Jamel Taganza Inovev

1. Jamel Taganza
Vice-President
Jamel.taganza@inovev.com
Michel Costes
President
michel.costes@inovev.com
http://www.inovev.com
The future of
Electric vehicles and
batteries in Europe in 2030
A realistic forecast
beyond industry
dreams and fear

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About Inovev
The company Inovev is a global service company
fully dedicated to the automotive industry.
It supports automotive professionals who design and engineer vehicles and
automotive systems: professionals from carmakers and their supply chain.
Inovev collects, processes
and analyses data
related to market and technologies
Data
&
Analyses
Inovev supports companies by promoting
their innovations online
and in Worldwide professional events
Promotion
of
Innovations

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Introduction
Electric vehicles in Europe
Between
Dreams
Fears

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Electric Vehicles
 The battery electric vehicle market has taken off in Europe, in the past two years, representing nearly 10%
of the passenger cars market, thanks to an offer that has been developed by mainstream carmakers.
However the road for future is not as clear as some players would like to be. Electric vehicles
remain expensive (and decrease of their prices is uncertain). Transition could be braked by the needed
transformation of the supply chain industry, the decrease of related employment and the needs to secure materials
sourcing.
Inovev will present relevant scenarios based on a realistic approach taking into-account the
experience acquired in recent years by political decision-makers in an uncertain geopolitical context and by the
automotive industry in the design of their vehicles.
Batteries
The market demand and production of batteries from now on to 2030 will be
addressed, with a special attention relating to the players (Asian and European).
Introduction

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The electric vehicles market today

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No major market succeeds to return
to pre-Covid level.
US is now again the second largest
market in the world.
Europe is at a level it has not being
seen for over 20 twenty years.
By contrast, India will reached its peak
in 2022.
Europe in perspective
Global Sales of light vehicles (TOP 5 countries)
China
22,8 million
USA
13,7 million
EU
12,4 million
India
4,3 million
Japan
4 million
2004 2022

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Chinese market buys more BEVs than EU, US and Japan together.
Europe is the second largest market for BEVs and the first one for PHEVs.
By contrast, Japan has only invested in HEVs-full while US registered twice less BEVs than Europe despite Tesla.
Europe in perspective
2022 Global market by energy (in million units)
HEV-Full PHEV BEV Thermal
xEVs: 5,6
17,2
3,9
1
0,66
12
0,75
0,8
9,2
1,3
0,9
0,9
3
0,87
1,7 3,1
0,9

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China;
44%
USA;
32%
EU; 20%
S.Korea;
4%
Japan;
1%
China;
50%
EU
35%
S.Korea;
5%
Japan;
5%
USA
3%
India;
2%
Japan;
75%
EU
11%
S.Korea;
8%
USA
4%
China;
2%
A clear domination of China on the production of BEVs and PHEVs.
Despite a lagging local market, the USA is the second largest producer of BEVs thanks to Tesla and GM-Wuling.
Europe is only the world's third largest producer of BEVs despite its strong domestic market and carmakers.
By contrast, Japan is almost non-existent in the BEV market, and has only focused on HEVs.
The xEVs players in the World
Global producers of xEVs in 2022
BEV PHEV HEV-Full
By nationality
of carmakers group

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Many actors among the producers of BEVs, but few European among the major ones.
Tesla is still the first producer of BEVs in world in 2022, despite the competition.
A clear dominance of BYD among producers of PHEVs (1/3 of the global production).
A very dominant position of Toyota in the production of HEVs.
The xEVs players in the World
Global producers of xEVs in 2022
BEV PHEV HEV-Full
BYD;
29%
VW; 9%
Geely;
9%
Stellantis
9%
Hyundai
-Kia
5%
SAIC
3%
BMW;
8%
Mercedes;
6%
Toyota;
4%
Others;
18%
Renault-Nissan
11%
Honda;
13%
Toyota;
62%
Others;
15%
By carmakers
group
Tesla;
22%
BYD; 11%
GM; 9%
VW; 7%
Renault-
Nissan
4%
Geely
4%
Stellantis
4%
Hyundai-Kia
4%
Chery; 4%
GAC; 3%
SAIC; 3%
BMW; 3%
Others;
13%

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1,0
0,1
0,3
0,3
0,2
0,8
0,4
0,1
0,4 0,4
0,1
0,6
1,0
0,2
1,5
0,4
0,6
0,6
0,3
0,1
1,0
0,3
0,5
0,3
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,1
0,2 0,2
0,1
0,0
0,1
A B C D E F Van & LUV
The xEVs market in the World
The Global market of xEVs in 2022 – By segment (in million units)
BEV
PHEV
HEV-Full
The A segment is the second
market for BEVs in China, while it is
non-existent in the USA and very weak in
Europe.
In Europe, the BEV market is balanced
between the D, C and B segments.
C and D segments are dominating the
markets of PHEVs and HEVs-full in the three
major markets.

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2030 Scenarios

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Reinforcement of European standards for CO2 emissions:
2035 CO2 Objectives - Context
September 2022
Definitive adoption
of the new regulation
2026 and every two years
the Commission will assess
the progress made towards achieving
the 100% emission reduction targets.
Graph source: ICCT

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In summary: Forces pushing and hampering the development of the plug-in vehicles market
Pushing forces
– Offer
• Increasing offer from carmakers
– Favourable inclusion of xEVs into CO2
regulations
– Possible profits for carmakers
– Demand
• Society
– No direct emission from vehicles
– Decreased noise
– Getting access to restricted Zones (ZEZ/LEZ)
• User
– Comfort
– No need to drive to fuel tank
– Possibility to access restricted zone
Brakes
– Demand
• High TCO
– High purchase price, consequence
of the price of the battery
– Electricity taxed in the future at the same level
of fuel
– Resale price
older technology vehicles lose value
– Governmental policies
» Decrease of subsides
» Political measures to slowdown
• Charging station
– Private, Offices, Public
- Availability of materials
Dependence of Europe towards other countries

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Position of players regarding 2035 objectives
Regulator Carmakers Supply chain Charging
infrastructure
Final user
 Zero emission
light vehicles
from 2035 in EU.
 Affordable EVs
for everyone.
 More jobs by
developing new
technologies.
 Charging
infrastructure
largely deployed
in every country.
 Even if we
disagree we
have no other
choice.
 We want now
to sell only
high added-
value products
to preserve our
margins
 How will we make
the transition?
 Is it still worth
working for
automotive
industry?
 Will we have
access to the
needed
materials?
 Who will pay for
the
infrastructure?
 What is the
business model?
 How can I afford
an EV car?
 How/Where can
I charge it?
 When will I buy
an EV?
 What will I do
with my thermal
car?

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In the three scenarios established by
Inovev, in 2030, the level of the European
market and production will not return
to the pre-Covid level.
In its Reference scenario (in blue),
Inovev forecasts a market at 14,5 million units
and a production at 15,1 million units.
Inovev market scenarios for 2030
Market and production overall scenarios

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In the three scenarios
established by Inovev,
in 2030, thermal
vehicles will still be
marketed and bought by
customers in Europe.
In its Reference scenario
(in blue), Inovev forecasts
for the EU market a 35%
share for the BEVs and 10%
for the PHEVs.
Inovev market scenarios for 2030
xEVs market scenarios (2025 & 2030)
9% 11% 15%
35%
20%
35%
50%
10%
12%
12%
10%
3%
10%
15%
81% 77% 73%
55%
77%
55%
35%
BEV PHEV Thermal
2022
2025
Low
2025
Ref
2025
High
2030
Low
2030
Ref
2030
High

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Battery cells for EVs: Today and 2030 scenarios

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Production process
Materials and processes undertaken in a typical gigafactory

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Battery cells factories in 2030 - Summary
4
Factories currently producing cells:
Envision AESC, LG Chem,
Samsung SDI and SK Innovations
16
New factories from now to 2030
with medium and strong
probabilities of success
13
Different players,
including 5 which
never produce cells until now
8
Different European countries to
welcome factories:
France, Germany, Hungary, Italy,
Poland, Spain, Sweden, UK
665
gWh of capacities
Minimum scenario according to
producers objectives

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Inovev Scenarios of
demand of batteries cells
according to the volume of
BEVs and PHEVs produced in
Europe from now to 2030
(Inovev scenarios).
In its Reference scenario
(in blue), Inovev forecasts a
needs of batteries cells
growing from
83 gWh in 2022.
to 197 in 2025.
and 349 in 2030.
Batteries cells demand for the production of PHEV and BEV in Europe
197
349
83
330
500
147
191
Batteries cells demand in Europe (gWh)
Scenario High
Scenario Reference
Scenario Low
For the calculation:
- BEV battery average capacity: 60 kWh
- PHEV battery average capacity: 20 kWh
2022 2026 2030

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Batteries cells demand vs capacities in Europe in 2030
83
191
349
500
31
474
316
164
Batteries cells demand and capacities in Europe (in gWh*)
*Success probability took into account for the calculation: Medium and strong
124
665
2030 - Low 2030 - Ref 2030 - High
2022
Overcapacity
Demand
According to Inovev scenarios of cells demands in 2030 and capacities announced by producers,
in any case we will face overcapacities.
How producers of cells will handle this overcapacity?
 Exporting cells to other regions (US, Asia)?
 Reducing the capacities?
 Waiting for a long term development of the European market

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Based on cells producers announcements,
Inovev calculated the production of cells by country
in Europe.
Germany is set to become the European
leading producer of cells in 2030 ahead of Spain
and Hungary.
Europe 2030: Where and who will produce batteries cells for BEVs and PHEVs?
47,5
65
1,9
172
90 87,5 82
68 65 60
40
Production of cells by gigafactory location
(capacities in gWh)
2022 2030-min
1,9
65
17,5
30
99
88
82 80
65
50 47,5
40 35
24 24 20
10
Production of cells by cells producers
(capacities in gWh)
2022 2030-min
Cells producers
capacities announcements
Envision AESC is currently the smallest battery cell
producer with its Sunderland plant (for Nissan).
However, it could become the leading cell producer
in 2030, if production capacities really increase in Sunderland
and Douai (for Renault) and if its factory project in Spain is
confirmed.

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Today, only S.Korean (LG Chem, Samsung SDI and SK
Innovations) and Chinese (Envision AESC) producers are
operating in Europe.
However in 2030, European producers are set to take the
lead with 10 new factories representing nearly
50% of the future capacities.
It is to be noticed that at this time, no projects of
factories from Japanese suppliers have been communicated
Europe 2030: Where and who will produce batteries cells for BEVs and PHEVs?
Factories owners nationality (nb of factories) What do these factories produce? (nb of factories)
S.Korea
3
China
1
2022
EU
10
S.Korea
5
China
4
USA
1
2030
Cells production
& module
assembly
3
Cells production &
module assembly
& pack
1
2022
Cells
production;
6
Cells production &
module assembly;
10
Cells production &
module assembly & pack
4
2030
It is difficult to identify if these factories are
producing partly or entirely cells, modules or packs.
According to Inovev researches, in 2030, the
majority of factories will produce cells and
assemble them into modules
NMC cathode should still be the leading cells
technology in 2030

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EVs market:
 Will the market meet the carmakers offer?
 Will the overall market sharply decline?
 Can neutral-emission fuels curb the development of EVs?
 Will "real politics" take over as 2035 approaches?
Demand of battery cells:
 Overcapacity regarding the demand of EVs
 Will all projects of Giga factories will be backed up by carmakers?
 The lack of Japanese cells producers (Panasonic): How they will position themselves? With Tesla?
 The availability of raw materials and the resulting competition
Conclusion and arising questions

25. 18/08/2022 25
Thank you
for
your attention
6 studies
More information on the Internet Platform dedicated to xEVs
https://www.inovev.com/index.php/en/electrification
xEVs Market Batteries Tech & Market
Electrification Tech. Plastic Materials for xEVs
Mass Analysis Emissions

26. Postal address:
34 rue Camille Pelletan
92300 Levallois-Perret
France
Stationary telephone: + 33-952 96 06 68
Contacts:
 Managing director
Michel Costes
michel.costes@inovev.com
 Sales and marketing
Jamel Taganza
jamel.taganza@inovev.com