The document discusses the recent rally in commodity and equity markets after predictions of a 2016 US recession. It provides details on positive recent US economic data that has driven the rally, including upward revisions to Q4 GDP and better-than-expected employment numbers. However, it cautions that the global economic outlook remains uncertain, with risks including weak data from China and Japan and potential "Brexit." It argues that while recession may not have reached the US yet, economic tides can change rapidly.
The document discusses recent market and economic developments and their implications. It notes that while job growth has remained strong, the quality of jobs created has lagged. Total worker compensation has dropped significantly. Commodity prices, especially oil, have impacted markets. Views on precious metals prices like gold diverge, with some bullish but others like EQS bearish as they believe metals will decline if interest rates rise. Overall the document analyzes recent economic data and trader perspectives.
Could a turnaround last the distance for major markets? Hantec Markets
After a tumultuous period of trading on financial markets is a turning point about to be seen? If so, how long can it last? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities in the coming days.
Comex Technical Report for 31st Dec, 2013Alex Gray
This document contains market data and analysis for various commodities (gold, silver, copper, crude oil) from the Global Research Limited COMEX Report dated December 31, 2013. Key points include:
- Gold and silver prices fell overnight and were lower on December 31 amid stronger US data and rising global equities.
- Copper prices were little changed near a four-month high as the market awaited US pending home sales data.
- Crude oil futures rose slightly but settled down after disappointing US home sales figures raised economic recovery concerns.
- Technical support and resistance levels are provided for each commodity.
It is the high time to make the most of your surplus money with http://ow.ly/oTPnw,
invest with our tips and enjoy bigger profits on your small investment, Simply leave a contact no and email address or register at http://ow.ly/op1ii we will call you back and guide you.
US consumer data to drive forex majors this weekHantec Markets
Has the time of finally been called for US dollar outperformance? We discuss the implications of recent moves impacting on forex markets, equities and commodoties. What is the outlook for the coming days and the key factors to watch?
Gold and silver prices may rise due to weakness in the US dollar and ongoing US-China trade talks. Crude oil prices are supported by supply concerns from Saudi Arabia but US shale output may cap gains. Natural gas prices are mixed as winter demand winds down. Base metals on the LME were mostly higher with nickel leading gains. The report recommends buying MCX nickel for potential upside with support seen at 880 levels.
The document discusses recent market and economic developments and their implications. It notes that while job growth has remained strong, the quality of jobs created has lagged. Total worker compensation has dropped significantly. Commodity prices, especially oil, have impacted markets. Views on precious metals prices like gold diverge, with some bullish but others like EQS bearish as they believe metals will decline if interest rates rise. Overall the document analyzes recent economic data and trader perspectives.
Could a turnaround last the distance for major markets? Hantec Markets
After a tumultuous period of trading on financial markets is a turning point about to be seen? If so, how long can it last? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities in the coming days.
Comex Technical Report for 31st Dec, 2013Alex Gray
This document contains market data and analysis for various commodities (gold, silver, copper, crude oil) from the Global Research Limited COMEX Report dated December 31, 2013. Key points include:
- Gold and silver prices fell overnight and were lower on December 31 amid stronger US data and rising global equities.
- Copper prices were little changed near a four-month high as the market awaited US pending home sales data.
- Crude oil futures rose slightly but settled down after disappointing US home sales figures raised economic recovery concerns.
- Technical support and resistance levels are provided for each commodity.
It is the high time to make the most of your surplus money with http://ow.ly/oTPnw,
invest with our tips and enjoy bigger profits on your small investment, Simply leave a contact no and email address or register at http://ow.ly/op1ii we will call you back and guide you.
US consumer data to drive forex majors this weekHantec Markets
Has the time of finally been called for US dollar outperformance? We discuss the implications of recent moves impacting on forex markets, equities and commodoties. What is the outlook for the coming days and the key factors to watch?
Gold and silver prices may rise due to weakness in the US dollar and ongoing US-China trade talks. Crude oil prices are supported by supply concerns from Saudi Arabia but US shale output may cap gains. Natural gas prices are mixed as winter demand winds down. Base metals on the LME were mostly higher with nickel leading gains. The report recommends buying MCX nickel for potential upside with support seen at 880 levels.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting. While the US economy is expanding moderately, the global economy remains weak. The Fed signaled that it will raise rates when further improvement is seen in the labor market. Commodity markets declined after the meeting due to ongoing concerns about the global economy. The author remains bearish on oil and natural gas due to oversupply issues. Short positions in these sectors generated gains last week. The author will be monitoring US economic data and changes in the global supply/demand picture for signs of a reversal in prices.
FOMC, Advance GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls and Brexit all key this weekHantec Markets
It will be a crucial decision for the Federal Reserve this week as traders consider the prospect of a third straight rate cut. Consumer Confidence, Advance GDP and Non-farm Payrolls means that it is a jam packed week for the calendar. With Brexit uncertainty and the looming prospect of a UK general election also to impact, we are looking at a busy week for major markets and consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Political risk of a trade war continues to drive sentimentHantec Markets
Political risk remains key moving into what looks to be a quiet week on financial markets. How the issue of US trade tariffs continues to develop over the coming days will be key for sentiment. Will protectionist fears subside or proliferate? We look at the outlook for financial markets and impact on forex, equity indices and commodities.
Lots of under-currents this week. Is the economy expanding or is that expansion very moderate. How will the savings on cheaper gasoline help Christmas shopping and is OPEC behind the rout in crude oil? So many questions.
The document discusses the Greek debt crisis and its potential impacts. It notes that while Greece's debt issues are small compared to China's, a Greek default could still negatively impact the global economy and markets. It also summarizes that the author remains bullish on oil and refined products but bearish on natural gas due to oversupply issues. China's large equity market gains and margin debt are highlighted as a potential risk to monitor as well.
As traders return to their desks from their summer break we consider the prospects of the dollar int he coming week. Economic data makes a welcome return to switch focus away from the politics with Non-farm Payrolls topping the agenda. We consider the outlook for major forex, equities and commodities markets.
FOMC meeting crucial for forex and commoditiesHantec Markets
After the huge swing in positioning for the Fed to turn dovish, this week's meeting of the FOMC will be crucial for the medium term outlook on financial markets. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
Weekly commodity-report by epic research 11 march 2013Epic Daily Report
Gold prices were flat after US jobs data showed improved employment but not enough to change the Federal Reserve's stimulus plans. Palladium rose over 3% to a 19-month high on supply concerns and strong auto demand. Base metals declined ahead of the US jobs report, with copper falling due to increased stockpiles. Analysis of commodity charts for gold, silver, copper, and crude oil showed downward trends, with strategies to sell on rises.
Politics and major central banks are key this week Richard Perry
Politics and central bank is high on the agenda this week as markets continue to react to protectionist moves from Donald Trump, the Italian election over the weekend and look forward to four major central banks announcing their latest monetary policy decisions. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
The document provides a mid-year update on the global economic environment and investment outlook. It notes that the world is undergoing significant changes and paradigm shifts, as evidenced by unprecedented events like negative yielding global debt and Brexit. Central banks have pushed monetary policy to its limits, and are now using currency devaluation over interest rates to influence growth. This unstable macroeconomic environment makes forecasts difficult. The document recommends favoring large cap domestic stocks over small/mid caps or fixed income, and suggests the housing market may strengthen as interest rates remain low.
The US Treasury Secretary said new Trump administration policies will likely have a limited impact in 2017, weakening expectations of inflation and rate hikes. This caused the US dollar and bond yields to fall, boosting gold prices. Asian stock markets declined as a weaker US dollar may hurt Asian export competitiveness. Commodity prices were mixed with gold near highs but oil pulling back after gains.
Trade negotiations and renewed dollar strength is key this weekHantec Markets
The weekly outlook report provides an overview of key economic events and indicators for the coming week, as well as analysis of currency, equity, commodity, and bond markets. Key events include Eurozone flash PMIs on Thursday and US existing home sales data on Tuesday. The report notes renewed US dollar strength and risks to growth from an escalating US-China trade dispute. It recommends using rallies in sterling and the euro as selling opportunities given political and growth risks.
The document provides a daily report on commodity market news and analysis from CapitalStars Financial Research Pvt., Ltd. Key highlights include gold prices rising as the US dollar weakened following dovish comments from the US Federal Reserve chair. Copper and nickel prices also increased as the US dollar dipped from two-week highs. Oil prices ticked higher due to optimism around the G20 meeting but gains were capped by rising US crude inventories. The report also provides technical analysis and recommendations for various commodities trading on the MCX, including a recommendation to sell MCX Crude oil futures below 3570 levels.
The FOMC minutes revealed disagreement among members about whether to raise rates in September. This uncertainty is causing volatility in markets. While some signals point to a rate hike, others suggest the Fed may pause due to concerns over a slowing Chinese economy and its potential impact on the US. Commodities have continued declining, suggesting weakness in the global economy. The Fed faces challenges in responding to economic troubles abroad while the US risks being impacted as well.
Brexit, G20 and Italian budget key factors this weekHantec Markets
The politics of how the UK is set up to leave the European Union remains a key driver of negative sentiment on financial markets. Add in the slowing global growth trends, the US/China trade dispute and the argument over the Italian budget and there are plenty of reasons to be negative. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities.
The document discusses Japan's deteriorating financial situation, with a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 200%, the highest in the world besides Zimbabwe. This has led S&P to downgrade Japan's credit rating, raising concerns that other countries like the US could face similar downgrades if deficits are not reduced. Rising debt is a major global problem with nations having to pay higher interest rates, making deficits harder to manage.
29 February 2016 DAVID KERLY'S GOLD-SILVER-SHARES and MARKETSDavid Kerly
- Gold rose 9.3% in February while silver gained 3.1% after an initial 11.8% rise.
- Demand for gold-backed ETFs was strong in February, reflecting a shift in investor psychology towards gold as a safe haven.
- Central bank officials tried to reassure markets that the global economy is healthy, but acknowledged more needs to be done to boost slowing growth.
- Stock markets may see further short-term rallies after recent declines, but underlying bearish trends remain in place.
- Derivative exposure at major banks like Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and Citibank poses substantial risks if market volatility increases sharply.
Brexit uncertainties to drive continued sterling volatilityHantec Markets
Brexit remains a key uncertainty for UK assets, whilst the Italian budget is also important in Europe, and developments in the US/China remain crucial for risk appetite. We take a look at the implications that these factors are all having on forex, equities and commodities markets.
Our fundamental and technical analysis indicate higher silver levels are coming.. possibly outperforming gold 3-1.
*Short-term and long-term price projections for Silver
*Supply / Demand charts and historical demand
*How Silver can protect your assets from Hyperinflation
*How to protect yourself against economic uncertainty
*Price projections
- The document discusses how Labor Day may mark the end of summer but not the end of market volatility this year. Uncertainty around China, the Fed, commodities, and equities is fueling high volatility.
- Bill Gross, a prominent bond investor, recommends cash or near-cash investments due to ongoing uncertainty and risk. His comments add to concerns that ordinary investors may reduce market exposure.
- Uncertainty around China, the Fed interest rate decision, Europe, and Japan means volatility is likely to continue through the autumn. The document argues this "volatility heat wave" is just beginning.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting. While the US economy is expanding moderately, the global economy remains weak. The Fed signaled that it will raise rates when further improvement is seen in the labor market. Commodity markets declined after the meeting due to ongoing concerns about the global economy. The author remains bearish on oil and natural gas due to oversupply issues. Short positions in these sectors generated gains last week. The author will be monitoring US economic data and changes in the global supply/demand picture for signs of a reversal in prices.
