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The 2016 Budget and Economic Outlook
The Congressional Budget Office presented its 2016 Budget and Economic Outlook, highlighting projected outlays and federal debts from 2016 to 2026. Total outlays are expected to increase by $2.5 trillion, with significant contributions from social security, major health care programs, and net interest. The presentation also includes projections for GDP growth, unemployment rates, and labor market trends.
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The 2016 Budget and Economic Outlook
- 1. Congressional Budget Office The2016 Budget and Economic Outlook Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics March 7, 2016 Keith Hall Director This presentation draws on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2016 to 2026 (January 2016), www.cbo.gov/publication/51129.
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- 3. 2CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE TotalDeficits or Surpluses Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
- 4. 3CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE FederalDebt Held by the Public Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
- 5. 4CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE TotalRevenues and Outlays Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
- 6. 5CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE TotalOutlays Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
- 7. 6CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Componentsof the Total Increase in Outlays in CBO’s Baseline Between 2016 and 2026 Total Increase in Outlays: $2.5 Trillion All Other Programs (17%) Net Interest (23%) Social Security (28%) Major Health Care Programs (32%)Medicare (20%) Other (12%)
- 8. 7CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE ProjectedDebt Held by the Public and Net Interest Billions of Dollars 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Net Interest (Left axis) Debt Held by the Public (Right axis)
- 9. 8CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE ProjectedOutlays in Major Budget Categories Percentage of Gross Domestic Product 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Social Security Major Health Care Programs Net Interest 5.9 5.2 2.5 Discretionary 6.6 Other Mandatory 3.0
- 10. 9CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE TotalRevenues Percentage of Gross Domestic Product 18.2 Average Revenues, 1966 to 2015 (17.4%) Total Revenues Actual Projected 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 0 5 10 15 20 25
- 11. 10CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Spendingand Revenues Projected in CBO’s Baseline, Compared With Actual Values in 1966 and 1991 Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
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- 13. 12CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Growthof Real Gross Domestic Product Percent, Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter
- 14. 13CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Ratesof Short- and Long-Term Unemployment Percent
- 15. 14CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE LaborForce Participation Rates Percent
- 16. 15CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE HourlyLabor Compensation Percentage Change
- 17. 16CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Inflation PercentageChange in PCE Price Indexes
- 18. 17CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE InterestRates on Treasury Securities Percent