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Eventos extremos y manejo del riesgo
- 1. Extreme Events and Risk Management Evelia Rivera-Arriaga Lead Author Chapter 6
- 2. (Source: EAS 6792 Group Project Yufei Zou, Sean Miller, Tom Loadholt, 2013) Key questions: • What do we know? • How do we know it? • How confident do we know it? • How much uncertainty can we accept before do something?
- 3. Changes in natural physical environment Changes in ecosystems Adverse effects on human conditions
- 6. What is the impact of climate change on extreme events??? Extremes Observed Projections Hot days frequency and magnitude increasing Very likely Virtually certain Cold days frequency and magnitude Very likely Virtually certain Heavy precipitation extremes Likely more regions with Likely in many regions. Very likely in mid-latitudes and tropics Droughts Medium confidence in some regional trends Medium confidende in in some regions. Likely in some dcurrently dry regions Storms Low confidence Low confidence in dealied regional projections Floods Low confidence (because of human and vegetation wáter use) Low confidence in regional projections. Medium confidence related to in heavy precipitation events Tropical cyclones Low confidence More likely than not in intensity in some basins (Source: IPCC SREX 2012)
- 8. DeterminantsofRisk: Hazard: Exposure: Vulnerability: “changes in exposure and in some cases vulnerability are the main drivers behind observed trends in disaster losses” Environmental dimension Vulnerable natural systems Impacts on systems Mechanisms causing impacts Responses Social dimension Population groups Education Health and well-being Culture Economic dimension Economic system Work and livelihoods (Source: EAS 6792 Group Project Yufei Zou, Sean Miller, Tom Loadholt, 2013)
- 9. CLIMATE DRIVERS & TIPPING POINTS • More frequent & intense precipitation • More intense hurricane rainfall • Sea level rise-related increases in storm surge • Increasing snowmelt & rain- on-snow events EXPOSURE PATHWAYS • Flood waters & debris • Loss of essential infrastructure • Contaminated drinking wáter • Evacuation & population displacement HEALTH OUTCOMES • Drownings • Injuries • Mental health consequences • Gastrointestinal & other illness SOCIAL & BEHAVIORAL CONTEXT • Social determinants of health • Storm preparation & evacuation warnings • Occupation • Dependency on caregivers or medications • Limited language communication (indigenous people) • Homlessness or institutionalization (prisons, psichiatric facilities, nursing homes) ENVIRONMENTAL & INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT • Development in vulnerable coastal áreas, floodplains, or weathersheds • Flood control (both human-managed systems & ecosystems services) • Water, power, transportation, communication, & health care infrastructure • Preparedness (early warning systems, evacuation assisstnace) • Emergency response & disaster relief
- 10. Disaster risk management: disaster risk reduction + disaster management Disaster risk: likelihood of severe alterations due to hazardous physical events Climate change adaptation: human & natural systems Risk = Probability x Consequence Response term (Source: EAS 6792 Group Project Yufei Zou, Sean Miller, Tom Loadholt, 2013)
- 11. What are IPCC reports used for? (Source: EAS 6792 Group Project Yufei Zou, Sean Miller, Tom Loadholt, 2013)
- 12. As individuals and as a nation, are we prepared for the consequences of abrupt and extreme climate events? AR5 WGII SPM
- 13. Muchas gracias!!!! Evelia Rivera Arriaga evrivera@uacam.mx
- 14. IPCC IPCC http://www.slideshare.net/ipcc- media/presentations https://www.youtube.com/c/ipccgeneva Find us on: Website: http://ipcc.ch/ IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int @IPCC_CH https://www.linkedin.com/company/ipcc https://www.flickr.com/photos/ipccphoto/sets/ https://vimeo.com/ipcc THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! For more information:
Editor's Notes
- The character and severity of impacts from climate extremes depend not only on the extremes themselves but also on exposure and vulnerability. 3 goals: To assess the concepts, methods, and instruments etc. to advance adaptation to CC; To assess the new perspectives and challenges of CC; To assess the mutual implications of the evolution of risk management and adaptation to CC; Key concepts (P17): (1) Extreme events: the occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends (‘tails’) of the range of observed values of the variable. (2) Disasters: severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions… (3) Disaster risk: the likelihood over a specified time period of severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions (4) Exposure: the presence (location) of people, livelihoods, environmental services and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected by physical events (5) Vulnerability: the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected
- (1) Different types of extremes; (2) Impacts from climate extremes; (3) Risk calculation;
- Exposure and vulnerability are key determinants of disaster risk and of impacts when risk is realized. Exposure: necessary but not sufficient determinant; vulnerability requires exposure Disasters are associated more and more with lesser-scale physical phenomena that are not extreme in a physical sense which can be principally attributed to increases in exposure and associated vulnerability.
- DRM (risk transfer mechanism): risk reduction-a policy goal or objective and the strategic and instrumental measures employed for anticipating future disaster risk, reducing existing exposure, vulnerability and improving resilience; Disaster management-a social processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies, policies, and measures that promote and improve disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices at different organizational and societal levels. ACC: in human systems-the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities; In natural systems-the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects;