The document discusses preparing water utilities for climate and weather uncertainty. It argues that while the causes of climate change may be debated, water utilities still need to plan for potential impacts like flooding, drought, and severe weather. The author provides examples of extreme events to consider in planning and resources from the EPA on building climate resilience. Utilities are encouraged to examine various scenarios and prioritize preparations that mitigate their worst risks.

1. Dealing with Mother Nature’s
Attitude Problem
Brian Gongol, M.Ed.
DJ Gongol & Associates, Inc.
December 6, 2022
IAMU Annual Water/Wastewater Operators Workshop
Altoona, Iowa

2. Q1. Is the
climate
changing?

3. A1. Some climate change appears clear

4. Q2. Are people causing changes?

5. A2. Humans most likely are contributing

6. Even if we’re plainly responsible for some of it,
at least some change is entirely out of our hands

7. But: For the water sector, it doesn’t really matter
You don’t have to believe
in human-caused climate change
to do some smart and essential planning
for climate and weather uncertainty

8. What does
uncertainty
look like?

9. Emergencies can
happen anytime

10. Have you prepared for sunspots and solar flares?

11. Meteor strikes: A far-out possibility
• Manson, Iowa meteor strike
• 74 million years ago
• Created a crater 23 miles across
• Russian meteor strike
• 2014
• Caused 1,000 injuries

12. Meteor strikes: A far-out possibility
556 recorded events between 1994 and 2013

13. Space could give us anything
from heat waves to ice ages

14. What else could happen?

15. We used to
worry about
“nuclear
winter”

16. Maybe that threat isn’t as extinct as we hoped

17. Volcanoes, though,
are definitely not
extinct

18. Meet 1816, the “year without a summer”
Miniature ice age (cyclical event)
+
Tambora volcano eruption (freak event)
=
Year without a growing season (catastrophic event)

19. The 2010 Icelandic
volcano wasn’t that
long ago
Remember how to say Eyjafjallajökull?

20. We have plenty of domestic volcanoes
• Yellowstone
• Mount St. Helens
• California (7)
• Oregon (5)
• Washington (5)
• Alaska (50)
• Hawaii (6)
• Undersea

21. And there’s always El Nino

22. We face non-greenhouse-gas risks all the time
But for planning purposes,
let’s start with the risks
for which we have
readily-available tools.
That means climate change.

23. EPA forecasts for central states
• Wetter Dakotas (changing upstream conditions)
• More frequent flooding
• More severe droughts
• Lower soil moisture (due to higher evaporation)
• Greater depletion of aquifers

24. Maybe we haven’t measured long enough

25. Local data only goes back about 150 years

26. Maybe past
measurements
haven’t been
accurate

27. Maybe we’re all
just wrong

28. Climate
preparedness tools
can overlap with
terrorism
preparedness

29. Any good preparation will result in some waste
and overshooting

30. Remember the ozone layer?
The response worked!

31. Prepare for whichever “worst” you can embrace
If you’re not preparing for
at least a few things
that don’t end up happening,
you haven’t prepared enough

32. How to accommodate uncertainty

33. Examine
the full
range of
possible
outcomes

34. Prepare for all extremes
Consider both
impact and probability

35. Too much precipitation?

36. Too little precipitation?

37. The wrong type of precipitation?

38. Too much heat?

39. Too little heat?

40. Heat or cold at
the wrong time?

41. How do extremes affect
major water uses?

42. Agriculture and irrigation

43. Power production

44. Reservoirs

45. Ethanol and biodiesel production

46. Industrial use

47. Residential use

48. Consider microclimate issues

49. “Global” warming is too daunting

50. Think on a local scale

51. Is land use changing?

52. Do you have heat islands?

53. How much safety factor around cones of
depression?

54. Where is the groundwater and
where could it go?

55. Where is the surface water and
where could it go?

56. Test some
“What-if?”
scenarios

57. What if: More snowstorms?

58. What if: More snowstorms?
• Runoff impact
• Other Public Works duties
• Pipe freezing
• Hydrant access
• Wellfield access

