and working capital needs from adoption, and managing risks that emerge
Strategic Options for agriculture and development in Malawi by Andrew DorwardIFPRIMaSSP
This paper considers potential strategic options for agriculture and development in Malawi in the context of the country’s current situation and the prospects the country faces. After briefly reviewing current national and sectoral policy and potential roles of agriculture in economic growth, we set out the current situation in order to consider strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
We conclude that a major emphasis is needed on supporting changes that reduce the rate of population growth and promote capacity for adaptation and resilience to climate change. Rapid increases in the productivity of agricultural land and labor and rural incomes will be critical to this (alongside increased education and empowerment of girls and women). There are, however, difficult potential trade-offs to negotiate (for example between increased irrigation and reduced inflows into Lake Malawi) and these need further consideration.
From this analysis we derive a set of nine strategic principles and two operational principles that we suggest could helpfully stimulate and guide strategy development that addresses the opportunities and threats facing Malawian agriculture. The application of these principles is illustrated by indicative consideration of policy and investment options focusing on development of different commodities and (broadly defined) resources. Consistent implementation of coordinated and consistent sectoral and inter-sectoral policies is critical for achievement of the desired growth and diversification impacts.
Channing Arndt
COUNTRY WORKSHOP
The Knowledge Lab on Climate Resilient Food Systems: An analytical support facility to achieve the SDGs
Co-Organized by IFPRI and AGRA
FEB 7, 2019 - 08:30 AM TO 05:55 PM EAT
This document outlines the methodology for assessing seed system programs against the One CGIAR Theory of Change. It describes a 5-step process for program managers and colleagues to assess: 1) the characteristics of the seed system and case boundaries, 2) activities and importance of action areas, 3) impact areas, targets, and indicators and contributions, 4) importance of innovation pathways, and 5) observations. Key aspects include scoring relative importance and contributions across action areas, impact areas, indicators, and innovation pathways. Progress and spheres of control, influence, and interest are also scored for innovation and capacity development examples. The assessment aims to evaluate programs' alignment with CGIAR's Theory of Change.
This document outlines problems with the current agricultural model and opportunities in food and agriculture investing. The current model relies on monocultures that reduce biodiversity and soil and water are being consumed unsustainably. Several subsectors in food and agriculture tech are highlighted as areas for investment, including alternative proteins, smart equipment, decision support tools, drones and robotics, and waste reduction. Examples are given of startups like Ripple Foods, Amber Agriculture, and Granular that are demonstrating proof of concepts in these subsectors. The size of the agriculture industry and need for sustainability presents a large opportunity for technology to address problems with the current system.
Malthus is still Wrong - we can feed a world of 9 billionPrabhu Pingali
Malthus is still wrong - we can feed a world of 9 billion. Plenary presentation to the Asian society of Agricultural Economists. Hanoi, Vietnam, October 13th, 2011.
Jobs and Ethiopia’s agri-food system: Reviewing the evidenceessp2
This document reviews evidence on jobs and Ethiopia's agri-food system. It finds that agriculture remains extremely important for employment in Ethiopia, accounting for over 75% of jobs, though this share is declining slowly. Labor productivity in agriculture is increasing over time but remains low, with larger, more commercial farms showing higher productivity. Hired agricultural wage labor constitutes a small share of total agricultural labor. Wages are increasing in rural areas but remain low internationally. Food processing, trade, and transportation make up sizable shares of non-farm employment in Ethiopia's agri-food system.
Optimizing livelihood and environmental benefits from crop residues in smallh...ILRI
Presentation by Sabine Homann-Kee Tui and Andre van Rooyen for the SLP Crop Residues Project Review and Planning Meeting, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9-10 December 2010.
Feeding Nigeria's current and future population is a critical challenge. This challenge necessitates the adoption and application of innovations to agriculture so as to make the sector more competitive and sustainable. Boosting economic growth in agriculture is a function of three factors: farmland expansion, yield growth and reduction in post-harvest losses.
Cades lecture november 2013: agriculture, food & globalisationchris claes
Smallholder farming and its contribution to saving the world.
The document discusses the importance of smallholder farming in addressing issues related to global food security and poverty reduction. It notes that smallholder farmers currently produce most of the world's food but many live in poverty and face challenges from factors like climate change, competition for resources, and market pressures. Investing in smallholder farming could help feed the growing global population, reduce rural poverty, and lessen environmental impacts compared to industrial agriculture models. The world will need to support smallholder systems if it wants to achieve food security and sustainability goals by 2050.
1. Agriculture and Ethiopia's agri-food system are extremely important for employment in Ethiopia, accounting for over 80% of total employment. While the share of agriculture in employment is declining slowly, it remains much larger than agriculture's share of GDP.
2. On-farm productivity has been increasing over time but remains low. Larger, more commercial farms are becoming more important but make up only a small percentage of total agricultural area. Labor productivity is significantly higher on larger farms and in more connected areas. Agricultural labor markets differ by remoteness, with more monetized labor in less remote areas.
3. Ethiopia's food processing, trade, and transport sectors have been growing rapidly, providing increasing
Dr. Douglas Southgate - More than Nine Billion to Feed in 2050John Blue
More than Nine Billion to Feed in 2050 - Dr. Douglas Southgate, Professor Emeritus, The Ohio State University, from the 2017 NIAA Annual Conference, U.S. Animal Agriculture's Future Role In World Food Production - Obstacles & Opportunities, April 4 - 6, Columbus, OH, USA.
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2017_niaa_us_animal_ag_future_role_world_food_production
The document discusses the positive economic impacts of the U.S. energy renaissance driven by increased production of shale gas and tight oil. It notes that this energy boom has led to over 1 million new jobs, billions in tax revenues, energy independence and security, lower energy costs for consumers and businesses, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The low natural gas prices are fueling a manufacturing resurgence in the U.S. and billions in new investment. Overall the energy renaissance presents many reasons for economic optimism going forward.
The document discusses the implications of the Affordable Care Act on individuals, employers, and the healthcare industry. It finds that the Act will provide coverage to around 30 million uninsured Americans through Medicaid expansion and insurance subsidies. For individuals, there will be a penalty for not obtaining coverage starting in 2014. Employers with over 50 employees will face a penalty starting in 2015 if they do not provide affordable coverage. The healthcare industry will see both costs and revenues impacted, with insurers expected to gain many new customers but also facing new regulations, and hospitals losing some funding but gaining new insured patients. Overall the impacts are viewed as manageable for most employers and positive for the healthcare sector in the long run.
Global synchronization provide upward bias to Equity based investments once again. In depth look at how Janney breaks down the year ahead and where to invest to take advantage of the reemergence of Global Growth.
The document discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2012. It predicts that US GDP growth will accelerate to 2.0-2.5% in the second half of the year, helped by improving housing, employment, and consumer demand. It also discusses the outlook for other major economies like the Eurozone, Japan, and China, noting continued challenges from the European debt crisis but also the use of monetary and fiscal policy tools to support growth. Key investment implications include overweighting equities and shifting exposure to non-US markets.
This document provides information to help plan for a financially secure retirement. It discusses important questions to consider, such as saving enough and having realistic spending goals. It also outlines risks like longevity, inflation, market uncertainty and illness that are hard to control. The document emphasizes the importance of retirement planning and monitoring expenses, income sources, asset allocation and withdrawals over time to adapt to changes. The overall message is to carefully assess savings, income needs, guaranteed versus non-guaranteed income sources and use tools like annuities to optimize securing a stable retirement.
This document discusses web API test automation using Frisby, a Node.js framework. It provides an introduction to web APIs and the differences between SOAP and REST. The objectives are to understand web APIs, differentiate SOAP and REST, learn common API test tools, and develop API test automation with Frisby and Node.js. Frisby methods like Get(), Post(), Put(), and Delete() are demonstrated along with expectations like expectStatus() and expectJSON(). Challenges with Frisby like documentation, debugging, and asynchronous calls are addressed. A case study is presented on SHIFT ASIA's methodology incorporating Frisby into their automated API testing.
This document discusses how changing US demographics, specifically the aging Baby Boomer generation and coming of age Millennials, will impact the economy and stock market in coming decades. It finds that while retiring Baby Boomers will slow economic growth, Millennials are a larger population now entering their peak spending years, supplemented by Generation X, providing strong economic demand to offset declining Baby Boomer consumption. Certain industries like housing and autos are positioned to benefit from these demographic tailwinds. Student loan debt is high but should not cause a financial crisis due to key differences from the mortgage crisis. The economy is projected to grow around 2.1% annually over the next decade due to demographic factors.
The document discusses China's rapid economic growth over the past few decades and analyzes its future prospects and challenges. It notes that while China faces issues like debt and excess industrial capacity, the risks of a "hard landing" are remote. China is at a critical turning point as it transitions from an export/investment-led model to one based more on domestic consumption. Continued urbanization and development of inland provinces provide significant potential for future growth as China catches up to more advanced economies. Reform measures recently announced by China's new leadership may lead to investment opportunities from economic changes.
This document discusses the importance of investing to maintain purchasing power in the face of inflation. It argues that many investors' goal should be to grow their capital at a rate that matches or exceeds inflation. Stocks that pay dividends are presented as a solution, as they can provide income that increases over time to outpace inflation. Several large, stable companies are used as examples that have consistently raised their dividends by over 10% annually for the past decade, demonstrating how purchasing power can be achieved through dividend-paying stocks.
Lanyrd Pro is an event marketing and management tool that helps companies maximize their impact at events. It allows companies to create branded public profiles and event calendars, showcase employee expertise at conferences, and promote their brand. Lanyrd Pro gives insights into a company's event strategy through analytics and helps increase brand exposure to thousands of event attendees. It provides visibility of a company's event presence and helps plan future event marketing.
Lanyrd is now integrated with Eventbrite to allow users to connect their accounts and automatically sync event attendance between the two platforms. This will help users network with other attendees before and after events more effectively by tying their profiles together across services.
By 2050, the world's population will reach 9.1 billion people, with nearly all growth occurring in developing countries. Food production will need to increase by 70% to feed this larger, more urban, and wealthier population. This document argues that increased agricultural investment, productivity growth, and ensuring access to food can achieve global food security. However, risks like climate change and increased biofuel production could undermine food availability and access. Coordinated international action is needed to support agricultural development and address these risks.
The document discusses global food waste and the need to reduce waste to feed a growing population. It estimates that 30-50% of all food produced, equal to 1.2-2 billion tonnes, is lost before being consumed. With the world population projected to reach 9.5 billion by 2075, reducing food waste is crucial to ensure enough resources to feed everyone in a sustainable way. Food waste occurs at different points along the supply chain depending on a country's level of development. In developing countries, much waste happens on farms due to inadequate infrastructure, while developed countries waste more food at the retail and consumer levels due to marketing standards and overpurchasing. Reducing waste could help optimize land and water usage and lessen
Our Industry 2014 is packed with insights and useful facts, graphs and images from Syngenta and many external sources. It covers the global challenges relating to food security and includes sections on the major crops and on advances in agricultural technology.
STEPS Annual Lecture 2017: Achim Steiner - Doomed to fail or bound to succeed...STEPS Centre
Achim Steiner, incoming UNDP director, gave the STEPS Annual lecture at the University of Sussex on 15 May 2017. Find out more: https://steps-centre.org/event/steps-annual-lecture-achim-steiner/
SPVentures no lançamento da AgTech Garage.AgTech Garage
Apresentação de Francisco Jardim, sócio da SPVentures, durante o encontro "A Nova Era da Inovação no Agro" que marcou o Lançamento da AgTech Garage no dia 1 de junho de 2017, no Cubo Coworking, em SP.
This document discusses six strategic sectors that can be used to develop maps for progress:
1) Finance and investment to obtain wealth for the common good
2) Health and dissemination of knowledge from biotechnology to eradicate diseases
3) Biotechnological agriculture and water treatment as bases for food and survival
4) Energy geopolitics on fossil fuels, alternative energies, and new energy sources
5) Geopolitical dynamics as a global interrelation
6) Active ownership in companies to foster long-term value creation over short-term gains
This document discusses the challenges facing agriculture due to increasing global population and climate change. It notes that crop yields have plateaued and climate change will further reduce yields. Two options to address this are discussed: 1) genetic engineering/smart breeding of environmentally friendly genes or 2) revisiting agricultural strategies. For the second option, the document analyzes Pakistan's agricultural resources and potential, and notes climate change could lower production by over 25% without new varieties. It argues for strategic planning, developing climate-friendly crops, prioritizing food for people over animals, conserving genetic diversity, and supporting small farmers' traditional practices to help crops withstand climate change.
The document summarizes the challenges facing Indian agriculture, including stagnating productivity growth, declining farmer incomes, and negative environmental impacts from the Green Revolution. It discusses the need for urgent policy interventions to support farmers and protect their livelihoods. Key barriers to overcome include declining yields, lack of cultivable land, and water scarcity. The future of Indian agriculture depends on addressing issues like resource degradation, investment levels, technology development, and the effects of globalization and urbanization.
Presentation by Claudia Ringler, Hartwig Kremer and Cheikh Mbow at the UNEA Science Policy Interface, May 19-20
Presentation focuses on the concept of the water, food and energy nexus and its importance within the development context. It also provides a number of cases highlighting nexus issues.
Uma Lele's ICID Presentation, World Irrigation Forum, 29 Sept-5 Oct, TurkeyGlobal Water Partnership
The document discusses challenges and developments in financing irrigation and drainage sectors globally. Key points include:
1) Agricultural intensification is critical but water is also critical for intensification and improving water use efficiency.
2) New paradigms are needed for financing irrigation and drainage given changes like globalization, technology advances, and climate impacts.
3) Modernizing surface irrigation systems is important but modernization alone is not a silver bullet and must be adapted to different country and regional contexts.
The document discusses key issues facing small-scale farmers and recommendations from a global agricultural assessment. It finds that:
1) Food prices have risen due to increasing global demand, high energy costs, weather issues, biofuel production, and market speculation. However, prices remain below 1970s-80s levels. Agricultural intensification has benefited some but left over 850 million hungry and 150 million children malnourished.
2) Agriculture must be viewed as multi-functional, providing economic, environmental and social benefits alongside food production. Approaches should sustain yields without degrading the environment.
3) Empowering small-scale farmers and women, agro-ecological practices, local knowledge integration,
1. The white book identifies five major ESG challenges that will shape the future global economy: changing demographics, water scarcity, climate change, increased attention to corporate governance, and a shortage of human capital.
2. Changing demographics will see population growth concentrated in Asia and Africa, with Asia's population dominating the global share. Water scarcity will be exacerbated by growing populations, industrialization, consumption patterns, and climate change, threatening nearly half the world's population by 2030.
3. Climate change presents very serious global risks and demands an urgent global response to cut carbon emissions at least 50% by 2020 to limit global warming. Increased attention to corporate governance is needed following the financial crisis attributed
Accelerating Innovation in Agriculture 2014 01-23 ACIAR
Dr Achim Dobermann, outgoing Deputy Director General (Research) International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) presented a seminar at ACIAR on “Accelerating Agricultural Innovations for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda” on 23 January 2014
The document discusses global and India's freshwater situation. Globally, freshwater reserves are depleting rapidly due to population growth, inefficient use, and climate change. By 2025, many countries including India, China, and parts of Europe and Africa will face water scarcity. In India, traditional water reserves are under strain from increasing population, urbanization, and economic development. Improved national water management strategies are needed to integrate regional initiatives and ensure long-term sustainable water usage across sectors.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT – A CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL APPRAISAL Arvind Kumar
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT – A CRITICAL
ENVIRONMENTAL APPRAISAL by DR. I.D. MALLDepartment of Chemical Engg.Indian Institute of Technology, RoorkeeRoorkee- 247667
This document discusses opportunities in the global agricultural sector, with a focus on opportunities in Nigeria. It notes that global demand for agricultural produce is increasing due to population growth, urbanization, rising incomes, and other factors. This is putting pressure on grains and cassava production. It also discusses the increasing global demand for protein as middle classes and incomes rise. Specific opportunities mentioned for Nigeria include investing in arable land, cassava production, fisheries, poultry, and animal husbandry. The document provides statistics and analysis to support these points.
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"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
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Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
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Outlook 2013: Feed the World
1. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP
MICHAEL HALLORAN, CFA
Strategy Analyst
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC
MARK LUSCHINI
Chief Investment Strategist
Janney Montgomery Scott LLC
2. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUPINVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 1
As part of our Outlook 2013, we are highlighting several themes that are impacting the U.S. and global economy: Global Infrastructure;
The U.S. Energy Renaissance; and Feed the World. These themes have major investment implications and should play a key role in
future market returns. In this piece, we are focusing on Feed the World.
