Slowdown in Chinese Economy and its Impact on the Worldinamdaramaan
This presentation includes the overview of the causes and impact of Chinese slowdown and throws some light on future possibilities which can occur and main concerns to worry about.
China is very important economy due the size of its population along with trade with the world. China needs to be push to make changes in terms of environment, land management, urban planning, health and safety, food inspection, forestry management and water management. Key organizations like WHO, UN, WTO, etc need to do more audits to ensure China is following the rules.
Slowdown in Chinese Economy and its Impact on the Worldinamdaramaan
This presentation includes the overview of the causes and impact of Chinese slowdown and throws some light on future possibilities which can occur and main concerns to worry about.
China is very important economy due the size of its population along with trade with the world. China needs to be push to make changes in terms of environment, land management, urban planning, health and safety, food inspection, forestry management and water management. Key organizations like WHO, UN, WTO, etc need to do more audits to ensure China is following the rules.
China's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addictedRBS Economics
China's economy is slowing. It's policy makers are having to contend with a massive debt-fuelled investment binge and the need to implement necessary reforms to rebalance the economy.
Senior Economist Marcus Wright goes behind the headlines with this stock take that sets out the main economic challenges facing China.
I’m a young Pakistani Blogger, Academic Writer, Freelancer, Quaidian & MPhil Scholar, Quote Lover, Co-Founder at Essar Student Fund & Blueprism Academia, belonging from Mehdiabad, Skardu, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan.
I am an academic writer & freelancer! I can work on Research Paper, Thesis Writing, Academic Research, Research Project, Proposals, Assignments, Business Plans, and Case study research.
Expertise:
Management Sciences, Business Management, Marketing, HRM, Banking, Business Marketing, Corporate Finance, International Business Management
For Order Online:
Whatsapp: +923452502478
Portfolio Link: https://blueprismacademia.wordpress.com/
Email: arguni.hasnain@gmail.com
Follow Me:
Linkedin: arguni_hasnain
Instagram : arguni.hasnain
Facebook: arguni.hasnain
Know how China's Economic Slowdown has a significant impact on key economies that have strong trade ties with the country? Download the Aranca special report on China Slowdown here.
Remittances and Household Welfare:
A Case Study of Pakistan
by
Vaqar Ahmed, Guntur Sugiyarto, and Shikha Jha
Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Asian Development Bank
Human resource development and foreign remittances : The case of South Asia. The paper explains links between HRD, migration and remittances in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Maldives
Libra6 Management, Corp (Libra6) provides seed through growth capital for companies focused on technology primarily for enterprise customers. Libra6 invests across sectors Entertainment, Cleantech; Healthcare; Real Estate Aerospace.
Impact of IMF loan on Pakistan's economy: In long run and short runAyesha Majid
To keep the balance of payments in check and to meet the financial obligations government of Pakistan has signed 13th bailout with IMF. This bailout has laid several conditions on the Pakistani government including those on taxes and subsidies, government spending, interest rate, foreign exchange rate and Pakistan's borrowing from China.
Whether the program turns to be beneficial or detrimental for the economy depends how the public responds to the measures and how thoughtfully the government implements it.
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI)inventionjournals
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
World bank report on China Economic Update 2013Shiv ognito
The World Bank economic update provides an update on recent economic and social developments and policies in China, and presents findings from ongoing World Bank work on China. The update was produced by a World Bank team consisting of Karlis Smits (Senior Economist), Bingjie Hu (Economist), Binglie Luo (Research Assistant), Tony Ollero (Economist), and Ekaterine Vashakmadze (Senior Economist) with support from the China country team, and under the overall guidance of Klaus Rohland (Country Director), Sudhir Shetty (Sector Director), Bert Hoftman (Regional Chief Economist), and Chorching Goh (Lead Economist).
China's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addictedRBS Economics
China's economy is slowing. It's policy makers are having to contend with a massive debt-fuelled investment binge and the need to implement necessary reforms to rebalance the economy.
Senior Economist Marcus Wright goes behind the headlines with this stock take that sets out the main economic challenges facing China.
I’m a young Pakistani Blogger, Academic Writer, Freelancer, Quaidian & MPhil Scholar, Quote Lover, Co-Founder at Essar Student Fund & Blueprism Academia, belonging from Mehdiabad, Skardu, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan.
I am an academic writer & freelancer! I can work on Research Paper, Thesis Writing, Academic Research, Research Project, Proposals, Assignments, Business Plans, and Case study research.
Expertise:
Management Sciences, Business Management, Marketing, HRM, Banking, Business Marketing, Corporate Finance, International Business Management
For Order Online:
Whatsapp: +923452502478
Portfolio Link: https://blueprismacademia.wordpress.com/
Email: arguni.hasnain@gmail.com
Follow Me:
Linkedin: arguni_hasnain
Instagram : arguni.hasnain
Facebook: arguni.hasnain
Know how China's Economic Slowdown has a significant impact on key economies that have strong trade ties with the country? Download the Aranca special report on China Slowdown here.
Remittances and Household Welfare:
A Case Study of Pakistan
by
Vaqar Ahmed, Guntur Sugiyarto, and Shikha Jha
Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Asian Development Bank
Human resource development and foreign remittances : The case of South Asia. The paper explains links between HRD, migration and remittances in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Maldives
Libra6 Management, Corp (Libra6) provides seed through growth capital for companies focused on technology primarily for enterprise customers. Libra6 invests across sectors Entertainment, Cleantech; Healthcare; Real Estate Aerospace.
Impact of IMF loan on Pakistan's economy: In long run and short runAyesha Majid
To keep the balance of payments in check and to meet the financial obligations government of Pakistan has signed 13th bailout with IMF. This bailout has laid several conditions on the Pakistani government including those on taxes and subsidies, government spending, interest rate, foreign exchange rate and Pakistan's borrowing from China.
Whether the program turns to be beneficial or detrimental for the economy depends how the public responds to the measures and how thoughtfully the government implements it.
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI)inventionjournals
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
World bank report on China Economic Update 2013Shiv ognito
The World Bank economic update provides an update on recent economic and social developments and policies in China, and presents findings from ongoing World Bank work on China. The update was produced by a World Bank team consisting of Karlis Smits (Senior Economist), Bingjie Hu (Economist), Binglie Luo (Research Assistant), Tony Ollero (Economist), and Ekaterine Vashakmadze (Senior Economist) with support from the China country team, and under the overall guidance of Klaus Rohland (Country Director), Sudhir Shetty (Sector Director), Bert Hoftman (Regional Chief Economist), and Chorching Goh (Lead Economist).
Data is a Designer's Best Friend - EuroIA 2016Kathryn Parkes
Delving into the world of the data scientist, this talk will show that once a few fundamentals of their language are understood, we can foster a valuable relationship between data and design. Leading to better outcomes for both parties.
Delivered at EuroIA Sept 2016 Amsterdam
* Get smarter about conferences and events,
* Maximize the impact of your event marketing strategy
* Showcase your team’s thought leadership and industry expertise
* Promote your brand through your team's engagement with events
Interested in Lanyrd Pro for your company or team? Contact us and we'll be in touch http://lanyrd.wufoo.eu/forms/lanyrd-pro-for-teams/
A graph is a structure composed of a set of vertices (i.e.~nodes, dots) connected to one another by a set of edges (i.e.~links, lines). The concept of a graph has been around since the late 19th century, however, only in recent decades has there been a strong resurgence in the development of both graph theories and applications. In applied computing, since the late 1960s, the interlinked table structure of the relational database has been the predominant information storage and retrieval paradigm. With the growth of graph/network-based data and the need to efficiently process such data, new data management systems have been developed. In contrast to the index-intensive, set-theoretic operations of relational databases, graph databases make use of index-free traversals. This presentation will discuss the graph traversal programming pattern and its application to problem-solving with graph databases.
