The Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Elmendorf presented on federal budget challenges including growing deficits, rising debt levels, and increasing spending on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare which will contribute to unsustainable fiscal policies if not addressed. The presentation included charts projecting the federal deficit, revenues and outlays as a percentage of GDP, federal debt held by the public compared to GDP, growth in major spending categories, unemployment rates, and the components of federal spending.
Presentation by Doug Elmendorf, Director, to the budget conference committee led by Chairman Paul Ryan of the House Budget Committee and Chairman Patty Murray of the Senate Budget Committee
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the American Business Conference.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, at the Economic Outlook Forum hosted by the NYU Stern Center for Global Economy and Business.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Association for Business Economics.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has decreased since August 2016, when the agency issued its previous estimates, primarily because mandatory spending is expected to be lower than earlier anticipated. However, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2017–2026 period is about the same as that reported in August.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
Presentation by Doug Elmendorf, Director, to the budget conference committee led by Chairman Paul Ryan of the House Budget Committee and Chairman Patty Murray of the Senate Budget Committee
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the American Business Conference.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, at the Economic Outlook Forum hosted by the NYU Stern Center for Global Economy and Business.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Association for Business Economics.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has decreased since August 2016, when the agency issued its previous estimates, primarily because mandatory spending is expected to be lower than earlier anticipated. However, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2017–2026 period is about the same as that reported in August.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Economists Club.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has decreased since August 2016, when the agency issued its previous estimates, primarily because mandatory spending is expected to be lower than earlier anticipated. However, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2017–2026 period is about the same as that reported in August.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, the deficit would decline in 2018 and then resume its upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has increased since January 2017, when the agency issued its previous estimates, because revenues are expected to be lower and mandatory spending is expected to be higher than earlier anticipated. Additionally, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2018–2027 period is about $700 billion more than reported in January.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
Presentation by Sam Papenfuss, Deputy Assistant Director for CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the National Association of State Auditors, Comptrollers and Treasurers annual conference.
Fiscal sustainability reporting by the US government - Regina Kearney, United...OECD Governance
This presentation was made by Regina Kearney, United States, at the 15th Annual OECD Public Sector Accruals Symposium held in Paris on 26-27 February 2015.
The Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Hospital Preparedness Program (HPP) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Public Health Emergency Preparedness Program (PHEP) operate on a five-year project period with five one-year budget periods. The budget periods do not align with the federal fiscal year.
BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX INCREASES 4% IN NOVEMBER
- INCREASES IN BOTH OIL AND GAS PUSH INDEX HIGHER -
An increase in both oil and gas prices drove the Bord Gáis Energy Index 4% higher for the month of November. A weakening of the euro due to uncertainty about the future of the single currency compounded the effect. The lingering threat of a double dip recession continues to be a major influence on the movements in the index.
The index, which now stands at 143, is 17% higher than it was in November 2010.
Presentation by David Arthur, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meeting.
In this presentation, CBO examines the size of Department of Defense (DoD) budgets over the 1980–2019 period. Accounting for differences in the size of the military, DoD’s base budget (which excludes war costs such as those for the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq) has increased substantially over that period in inflation-adjusted terms. CBO’s analysis of individual portions of DoD’s budget indicates that the cost increases are broad-based, including increases in personnel costs, operation and maintenance costs, and costs to develop and purchase weapon systems.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Economists Club.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has decreased since August 2016, when the agency issued its previous estimates, primarily because mandatory spending is expected to be lower than earlier anticipated. However, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2017–2026 period is about the same as that reported in August.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
In fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation’s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade, if current laws remained generally unchanged, the deficit would decline in 2018 and then resume its upward trajectory—the result of strong growth in spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people and rising interest payments on the government’s debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue collections. Those accumulating deficits would drive debt held by the public from its already high level up to its highest percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since shortly after World War II.
CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2017 has increased since January 2017, when the agency issued its previous estimates, because revenues are expected to be lower and mandatory spending is expected to be higher than earlier anticipated. Additionally, the current projection for the cumulative deficit for the 2018–2027 period is about $700 billion more than reported in January.
