The document summarizes the reaction of markets to a recent agreement by European leaders to address the sovereign debt crisis. It notes that stock prices rose significantly as investors were relieved by the three-point deal involving Greek debt relief and boosting the bailout fund. However, details remain unclear and challenges loom with the U.S. debt panel deadline approaching. Overall investors were in a relief rally but surprises can still occur as with sudden market moves or unexpected weather, much like the forecasting abilities of analysts and meteorologists.

1. Hyre Weekly Commentary
October 31, 2011
The Markets
After 14 summits in 21 months, have European leaders finally solved their sovereign debt
problem? Judging by the stock market’s reaction, you might think the answer is yes.
In marathon sessions last week, European leaders agreed on a new, three-point deal to stave off a
deeper debt crisis. The deal includes:
1) A commitment by banks and other private bondholders to accept a voluntary 50%
writedown on Greek government debt.
2) A boost in the lending power of the euro-zone bailout fund.
3) A 106 billion euro ($148 billion) recapitalization of European banks.
Source: MarketWatch
Even though details were still a bit sketchy, investors threw caution to the wind and bid up stock
prices. U.S. stock prices rose 3.8 percent last week and 14 percent for the month with just one
trading day left, according to Bloomberg.
With Europe’s debt crisis tempered for the moment, attention now turns to the U.S. On the
positive side, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.5 percent clip in the third quarter, which was the
fastest pace in a year. In addition, third-quarter earnings are still coming in strong as about 75
percent of the companies reporting so far have beaten expectations, according to Bloomberg.
Looming on the horizon, the congressional supercommittee has about one month left before
making its recommendations on how to cut at least $1.2 trillion from the federal budget. If the
supercommittee fails, then across the board budget cuts of a like amount would ensue.
As of last week, investors were happy to breathe a sigh of relief that Europe seems to have
dodged a disaster (at least for now) and the U.S. economy still has some life.
Data as of 10/28/11 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks) 3.8% 2.2% 8.6% 11.0% -1.4% 1.8%
DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) 6.9 -8.1 -4.3 16.7 -1.9 5.8
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.3 N/A 2.7 3.8 4.7 4.5
Gold (per ounce) 6.0 23.5 30.6 33.6 23.4 20.1
DJ-UBS Commodity Index 4.1 -7.1 2.7 5.6 -2.0 5.2
DJ Equity All REIT TR Index 6.5 7.9 10.9 19.3 -0.8 11.1
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend)
and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the
three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the
historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

2. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not
applicable.
THE WEATHER AND THE STOCK MARKET HAVE A LOT IN COMMON – they’re
both very unpredictable! This past weekend, the Northeast got walloped by a surprisingly strong
snowstorm that dumped as much as two feet of snow in parts of Massachusetts. Central Park in
New York City even set an October record with 1.3 inches of snow. And, this all happened
before Halloween!
Likewise, the stock market has a habit of surprising investors with its ability to rise or fall
dramatically in short periods of time. For example, remember the “Flash Crash?” On May 6,
2010, the U.S. stock market plunged for no apparent reason and briefly erased $862 billion from
stock values in less than 20 minutes, according to Bloomberg. It then quickly rebounded.
As it relates to weather, we always know what season we’re in. One look at the calendar tells us
whether its winter, spring, summer, or fall. And, depending on where you live, you have a pretty
good idea – based on history – of what to expect for each day’s temperature. But, just like the
Northeast experienced, you can have an “out of season” experience that messes up your best-laid
plans.
The stock market doesn’t have four seasons, but it does have bull and bear markets, which are
further divided into secular and cyclical. Market analysts have some general criteria that they use
to categorize the markets into these buckets. Yet, like the weather, you could be in a bull market,
but still have a nasty market drop that temporarily derails the path of the bull.
Bottom line, just like weather forecasters, market analysts may have a sense for general
conditions in the market, but surprises still happen.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really
no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather.”
--John Ruskin, leading English art critic of the Victorian era
Best regards,
Jim Hyre, CFP®
Registered Principal
P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would
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3. * The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in
general.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.
* The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.
* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by www.usagold.com.
* The DJ/AIG Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The
Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen
as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment
Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future
performance.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. mc101507
* This newsletter was prepared by PEAK for use by James Hyre, CFP®, registered principal
* If you would prefer not to receive this Weekly Newsletter, please contact our office via e-mail or mail your request to 2074 Arlington
Ave, Upper Arlington, OH 43221.
* The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments
referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that
the forgoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jim Hyre and not necessary those of RJFS or Raymond
James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a
solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security to herein. Tax or legal matters should be discussed with the appropriate
professional.
Jim Hyre, CFP®
Registered Principal
Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.
Member FINRA/SIPC
2074 Arlington Ave.
Upper Arlington, OH 43221
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