59. What if: More ice storms?

60. What if: More ice storms?
• Power outages
• Travel restrictions
• Employee absences

61. What if: More intense spring storms?

62. What if: More intense spring storms?
• Bypass events
• Solids overloading at headworks
• I&I problems
• Catch basin maintenance
• Source water challenges

63. What if: More freak
deluge storms?

64. What if: More freak
deluge storms?
August 2016: 12” of rain fell in 24 hours

65. What if: Summer drought is the new normal?

66. What if: Summer drought is the new normal?
• Water reuse
• Nitrate removal
• Source restrictions

67. What if: Irrigation or crop patterns change?

68. What if: Irrigation or crop patterns change?
• Irrigation use
• Tiling and drainage
changes
• Animal agriculture
• Federal regulations

69. What if: Fall lasts later into the year?

70. What if: Fall lasts later into the year?
• More organic matter in surface water
• Changing patterns of lagoon turnover
• More late-season residential irrigation

71. What if: More road salt gets into source water?

72. What if: More road salt gets into source water?
• Higher treatment costs
• More public outreach
• More testing

73. What if: Flood elevations are under-estimated?

74. What if: Flood elevations are under-estimated?
• More vital equipment at risk
• Higher costs for recovery
• Property tax base shrinkage
• Community budgets challenged

75. What if: Extreme rain becomes more common?

76. What if: Extreme rain becomes more common?
• Faster equipment wear
• More overtime labor costs
• Higher energy costs

77. Special regional
considerations

78. Droughts concentrate nitrate runoff

79. Dry land means shifting pipes and more settling

80. Harsher winters
break more pipes

81. Long
droughts
exhaust
shallow wells

82. Flooding threatens raw water sources

83. Downbursts on plains can be tough to absorb

84. River extremes, navigation demands,
and ecosystem requirements

85. Growing interstate conflict over scarce water

86. Factors to consider

87. How robust is your system?
The Chumbawamba Effect:
If you get knocked down,
how soon can you get up again?

88. Have you
considered all
81 possibilities?

89. Have you run any Monte Carlo simulations?

90. Are you prepared for long streaks of bad luck?

91. Have you considered “black swan” events?

92. Channel your inner Donald Rumsfeld
• What are your
“known unknowns”?
• Expect “unknown
unknowns”

93. What tipping points would challenge your
system?

94. Stability versus instability

95. Costs of
preparedness

96. Borrowing costs are historically cheap

97. Will DC distribute
more or less
funding for the
things you actually
need?

98. Are you charging users appropriately?

99. Are you prepared for a (literally) rainy day?

100. Are you prepared for a droughty day, too?

101. Will taxes support your efforts?

102. Think broadly about causes and
think specifically about solutions
Don’t let the politics of climate change
stifle planning for inevitable uncertain events

103. You can’t single-handedly fix climate change
But you aren’t helpless against nature, either

104. Ensure security of wells against future droughts

105. Stress-test access to remote sites

106. Upgrade
distribution to
handle harsh
winters

107. Elevate critical
infrastructure

108. Anticipate strain on rivers and aquifers

109. Build local capacity to perform service
without assistance

110. Plan for worst-case nutrient runoff scenarios

111. Design for resilience
• Can equipment handle worst-case conditions?
• Can repairs be performed in place?
• Can a lone operator work in an emergency?

