The document provides a historical overview of global stock market performance over the past several decades from the 1960s to 2011. It notes that the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s brought economic and political turmoil, including high inflation, currency crises, two Gulf Wars, and two major stock market crashes. However, despite downturns, global stock markets provided positive returns overall for investors in the 1980s, 1990s, and late 1990s/2000s. The document concludes that while the next 20 years remain uncertain, investors can prepare by paying down debts, saving and investing prudently over the long run as history shows markets tend to rise over time.

1. MARKET COMMENTARY
An exclusive newsletter from
Mark J. Krygier, LL.B., CFP, Vice President & Portfolio Manager
BACK TO THE FUTURE!
Wake up – its 1981, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has finally hit new highs, set twelve
years ago in 1969 (excluding a brief mid-decade high). In 1969, after a post WWII bull market of
February 2011 about 20 years, you wanted to grow your retirement funds, but instead have suffered through twelve
Volume 12, Issue 2 years of no growth in your portfolio. During those 12 years you experienced two massive bear
markets that saw the “Dow” fall 35.9% in 1970, followed by a 45.1% drop in 1975. The ‘70s brings
the end of the Vietnam War, the Watergate crisis, which results in impeachment proceedings of the U.S. President, the Yom
Kippur War, and the Middle East Oil Embargo. In this decade, Canada’s resource-based stock market outperforms the U.S.
as well as other major world markets. The average globally diversified investor in 1981, after making money for 20 years
following the end of WWII, is disappointed, shell-shocked, and living with a fundamental mistrust of capital markets.
The 1980s bring high inflation, rising gold prices, rising real estate prices, the Savings & Loan crisis in the U.S., and
the October 1987 collapse in the global stock markets known as “Black Monday”. The ‘90s also were no stranger to
political and economic turmoil with Iraq invading Kuwait, which precipitated the first Gulf War, the collapse of the hot ‘80s
real estate market, the first World Trade Center bombing, Bre-X gold fortunes ending in fraud, while currencies globally
were in crisis mode, including currencies in Mexico, Russia and throughout Asia. Yet, despite all of this turmoil in the ‘80s
and ‘90s, stock markets give investors a bull market of almost 20 years. Finally, as we hit the late ‘90s and after another 20
years of good times, on the backs of global giants such as Microsoft, Home Depot, Walmart, Cisco, and back at home with
our darling Nortel, investors finally feel some confidence to really start investing and by 2000 the markets hit all-time highs.
Time to rise and shine – it’s February 2011, and bond funds are taking in record numbers of investment money from
the just-starting-to-retire baby boomers. Who can blame them? Once again investors have gone through the decade to
forget. The Dow is only now breaking through levels set over 10 years ago (excluding a brief mid-decade high). The ‘00s
bring two massive bear markets of over 30% each, the first with the tech market collapse, the 9/11 attack on the U.S., the
second Gulf War, record oil prices, and the second market collapse following the subprime mortgage crisis which ends in
the current global sovereign debt crisis. Once again, for the decade the resource-based Canadian stock market outperformed
the U.S. as well as the other major global markets. The average globally diversified investor in 2011 has mostly recovered
from the two bear markets, but is disappointed, shell-shocked, and living with a fundamental mistrust of capital markets.
Bottom line – how will the next 20 years unfold? For that we can only wait and see. In the meantime we can pay down our
debts, save and invest prudently, and ignore the market’s manic highs and the depressive lows, as history is on our side.
GLOBAL BENCHMARKS – To January 31, 2011 (Canadian $ Returns) – sourced from
Asset Class 1 Month 1 Year 3 Years Asset Class 1 Month 1 Year 3 Years
S&P/TSX 60 (Canada) 1.5% 23.2% 3.1% US$/CDN$ (1.0011) 0.3% -6.5% 0.0%
S&P 500 (US) 2.7% 14.3% -0.1% 10-year GOC Bond -0.9% 3.5% 5.6%
MSCI Europe 4.2% 4.3% -7.3% 5-year GOC Bond -0.1% 3.6% 5.1%
MSCI Emerging Mkts -2.5% 12.1% 0.9% 3-Month CDN T-Bill 0.1% 0.5% 1.2%
MSCI World 2.5% 9.3% -3.8%
Mark J. Krygier: T : 416-512-6441 E : mark.krygier@td.com Avital Pearlston: T : 416-512-6674 E: avital.pearlston@td.com
4950 Yonge St., 16th Floor, Toronto, ON M2N 6K1
The statements and statistics contained herein are based on material believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. This newsletter was prepared
by Mark Krygier who is a TD Waterhouse Investment Advisor and is for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale
of any investment fund, security or other product and does not provide individual, financial, legal, investment or tax advice. Please consult your own legal and tax advisor.
Particular investments or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual's objectives in consultation with the Investment Advisor. TD Waterhouse
Canada Inc. and its affiliates and related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered. TD Waterhouse Private
Investment Advice is a division of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc, a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. - Member CIPF.
TD Waterhouse is a trade-mark of The Toronto-Dominion Bank used under license.