FOMC, Advance GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls and Brexit all key this weekHantec Markets
It will be a crucial decision for the Federal Reserve this week as traders consider the prospect of a third straight rate cut. Consumer Confidence, Advance GDP and Non-farm Payrolls means that it is a jam packed week for the calendar. With Brexit uncertainty and the looming prospect of a UK general election also to impact, we are looking at a busy week for major markets and consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Political risk of a trade war continues to drive sentimentHantec Markets
Political risk remains key moving into what looks to be a quiet week on financial markets. How the issue of US trade tariffs continues to develop over the coming days will be key for sentiment. Will protectionist fears subside or proliferate? We look at the outlook for financial markets and impact on forex, equity indices and commodities.
Lots of under-currents this week. Is the economy expanding or is that expansion very moderate. How will the savings on cheaper gasoline help Christmas shopping and is OPEC behind the rout in crude oil? So many questions.
The document discusses the Greek debt crisis and its potential impacts. It notes that while Greece's debt issues are small compared to China's, a Greek default could still negatively impact the global economy and markets. It also summarizes that the author remains bullish on oil and refined products but bearish on natural gas due to oversupply issues. China's large equity market gains and margin debt are highlighted as a potential risk to monitor as well.
As traders return to their desks from their summer break we consider the prospects of the dollar int he coming week. Economic data makes a welcome return to switch focus away from the politics with Non-farm Payrolls topping the agenda. We consider the outlook for major forex, equities and commodities markets.
FOMC meeting crucial for forex and commoditiesHantec Markets
After the huge swing in positioning for the Fed to turn dovish, this week's meeting of the FOMC will be crucial for the medium term outlook on financial markets. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
Weekly commodity-report by epic research 11 march 2013Epic Daily Report
Gold prices were flat after US jobs data showed improved employment but not enough to change the Federal Reserve's stimulus plans. Palladium rose over 3% to a 19-month high on supply concerns and strong auto demand. Base metals declined ahead of the US jobs report, with copper falling due to increased stockpiles. Analysis of commodity charts for gold, silver, copper, and crude oil showed downward trends, with strategies to sell on rises.
Politics and major central banks are key this week Richard Perry
Politics and central bank is high on the agenda this week as markets continue to react to protectionist moves from Donald Trump, the Italian election over the weekend and look forward to four major central banks announcing their latest monetary policy decisions. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
The document provides a mid-year update on the global economic environment and investment outlook. It notes that the world is undergoing significant changes and paradigm shifts, as evidenced by unprecedented events like negative yielding global debt and Brexit. Central banks have pushed monetary policy to its limits, and are now using currency devaluation over interest rates to influence growth. This unstable macroeconomic environment makes forecasts difficult. The document recommends favoring large cap domestic stocks over small/mid caps or fixed income, and suggests the housing market may strengthen as interest rates remain low.
The US Treasury Secretary said new Trump administration policies will likely have a limited impact in 2017, weakening expectations of inflation and rate hikes. This caused the US dollar and bond yields to fall, boosting gold prices. Asian stock markets declined as a weaker US dollar may hurt Asian export competitiveness. Commodity prices were mixed with gold near highs but oil pulling back after gains.
Trade negotiations and renewed dollar strength is key this weekHantec Markets
The weekly outlook report provides an overview of key economic events and indicators for the coming week, as well as analysis of currency, equity, commodity, and bond markets. Key events include Eurozone flash PMIs on Thursday and US existing home sales data on Tuesday. The report notes renewed US dollar strength and risks to growth from an escalating US-China trade dispute. It recommends using rallies in sterling and the euro as selling opportunities given political and growth risks.
The document provides a daily report on commodity market news and analysis from CapitalStars Financial Research Pvt., Ltd. Key highlights include gold prices rising as the US dollar weakened following dovish comments from the US Federal Reserve chair. Copper and nickel prices also increased as the US dollar dipped from two-week highs. Oil prices ticked higher due to optimism around the G20 meeting but gains were capped by rising US crude inventories. The report also provides technical analysis and recommendations for various commodities trading on the MCX, including a recommendation to sell MCX Crude oil futures below 3570 levels.
The FOMC minutes revealed disagreement among members about whether to raise rates in September. This uncertainty is causing volatility in markets. While some signals point to a rate hike, others suggest the Fed may pause due to concerns over a slowing Chinese economy and its potential impact on the US. Commodities have continued declining, suggesting weakness in the global economy. The Fed faces challenges in responding to economic troubles abroad while the US risks being impacted as well.
Brexit, G20 and Italian budget key factors this weekHantec Markets
The politics of how the UK is set up to leave the European Union remains a key driver of negative sentiment on financial markets. Add in the slowing global growth trends, the US/China trade dispute and the argument over the Italian budget and there are plenty of reasons to be negative. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities.
The document discusses Japan's deteriorating financial situation, with a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 200%, the highest in the world besides Zimbabwe. This has led S&P to downgrade Japan's credit rating, raising concerns that other countries like the US could face similar downgrades if deficits are not reduced. Rising debt is a major global problem with nations having to pay higher interest rates, making deficits harder to manage.
29 February 2016 DAVID KERLY'S GOLD-SILVER-SHARES and MARKETSDavid Kerly
- Gold rose 9.3% in February while silver gained 3.1% after an initial 11.8% rise.
- Demand for gold-backed ETFs was strong in February, reflecting a shift in investor psychology towards gold as a safe haven.
- Central bank officials tried to reassure markets that the global economy is healthy, but acknowledged more needs to be done to boost slowing growth.
- Stock markets may see further short-term rallies after recent declines, but underlying bearish trends remain in place.
- Derivative exposure at major banks like Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan and Citibank poses substantial risks if market volatility increases sharply.
Brexit uncertainties to drive continued sterling volatilityHantec Markets
Brexit remains a key uncertainty for UK assets, whilst the Italian budget is also important in Europe, and developments in the US/China remain crucial for risk appetite. We take a look at the implications that these factors are all having on forex, equities and commodities markets.
Our fundamental and technical analysis indicate higher silver levels are coming.. possibly outperforming gold 3-1.
*Short-term and long-term price projections for Silver
*Supply / Demand charts and historical demand
*How Silver can protect your assets from Hyperinflation
*How to protect yourself against economic uncertainty
*Price projections
- The document discusses how Labor Day may mark the end of summer but not the end of market volatility this year. Uncertainty around China, the Fed, commodities, and equities is fueling high volatility.
- Bill Gross, a prominent bond investor, recommends cash or near-cash investments due to ongoing uncertainty and risk. His comments add to concerns that ordinary investors may reduce market exposure.
- Uncertainty around China, the Fed interest rate decision, Europe, and Japan means volatility is likely to continue through the autumn. The document argues this "volatility heat wave" is just beginning.
The document provides an analysis of current economic and market conditions in the United States and globally. It notes that while US stock markets are hovering near all-time highs, the strength of the dollar has declined this year, reducing returns for US investors. It discusses ongoing uncertainty related to the US presidential election and Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The document examines conditions and outlooks across various commodity markets including crude oil, natural gas, precious metals and cattle.
The document discusses recent volatility in asset prices in 2015 and provides an analysis of various asset performance over the past 15+ years from 1999 to early 2015. Some key points:
- Precious metals like gold and silver have significantly outperformed stocks and currencies over this time period. Gold is the top performing asset.
- The US dollar lost over 75% of its value against gold in this time, while stocks like the Dow lost over 60% of their value against gold.
- Volatility has increased in 2015 beyond expectations. The author recommends owning physical gold and silver as a hedge against volatility in paper assets and currencies.
- A strike at US oil refineries may further increase oil price volatility in
The document discusses gold seasonality patterns and predictions for gold prices over the remainder of 2009 and into 2010-2012. It notes that gold has historically risen between mid-August and the end of the year, averaging 11.4% gains. The document predicts gold will reach $1240/ounce by early 2010 and could reach $1620-2450/ounce in the next 12-36 months. It also discusses factors like dollar weakness, inflation, and economic uncertainty as supportive of higher gold prices in the medium term.
The document discusses gold seasonality patterns and predictions for gold prices over the remainder of 2009 and into 2010-2012. It notes that gold has historically risen between mid-August and the end of the year, averaging 11.4% gains. The document predicts gold will reach $1240/ounce by early 2010 and could reach $1620-2450/ounce in the next 12-36 months. It also discusses factors like dollar weakness, inflation, and economic uncertainty as supportive of higher gold prices in the medium term.
The document discusses the impacts and implications of Brexit on global markets and the economy. It argues that while markets have largely recovered from the initial shock of Brexit, underlying economic issues remain. Central banks have helped prop up markets through monetary policies like low interest rates and liquidity injections. However, Brexit highlighted growing unrest with the current economic system as inequality and low-wage jobs increase. The long-term stability of the global economy remains precarious as repeated shocks continue to weaken its foundations, similar to a unstable game of Jenga. Precious metals like gold benefited as a safe haven investment following Brexit. The full consequences of Brexit will only become clear as the UK's exit negotiations with the EU progress.
1) Greece passed austerity measures to receive EU aid and avoid default, relieving investors and sending markets soaring last week.
2) Positive manufacturing and earnings reports from companies like Nike also contributed to the market gains.
3) Sentiment can change quickly in financial markets, as the market had fallen for seven of the previous eight weeks but then surged last week.
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides views on specific regions including the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, and other emerging markets. It notes recent price movements and economic indicators. For most areas it expresses a negative or cautious outlook given ongoing challenges and risks in the global economy.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Nicola Arnold
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides perspectives on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. It notes that central bank actions have inflated asset prices temporarily but that the large US national debt poses long-term sustainability issues. For Japan, it expects more stimulus measures to weaken the Yen further. The outlook is mostly negative given continued risks from high debt levels and prospects for currency depreciation from monetary easing.
The Henley Group's Market Outlook - May 2013Tania Scott
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, and commodities. For equities, it provides a positive assessment of Japan due to new stimulus measures weakening the Yen but remains negative on the US due to large national debt and lack of political will to address long-term fiscal issues. It also remains neutral on Japan, expecting more stimulus and monetary easing to revive the economy under a new Prime Minister and central bank Governor. The outlook expresses a negative view on fixed income given low yields compared to potential future inflation, but sees some opportunities in emerging market bonds in the short-term. Property prices are seen
The henley group's market outlook may 13Gary Lansdown
The document provides an outlook on global markets from Henley for May 2013. It discusses developments in various asset classes including equities, currencies, fixed income, property, commodities, and alternative investments. For equities, it provides views on the US, Japan, UK, Europe, Australia, ASEAN, China, India, and other emerging markets. Key points discussed include the weakening Japanese yen, volatility in Japanese government bonds, mixed signals in the US and European economies, and recovering housing markets in the US and UK. Overall it maintains a mostly negative outlook due to ongoing debt and economic challenges while also highlighting some positive signs in selected areas.
The document provides an analysis of recent market and economic events from the perspective of an investment advisory firm. It discusses factors like low oil and gas prices, consumer spending, Chinese economic slowdown, European debt issues, and upcoming US Federal Reserve decisions that could impact markets. While remaining cautiously optimistic, the firm believes markets may continue fluctuating but eventually retest recent lows unless economic data improves globally. In summary, the document analyzes recent market movements in light of economic news and provides the firm's outlook on whether current conditions can sustain an upward trend.
The document provides an end-of-year summary and outlook for 2017 from an investment manager. It discusses:
1) Continued political turmoil and uncertainty in Europe that contributed to volatility in currency and bond markets.
2) Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates in 2017 and that Janet Yellen will not be reappointed as chair.
3) Anticipation that proposed US infrastructure spending and tax cuts under Trump will boost the economy and US dollar.