112. Simplify equipment and shorten supply chains

113. Don’t try to do everything at once
Think through one of the 81
scenarios each week and
you’ll be done in a year and a
half

114. Global warming or not…
You don’t have to be a climate-change hawk
to make good use of climate-change tools

115. EPA tools for
climate-change resiliency
(Or simply for dealing with
Mother Nature’s attitude problem)

116. EPA reading resources
• “Tools for Climate Change Adaptation”
• https://www.epa.gov/arc-x/tools-climate-change-adaptation
• “Emergency Response for Drinking Water and Wastewater”
• https://www.epa.gov/waterutilityresponse
• “Creating Resilient Water Utilities”
• https://www.epa.gov/crwu
• “Basics of Water Resilience”
• https://www.epa.gov/waterresilience/basics-water-resilience

117. EPA action resources
• “Drinking Water and Wastewater Resilience”
• https://www.epa.gov/waterresilience
• “Climate Change Tools to Protect Public Health”
• https://www.epa.gov/climate-research/climate-change-tools-
protect-public-health-and-environment
• “Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool”
• https://vsat.epa.gov/vsat/
• “Climate Change Scenarios Projection Map”
• http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/scenario.
cfm

118. A few words on decision-making frameworks
• Know your history but don’t be chained to it (big picture)
• Rank preparations by cost vs. probable risk (expected value)
• Mitigate your worst-case scenario first (minimax)

119. A few words on decision error
• Overlooking anything that isn’t recent (recency bias)
• Overlooking anything that isn’t nearby (proximity bias)
• Attention isn’t the same as probability
• High-impact events are usually infrequent
• Tornadoes, floods, droughts, derechos, ice storms, blizzards,
and power outages are all part of every-year life here

120. Questions?
• Thanks for your time and
attention!
• This presentation can be
found at
gongol.net/presentations
• Brian Gongol
DJ Gongol & Associates
• 515-223-4144
• brian@gongol.net
• @djgongol on LinkedIn,
Twitter, and Facebook

121. Credits
• Data on active volcanoes:
• https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/california-volcano-observatory/california-has-active-and-hazardous-volcanoes
• https://www.oregon.gov/oem/hazardsprep/Pages/Volcanoes.aspx
• https://www.dnr.wa.gov/programs-and-services/geology/geologic-hazards/volcanoes-and-lahars
• https://avo.alaska.edu/volcanoes/about.php
• https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/active-volcanoes-hawaii
• Human impact on climate change:
• http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/ipcc-climate-change-report-is-out-its-warmer-and-were-responsible/
• http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WG1AR5_Headlines.pdf
• Tambora volcano:
• http://www.erh.noaa.gov/car/Newsletter/htm_format_articles/climate_corner/yearwithoutsummer_lf.htm
• Ice Age/Chicago Tribune headline:
• http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1979/01/14/page/4/article/were-slipping-into-an-ice-age/index.html
• Asteroid map:
• http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=84763
• Manson impact crater:
• http://www.iihr.uiowa.edu/igs/meteorites-in-iowa/
• Russian asteroid in 2014:
• http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-23/asteroid-samples-analysed-after-earth-collision/5472798
• Icelandic flag:
• https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ic.html
• El Nino map:
• http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
• Republican River dispute:
• http://www.kearneyhub.com/news/regional_news/m-spent-by-nebraska-in-republican-river-basin-fight/article_61a43903-
0bb3-5f07-89c3-0ebebfa56b6e.html
• http://www.omaha.com/news/nebraska/nebraska-considered-big-winner-in-river-dispute-with-kansas-
despite/article_7dec6af2-bc3b-11e4-baa8-d705578bcee6.html
• Solar flare image:
• http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News062013-cme.html#.Um3mcPnksrU
• Ozone hole image:
• http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/Scripts/big_image.php?date=2006-09-24&hem=S
• Federal funds rate graph:
• http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/
• Earth from space:
• http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=57723
• Wayne tornado in 2014:
• http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=surveyresultsfromwayne,netornado
• Climate records:
• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/
• Donald Rumsfeld:
• https://www.dvidshub.net/image/33935/rumsfeld-visits-troops-farewell-visit#.VQERtI54o3U
• Groundwater map:
• http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/StateMap.asp?sa=NE&sc=31
• All other photos are copyright Brian Gongol
• A limited number of icons were automatically inserted by PowerPoint
• All other images (including all product-specific and project site photos) are the original work of the author
• Copyright 2022 by Brian Gongol, all rights reserved