Here's the executive summary for Rethink Energy's definitive global forecast about EVs (Electric Vehicles) and eMobility, showing how and where 1.6 billion EVs will be over the next 30 years. The report argues how the decline of oil consumption will be more rapid as is perceived by many; to the point where as early as 2031 prices of sub-$25 a barrel will render oil production financially unviable. The key factors of Europe, China and Tesla – the Europeans setting laws making ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles illegal in new cars after 2035 - has led to EV penetrations well over 20% of new car sales in 2021. It has meant that the acceptance of EV uptake has gone into overdrive. Not even a year ago, there were still industry forecasts predicting that anywhere up to two-thirds of all vehicles would be ICE by 2050. How will opportunities for EV manufacturers (like Tesla) and EV infrastructure suppliers emerge? Where will be the most lucrative markets for electricity producers? And is the oil industry having its last hurrah? Will companies like ExxonMobil be reduced to extracting as much money from its assets in the next 6 or 7 years as possible before losing investor confidence? The answers to these questions, and more can be found in the Rethink Energy EV forecast to 2050: Tesla versus ExxonMobil – who’s right? Over 39 pages, accompanied with graphs, charts and data in an accompanying spreadsheet, it consists of: 1) A country by country survey of EV take-up from now till 2050, factoring in economic and legislative conditions; 2) The path leading to how 460 million charging points will be required by 2050; 3) The reasoning behind Rethink’s EV numbers and why they’re higher than the likes of Bloomberg, WoodMac and S&P (some of whom have changed course 3 times in the last year). More details at https://rethinkresearch.biz/reports-category/rethink-energy-research/

1. R E T H I N K
T E C H N O L O G Y
R E S E A R C H
https://rethinkresearch.biz
Companies mentioned in this report: ABB, Aral, Audi, Ausgrid, Blink,
Bloomberg, BMW, BP, BYD, CATL, Centrica, Chargefox,
ChargePoint, China Southern Power Grid, Citroen, Convergence
Energy Services, Daimler, eeMobility, EDF, EDP, Electric Mobility
Brazil, Endesa, ENEL, Energie Baden-Württemberg, Engie, Eni,
Everty, EV Power, E.ON, Ford, General Motors, Gestamp
Automoción, Grupo Antolin, Hindustan Petroleum, Hyundai, IHS
Markit, InstaVolt, Ionity, Isuzu, LG Chem, Magenta EV Systems,
Maingau Energie, Mercedes, Mitsubishi, Nikola, Nissan, Nord Pool
EMCO, Northvolt, Opel, Panasonic, QuantumScape, Peugeot,
Porsch, RAC, Renault, Rivian, RWE, SEAT, Shell, Star Charge, State
Grid, Statkraft, Stellantis, Tank & Rast, Tata Power, TELD, Tennet,
Tesla, TotalEnergies, Toyota, TransGrid, Ultium, Vinfast,
VolksWagen, Volvo, Wood Mac, YKC.
Lead analyst: Peter White
Tesla versus ExxonMobil – who’s right?
“ R e t h i n k h a s a c o m m i t m e n t t o f o r e c a s t i n g
m a r k e t s t h a t o t h e r s s h y a w a y f r o m – t h o s e
o n t h e v e r g e o f r a d i c a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n ”
Rethink Energy’s definitive 30 year forecast on EVs and eMobility
With dramatic implications for oil and for investors
Executive Summary

2. Copyright © 2021 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
2
CONTENTS
Page
Table of Contents 2
Table of Figures 3
Introduction 4
Conclusions 6
Factors affecting EV uptake 7
The Supply Chain guides everything 11
EV Forecasts 13
China 13
India 15
USA 16
Germany 18
Spain 21
France 22
Italy 24
United Kingdom 24
Australia 26
Turkey 27
South Africa 28
Vietnam 28
Mexico 29
Saudi Arabia 30
Taiwan 30
Indonesia 31
Brazil 32
Canada 33
Russia 34
South Korea 34
Japan 35
The rest of the world 36
Additional conclusions 38
Average driving distances 39
Electricity outputs 41
Contacts 43
About Rethink Technology Research 44

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3
GRAPHS AND TABLES
Page
Total petroleum used by passenger cars in millions of gallons 4
Global EV fleet penetration to 2050 6
Cumulative Global EV forecast to 2040 9
The growth in plug-in cars in China to 2050 14
The growth in plug-in cars in India to 2050 15
The growth in plug-in cars in the USA to 2050 16
The growth in plug-in cars in Germany to 2050 19
The growth in plug-in cars in France to 2050 23
The growth in plug-in cars in Italy to 2050 24
The growth in plug-in cars in the UK to 2050 25
The growth in plug-in cars in Brazil to 2050 32
The growth in plug-in cars in South Korea to 2050 34
The growth in plug-in cars in Japan to 2050 35
Total petroleum used by passenger cars in millions of gallons 39
Global Natural Gas Electricity Generation 41
Global Electricity requirement EVs, 50/50 grid/PPA 41

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Introduction
While oil executives (and some car execs too) play at being ostriches,
burying their collective heads in the sand (presumably looking for
more oil) the acceleration of Electric Vehicle uptake has gone into over-
drive. Instead of still talking about what fraction of the market the oil
majors will be squabbling over in 2050, it will become crystal clear over
the next 6 to 7 years, that the shift to EVs will deflate anyone still in-
vested in oil, push them to defend their last product – natural gas, and
leave the major companies in that market overcome with debt with few
remaining assets to balance their books.
By 2030 there will be a number of huge bankruptcies of household
names, as many of them have left it too late to move their businesses
anywhere sensible. Debt holders will squabble over the remaining
corpses, looking for assets worth buying cheap and turning around
fast. They will find few.
The graph below shows how the world will never again recover the oil
usage numbers of 2019, which was indeed peak oil, and yet there are
probably 5 more years of slightly increasing oil sales from the depths of
the pandemic, before successive 5% falls in oil revenues will see the
price under pressure, as too much supply chases too little demand.
The potential for global oil infighting inside and
outside Opec+, and the desecration of a number of
emerging economies still reliant on oil, but unable
to compete with Saudi, Qatar, Russia and the US
as the price falls, will lead to huge international
unrest, debt defaults and falling currencies. A
global crash is not out of the question, despite the
fact that investors and government debt agencies
are perfectly clear that this has been on the cards
for a while. It will be its suddenness that will
make it so shocking.
By 2031 we expect the conditions for the fall in the price of oil to be
somewhere near the pandemic period of oversupply when oil prices
went negative. But instead of this fall being temporary in nature, this

5. Copyright © 2021 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
5
time around it will be permanent, and across the entire supply chain
there will be chaos, including among every industry that relies on oil as
a feedstock for chemicals, such as the plastics industry. They will have
few places to go.
Investors will have a clear picture of this in 4 to 5 years, but this is the
first report that paints an unequivocal picture quite this early and quite
so confidently, sure of the timescale.
Once prices fall, this time they will never come back and keeping oil
flowing in ever smaller amounts until the last 100 million ICE vehicles
are on the world’s roads, will prove more than a challenge, with re-
wards for only a handful of companies, employing a relatively low
number of people. For all intents and purposes the oil industry will be
in the past and its asset base will be destroyed.
What will rise up to replace it is already pretty clear – a world with 1.63
billion electric and zero emissions passenger cars – and that’s not
counting, buses, trucks and commercial vehicles or two wheelers –
which will also have gone zero emissions to the much the same extent.
Oil companies could see that coming already, but continued to have
hopes for the humble passenger car. No longer.
By 2050 only 7.6% of what will then be 1.76 billion 4 wheeled passenger
cars around the world will be still using internal combustion engines
(ICE).
And a combination of governments, oil companies, car companies and
utilities will have partnered and grown the relevant infrastructure to
support that many EVs – some 460 million individual charging posts.
In fact we believe that well ahead of 2050, from around 2035 onwards,
there will be so much wealth creation in the renewables industry that
investors will barely notice the passing of oil, nor gas when it follows it
shortly after.
This report explains how the simple forecast process for EVs works,
why it is robust and how it is inevitable and yet it is STILL conservative
– there are things we can imagine changing in the next 5 years which
will see this transition happen even faster.

6. Copyright © 2021 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
6
And the key drivers have been Europe, China and Tesla – the Europe-
ans setting laws making ICE vehicles illegal in new cars after 2035 has
led to EV penetrations well over 20% of new car sales this year, for in-
stance in both France and Germany during H2 2021.
For the first time this is a report which focuses on the speed at which
the EV transition is happening, and does preserve any optimism for the
oil majors, just because they are customers – we hope you enjoy it.
This report is essential reading for anyone seeking to fully understand
what is happening in the EV market from now till 2050. This includes
those planning or investing in any aspect of transport, energy and
property including manufacturers, charging networks, battery-makers,
or one of the many vendors seeking to supply the EV market and infra-
structure. Importantly the forecast is relevant to organizations invest-
ing in any area of the energy supply market such as utilities, renewable
energy developers, existing oil suppliers, investors, traders, energy
equipment manufacturers, grid-scale energy storage, developers, EPCs,
energy companies, government regulators, lobbying firms and strategic
decision makers.
For $2,300 (for 1 reader), we will give you access to every report, webi-
nar and podcast we produce in the next 12 months, as well as from the
last 12. We will also throw in an annual subscription to our Weekly
Analysis. That same is true at $3,800 for a corporate license, for any
number of subscribers above 2.
Who should buy this report?

7. Copyright © 2021 Rethink Research, All rights reserved.
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Rethink Energy: Taking a different view of the
energy transition
Rethink Energy is our energy service, made up of our Weekly Analysis and a
series of “breakthrough” forecasts and webinars which show the true rate at
which the Energy Transition is happening.
So far mostly US based research groups pick away at renewables, energy stor-
age and hydrogen as if they are “nice to have” which can co-exist with oil, gas
and coal – they cannot. These research firms are overly influenced by fossil
fuel thinking. Rethink Energy is the only forecaster that can see quite clearly
how the energy markets are like a circle of dominoes – push one and they all
fall over. It is very different forecasting a market that is on the edge of a preci-
pice, compared to one which is on a flat hilltop.
This year we have issued reports on how gas assets will inevitably become
stranded; a forecast on how the US acceleration in energy storage will trigger a
global uptake of the technology; how multiple “Tesla” style visionary busi-
nesses will dominate post transition stock markets; a forecast for global off-
shore wind, and two tracking statements of where we are in Wind and Solar
global installations. In all of these cases, we see the energy transition accelerat-
ing, not stalling. We see fossil fuels on death row.
Our latest report is entitled, “Tesla versus ExxonMobil – who’s right?”. Buy it
here.
Previous forecasts include;
• Warming and Cooling - double whammy for the grid
• Last Chance Saloon for Gen 3 CSP
• Renewables set to unlock $2.2 trillion Green Steel Monster
• Look Back in Anger—A simplified global energy model
• Perovskites poised to disrupt solar supply chains everywhere
• Wind accelerates past nuclear, hydro in post Covid power markets
• What a difference a day makes; Biden win triggers solar acceleration
• Europe goes all in on hydrogen for the transport economy
• Energy through the looking glass | What stock markets look like on the
other side of the energy transition
• USA flying start triggers rush for Energy Storage leadership

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8
RETHINK LEADERSHIP
RETHINK ENERGY’S MAIN CONTRIBUTORS
Peter White - Principal Analyst
peter@rethinkresearch.biz
+44 (0)7734 - 037414
Harry Morgan - Analyst
harry@rethinkresearch.biz
+44 (0)117 329 1480
Andries Wantanaar - Author
andries@rethinkresearch.biz
Peter White - CEO and Co-founder
peter@rethinkresearch.biz
+44 (0) 7734 037414
Caroline Gabriel - Research Director
caroline@rethinkresearch.biz
+44 (0)207 450 1230
www.rethinkresearch.biz

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Rethink is a thought leader in quadruple play, renewable energy, and 5G
wireless. It offers consulting, advisory services, research papers, webi-
nars, plus three weekly research services; Wireless Watch, a major influ-
ence among wireless operators and equipment makers; Faultline, which
tracks disruption in the video ecosystem, and OTT video, Rethink Ener-
gy, which monitors investment opportunities in the changing energy
landscape.
About Rethink Technology Research
Need more information?
Simon Thompson (Senior Consultant)
simon@rethinkresearch.biz
+44 1280 820560 or +1 (225) 366-3209

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Published November 2021