The global economy faces a major challenge in order to feed the world over the coming decades. The global population is expected to
increase to over 9 billion people by 2050, representing 2.3 billion more people to feed. In addition, economic development in the
emerging markets could produce 3 billion more middle-class consumers in the next 20 years, compared with 1.8 billion today. These
consumers have better diets and consume more calories and meat, which requires more land per calorie to produce. Compounding
the challenge, global growth in crop yields has been slowing since the 1970s and is now weaker than population growth.
Agriculture is the largest user of water globally, accounting for 75% of water usage. A serious discussion of agriculture necessarily
involves a discussion of global water resources, where it is likely to be costly and difficult to increase supply.
This agricultural challenge will require tremendous strides in productivity that can only be obtained by innovative technology, advanced
machinery and communication equipment, supply chain optimization, and implementation of agricultural best practices around the
world. Required capital investment estimates range from $870 – $990 billion per year, up from today’s $560 billion per year.
Many companies highlighted in this report are global leaders at improving agricultural productivity, and will play critical roles over the
coming decades in order to safely and adequately feed the world. They should represent solid investments for investors with long-term
time horizons.
We hope you find this report useful and informative for your investment needs.
3. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Real GDP $ trillion• According to the United Nations, food production must increase 70% by 2050 to feed
the expected global population of more than 9 billion people. This amounts to an
estimated 2.3 billion more people to feed. To put this in perspective, we will need to
produce the same amount of food over the next four decades than we produced over
the past 8,000 years.
• The demand for food is expected to grow as a result of both population growth and
rising incomes. In the last 10 years alone, global population has increased 13% and
global incomes have grown by 29%. During this same period, global crop area
harvested has grown only 8%.
• The growth of India and China is historically unprecedented and is happening at
about 10 times the speed at which the United Kingdom improved average incomes
during the Industrial Revolution—and on roughly 200 times the scale. In India,
estimates show calorie intake per person could rise by 20% over the next 20 years,
and China’s per capita meat consumption could increase by 40% to 75 kilograms
(165 pounds) a year (and still be well below U.S. consumption levels).
• Worldwide, more than one in six people are malnourished. The World Bank
estimates that increases in food prices in the second half of 2010 pushed 44 million
people into poverty. In addition, about 884 million people lack access to safe water.
• Increasing water supply is likely to be costly and difficult. Sources of freshwater are
already under stress. Lakes are drying up in many parts of the world, and rivers often
dry up before they reach the ocean because of overconsumption of their water.
Water pollution has also rendered a portion of surface water unusable. For example,
21% of available surface water in China is unfit for agriculture.
Food (Cereals only) Million tonnes
Water Cubic Kilometers
4. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 3
• Assuming current yield improvements, the supply of cropland
over the next 20 years may need to increase by as much as
250% relative to the past 20 years. This is due to demand for
food and feed, a declining rate of growth in yields, and the use
of biofuels increasing incremental land demand.
• Land degradation, climate change, and the loss of arable land
due to the expansion of the world’s cities could remove
significant additional cropland from production over the next 20
years.
• The two main drivers of higher water demand are historic
underinvestment in supply and accelerated growth in water
withdrawals. Water withdrawals are likely to increase by more
than 40% between now and 2030.
• Increased agricultural output would account for 65% of
incremental water demand, growth in water-intensive
industries an additional 25%, and municipal demand the
remaining 10%.
Additional supply of water and land required would
have to accelerate over next 20 years, assuming
today’s productivity levels.
Incremental &
Replacement
Supply
(1990 – 2010)
Incremental &
Replacement
Supply
(2010 – 2030)
Percentage
Increase
Water (cubic
kilometers)
900 2,150 139%
Land (million cropland
hectares)
63 220 249%
Numbers represent incremental supply plus replacement rate and do not tie to total demand.
Analysis assumes that agricultural yields per hectare improve at 1% per annum and that
agricultural water productivity (i.e., crop-per-drop) increases at 0.8% per annum.
Source: Janney ISG; FAO; McKinsey Global Institute
5. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 4
• Large scale farms account for an estimated 70% of global
land under cultivation. Increasing their yields could
account for 65% of the potential improvement in the
yields on cropland as a whole over the next 20 years.
Additional benefits can be obtained by increasing the
yields on smallholder farms.
• Improving best technology adoption in both developing
and developed countries’ large-scale farms would greatly
enhance productivity. Improved mechanization ,as well as
optimizing genetic variety and farming practices, can
significantly boost yields.
• Investing in farming practices (such as machinery to
support precision farming) and in the basic infrastructure
for getting goods from farms to market is critical for
improving productivity, and requires better access to
capital.
• Reducing food waste in the value chain could deliver
significant productivity gains. Optimizing processing,
packaging, distribution, storage, and transportation are
major opportunities.
Productivity improvements could more than offset the expected
increase in land demand, and offset 60% of expected water demand.
Base case demand assumes that yields per hectare improve at 1% per annum and that agricultural water productivity
(i.e., crop-per-drop) increases at 0.8% per annum (in line with recent historical trends).
Source: Janney ISG, McKinsey
4500
6350
5100
1250
2010 2030 Base
Case
2030
WATER
(Cubic Kilometers)
Demand Productivity Improvement
1535 1260
1260
470
2010 2030 Base
Case
2030
LAND
(million cropland hectares)
Demand Productivity Improvement
6. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 5
• Reducing land degradation and restoring degraded land offers
the potential to reduce yield loss.
– Technology and machinery play a major role.
• Improved irrigation techniques represent the second-largest
opportunity to reduce the global consumption of water after
improving crop yields. Advanced irrigation techniques can
improve yields by 15–30%, while reducing the water required
by 20–60%.
– Machinery and fertilizers play a key role in enabling advanced
irrigation techniques.
• More than 80% of available, arable land is in countries with
infrastructure issues.
– Improving global infrastructure is critical for productivity.
• Historical rates of land and water productivity have lagged
other sectors of the economy.
– Technologies like the digital revolution that has accelerated
productivity growth across the wider economy could have a similar
impact on land and water.
Significant capital investments required to Feed the World:
Average annual capital expenditure requirement, 2010–2030
($ billion, constant 2010 dollars).
2010 Capital
Expenditure
Supply
Expansion
Scenario
Improved
Productivity
Scenario
Water 270 615 470
Land 310 375 400
Source: Janney ISG; McKinsey
7. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUPINVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP
9.3
8.4
7.4
6.8
5.5
4.3
2.9
2.1
1.7 1.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020E 2040E
Global Arable Acres per capita
Source: United Nations
Withaccess to wateran increasingly importantconstraint on
incrementalagricultural production,maximizing productivityon
existingacreage hasbecome a keyfocusin the farming industry.
The upshot? Makersof technologies
thatenable farmerstomaximize yield
shouldsee strongdemandgrowth.
8. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUPINVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP
Growth in Productivity of the U.S. Farm Sector
-0.52
0.02
-0.08
0.69
0.11
1.63
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Labor Capital Land Materials Total
Inputs
Output
Annual Growth Rates Between 1948-2009
(in %)
Farm Inputs
Source: USDA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1901 1916 1931 1946 1961 1976 1991 2006
U.S. CornYield
(bushels per acre)
Source: USDA
AG All U.S.
1.7% 3.2%
Share due to:
Non-Labor Inputs 11.8% 54.1%
Labor Hours -34.2% 23.7%
Labor Quality 5.6% 8.8%
Growth in TFP 116.8% 13.4%
Avg. Annual Output
Growth:
The tremendous growth in the output of the U.S. farm sector is well-documented, but less attention is typically paid to the factors driving the significant yield improvements. According to a
study by the USDA, total factor productivity (technological advancements and farming best practices) was the main driver of increased U.S. agricultural production between 1960 and 2004.
9. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUPINVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP
Genetically-enhanced seeds experienced tremendous growth the past 10 years as the penetration rate of precision ag is not far behind it. With farmers in emerging markets yet to fully
embrace these advancements, and U.S. farmers in the early innings of technology utilization, adoption of technology in the agriculture industry remains a compelling growth driver.
Precision Agriculture Adoption and Seed Usage
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2005 2010
PrecisionAgricultureAdoption
(% of corn acres using technology)
Some Technology Used
Yield Monitor Used
Yield Map Created
Source: USDA
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
2000 2005 2010
Use of Insecticide & Herbicide Resistant Seeds
GMO Herbicide Resistant BT Insecticide Resistant
Source: USDA
10. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 9
Company Name Ticker
Forward
P/E
Earnings
Growth
Dividend
Yield Credit Rating Notes Coverage
Staples - 12.0% of S&P 500
These staple companies operate all along the agricultural value chain, from fertilizers and farm fields to the grocery isle and dinner table.
ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND CO ADM 13.61 10.00 - A Major global manufacturer and processor of agricultural commodities. S&P
BUNGE LTD BG 9.51 9.33 1.55 BBB- Major global agribusiness and food company with integrated operations. S&P
CHIQUITA BRANDS INTL CQB 16.35 4.00 - B Leading international distributor of high-quality fresh and value-added produce. J
CALAVO GROWERS INC CVGW 20.37 11.50 2.18 - Global leader in avocado industry and a provider of value-added fresh food. J
DOLE FOOD CO INC DOLE 21.48 6.50 - B World’s leading producer of fresh fruit and vegetables, including value-added products. J
FRESH DEL MONTE PRODUCE INC FDP 15.70 5.00 1.58 NR Vertically integrated producer and marketer of fresh and packaged fresh-cut produce. J
TYSON FOODS INC-CL A TSN 12.08 8.50 1.15 BBB One of world's largest meat protein firms, products include beef, chicken and pork. S&P / CS
Energy - 10.8% of S&P 500
Energy fuels the entire supply chain for agriculture and water. Exploration & Production companies are responsible for finding oil & gas for the future.
EOG RESOURCES INC EOG 19.37 10.97 0.53 A- Large independent E&P company with Bakken Shale oil growth exposure. S&P / CS
CONOCOPHILLIPS COP 11.30 5.55 - A One of the largest independent E&P companies in the world. S&P / CS
SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXP & PR XOP - - - - Equal-weighted basket of 71 E&P companies.
VANGUARD ENERGY ETF VDE - - - - Cap-weighted basket of 169 companies across entire Energy sector.
Industrials - 10.0% of S&P 500
Machinery firms play a critical role in improving the productivity of agriculture and water usage.
AGCO CORP AGCO 9.94 9.67 0.18 BBB- Global manufacturer of a wide range of agricultural equipment. J / S&P / CS
CATERPILLAR INC CAT 12.60 10.33 2.34 A Enables much of the heavy infrastructure lifting across the globe. S&P / CS
DEERE & CO DE 10.33 9.25 2.15 A Among the world’s largest providers of agricultural equipment J / S&P / CS
LINDSAY CORP LNN 15.52 13.33 0.53 - Leading global manufacturer of advanced irrigation systems. J
VALMONT INDUSTRIES VMI 14.39 17.35 0.58 BBB Leading global manufacturer of advanced irrigation systems. J / CS
INDUSTRIAL SELECT SECT SPDR XLI - - - - Broad exposure to 62 U.S. based industrials. GE is largest holding.
11. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 10
Materials - 3.5% of S&P 500
Advanced seed technology and fertilizers are critical for improving farm land yields.
AGRIUM INC AGU 9.74 13.00 1.61 BBB Global provider of advanced fertilizer and crop protection products. CS
DU PONT (E.I.) DE NEMOURS DD 14.52 7.70 3.04 A Global leader in seed technology, crop protection, and food packaging. S&P / CS
MONSANTO CO MON 22.15 14.36 1.33 A+ MON's seeds, biotechnology products, and herbicides improve farm productivity. S&P / CS
MOSAIC CO/THE MOS 14.95 8.00 1.43 BBB Major global producer of phosphate and potash based crop nutrients. S&P / CS
POTASH CORP OF SASKATCHEWAN POT 14.40 7.50 1.99 A- Integrated fertilizer and related industrial and feed products company. S&P / CS
Information Technology - 18.2% of S&P 500
Technology firms are enabling advanced infrastructure development and playing a key role in improving agriculture and water productivity. They are also developing the advanced wireless and wireline communications
networks that will help optimize the global food chain.
ITRON INC ITRI 14.97 3.83 - BB Provides energy and water management solutions for nearly 8,000 utilities worldwide. J / S&P / CS
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION LTD TRMB 18.73 14.00 - - Turning farm into factory thru high-tech positioning and communication devices. J / S&P
ISHARES S&P NA TEC-MUL N IF IGN - - - - Broad exposure to telecom equipment, data networking and wireless equipment stocks.
Telecom - 2.9% of S&P 500
Advanced communication infrastructure systems are required to optimize the global food chain.
AMERICAN TOWER CORP AMT 37.43 21.34 1.21 BB+ Largest independent N.A. tower operator, also in South America and India. S&P
VODAFONE GROUP PLC-SP ADR VOD 11.31 3.29 - A- Leading global provider of international wireless telecommunications services. S&P / CS
ISHARES S&P GLBL TELECOMM SE IXP - - - - Broad exposure to global telecom with a solid dividend yield.
Utilities - 3.2% of S&P 500
Utilities play a key infrastructure role in the agriculture and water supply chain and will be critical for improving productivity.
AMERICAN WATER WORKS CO INC AWK 18.33 7.27 1.85 A- Largest investor owned water utility provides service to 5% of U.S. population. J / CS
AES CORP AES 9.69 9.50 0.65 BB- World's largest independent power producer operates in 27 countries. S&P
CONSOLIDATED WATER CO-ORD SH CWCO 20.63 13.00 2.78 - Global developer of seawater desalination plants and water distribution systems. J
ISHARES S&P GLOBAL UTILITIES JXI - - - - Broad exposure to global utilities.
Definitions:
Forward P/E - Current stock price divided by EPS consensus estimate for the next four quarters.
Earnings Growth Estimate - Mean broker estimate of the compounded annual growth rate of the operating eps over the company's next full business cycle (typically 3-5 years).
Dividend Yield - Trailing 12 month dividend per share divided by share price
Credit Rating - Rating assigned by Standard & Poor's to the long term obligations of the issuer if repaid in the local currency of the issuer.
12. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP 11
Fund Symbol Description
iShares MSCI
Global Agriculture
Producers ETF
VEGI
Holds 132 companies that provide exposure to the global agriculture industry and tracks the MSCI
ACWI Select Agricultural Producers Investable Market Index. The index looks to track companies that
derive a majority of total revenue from early-phase agricultural production. Roughly 40% of VEGI’s
assets are U.S. holdings. Monsanto (MON), Potash (POT), Deere (DE), and Archer Daniels Midland
(ADM) are major holdings. VEGI has a favorable 0.39% expense ratio.
Market Vectors
Agribusiness ETF
MOO
Offers global exposure to the agriculture industry by investing in 53 companies that sell agricultural
equipment, chemicals, and seeds, such as Monsanto MON, Potash POT, and Deere DE. Tracks the
Market Vectors Global Agribusiness Index. Large and liquid product with a fee of 0.55% annually.
13. INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUPINVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP
The Janney Outlook is being provided solely for informational and illustrative purposes, is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities highlighted
herein, and does not constitute investment advice by Janney Montgomery Scott LLC or its affiliates. Decisions to buy or sell a stock should be based on an investor’s
investment objectives and risk tolerance and this material should not be relied upon in substitution of independent judgment. This material does not take into account
individual client circumstances, objectives or needs and is not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients.
The information provided in the list has been obtained or derived from sources believed by Janney Montgomery Scott LLC to be reliable. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC,
however, does not represent that this information is accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates contained in this report represent the judgment of the Investment
Strategy Group of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC at this time and are subject to change without notice. The opinions and estimates do not necessarily represent the
viewpoint of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, its Research Department or any other group or employee associated with Janney Montgomery Scott LLC or its affiliates, and
may differ from opinions or estimates of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, including its Research Department, and its affiliates. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC or its affiliates
may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this
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purchases or sales of such securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise and may sell to or buy from customers such securities on a principal basis. This list
includes only companies that receive research analyst coverage from either Janney Montgomery Scott LLC’s Research Department or a research provider whose research
is available to Janney Montgomery Scott LLC Financial Advisors and that also currently pay a dividend to shareholders. Thus, the universe of potential companies that
could be included in this representative list is narrower than the total universe of public companies.
Dividend information is as of 5/31/2013. ―P/E Forward‖ refers to the stock price as of 5/31/2013 divided by the earnings per share consensus estimate for the next four
quarters. ―Growth Rate %‖ is an estimate of the compounded annual growth rate of the operating earnings per share over the company’s next full business cycle (typically 3
to 5 years). ―Dividend Yield‖ refers to the trailing 12-month dividend per share divided by share price.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and future returns are not guaranteed. There are risks associated with investing in stocks such as a loss of
original capital or a decrease in the value of your investment. A company may also decide to decrease or cancel a dividend payment at any time without notice. For
additional information or questions, please consult with your Financial Advisor.
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