Graphs in the Database: Rdbms In The Social Networks AgeLorenzo Alberton
Despite the NoSQL movement trying to flag traditional databases as a dying breed, the RDBMS keeps evolving and adding new powerful weapons to its arsenal. In this talk we'll explore Common Table Expressions (SQL-99) and how SQL handles recursion, breaking the bi-dimensional barriers and paving the way to more complex data structures like trees and graphs, and how we can replicate features from social networks and recommendation systems. We'll also have a look at window functions (SQL:2003) and the advanced reporting features they make finally possible.
NoSQL databases get a lot of press coverage, but there seems to be a lot of confusion surrounding them, as in which situations they work better than a Relational Database, and how to choose one over another. This talk will give an overview of the NoSQL landscape and a classification for the different architectural categories, clarifying the base concepts and the terminology, and will provide a comparison of the features, the strengths and the drawbacks of the most popular projects (CouchDB, MongoDB, Riak, Redis, Membase, Neo4j, Cassandra, HBase, Hypertable).
Ultimo informe elaborado por Atradius Crédito y Caución, sobre las economías de Asia-Pacífico, donde se analizan los plazos de pago y las previsiones de insolvencias para 2017
http://pwc.to/1lN91cC
Comme tous les mois, l’équipe d’économistes de PwC publie une note sur la situation macro-économique mondiale. Ce mois-ci, focus sur l’accroissement des inégalités dans les pays matures ; les incertitudes concernant la croissance chinoise ; et les prévisions de croissance pour la Grande-Bretagne.
China scares us because it looks like a bubble economy. Understanding these kinds of bubbles is important because
they represent a situation in which standard valuation methodologies may fail. Just as financial stocks gave a false
signal of cheapness before the GFC because the credit bubble pushed their earnings well above sustainable levels
and masked the risks they were taking, so some valuation models may fail in the face of the credit, real estate, and general fixed asset investment boom in China, since it has gone on long enough to warp the models’ estimation of
what “normal” is.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Global synchronization provide upward bias to Equity based investments once again. In depth look at how Janney breaks down the year ahead and where to invest to take advantage of the reemergence of Global Growth.
Introduction to Janney's Retirement Income Evaluator Tool. This concept is really starting to hit home considering the amount of baby boomers retiring evey day. Would you buy a car without first test driving it?
Investment outlook piece describing the Feed the World Theme. This will help to provide you with some insight in how to invest to take advantage of forth coming trends.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
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Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
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how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
NO1 Uk Black Magic Specialist Expert In Sahiwal, Okara, Hafizabad, Mandi Bah...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
#vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore#blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #blackmagicforlove #blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #Amilbabainuk #amilbabainspain #amilbabaindubai #Amilbabainnorway #amilbabainkrachi #amilbabainlahore #amilbabaingujranwalan #amilbabainislamabad
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
1. I N V E S T M E N T S T R A T E G Y G R O U P
The Long-Term Investment
Outlook for China
February 2014
2. W W W. J A N N E Y. C O M2
Investors have taken a pessimistic view of China’s
economic fundamentals and long-term structural
outlook. This has been driven by concerns over
the banking system, overall debt levels in the
economy, and slower economic growth rates.
Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are now trading at a deep
discount to global benchmarks, despite faster growth
in the economy and corporate profits. The new lead-
ership, under Premier Li Keqiang and President Xi
Jinping, has also recently announced significant positive
reform measures to emphasize free-market principles
and reduce the government’s role in the economy.
In this paper, we examine major issues that China faces
in continuing its extraordinarily rapid development,
and we discuss potential investment opportunities that
may result from economic reform.
Historical Perspective
of China’s Rapid Development
The growth of China is historically unprecedented and
is happening at about 10 times the speed at which the
United Kingdom improved average incomes during the
Industrial Revolution—and on a much greater scale.
China’s GDP growth has averaged about 10% since the
1990s, per capita income has jumped 13-fold in the
last three decades, and over 500 million people have
been lifted out of poverty. Even with this extraordinary
growth, China still needs to grow at an 8% per annum
rate through 2030 in order to reach the per-capita GDP
of South Korea, another emerging market country.