- Stocks ended 2013 strongly but started 2014 weakly, dropping on the first trading day. However, one day trends do not determine the year's direction.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 3% for the first time since 2011 but higher rates have not negatively impacted stocks so far.
- Gold rebounded sharply against the normal pattern of declining with higher rates, which may indicate anticipation of future inflation.
- Chinese and emerging market stocks declined on weak economic data, raising concerns about the health of the global recovery.
The document provides a prediction for the stock market and Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2014. It analyzes several indicators that could affect the market such as inflation rates, gold prices, and the Federal Reserve's tapering of quantitative easing. Based on these factors, the document predicts that inflation will increase in 2014, gold prices will rise, and the Dow Jones will decline, resulting in an overall bearish market.
Everyone enjoys a nice surprise - especially the ones that cause you to grin ear to ear, smile non-stop and wish the moment will never end.
There can also be bad surprises - and these are not the least bit enjoyable.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we explain how governments are about to experience a bad surprise. And their reaction to these surprises will be significantly higher taxes for everyone.
There will also be a good surprise - adjusting your portfolios in anticipation of the bad surprise will allow you to not only preserve your capital, but also have you grinning ear to ear.
We invite you to read more.
This document discusses the Cubs winning the World Series in 2016 and draws parallels to economic events. It argues that just because something hasn't happened for a long time, like the Cubs winning or a depression in the US economy, does not mean it cannot happen. It notes that the Cubs victory was a "Black Swan" event and that Black Swans, or unexpected events, are real. It also suggests that the long economic expansion in the US could be nearing its end, and a recession may be around the corner, acting as a "Black Swan" event for the economy. The document then summarizes commentary on precious metals markets, interest rates, and global debt levels and their implications for the price of gold.
1) The document discusses unicorns, which are private companies valued at $1 billion or more. Venture capitalists seek these large investments to offset failures and hit "home runs."
2) Unicorns fuel investor imagination and optimism, which can boost markets beyond just the tech sector. Periods of strong unicorn activity, like the 1990s, correspond to broad market rallies.
3) While some see current unicorn valuations as overextended, continued private funding of companies to grow beyond $1 billion valuations may sustain optimism and growth across many sectors.
This document provides a weekly newsletter on commodity market signals and analysis from EQS Capital Management. It summarizes recent jobs and economic data and discusses its implications. The main points are:
1) The latest jobs report showed stronger than expected job growth, but digging deeper reveals many of the new jobs are low-paying, part-time roles. This calls into question how much the data really indicates economic strength.
2) Commodity prices fell last week on signs of increased supply and weaker demand outlook. Oil inventories rose again and production increases are outpacing expectations of declines.
3) Natural gas prices also declined as inventories hit record levels for the time of year. Mild weather forecasts suggest storage
Spoofing involves placing bids or offers with the intent to cancel them before execution to manipulate markets for profit. A recent criminal case in the US found Michael Coscia guilty of spoofing in futures markets using computer algorithms. The document discusses how spoofing works by placing large orders to influence prices and then canceling them to profit from the resulting price movement. It notes regulators are trying to crack down on deceptive trading practices like spoofing but that traders will always look for ways to gain an advantage, similar to athletes using performance-enhancing drugs.
- Three tech companies - Google, Amazon, and Microsoft - reported strong earnings which led to a $100 billion increase in their combined market capitalization.
- The document discusses speculative valuations and bubbles in certain sectors like tech, pharmaceuticals, and biotech that have been fueled by low interest rates and stimulus seeking growth.
- Both oil and natural gas prices declined during the week as inventories rose more than expected and demand remains weak despite stimulus measures.
- The document discusses the Federal Reserve's failure to raise interest rates at its September and November meetings, leaving the economy and markets in limbo without clear direction.
- It argues the Fed is in a difficult position, as raising rates too early could damage the economy, but continuing low rates risks creating bubbles and losing credibility.
- The author believes rates will need to stay very low, possibly until 2020-2021, to avoid pushing the US economy into a prolonged period of stagnation like Japan experienced.
