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Fashion Forecasting
‘The future is here, its just not very well distributed.’ William Gibson, science fiction writer
FASHION FORECASTING
Forecasting 
 Process of making predictions of the future 
based on past and present data and analysis of 
trends. 
Fashion Forecasting 
 foreseeing fashion trends and predicting 
those trends early enough to allow time for 
production to meet the consumer demand.
 focuses on upcoming trends 
 The textile segment leads in recognizing 
fashion directions because of the time 
required for textile design and development.
 Textile designers work at least 18 months 
ahead of the schedule for products to hit the 
market.
 The fashion forecasting
process includes the basic
steps of :
 understanding the vision of
the business and profile of
target customers,
 collecting information about
available merchandise,
 preparing information,
 determining trends, and
 choosing merchandise
appropriate for the
company and target
customer.
FASHION FORECASTING
Aims:
 To provide you with an
understanding
of what trend forecasting is
and how organizations use
this information
 To examine how trends
evolve and
how they are tracked.
Objectives
To enable you to:
 Undertake research & analysis by
identifying and tracking fashion trends
 Apply knowledge of fashion
forecasting
to understand how trends evolve and
are
interpreted by industry
Synchronicity
 Common themes
shown on catwalks
around the world.
 Coincidence?
 Collaboration?
Fashion Forecasting
 “Trends are profits waiting to happen”
Martin Raymond 2009
Versace scarf prints for AW12 Nelly Rodi
 For mainstream brands,
timing is essential
 Right product,
Right place, Right time
FASHION TRENDS
Trend
 The behavior of large group of people, 
that is accepted and followed
extensively for a period of time.
Fashion Trends
 The direction of movement of public
acceptance of color, texture, and 
silhouette in fashion.
 Newest styles and silhouettes
 Important colors for upcoming seasons
 Newest developments in the fiber and 
fabric markets
Trend forecasters= lifestyle detectives
 Constant vigilance
 Monitoring current
trends & projecting
forward.
 Observing evolution of
trends.
 Detecting shifts in
attitudes & mindsets.
 Spotting looks or
lifestyles than run
against the norm.
Fashion Forecasting
 Stylesight
 Nelly Rodi
 WGSN
 Peclers
 Carlin
 Promostyl
 Trend Union
 Textiles View
 Stylus
 Mudpie
 LSN
 Future Laboratory
 Books cost over £1000 each & online subscription starts around £5000
pa
Fashion Forecasting
Fashion Forecasting
Fashion Forecasting
D Squared AW11 Topshop AW11
** Accurate forecasting makes it possibleAccurate forecasting makes it possible
for the fashion industry segments tofor the fashion industry segments to
prepare for and meet consumer demandprepare for and meet consumer demand
with products that will be accepted andwith products that will be accepted and
purchased.purchased.
* Keen worldwide competition increases* Keen worldwide competition increases
the importance of accurate trendthe importance of accurate trend
identification.identification.
THE IMPORTANCE OFTHE IMPORTANCE OF
FORECASTINGFORECASTING
• Fashion designersFashion designers
• Fashion merchandisersFashion merchandisers
• Yarn colors or swatches areYarn colors or swatches are
sent to designers andsent to designers and
merchandisers to plan theirmerchandisers to plan their
color stories and purchasecolor stories and purchase
fabrics.fabrics.
WHO IS INVOLVED IN FORECASTING?WHO IS INVOLVED IN FORECASTING?
Long term forecasting
 Long-term forecasting is the process of
analyzing and evaluating trends that can be
identified by scanning a variety of sources
for information.
 It is a fashion which lasts over two years.
 When scanning the market and the
consumers, fashion forecasters must follow
demographics of certain areas, both urban
and suburban, as well as examine the
impact on retail and its consumers due to the
economy, political system, environment, and
culture.
 Long-term forecasting seeks to identify:
 major changes in international and
domestic demographics,
 shifts in the fashion industry along with
market structures, consumer expectations,
 values, and impulsion to buy,
 new developments in technology and
science, and
 shifts in the economic, political, and
cultural alliances between certain
countries.
 There are many specialized marketing
consultants that focus on long-term
forecasting and attend trade shows and
other events that notify the industry on
what is to come.
Long term forecasting
Short term forecasting
 Short-term forecasting focuses on current
events both domestically and internationally as
well as pop culture in order to identify possible
trends that can be communicated to the
customer through the seasonal color palette,
fabric, and silhouette stories.
 It gives fashion a modern twist to a classic look
that intrigues our eyes.
 Some important areas to follow when scanning
the environment are: current events, art, sports,
science and technology.
 Short-term forecasting can also be considered
fad forecasting.
* Standard Color of Textile Dictionnaire* Standard Color of Textile Dictionnaire
* Pantone, Inc.* Pantone, Inc.
* International Color Authority* International Color Authority
* The Color Box* The Color Box
* The Color Marketing Group* The Color Marketing Group
* Concepts in Color* Concepts in Color
* Huepoint* Huepoint
•Color Portfolio, Inc.Color Portfolio, Inc.
Color services: Fashion and textileColor services: Fashion and textile
industry professionals who meet twice aindustry professionals who meet twice a
year to pool their knowledge of coloryear to pool their knowledge of color
cycles and preferences and to projectcycles and preferences and to project
color trends for the future.color trends for the future.
Examples of color servicesExamples of color services
 Each retailer's trend forecasting varies and is
mainly dependent upon whether the
company is a wholesale brand or private
label developer. "Every season, there are
hundreds of designers showing breathtaking
collections that the average consumer will
never see.
 What does matter is who sees them—the in-
house designers and buyers at fast fashion
retailers, people who are paying close
attention, identifying and predicting which
styles, patterns and cuts will appeal to the
average woman.
Responsibility for trend
forecasting
 Larger companies such as Forever 21
have their own trend departments where
they follow the styles, fabrics, and colors
for the upcoming seasons.
 This can also be referred to as vertical
integration.
 A company with its own trend department
has a better advantage than those who do
not because its developers are able to
work together to create a unified look for
their sales floor.
 Each seasonal collection offered by a
product developer is the result of trend
research focused on the target market it
has defined for itself.
Responsibility for trend
forecasting
Responsibility for
trend forecasting
 A merchandiser also plays a key role
in the direction of upcoming trends.
 Different from developers,
merchandisers have much more
experience in buying and are
knowledgeable in what consumers
will be looking for.
THE PROCESS
ACTIVITIES IN FASHIONACTIVITIES IN FASHION
FORECASTINGFORECASTING
 Making and reportingMaking and reporting
predictionspredictions
 Coordinating informationCoordinating information
from fiber, yarn, andfrom fiber, yarn, and
apparel companies, andapparel companies, and
textile shows worldwidetextile shows worldwide
 Analyzing the fashionAnalyzing the fashion
press, visiting the world’spress, visiting the world’s
fashion centers, andfashion centers, and
observing fashion leadersobserving fashion leaders
 Conducting marketingConducting marketing
researchresearch
 Consumer research
• Surveys by telephone or mail to
determine income levels,
lifestyles, fashion preferences,
and shopping habits
• Consumer focus groups to
discuss the pros and cons of
currently offered merchandise
• In-store informal interviewing to
assess what customers like and
dislike
ACTIVITIES IN FASHIONACTIVITIES IN FASHION
FORECASTINGFORECASTING
 Conducting marketingConducting marketing
research (cont.)research (cont.)
 Market researchMarket research
• Study of marketStudy of market
conditionsconditions
• Study consumerStudy consumer
lifestyleslifestyles
• Study of currentStudy of current
events, the arts,events, the arts,
and the mood ofand the mood of
the publicthe public
ACTIVITIES IN FASHIONACTIVITIES IN FASHION
FORECASTINGFORECASTING
 Conducting marketingConducting marketing
research (cont.)research (cont.)
 Sales researchSales research
• Evaluation ofEvaluation of
previous sales trendsprevious sales trends
• Rising salesRising sales
• Declining salesDeclining sales
• Weak salesWeak sales
ACTIVITIES IN FASHIONACTIVITIES IN FASHION
FORECASTINGFORECASTING
 CConducting marketingonducting marketing
research (cont.)research (cont.)
 Comparison shoppingComparison shopping
• Current popular designerCurrent popular designer
collectionscollections
• Review of fashionReview of fashion
publications, catalogs,publications, catalogs,
websiteswebsites
• Observation of “street”Observation of “street”
fashions and celebrityfashions and celebrity
wardrobeswardrobes
ACTIVITIES IN FASHIONACTIVITIES IN FASHION
FORECASTINGFORECASTING
SOURCES OF INFORMATIONSOURCES OF INFORMATION
 Trade publicationsTrade publications
 Magazines,Magazines,
newspapers, and booksnewspapers, and books
about and for a specificabout and for a specific
industryindustry
 Examples: WWD andExamples: WWD and
DNRDNR
 Consumer publicationsConsumer publications
• Magazines thatMagazines that
provide fashion newsprovide fashion news
for the consumerfor the consumer
• Examples: Teen,Examples: Teen,
Vogue, Glamour, GVogue, Glamour, G
WHAT INFLUENCES THE
TREND FORECASTERS?
 Ethnographic research
 Market research
 Art & culture
 Economic
 Societal
 Environmental
 Technological
 Globalization
Ethnographic
research
 - ethnography- the study of
every day life & practice
 Ethnographic research helps
brands:
 understand how their
demographic is changing
 Identify new customers
 Enable brand strategies to
remain aligned
with their philosophy
THANK
YOU

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Fashion forecasting

  • 1. Fashion Forecasting ‘The future is here, its just not very well distributed.’ William Gibson, science fiction writer
  • 2. FASHION FORECASTING Forecasting   Process of making predictions of the future  based on past and present data and analysis of  trends.  Fashion Forecasting   foreseeing fashion trends and predicting  those trends early enough to allow time for  production to meet the consumer demand.  focuses on upcoming trends   The textile segment leads in recognizing  fashion directions because of the time  required for textile design and development.  Textile designers work at least 18 months  ahead of the schedule for products to hit the  market.
  • 3.  The fashion forecasting process includes the basic steps of :  understanding the vision of the business and profile of target customers,  collecting information about available merchandise,  preparing information,  determining trends, and  choosing merchandise appropriate for the company and target customer. FASHION FORECASTING
  • 4.
  • 5. Aims:  To provide you with an understanding of what trend forecasting is and how organizations use this information  To examine how trends evolve and how they are tracked.
  • 6. Objectives To enable you to:  Undertake research & analysis by identifying and tracking fashion trends  Apply knowledge of fashion forecasting to understand how trends evolve and are interpreted by industry
  • 7. Synchronicity  Common themes shown on catwalks around the world.  Coincidence?  Collaboration?
  • 8. Fashion Forecasting  “Trends are profits waiting to happen” Martin Raymond 2009 Versace scarf prints for AW12 Nelly Rodi  For mainstream brands, timing is essential  Right product, Right place, Right time
  • 9. FASHION TRENDS Trend  The behavior of large group of people,  that is accepted and followed extensively for a period of time. Fashion Trends  The direction of movement of public acceptance of color, texture, and  silhouette in fashion.  Newest styles and silhouettes  Important colors for upcoming seasons  Newest developments in the fiber and  fabric markets
  • 10. Trend forecasters= lifestyle detectives  Constant vigilance  Monitoring current trends & projecting forward.  Observing evolution of trends.  Detecting shifts in attitudes & mindsets.  Spotting looks or lifestyles than run against the norm.
  • 11. Fashion Forecasting  Stylesight  Nelly Rodi  WGSN  Peclers  Carlin  Promostyl  Trend Union  Textiles View  Stylus  Mudpie  LSN  Future Laboratory  Books cost over £1000 each & online subscription starts around £5000 pa
  • 14. Fashion Forecasting D Squared AW11 Topshop AW11
  • 15. ** Accurate forecasting makes it possibleAccurate forecasting makes it possible for the fashion industry segments tofor the fashion industry segments to prepare for and meet consumer demandprepare for and meet consumer demand with products that will be accepted andwith products that will be accepted and purchased.purchased. * Keen worldwide competition increases* Keen worldwide competition increases the importance of accurate trendthe importance of accurate trend identification.identification. THE IMPORTANCE OFTHE IMPORTANCE OF FORECASTINGFORECASTING
  • 16. • Fashion designersFashion designers • Fashion merchandisersFashion merchandisers • Yarn colors or swatches areYarn colors or swatches are sent to designers andsent to designers and merchandisers to plan theirmerchandisers to plan their color stories and purchasecolor stories and purchase fabrics.fabrics. WHO IS INVOLVED IN FORECASTING?WHO IS INVOLVED IN FORECASTING?
  • 17. Long term forecasting  Long-term forecasting is the process of analyzing and evaluating trends that can be identified by scanning a variety of sources for information.  It is a fashion which lasts over two years.  When scanning the market and the consumers, fashion forecasters must follow demographics of certain areas, both urban and suburban, as well as examine the impact on retail and its consumers due to the economy, political system, environment, and culture.
  • 18.  Long-term forecasting seeks to identify:  major changes in international and domestic demographics,  shifts in the fashion industry along with market structures, consumer expectations,  values, and impulsion to buy,  new developments in technology and science, and  shifts in the economic, political, and cultural alliances between certain countries.  There are many specialized marketing consultants that focus on long-term forecasting and attend trade shows and other events that notify the industry on what is to come. Long term forecasting
  • 19. Short term forecasting  Short-term forecasting focuses on current events both domestically and internationally as well as pop culture in order to identify possible trends that can be communicated to the customer through the seasonal color palette, fabric, and silhouette stories.  It gives fashion a modern twist to a classic look that intrigues our eyes.  Some important areas to follow when scanning the environment are: current events, art, sports, science and technology.  Short-term forecasting can also be considered fad forecasting.
  • 20. * Standard Color of Textile Dictionnaire* Standard Color of Textile Dictionnaire * Pantone, Inc.* Pantone, Inc. * International Color Authority* International Color Authority * The Color Box* The Color Box * The Color Marketing Group* The Color Marketing Group * Concepts in Color* Concepts in Color * Huepoint* Huepoint •Color Portfolio, Inc.Color Portfolio, Inc. Color services: Fashion and textileColor services: Fashion and textile industry professionals who meet twice aindustry professionals who meet twice a year to pool their knowledge of coloryear to pool their knowledge of color cycles and preferences and to projectcycles and preferences and to project color trends for the future.color trends for the future. Examples of color servicesExamples of color services
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.  Each retailer's trend forecasting varies and is mainly dependent upon whether the company is a wholesale brand or private label developer. "Every season, there are hundreds of designers showing breathtaking collections that the average consumer will never see.  What does matter is who sees them—the in- house designers and buyers at fast fashion retailers, people who are paying close attention, identifying and predicting which styles, patterns and cuts will appeal to the average woman. Responsibility for trend forecasting
  • 24.  Larger companies such as Forever 21 have their own trend departments where they follow the styles, fabrics, and colors for the upcoming seasons.  This can also be referred to as vertical integration.  A company with its own trend department has a better advantage than those who do not because its developers are able to work together to create a unified look for their sales floor.  Each seasonal collection offered by a product developer is the result of trend research focused on the target market it has defined for itself. Responsibility for trend forecasting
  • 25. Responsibility for trend forecasting  A merchandiser also plays a key role in the direction of upcoming trends.  Different from developers, merchandisers have much more experience in buying and are knowledgeable in what consumers will be looking for.
  • 27. ACTIVITIES IN FASHIONACTIVITIES IN FASHION FORECASTINGFORECASTING  Making and reportingMaking and reporting predictionspredictions  Coordinating informationCoordinating information from fiber, yarn, andfrom fiber, yarn, and apparel companies, andapparel companies, and textile shows worldwidetextile shows worldwide  Analyzing the fashionAnalyzing the fashion press, visiting the world’spress, visiting the world’s fashion centers, andfashion centers, and observing fashion leadersobserving fashion leaders
  • 28.  Conducting marketingConducting marketing researchresearch  Consumer research • Surveys by telephone or mail to determine income levels, lifestyles, fashion preferences, and shopping habits • Consumer focus groups to discuss the pros and cons of currently offered merchandise • In-store informal interviewing to assess what customers like and dislike ACTIVITIES IN FASHIONACTIVITIES IN FASHION FORECASTINGFORECASTING
  • 29.  Conducting marketingConducting marketing research (cont.)research (cont.)  Market researchMarket research • Study of marketStudy of market conditionsconditions • Study consumerStudy consumer lifestyleslifestyles • Study of currentStudy of current events, the arts,events, the arts, and the mood ofand the mood of the publicthe public ACTIVITIES IN FASHIONACTIVITIES IN FASHION FORECASTINGFORECASTING
  • 30.  Conducting marketingConducting marketing research (cont.)research (cont.)  Sales researchSales research • Evaluation ofEvaluation of previous sales trendsprevious sales trends • Rising salesRising sales • Declining salesDeclining sales • Weak salesWeak sales ACTIVITIES IN FASHIONACTIVITIES IN FASHION FORECASTINGFORECASTING
  • 31.  CConducting marketingonducting marketing research (cont.)research (cont.)  Comparison shoppingComparison shopping • Current popular designerCurrent popular designer collectionscollections • Review of fashionReview of fashion publications, catalogs,publications, catalogs, websiteswebsites • Observation of “street”Observation of “street” fashions and celebrityfashions and celebrity wardrobeswardrobes ACTIVITIES IN FASHIONACTIVITIES IN FASHION FORECASTINGFORECASTING
  • 32. SOURCES OF INFORMATIONSOURCES OF INFORMATION  Trade publicationsTrade publications  Magazines,Magazines, newspapers, and booksnewspapers, and books about and for a specificabout and for a specific industryindustry  Examples: WWD andExamples: WWD and DNRDNR  Consumer publicationsConsumer publications • Magazines thatMagazines that provide fashion newsprovide fashion news for the consumerfor the consumer • Examples: Teen,Examples: Teen, Vogue, Glamour, GVogue, Glamour, G
  • 33. WHAT INFLUENCES THE TREND FORECASTERS?  Ethnographic research  Market research  Art & culture  Economic  Societal  Environmental  Technological  Globalization
  • 34. Ethnographic research  - ethnography- the study of every day life & practice  Ethnographic research helps brands:  understand how their demographic is changing  Identify new customers  Enable brand strategies to remain aligned with their philosophy

Editor's Notes

  1. Since the 1970’s trend forecasting for fashion & textiles has grown to become an essential tool for the textiles industry. As the pace of fashion change becomes faster & faster, learning how to observe, identify and project trends becomes more important.
  2. As designers, its important to observe and experience the world around you to find the spark of inspiration for your next collection. You may already find that you instinctively pick up on emerging trends without realising you are doing so. You may not be conscious of being influenced by subtle shifts in lifestyle or culture or that your latest sketches are the result of some visual stimulus stored in your memory bank. Fashion forecasting in a more formalised way is widely used by companies to support the intuitive research that designers already do. FF is a tool to be used in conjunction with your own existing research
  3. Global trends are launched simultaneously across different product categories & market levels . How does this occur? Responding to the same stimulus and the fact that the trend for metallics has been developing over the last couple of seasons .Many think by being able to spot a trend on the high street that this equates to trend prediction, however the clever bit is always being able to look at what has just been, what is on the horizon and then extrapolate what the future will be using a whole host of clues on a political, economical, social, technology and environmental level mixed with aesthetic artistic movements.
  4. Using your gut instinct to design is very important, however, if you design for any of our high street brands you will be expected to be ‘on trend’ so that your products hit the spot for the consumer. It is also more of a science & necessity that the trends hit the stores at exactly the right moment, too early and the consumer won't be ready to adopt them and too late and they won't want them anymore, in business terms this is known as 'the right product, in the right place, at the right time'. This is where trend forecasting comes into its own. Trend agencies provide designers with the research to help them make the right decision about their ranges.
  5. A relatively recent discipline, TF now underpins the short, medium & long term impact of new & emerging changes taking place in the culture around us. They can be large scale changes impacting on the world of science, technology or can be more subtle and difficult to identify shifts in how we live, the food we eat, what music we listen to, how we socialise. These in turn affect the multi discipline aesthetics of fashion, textiles, architecture, furniture, product design. Eg; from the serious downturn in the global economy a trend emerged called New Sobriety, New Austerity, New Modesty using a more sober colour palettes and restrained design aesthetic to project a mood more formal & controlled- the antithesis of ostentatious bling which was about conspicuous consumption & materialism. Trends are a fundamental part of our lives & mapping them to anticipate what’s coming next helps us better understand the ideas & priinciple which motivate us. For design led businesses that means creating products that are tuned into the consumer’s tastes & psyche
  6. Quite a number of different agencies now, many of them fashion product focussed although there is a shift towards forecasting which applies to a broad spectrum of different industries. After all, ethnographic changes and innovations in technology and science will have an impact on all products and services
  7. Ethnographics- tapping in to the human condition, mapping change Market- keynote & mintel facts & figures about sales & market share Art & culture- designers are inspired by contemporary film, music & art. Starting to see art crossing over more into fashion- concept stores which are part shop & part exhibition space Economic- more value concious & a move towards spending more on investments & less on impulse Societal- trend towards more community awareness & focus on local products rather than global Environment- defining issue of this decade Tecnological- instant communication technology, blogs Globalisation- ff must encompass local, national & global trends to be relevant to customers