Keys to China’s Rapid
Historical Growth
1) Rapid industrialization, aided by globalization, and
structural movement of workers from low-productivity
agricultural jobs to high-productivity urban manu-
facturing and services jobs has led to a self-feeding,
positive development cycle.
2) Massive domestic savings have enabled large-scale
investment, without reliance on external funds, while
incorporating foreign investors has brought in ad-
vanced technology. Both of these factors have enhanced
productivity. Resulting low-cost, efficient infrastructure
and productivity gains created significant competitive
advantages, facilitating rapid industrialization and rising
income levels.
3) Chinese policymakers, while far from perfect, have
been flexible and responsive in meeting challenges.
The country’s economic reforms over the years have
eliminated rigidities, improved efficiencies, and
unleashed creativity—while avoiding major policy
blunders, as we discuss further.
China’s Importance to the Global
Economy has Grown Enormously
The Chinese economy expanded by about 8% in
2013, which represents a marked slowdown from the
double-digit pace commonly seen before the Global
Financial Crisis. Even so, five years after the Great
Recession, China’s GDP is currently 40% larger than
in 2008, accounting for 12% of the global total—up
from 7% in 2008 at the onset of the crisis. China
has contributed to almost half of the net increase in
global output over the past five years.
Currently, China accounts for 19% of emerging
market exports, compared with 14% five years ago.
Similarly, China accounts for 16% of exports of some
commodity-producing countries, more than double
2008 levels. China has emerged as the largest crude oil
importer in the world.
The global impact of the Chinese economy has grown
enormously, and its marginal impact will likely contin-
ue to grow. As such, getting China right has become all the
more important in understanding the global macro picture.
Chart A: Chinese GDP as a
Share of Global Total
(Source: Janney ISG, BCA Research)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
4012
10
8
6
4
2
0
40
30
20
10
0
Chart B: Chinese Contribution
to Global GDP Growth
2007 2013 2007 2013
6
12 40
20
Percent Percent
3. 3W W W. J A N N E Y. C O M
While there is little doubt that China will play a
leading role on the world stage in the 21st century,
there is more uncertainty about how investors
should seek to profit from this trend. Histori-
cally, the most straightforward and lucrative way
to “play” China has been through the commodity
markets and commodity related countries and
stocks. We think this has changed.
China is at a
Critical Turning Point
China’s double-digit growth rates over the last
decade were significantly aided by the massive
consumption boom in the developed world (China
was the high-volume manufacturer of low-margin
products for the world), which most likely ended
with the Great Recession. Contribution to growth
by net exports has recently turned negative, and
slower global demand will be a formidable head-
wind going forward.
Existing growth model flaws are also evidenced
by excess capacity that has built up in nearly all
sectors that the government had subsidized and
interfered in, in the rising cost structure, declining
global competitiveness, and shrinking corporate
profitability of many Chinese companies and in
the unprecedented environmental degradation.
With its export markets increasingly saturated, the
country has no choice but to shift its growth model
from investment and exports to domestic con-
sumption. This transition will offer investors many
opportunities, while also posing risks.
We View the Odds of a Debt-Driven
Chinese “Hard Landing” as Remote
A potential China “hard landing” is considered a
top risk facing the global economy. This concern
is driven by the amount of debt in the Chinese
economy, which is causing the Chinese authorities
to take precautionary measures. These measures
include cooling off the housing sector, restricting
local government borrowing, and tightening scru-
tiny on “shadow” banking (shadow banking, which
exists in every major economy, occurs when non-
bank financial institutions provide services similar
to traditional banks—but outside the system of
regulated depository banking).
Regulators have mandated banks to dramatically
increase the provision coverage ratio of non-
performing loans. The provision coverage ratio
of banks has increased from a mere 40% in 2007
prior to the financial crisis to about 300% current-
ly, a massive buffer to protect banks’ capital base.