- The rest of the document covers brief movements in the oil and natural gas markets in response to supply data and bargain buying.
This document provides an analysis of recent market movements and economic factors. It summarizes that the recent rally in US equities could make October the strongest month of the year. It also discusses that irrational behavior by markets and investors has driven prices rather than economic fundamentals. Specific companies like Walmart are seen as reflecting the broader economic challenges of slowing demand and rising costs. The document concludes by acknowledging the irrational forces at play in global markets and economies.
- The document discusses upcoming Q3 earnings reports and their importance for providing fundamental insights into global supply and demand trends. It notes markets have been volatile due to uncertainty, but earnings reports will help reduce uncertainty by revealing actual profit levels.
- It also summarizes the recent rise in oil prices driven by falling rig counts and geopolitical concerns, but notes inventory levels remain high and further gains may be limited. For natural gas, it discusses oversupply issues and low prices but signs the downward trend may be reversing.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to not raise interest rates at their most recent meeting, effectively continuing their "Groundhog Day" of keeping rates near zero since 2008. This created more uncertainty for markets. The author argues the Fed lacks clear direction and their inaction implies greater risks to the economy. Markets now do not expect a rate hike until March 2016 at the earliest. The document also discusses bearish factors for oil prices despite an earlier inventory draw, as total inventories and days of demand coverage rose significantly, indicating oversupply.
The document summarizes and analyzes recent economic data and events that impact commodity markets. It discusses:
- The July US jobs report which showed 215,000 jobs added and unemployment at 5.3%, a result that was neither strongly positive nor negative. This leaves uncertainty around the timing of the Fed's first rate hike.
- Comments from an Atlanta Fed president supporting a September rate hike if data holds.
- Implications for commodity markets, including that oil and natural gas prices declined last week while uncertainty persists over the Fed and US dollar.
- Upcoming seasonal trends that may lead to natural gas price increases in the next few months.
This weekly newsletter discusses commodity market trends and provides trading signals. It summarizes that commodities prices continue to weaken due to slowing global growth, especially in China, which is hurting demand. Commodity prices often decline before recessions, so the markets may be signaling an increased recession risk. Short positions are recommended for crude oil, gasoline, diesel and natural gas based on supply/demand fundamentals and technical factors like prices breaching psychological barriers. The dollar's strength is also cited as a bearish influence for commodity prices.
The document summarizes the key points of the Iran nuclear deal reached between Iran and six world powers. The deal will lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbing its nuclear program. This will open up Iranian oil reserves to the global market, estimated to increase supply by 500,000 barrels per day. It will also allow Iran to sell natural gas. The increased supply of oil and gas from Iran is expected to put downward pressure on prices. While the deal could face opposition, it represents a major shift in opening up Iran's economy after years of isolation.
The document discusses recent volatility in commodity markets driven by global macroeconomic and geopolitical news. It notes that industrial metals like iron ore have fallen sharply due to uncertainty around Chinese demand. It summarizes that China's efforts to prop up its stock market are delaying an inevitable correction, which could significantly impact global commodity demand. The document also cites bearish supply factors for energy markets like the potential resumption of Iranian oil exports. Overall it maintains a bearish outlook across commodities given demand-side uncertainties and resilient supply.
The document discusses the impact of Greece voting "no" to accepting the latest bailout package from European creditors. It summarizes that Greece rejecting the deal has introduced uncertainty that is pressuring commodity prices lower. Specifically, it recommends staying clear of oil and product exposures while markets digest the implications of Greece and potential contagion. It also notes that China has taken actions to support its stock market, which EQS was aware of even before the Greek vote.
The document discusses millennials and their impact on the economy. It notes that millennials make up 25% of the US population and represent over $1 trillion in spending. As a large and unique generation, millennials were shaped by different life experiences than previous generations. However, it is difficult to generalize about millennials' characteristics and how they will impact areas like spending, saving, and investing. The document concludes by apologizing for how hard millennials are to understand and manage.