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Chapter 11
The Basics of Capital
B dgeting
1
Budgeting:
Evaluating Cash Flows
Topics
Overview and “vocabulary”Overview and vocabulary
Methods
NPV
IRR, MIRR
Profitability Index
2
Payback, discounted payback
Unequal lives
Economic life
What is capital budgeting?
Analysis of potential projectsAnalysis of potential projects.
Long-term decisions; involve large
expenditures.
Very important to firm’s future.
3
Steps in Capital Budgeting
Estimate cash flows (inflows &Estimate cash flows (inflows &
outflows).
Assess risk of cash flows.
Determine r = WACC for project.
Evaluate cash flows
4
Evaluate cash flows.
Independent versus Mutually
Exclusive Projects
Projects are:Projects are:
independent, if the cash flows of one are
unaffected by the acceptance of the other.
mutually exclusive, if the cash flows of one
can be adversely impacted by the
t f th th
5
acceptance of the other.
Cash Flows for Franchise L
and Franchise S
10 8060
0 1 2 3
10%L’s CFs:
-100.00
0 1 2 3
6
70 2050
10%S’s CFs:
-100.00
NPV: Sum of the PVs of all
cash flows.
n CF
Cost often is CF0 and is negative.
NPV =∑
n
t = 0
CFt
(1 + r)t
.
7
NPV =∑
n
t = 1
CFt
(1 + r)t
. - CF0 .
What’s Franchise L’s NPV?
10 8060
0 1 2 3
10%L’s CFs:
-100.00
9.09
8
49.59
60.11
18.79 = NPVL NPVS = $19.98.
Calculator Solution: Enter
values in CFLO register for L.
-100
10
60
CF0
CF1
CF2
9
80
10 NPV
CF3
I = 18.78 = NPVL
Rationale for the NPV Method
NPV = PV inflows – CostNPV = PV inflows – Cost
This is net gain in wealth, so accept
project if NPV > 0.
10
Choose between mutually exclusive
projects on basis of higher NPV. Adds
most value.
Using NPV method, which
franchise(s) should be accepted?
If Franchise S and L are mutuallyIf Franchise S and L are mutually
exclusive, accept S because NPVs >
NPVL .
If S & L are independent, accept both;
NPV > 0.
11
Internal Rate of Return: IRR
0 1 2 3
CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3
Cost Inflows
12
IRR is the discount rate that forces
PV inflows = cost. This is the same
as forcing NPV = 0.
NPV: Enter r, solve for NPV.
n CF
IRR: Enter NPV = 0 solve for IRR
= NPV∑
n
t = 0
CFt
(1 + r)t
.
13
IRR: Enter NPV 0, solve for IRR.
= 0∑
n
t = 0
CFt
(1 + IRR)t
.
What’s Franchise L’s IRR?
10 8060
0 1 2 3
IRR = ?
-100.00
PV2
PV1
14
PV3
0 = NPV Enter CFs in CFLO, then press
IRR: IRRL = 18.13%. IRRS =
23.56%.
Find IRR if CFs are constant:
40 4040
0 1 2 3
-100
3 -100 40 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
INPUTS
15
Or, with CFLO, enter CFs and press
IRR = 9.70%.
9.70%
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT
Rationale for the IRR Method
If IRR > WACC then the project’s rateIf IRR > WACC, then the project s rate
of return is greater than its cost-- some
return is left over to boost stockholders’
returns.
E l
16
Example:
WACC = 10%, IRR = 15%.
So this project adds extra return to
shareholders.
Decisions on Projects S and L
per IRR
If S and L are independent acceptIf S and L are independent, accept
both: IRRS > r and IRRL > r.
If S and L are mutually exclusive,
accept S because IRRS > IRRL .
17
accept S because IRRS > IRRL .
Construct NPV Profiles
Enter CFs in CFLO and find NPV andEnter CFs in CFLO and find NPVL and
NPVS at different discount rates:
r NPVL NPVS
0 50 40
18
5 33 29
10 19 20
15 7 12
20 (4) 5
NPV Profile
50 L
20
30
40
50
NPV($)
IRR 23 6%
Crossover
Point = 8.7%
S
L
19
-10
0
10
0 5 10 15 20 23.6
Discount rate r (%) IRRL = 18.1%
IRRS = 23.6%
NPV and IRR: No conflict for
independent projects.
r > IRR
and NPV < 0.
Reject.
NPV ($)
IRR > r
and NPV > 0
Accept.
20
r (%)
IRR
Mutually Exclusive Projects
NPV
L
r < 8.7: NPVL> NPVS , IRRS > IRRL
CONFLICT
r > 8.7: NPVS> NPVL , IRRS > IRRL
NO CONFLICT
21
8.7 %
IRRS
IRRL
S
To Find the Crossover Rate
Find cash flow differences between theFind cash flow differences between the
projects. See data at beginning of the case.
Enter these differences in CFLO register, then
press IRR. Crossover rate = 8.68%, rounded
to 8.7%.
Can subtract S from L or vice versa, but
22
easier to have first CF negative.
If profiles don’t cross, one project dominates
the other.
Two Reasons NPV Profiles
Cross
Size (scale) differences Smaller project freesSize (scale) differences. Smaller project frees
up funds at t = 0 for investment. The higher
the opportunity cost, the more valuable these
funds, so high r favors small projects.
Timing differences. Project with faster
payback provides more CF in early years for
23
payback provides more CF in early years for
reinvestment. If r is high, early CF especially
good, NPVS > NPVL.
Reinvestment Rate
Assumptions
NPV assumes reinvest at r (opportunityNPV assumes reinvest at r (opportunity
cost of capital).
IRR assumes reinvest at IRR.
Reinvest at opportunity cost, r, is more
realistic, so NPV method is best. NPV
24
realistic, so NPV method is best. NPV
should be used to choose between
mutually exclusive projects.
Modified Internal Rate of
Return (MIRR)
MIRR is the discount rate whichMIRR is the discount rate which
causes the PV of a project’s terminal
value (TV) to equal the PV of costs.
TV is found by compounding inflows at
WACC.
25
Thus, MIRR assumes cash inflows are
reinvested at WACC.
MIRR for Franchise L: First,
find PV and TV (r = 10%)
10.0 80.060.0
0 1 2 3
10%
66.0
-100.0
10%
26
12.1
158.1
10%
TV inflows
-100.0
PV outflows
Second, find discount rate that
equates PV and TV
MIRR = 16.5%
158.1
0 1 2 3
-100.0
TV inflowsPV outflows
27
TV inflowsPV outflows
MIRRL = 16.5%
$100 = $158.1
(1+MIRRL)3
Why use MIRR versus IRR?
MIRR correctly assumes reinvestment atMIRR correctly assumes reinvestment at
opportunity cost = WACC. MIRR also
avoids the problem of multiple IRRs.
Managers like rate of return
comparisons, and MIRR is better for this
28
p ,
than IRR.
Normal vs. Nonnormal Cash
Flows
Normal Cash Flow Project:Normal Cash Flow Project:
Cost (negative CF) followed by a series of positive
cash inflows.
One change of signs.
Nonnormal Cash Flow Project:
Two or more changes of signs
29
Two or more changes of signs.
Most common: Cost (negative CF), then string of
positive CFs, then cost to close project.
For example, nuclear power plant or strip mine.
Inflow (+) or Outflow (-) in
Year
0 1 2 3 4 5 N NN0 1 2 3 4 5 N NN
- + + + + + N
- + + + + - NN
- - - + + + N
30
+ + + - - - N
- + + - + - NN
Pavilion Project: NPV and IRR?
5,000 -5,000
0 1 2
r = 10%
-800
Enter CFs in CFLO enter I = 10
31
Enter CFs in CFLO, enter I = 10.
NPV = -386.78
IRR = ERROR. Why?
Nonnormal CFs--two sign
changes, two IRRs.
NPV Profile
450
IRR2 = 400%
NPV
32
-800
0
400100
IRR1 = 25%
r
Logic of Multiple IRRs
At very low discount rates the PV ofAt very low discount rates, the PV of
CF2 is large & negative, so NPV < 0.
At very high discount rates, the PV of
both CF1 and CF2 are low, so CF0
dominates and again NPV < 0.
I b t th di t t hit CF
33
In between, the discount rate hits CF2
harder than CF1, so NPV > 0.
Result: 2 IRRs.
Finding Multiple IRRs with
Calculator
1. Enter CFs as before.
2. Enter a “guess” as to IRR by
storing the guess. Try 10%:
34
10 STO
IRR = 25% = lower IRR
(See next slide for upper IRR)
Finding Upper IRR with
Calculator
Now guess large IRR, say, 200:
200 STO
IRR = 400% = upper IRR
35
When there are nonnormal CFs and
more than one IRR, use MIRR:
0 1 2
-800,000 5,000,000 -5,000,000
PV tfl @ 10% 4 932 231 40
36
PV outflows @ 10% = -4,932,231.40.
TV inflows @ 10% = 5,500,000.00.
MIRR = 5.6%
Accept Project P?
NO Reject because MIRR = 5 6% < rNO. Reject because MIRR = 5.6% < r
= 10%.
Also, if MIRR < r, NPV will be negative:
NPV = -$386,777.
37
NPV $386,777.
Profitability Index
The profitability index (PI) is theThe profitability index (PI) is the
present value of future cash flows
divided by the initial cost.
It measures the “bang for the buck.”
38
Franchise L’s PV of Future
Cash Flows
10 8060
0 1 2 3
10%
Project L:
39
9.09
49.59
60.11
118.79
Franchise L’s Profitability
Index
PIL =
PV future CF
Initial Cost
$118.79
=
$100
40
PIL = 1.1879
PIS = 1.1998
What is the payback period?
The number of years required toThe number of years required to
recover a project’s cost,
or how long does it take to get the
business’s money back?
41
business s money back?
Payback for Franchise L
10 8060
0 1 2 3
-100CFt
Cumulative -100 -90 -30 500
2.4
42
=PaybackL 2 + 30/80 = 2.375 years
Payback for Franchise S
70 2050
0 1 2 3
-100CFt
1.6
43
Cumulative -100 -30 20 40
PaybackS 1 + 30/50 = 1.6 years
0
=
Strengths and Weaknesses of
Payback
Strengths:Strengths:
Provides an indication of a project’s risk
and liquidity.
Easy to calculate and understand.
Weaknesses:
44
Ignores the TVM.
Ignores CFs occurring after the payback
period.
Discounted Payback: Uses
discounted rather than raw CFs.
10 8060
0 1 2 3
CFt
PVCFt -100
-100
10%
9.09 49.59 60.11
45
Cumulative -100 -90.91 -41.32 18.79
Discounted
payback 2 + 41.32/60.11 = 2.7 yrs=
Recover invest. + cap. costs in 2.7 yrs.
S and L are mutually exclusive
and will be repeated. r = 10%.
0 1 2 3 4
Project S:
(100) 60 60
46
(100)
Project L:
(100) 33.5 33.5 33.5 33.5
Note: CFs shown in $ Thousands
NPVL > NPVS. But is L better?
S LS L
CF0 -100 -100
CF1 60 33
NJ 2 4
47
NJ 2 4
I 10 10
NPV 4.132 6.190
Equivalent Annual Annuity
Approach (EAA)
Convert the PV into a stream of annuityConvert the PV into a stream of annuity
payments with the same PV.
S: N=2, I/YR=10, PV=-4.132, FV = 0.
Solve for PMT = EAAS = $2.38.
L: N=4, I/YR=10, PV=-6.190, FV = 0.
S l f PMT EAA $1 95
48
Solve for PMT = EAAL = $1.95.
S has higher EAA, so it is a better
project.
Put Projects on Common Basis
Note that Project S could be repeatedNote that Project S could be repeated
after 2 years to generate additional
profits.
Use replacement chain to put on
common life.
N t i l t l it
49
Note: equivalent annual annuity
analysis is alternative method, shown in
Tool Kit and Web Extension.
Replacement Chain Approach (000s).
Franchise S with Replication:
0 1 2 3 4
Franchise S:
(100) 60 60
(100) 60 60
50
NPV = $7,547.
(100) 60
(100)
(40)
60
60
60
60
Or, use NPVs:
0 1 2 3 4
4,132
3,415
7 547
4,132
10%
51
Compare to Franchise L NPV =
$6,190.
Compare to Franchise L NPV =
$6,190.
7,547
Suppose cost to repeat S in two
years rises to $105,000.
0 1 2 3 4
Franchise S:
(100) 60 60
(105) 60 60
52
NPVS = $3,415 < NPVL = $6,190.
Now choose L.
NPVS = $3,415 < NPVL = $6,190.
Now choose L.
(105)
(45)
60 60
Economic Life versus Physical
Life
Consider another project with a 3-yearConsider another project with a 3-year
life.
If terminated prior to Year 3, the
machinery will have positive salvage
value.
Sh ld l t f th f ll
53
Should you always operate for the full
physical life?
See next slide for cash flows.
Economic Life versus Physical
Life (Continued)
Year CF Salvage ValueYear CF Salvage Value
0 ($5000) $5000
1 2,100 3,100
54
2 2,000 2,000
3 1,750 0
CFs Under Each Alternative
(000s)
0 1 2 30 1 2 3
1. No termination (5) 2.1 2 1.75
2. Terminate 2 years (5) 2.1 4
55
3. Terminate 1 year (5) 5.2
NPVs under Alternative Lives (Cost of
capital = 10%)
NPV(3) = $123NPV(3) = -$123.
NPV(2) = $215.
NPV(1) = -$273.
56
Conclusions
The project is acceptable only ifThe project is acceptable only if
operated for 2 years.
A project’s engineering life does not
always equal its economic life.
57
Choosing the Optimal Capital
Budget
Finance theory says to accept allFinance theory says to accept all
positive NPV projects.
Two problems can occur when there is
not enough internally generated cash to
fund all positive NPV projects:
58
p p j
An increasing marginal cost of capital.
Capital rationing
Increasing Marginal Cost of
Capital
Externally raised capital can have largeExternally raised capital can have large
flotation costs, which increase the cost
of capital.
Investors often perceive large capital
budgets as being risky, which drives up
59
g g y, p
the cost of capital.
(More...)
If external funds will be raised then theIf external funds will be raised, then the
NPV of all projects should be estimated
using this higher marginal cost of
capital.
60
Capital Rationing
Capital rationing occurs when aCapital rationing occurs when a
company chooses not to fund all
positive NPV projects.
The company typically sets an upper
limit on the total amount of capital
61
p
expenditures that it will make in the
upcoming year.
(More...)
Reason: Companies want to avoid theReason: Companies want to avoid the
direct costs (i.e., flotation costs) and
the indirect costs of issuing new capital.
Solution: Increase the cost of capital
by enough to reflect all of these costs,
62
y g ,
and then accept all projects that still
have a positive NPV with the higher
cost of capital. (More...)
Reason: Companies don’t have enoughReason: Companies don t have enough
managerial, marketing, or engineering
staff to implement all positive NPV
projects.
63
Solution: Use linear programming to
maximize NPV subject to not exceeding
the constraints on staffing. (More...)
Reason: Companies believe that the project’sReason: Companies believe that the project s
managers forecast unreasonably high cash
flow estimates, so companies “filter” out the
worst projects by limiting the total amount of
projects that can be accepted.
Solution: Implement a post-audit process
64
Solution: Implement a post audit process
and tie the managers’ compensation to the
subsequent performance of the project.

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ch 11 Capital budgeting

  • 1. Chapter 11 The Basics of Capital B dgeting 1 Budgeting: Evaluating Cash Flows Topics Overview and “vocabulary”Overview and vocabulary Methods NPV IRR, MIRR Profitability Index 2 Payback, discounted payback Unequal lives Economic life
  • 2. What is capital budgeting? Analysis of potential projectsAnalysis of potential projects. Long-term decisions; involve large expenditures. Very important to firm’s future. 3 Steps in Capital Budgeting Estimate cash flows (inflows &Estimate cash flows (inflows & outflows). Assess risk of cash flows. Determine r = WACC for project. Evaluate cash flows 4 Evaluate cash flows.
  • 3. Independent versus Mutually Exclusive Projects Projects are:Projects are: independent, if the cash flows of one are unaffected by the acceptance of the other. mutually exclusive, if the cash flows of one can be adversely impacted by the t f th th 5 acceptance of the other. Cash Flows for Franchise L and Franchise S 10 8060 0 1 2 3 10%L’s CFs: -100.00 0 1 2 3 6 70 2050 10%S’s CFs: -100.00
  • 4. NPV: Sum of the PVs of all cash flows. n CF Cost often is CF0 and is negative. NPV =∑ n t = 0 CFt (1 + r)t . 7 NPV =∑ n t = 1 CFt (1 + r)t . - CF0 . What’s Franchise L’s NPV? 10 8060 0 1 2 3 10%L’s CFs: -100.00 9.09 8 49.59 60.11 18.79 = NPVL NPVS = $19.98.
  • 5. Calculator Solution: Enter values in CFLO register for L. -100 10 60 CF0 CF1 CF2 9 80 10 NPV CF3 I = 18.78 = NPVL Rationale for the NPV Method NPV = PV inflows – CostNPV = PV inflows – Cost This is net gain in wealth, so accept project if NPV > 0. 10 Choose between mutually exclusive projects on basis of higher NPV. Adds most value.
  • 6. Using NPV method, which franchise(s) should be accepted? If Franchise S and L are mutuallyIf Franchise S and L are mutually exclusive, accept S because NPVs > NPVL . If S & L are independent, accept both; NPV > 0. 11 Internal Rate of Return: IRR 0 1 2 3 CF0 CF1 CF2 CF3 Cost Inflows 12 IRR is the discount rate that forces PV inflows = cost. This is the same as forcing NPV = 0.
  • 7. NPV: Enter r, solve for NPV. n CF IRR: Enter NPV = 0 solve for IRR = NPV∑ n t = 0 CFt (1 + r)t . 13 IRR: Enter NPV 0, solve for IRR. = 0∑ n t = 0 CFt (1 + IRR)t . What’s Franchise L’s IRR? 10 8060 0 1 2 3 IRR = ? -100.00 PV2 PV1 14 PV3 0 = NPV Enter CFs in CFLO, then press IRR: IRRL = 18.13%. IRRS = 23.56%.
  • 8. Find IRR if CFs are constant: 40 4040 0 1 2 3 -100 3 -100 40 0 N I/YR PV PMT FV INPUTS 15 Or, with CFLO, enter CFs and press IRR = 9.70%. 9.70% N I/YR PV PMT FV OUTPUT Rationale for the IRR Method If IRR > WACC then the project’s rateIf IRR > WACC, then the project s rate of return is greater than its cost-- some return is left over to boost stockholders’ returns. E l 16 Example: WACC = 10%, IRR = 15%. So this project adds extra return to shareholders.
  • 9. Decisions on Projects S and L per IRR If S and L are independent acceptIf S and L are independent, accept both: IRRS > r and IRRL > r. If S and L are mutually exclusive, accept S because IRRS > IRRL . 17 accept S because IRRS > IRRL . Construct NPV Profiles Enter CFs in CFLO and find NPV andEnter CFs in CFLO and find NPVL and NPVS at different discount rates: r NPVL NPVS 0 50 40 18 5 33 29 10 19 20 15 7 12 20 (4) 5
  • 10. NPV Profile 50 L 20 30 40 50 NPV($) IRR 23 6% Crossover Point = 8.7% S L 19 -10 0 10 0 5 10 15 20 23.6 Discount rate r (%) IRRL = 18.1% IRRS = 23.6% NPV and IRR: No conflict for independent projects. r > IRR and NPV < 0. Reject. NPV ($) IRR > r and NPV > 0 Accept. 20 r (%) IRR
  • 11. Mutually Exclusive Projects NPV L r < 8.7: NPVL> NPVS , IRRS > IRRL CONFLICT r > 8.7: NPVS> NPVL , IRRS > IRRL NO CONFLICT 21 8.7 % IRRS IRRL S To Find the Crossover Rate Find cash flow differences between theFind cash flow differences between the projects. See data at beginning of the case. Enter these differences in CFLO register, then press IRR. Crossover rate = 8.68%, rounded to 8.7%. Can subtract S from L or vice versa, but 22 easier to have first CF negative. If profiles don’t cross, one project dominates the other.
  • 12. Two Reasons NPV Profiles Cross Size (scale) differences Smaller project freesSize (scale) differences. Smaller project frees up funds at t = 0 for investment. The higher the opportunity cost, the more valuable these funds, so high r favors small projects. Timing differences. Project with faster payback provides more CF in early years for 23 payback provides more CF in early years for reinvestment. If r is high, early CF especially good, NPVS > NPVL. Reinvestment Rate Assumptions NPV assumes reinvest at r (opportunityNPV assumes reinvest at r (opportunity cost of capital). IRR assumes reinvest at IRR. Reinvest at opportunity cost, r, is more realistic, so NPV method is best. NPV 24 realistic, so NPV method is best. NPV should be used to choose between mutually exclusive projects.
  • 13. Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) MIRR is the discount rate whichMIRR is the discount rate which causes the PV of a project’s terminal value (TV) to equal the PV of costs. TV is found by compounding inflows at WACC. 25 Thus, MIRR assumes cash inflows are reinvested at WACC. MIRR for Franchise L: First, find PV and TV (r = 10%) 10.0 80.060.0 0 1 2 3 10% 66.0 -100.0 10% 26 12.1 158.1 10% TV inflows -100.0 PV outflows
  • 14. Second, find discount rate that equates PV and TV MIRR = 16.5% 158.1 0 1 2 3 -100.0 TV inflowsPV outflows 27 TV inflowsPV outflows MIRRL = 16.5% $100 = $158.1 (1+MIRRL)3 Why use MIRR versus IRR? MIRR correctly assumes reinvestment atMIRR correctly assumes reinvestment at opportunity cost = WACC. MIRR also avoids the problem of multiple IRRs. Managers like rate of return comparisons, and MIRR is better for this 28 p , than IRR.
  • 15. Normal vs. Nonnormal Cash Flows Normal Cash Flow Project:Normal Cash Flow Project: Cost (negative CF) followed by a series of positive cash inflows. One change of signs. Nonnormal Cash Flow Project: Two or more changes of signs 29 Two or more changes of signs. Most common: Cost (negative CF), then string of positive CFs, then cost to close project. For example, nuclear power plant or strip mine. Inflow (+) or Outflow (-) in Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 N NN0 1 2 3 4 5 N NN - + + + + + N - + + + + - NN - - - + + + N 30 + + + - - - N - + + - + - NN
  • 16. Pavilion Project: NPV and IRR? 5,000 -5,000 0 1 2 r = 10% -800 Enter CFs in CFLO enter I = 10 31 Enter CFs in CFLO, enter I = 10. NPV = -386.78 IRR = ERROR. Why? Nonnormal CFs--two sign changes, two IRRs. NPV Profile 450 IRR2 = 400% NPV 32 -800 0 400100 IRR1 = 25% r
  • 17. Logic of Multiple IRRs At very low discount rates the PV ofAt very low discount rates, the PV of CF2 is large & negative, so NPV < 0. At very high discount rates, the PV of both CF1 and CF2 are low, so CF0 dominates and again NPV < 0. I b t th di t t hit CF 33 In between, the discount rate hits CF2 harder than CF1, so NPV > 0. Result: 2 IRRs. Finding Multiple IRRs with Calculator 1. Enter CFs as before. 2. Enter a “guess” as to IRR by storing the guess. Try 10%: 34 10 STO IRR = 25% = lower IRR (See next slide for upper IRR)
  • 18. Finding Upper IRR with Calculator Now guess large IRR, say, 200: 200 STO IRR = 400% = upper IRR 35 When there are nonnormal CFs and more than one IRR, use MIRR: 0 1 2 -800,000 5,000,000 -5,000,000 PV tfl @ 10% 4 932 231 40 36 PV outflows @ 10% = -4,932,231.40. TV inflows @ 10% = 5,500,000.00. MIRR = 5.6%
  • 19. Accept Project P? NO Reject because MIRR = 5 6% < rNO. Reject because MIRR = 5.6% < r = 10%. Also, if MIRR < r, NPV will be negative: NPV = -$386,777. 37 NPV $386,777. Profitability Index The profitability index (PI) is theThe profitability index (PI) is the present value of future cash flows divided by the initial cost. It measures the “bang for the buck.” 38
  • 20. Franchise L’s PV of Future Cash Flows 10 8060 0 1 2 3 10% Project L: 39 9.09 49.59 60.11 118.79 Franchise L’s Profitability Index PIL = PV future CF Initial Cost $118.79 = $100 40 PIL = 1.1879 PIS = 1.1998
  • 21. What is the payback period? The number of years required toThe number of years required to recover a project’s cost, or how long does it take to get the business’s money back? 41 business s money back? Payback for Franchise L 10 8060 0 1 2 3 -100CFt Cumulative -100 -90 -30 500 2.4 42 =PaybackL 2 + 30/80 = 2.375 years
  • 22. Payback for Franchise S 70 2050 0 1 2 3 -100CFt 1.6 43 Cumulative -100 -30 20 40 PaybackS 1 + 30/50 = 1.6 years 0 = Strengths and Weaknesses of Payback Strengths:Strengths: Provides an indication of a project’s risk and liquidity. Easy to calculate and understand. Weaknesses: 44 Ignores the TVM. Ignores CFs occurring after the payback period.
  • 23. Discounted Payback: Uses discounted rather than raw CFs. 10 8060 0 1 2 3 CFt PVCFt -100 -100 10% 9.09 49.59 60.11 45 Cumulative -100 -90.91 -41.32 18.79 Discounted payback 2 + 41.32/60.11 = 2.7 yrs= Recover invest. + cap. costs in 2.7 yrs. S and L are mutually exclusive and will be repeated. r = 10%. 0 1 2 3 4 Project S: (100) 60 60 46 (100) Project L: (100) 33.5 33.5 33.5 33.5 Note: CFs shown in $ Thousands
  • 24. NPVL > NPVS. But is L better? S LS L CF0 -100 -100 CF1 60 33 NJ 2 4 47 NJ 2 4 I 10 10 NPV 4.132 6.190 Equivalent Annual Annuity Approach (EAA) Convert the PV into a stream of annuityConvert the PV into a stream of annuity payments with the same PV. S: N=2, I/YR=10, PV=-4.132, FV = 0. Solve for PMT = EAAS = $2.38. L: N=4, I/YR=10, PV=-6.190, FV = 0. S l f PMT EAA $1 95 48 Solve for PMT = EAAL = $1.95. S has higher EAA, so it is a better project.
  • 25. Put Projects on Common Basis Note that Project S could be repeatedNote that Project S could be repeated after 2 years to generate additional profits. Use replacement chain to put on common life. N t i l t l it 49 Note: equivalent annual annuity analysis is alternative method, shown in Tool Kit and Web Extension. Replacement Chain Approach (000s). Franchise S with Replication: 0 1 2 3 4 Franchise S: (100) 60 60 (100) 60 60 50 NPV = $7,547. (100) 60 (100) (40) 60 60 60 60
  • 26. Or, use NPVs: 0 1 2 3 4 4,132 3,415 7 547 4,132 10% 51 Compare to Franchise L NPV = $6,190. Compare to Franchise L NPV = $6,190. 7,547 Suppose cost to repeat S in two years rises to $105,000. 0 1 2 3 4 Franchise S: (100) 60 60 (105) 60 60 52 NPVS = $3,415 < NPVL = $6,190. Now choose L. NPVS = $3,415 < NPVL = $6,190. Now choose L. (105) (45) 60 60
  • 27. Economic Life versus Physical Life Consider another project with a 3-yearConsider another project with a 3-year life. If terminated prior to Year 3, the machinery will have positive salvage value. Sh ld l t f th f ll 53 Should you always operate for the full physical life? See next slide for cash flows. Economic Life versus Physical Life (Continued) Year CF Salvage ValueYear CF Salvage Value 0 ($5000) $5000 1 2,100 3,100 54 2 2,000 2,000 3 1,750 0
  • 28. CFs Under Each Alternative (000s) 0 1 2 30 1 2 3 1. No termination (5) 2.1 2 1.75 2. Terminate 2 years (5) 2.1 4 55 3. Terminate 1 year (5) 5.2 NPVs under Alternative Lives (Cost of capital = 10%) NPV(3) = $123NPV(3) = -$123. NPV(2) = $215. NPV(1) = -$273. 56
  • 29. Conclusions The project is acceptable only ifThe project is acceptable only if operated for 2 years. A project’s engineering life does not always equal its economic life. 57 Choosing the Optimal Capital Budget Finance theory says to accept allFinance theory says to accept all positive NPV projects. Two problems can occur when there is not enough internally generated cash to fund all positive NPV projects: 58 p p j An increasing marginal cost of capital. Capital rationing
  • 30. Increasing Marginal Cost of Capital Externally raised capital can have largeExternally raised capital can have large flotation costs, which increase the cost of capital. Investors often perceive large capital budgets as being risky, which drives up 59 g g y, p the cost of capital. (More...) If external funds will be raised then theIf external funds will be raised, then the NPV of all projects should be estimated using this higher marginal cost of capital. 60
  • 31. Capital Rationing Capital rationing occurs when aCapital rationing occurs when a company chooses not to fund all positive NPV projects. The company typically sets an upper limit on the total amount of capital 61 p expenditures that it will make in the upcoming year. (More...) Reason: Companies want to avoid theReason: Companies want to avoid the direct costs (i.e., flotation costs) and the indirect costs of issuing new capital. Solution: Increase the cost of capital by enough to reflect all of these costs, 62 y g , and then accept all projects that still have a positive NPV with the higher cost of capital. (More...)
  • 32. Reason: Companies don’t have enoughReason: Companies don t have enough managerial, marketing, or engineering staff to implement all positive NPV projects. 63 Solution: Use linear programming to maximize NPV subject to not exceeding the constraints on staffing. (More...) Reason: Companies believe that the project’sReason: Companies believe that the project s managers forecast unreasonably high cash flow estimates, so companies “filter” out the worst projects by limiting the total amount of projects that can be accepted. Solution: Implement a post-audit process 64 Solution: Implement a post audit process and tie the managers’ compensation to the subsequent performance of the project.