The overall leverage ratio in the Chinese economy
is not exceptionally high compared with other
countries. The total indebtedness of the economy,
including the government, the corporate and
household sectors, is about 150% of GDP, substan-
tially lower than most other major countries in the
world (the U.S. stands at 300% of GDP). Even tak-
ing into consideration the shadow banking activity,
China’s overall leverage ratio, at 205% of GDP,
does not stand out in a global comparison.
Shadow Banking Analysis: The rapid expansion of
shadow banking activity in the past few years is a
risk factor that has weighed heavily on investors’
sentiment and on Chinese stocks.
Despite growing rapidly, the shadow banking activity
has not yet reached systemic significance (Charts
C and D). While there are certainly some trust and
wealth management products that have promised
unrealistic returns for investors, the overall situation
is less alarming than the individual cases that have
grabbed the headlines.
The average yield on wealth management products
is currently 5.5%, higher than Treasury yields but
lower than corporate bonds. Trust products on av-
erage have higher yields, but historically have been
more volatile and have not been too far off from
the average lending rate of new bank loans.
Finally, an overwhelming majority of Chinese financial
institutions are state-owned or state-controlled, and all
trust and wealth management products are issued in
local currency terms. Barring major policy mistakes, the
Chinese authorities have unlimited resources to back-
stop any potential crisis scenario.
We expect the shadow banking issue to remain un-
resolved for an extended period. While we believe
the risk of a credit event or financial crisis remains
low, the risk of default on trust and wealth man-
agement products will likely continue to surface,
creating headline risk and uncertainty for investors.
4. W W W. J A N N E Y. C O M4
Importance of Urbanization
Second, China’s urbanization rate will likely reach
53% as of 2013, compared with 20% at the begin-
ning of the country’s economic reforms in the
late 1970s. Nonetheless, China’s urbanization
rate is still substantially lower than that of other
countries at comparable income levels, let alone
the developed world.
Currently, China’s average urban income is three
times that of the rural sector, which generates
strong incentive for rural workers to move to cities
for more productive and better-paying jobs. If the
experience of some newly industrialized countries
offers a useful guide for China’s future roadmap, it
will take at least two more decades before China’s
urbanization rate reaches 80%—still a relatively
modest level compared with other major world
economies. Urbanization also generates the need
for infrastructure investment, especially in trans-
portation, housing, power, water, sanitation, and
social services—providing sources of demand as
well as economic growth.
Finally, the vast gap between China’s relatively
developed coastal region and the poorer inland
provinces provides the potential for less devel-
oped areas to catch up. The government has
been pouring capital into the inland provinces
to improve transportation infrastructure, and
private sectors have also been moving in to take
advantage of cheaper costs. As a result, the inland
provinces have been growing at a notably faster
pace than the coastal region in recent years. The
inland region can benefit from the experiences,
expertise, and capital of the more developed parts
Drivers of Future Growth
“Catch-up” Potential
A key driver to China’s future growth potential
is the gap between China and other advanced
economies. Using the U.S. as a benchmark for
the advanced frontier, China’s current per capita
GDP is slightly over 30% of the U.S. level, com-
parable to Japan in the 1960s and Korea in the
mid-1970s. This comparison highlights that despite
the tremendous progress China has made in the
past several decades, it still significantly lags other
advanced economies. This “catching-up” enables
China to achieve much faster productivity gains by
learning from technology know-how, institutional
infrastructure, and business best practices in the
developed world. This should not change funda-
mentally for at least the next 10 years.
Chart E: Per Capita GDP
(Source: Janney ISG, World Bank)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
In $U.S.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
China Mexico Korea Japan U.S.
$6,091
$9,749
$22,590
$46,720
$51,749Chart C: Trust Assets as a % of Total Bank Assets
(Source: Janney ISG, BCA Research)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Percent
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2010 2011 2012
2013
(thru Q3 2013)
3
4.2
5.5
6.75
Chart D: Wealth Management Products as a % of Total Bank Deposits
(Source: Janney ISG, BCA Research)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Percent
2010 2011 2012
2013
(thru Q3 2013)
10
8
6
4
2
0
3.3
5
8
9.5
Shadow Banking is not yet Systemically Significant
5. 5W W W. J A N N E Y. C O M
of the country. Infrastructure density and social
development levels in the inland regions are still
far inferior compared with the national average,
which suggests that the catch-up process has much
further to run.
Importance of Growing Middle Class
As China shifts its economy from an investment
and export-centric model to a consumer-centric
one, this will generate tremendous opportunities
for companies that are able to tap into the rising
incomes of China’s expanding middle class.
Defining the middle class as those who earn be-
tween $6,000 and $30,000 (this range is roughly
between the average income of Brazil and Italy),
China now has about 335 million people whose
incomes fall in that range—the current size of the
entire U.S. population. By 2020, over 75% of Chi-
nese income-earners will belong to this middle class,
up from 25% today. To put this in some perspective,
approximately 740 million Chinese people will join
the middle class club over the next decade, which is
more than Europe’s entire current population.
McKinsey research suggests that the upper middle
class is poised to become the principal engine of
consumer spending over the next decade. China
is already the world’s largest auto market and the
second largest luxury goods market. McKinsey
research also indicates that by 2015, more than
one-third of the money spent around the world
on high-end bags, shoes, watches, jewelry, and
ready-to-wear clothing will come from Chinese
consumers. There is also strong secular demand
for healthcare and insurance products.
Importance of Recent
Policy Meetings
In November of 2013, the Chinese government
released its reform blueprint, following the third
Plenum (a major Communist Party policy meet-
ing), which will guide the country’s development
in the coming decade. This policy meeting and
associated reform blueprint are notable because
they coincide with the early-days of the Xi Jinping-
Li Keqiang leadership decade, and because of the
historical record of prior third Plenums: the 1978
third Plenum launched what was to become the
economic reforms that transformed China from
a moribund, self-sufficient economy into a global
powerhouse, and the 1993 third Plenum estab-
lished the market reform agenda that was later
to be essential to the modernization of China’s
economy under Premier Zhu Rongji—both major
thresholds of policy change that were fundamental
to catalyzing China’s development progress.
The proposed reform measures seek to rearrange
the relationship between market forces and the
government in regulating economic affairs. The
Chinese leadership stated that market forces will be
granted the “determining” role, which infers that
the government will recede to a supportive position.
Role of the Market
The top leadership believes there are some ma-
jor problems in the economy where the role of
markets is insufficient, and the latest reform push
implies major changes in the pricing mechanism
in three areas where the government still main-
tains strong administrative controls:
1. Allowing free-market pricing of money—the
backbone of China’s financial reform. The
proposed reforms involve freer cross-border
capital flows, and ultimately the movement to
a market-driven floating exchange-rate system.
Furthermore, interest rates are to be liberal-
ized, allowing market participants to price
capital based on demand and supply, as well
as risk assessment. Liberalization measures
also include allowing private banks, setting up
deposit insurance programs, and changing
initial public offering (IPOs) procedures in the
equity market—all of which are designed to
encourage more efficient allocation of capital.
2. Allowing market forces and competition to
take control of resources—including utility
prices of water, petroleum, natural gas, electric-
ity, transportation, and telecom.
3. Allowing free-market pricing of land, particu-
larly in rural areas. This has the potential to
enable the rural population to monetize the
rising value of rural residential land, further
enhancing urbanization.
7. 7W W W. J A N N E Y. C O M
Table 2: Multinational Companies With Significant Chinese Opportunities
Company Name Ticker
Forward
P/E
Earnings
Growth
Dividend
Yield
Credit
Rating
Notes Coverage
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
Improving internal consumption is at the center of China’s long-term economic plans. Upper middle class is growing rapidly and demanding luxury brands.
BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG BMW GR 10.11 4.15 - A+ German car brands are in big demand in China. S&P
LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP LVS 19.64 16.50 1.87 BBB-
Major casino operator in Macau, the adult
playground of China.
S&P/CS/J
WYNN RESORTS LTD WYNN 25.80 11.00 3.33 BB+
Major casino operator in Macau, the adult
playground of China.
S&P/CS/J
SWATCH GROUP AG/THE-BR UHR VX 16.95 11.26 - -
Watches, jewelry, and accessories are coveted by
affluent Chinese.
CS
LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUI MC FP 16.57 11.22 2.38 A+
Portfolio of luxury brands in high demand for
affluent Chinese.
CS
NIKE INC -CL B NKE 23.63 12.76 1.23 AA- Nike Swoosh is a strong brand in China. S&P/CS/J
YUM! BRANDS INC YUM 20.04 11.61 2.48 BBB
More revenue and profit comes from China than
the U.S.
S&P/CS/J
CONSUMER STAPLES
These companies are providing the Chinese economy with new “must have” staple items.
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE CO CL 19.65 9.50 2.20 AA- Leading market share in China for Oral Care. S&P/CS
Procter & Gamble PG 17.86 9.18 3.10 AA-
Growing middle class provides opportunity for PG’s
brands.
S&P/CS
ENERGY
China is now the largest oil importer in the world and big oil will benefit from this demand.
EXXON MOBIL CORP XOM 11.80 16.91 2.72 AAA
World’s largest publicly-owned integrated oil
company. Low risk energy play.
S&P/CS
SCHLUMBERGER LTD SLB 15.16 15.20 1.45 AA-
Bellweather oil service firm benefits from Chinese
energy demand
S&P/CS
INDUSTRIALS
China needs lots of industrial and machinery equipment for its urbanization and infrastructure build.Air travel is also growing rapidly.
BOEING CO/THE BA 16.69 10.83 1.60 A Large demand for aircraft as China develops. S&P/CS
CATERPILLAR INC CAT 15.80 9.00 2.52 A
World’s largest producer of earthmoving equipment.
A credit rating.
S&P/CS
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE 14.49 9.00 3.21 AA+
Leader in Power & Water, Oil & Gas,Aviation,
Transportation and Energy Management.
S&P/CS
AMETEK AME 20.53 15.00 0.50 BBB
Well positioned in China for many advanced
manufacturing processes.
J/S&P
HEALTH CARE
A growing middle class and aging population demand more and better health care.
JOHNSON & JOHNSON JNJ 14.90 6.93 2.98 AAA
AAA rated blue chip selling Pharmaceuticals and
Medical Devices in China.
S&P/CS
MEDTRONIC INC MDT 14.21 7.94 1.99 AA-
Very diverse product line, strong cash flow,
valuation and dividend support.
S&P/CS
TECHNOLOGY
Technology and communication play key roles in modernizing an economy.
APPLE INC AAPL 11.77 18.37 2.34 AA+
Products are in big demand with growing middle
class.
J/S&P/CS
BAIDU INC - SPON ADR BIDU 29.78 25.25 - -
The Google of China has tremendous opportunity as
Internet becomes Ubiquitous.
S&P/CS
INTEL CORP INTC 12.54 7.68 3.78 A+
World’s largest microprocessor manufacturer has
majority of sales to Asia and Pacific.
S&P/CS
QUALCOMM INC QCOM 14.26 14.45 1.78 NR
QCOM technology in high demand for China’s
wireless telecommunications needs.
S&P/CS
MATERIALS
Infrastructure requires lots of materials. Diversified metals and mining firms are finding, mining and processing the metals and minerals needed to create China’s infrastructure.
RIO TINTO PLC-SPON ADR RIO 10.13 7.00 - A-
One of world’s largest miners of iron ore, industrial
minerals, aluminum and copper.
S&P/CS
ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL METALS & PICK - - - -
ETF provides broad exposure to global metal &
mining companies.
Definitions:
Forward P/E - Current stock price divided by EPS consensus estimate for the next four quarters.
Earnings Growth Estimate - Mean broker estimate of the compounded annual growth rate of the operating eps over the company’s next full business cycle (typically 3-5 years).
Dividend Yield - Trailing 12 month dividend per share divided by share price
Credit Rating - Rating assigned by Standard & Poor’s to the long term obligations of the issuer if repaid in the local currency of the issuer.