CBO’s economic forecast—which underlies its budget projections—indicates that under current law, economic growth over the next two years would remain close to the modest rate observed since the end of the recession in 2009. Nevertheless, economic growth would continue to outpace growth in potential (maximum sustainable) GDP and thus continue to reduce the amount of underused resources, or slack, in the economy. The result would be increases in hiring, employment, and wages, along with upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, output growth would be constrained by a relatively slow increase in the nation’s supply of labor.
Presentation by Sam Papenfuss, Deputy Assistant Director for CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at the National Association of State Auditors, Comptrollers and Treasurers annual conference.
Fiscal sustainability reporting by the US government - Regina Kearney, United...OECD Governance
This presentation was made by Regina Kearney, United States, at the 15th Annual OECD Public Sector Accruals Symposium held in Paris on 26-27 February 2015.
The Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Hospital Preparedness Program (HPP) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Public Health Emergency Preparedness Program (PHEP) operate on a five-year project period with five one-year budget periods. The budget periods do not align with the federal fiscal year.
BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX INCREASES 4% IN NOVEMBER
- INCREASES IN BOTH OIL AND GAS PUSH INDEX HIGHER -
An increase in both oil and gas prices drove the Bord Gáis Energy Index 4% higher for the month of November. A weakening of the euro due to uncertainty about the future of the single currency compounded the effect. The lingering threat of a double dip recession continues to be a major influence on the movements in the index.
The index, which now stands at 143, is 17% higher than it was in November 2010.
Presentation by David Arthur, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Southern Economic Association Annual Meeting.
In this presentation, CBO examines the size of Department of Defense (DoD) budgets over the 1980–2019 period. Accounting for differences in the size of the military, DoD’s base budget (which excludes war costs such as those for the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq) has increased substantially over that period in inflation-adjusted terms. CBO’s analysis of individual portions of DoD’s budget indicates that the cost increases are broad-based, including increases in personnel costs, operation and maintenance costs, and costs to develop and purchase weapon systems.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Seminar on Forecasting at George Washington University.
Under current law, CBO projects that economic activity will expand at a modest pace this year and then grow more slowly in subsequent years.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the National Association for Business Economics.
In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase, in relation to the size of the economy, for the first time since 2009, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates. If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years, CBO projects. Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level.
CBO anticipates that the economy will expand solidly this year and next. Increases in demand for goods and services are expected to reduce the quantity of underused labor and capital, or “slack,” in the economy—thereby encouraging greater participation in the labor force by reducing the unemployment rate and pushing up compensation. That reduction in slack will also push up inflation and interest rates. Over the following years, CBO projects, output will grow at a more modest pace, constrained by relatively slow growth in the nation’s supply of labor. Nevertheless, in those later years, output is anticipated to grow more quickly than it has during the past decade.
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, at the 2nd NABO-OECD Annual Conference of Asian Parliamentary Budget Officials.
Presentation by Daria Pelech, an analyst in CBO’s Health Analysis Division, at the Center for Health Insurance Reform McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Presentation by CBO analysts Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, and James Pearce, and Census Bureau research economist Jonathan Rothbaum at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Committee on Economic Statistics.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
Approaches to Estimating the Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
Federal Budget Challenges
1. Congressional Budget Office
Federal Budget Challenges
Presentation at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum
Douglas W. Elmendorf
Director
February 22, 2013
2. Total Federal Deficits or Surpluses
(Percentage of GDP)
Estimates from The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 (February 2013).
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
3. Total Federal Revenues and Outlays
(Percentage of GDP)
Estimates from The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 (February 2013).
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
4. Federal Debt Held by the Public
(Percentage of GDP)
Actual Projected
Estimates from The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 (February 2013).
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
5. Projected Growth in Major Federal Spending Categories
(Percentage of GDP)
Estimates from The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 (February 2013).
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
6. Unemployment Rate
(Percent)
Estimates from The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 (February 2013).
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
7. Components of Federal Spending
(Percentage of GDP)
Estimates from The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 (February 2013).
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE