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Environmental impacts of electric mobility and interactions with the electricity sector in Germany

Oeko-Institut
Oeko-Institut
Oeko-InstitutOeko-Institut

4th German-Japanese Environmental Dialogue Forum Electric Mobility and Smart Grids: Strategies and Technologies Tokyo, 17 and 18 November 2011 Florian Hacker, Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin

Environmental impacts of electric mobility and interactions with the electricity sector in Germany

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Environmental impacts of electric
mobility and interactions with the electricity
            sector in Germany




      4th German-Japanese Environmental Dialogue Forum
  Electric Mobility and Smart Grids: Strategies and Technologies
                Tokyo, 17 and 18 November 2011

               Florian Hacker, Öko-Institut e.V., Berlin
                                                                   1
OPTUM research project

»   Title: “Optimising the environmental benefits of electric vehicles –
    An integrated consideration of vehicle use and the electricity
    sector in Germany”


»   Consortium partners: Öko-Institut e.V., ISOE
»   Funded by: German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature
    Conservation and Nuclear Safety
»   Duration: 09/2009 – 09/2011
»   Overall project value: € 782,760


»   Main goals:
     »   Market potential of electric vehicles (EVs)
     »   Interaction of EVs with electricity market
     »   Effect on GHG emissions of German vehicle stock 2010 - 2030

                                                                           2
What factors determine the environmental
benefits of EVs?

»   Starting points:

    »   EVs cause no direct emissions
    »   GHG balance of EVs is determined by source of electricity
        generation



»   Necessary analytical steps:

    »   acceptance of EVs
    »   mobility behaviour
    »   market potential of EVs
    »   interactions with the power plant fleet
    »   electricity demand & GHG emissions



                                                                    3
Modelling approach OPTUM




                           4
Deriving a market scenario


»   Definition of scenario assumptions
     »   e.g. technology development, energy prices
»   Maximum potential of electric vehicles
     »   Analysis of current usage profiles and mobility patterns
»   Acceptance of electric vehicles
     »   User survey (conjoint analysis)
»   Consideration of market development
     »   Diffusion of technological innovations in automotive sector
»   Market scenario for electric vehicles
     »   Determining new vehicle entry for 2010-2030
     »   Modelling the passenger car fleet for 2010-2030




                                                                       5
Electric mobility scenario for 2010-2030

»   Scenario is developed within a series of workshops with
    representatives from energy sector & transport sector


»   Key assumptions:
    »   Segments: BEV up to mid-size segment, PHEV in all segments
    »   Electric range: BEV 160 km, PHEV 50 km
    »   Battery costs: 280 €/kWh (2020), 230€/kWh (2030)
    »   Additional efficiency improvements in PHEV, BEV & CV up to 2030
    »   Moderate increase in fuel and electricity prices
    »   Charging infrastructure: increase in charging points in private and
        public areas, increase in charging power
    »   Mobility behaviour: requirements for passenger car usage remain
        unchanged




                                                                              6
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Environmental impacts of electric mobility and interactions with the electricity sector in Germany

  • 1. Environmental impacts of electric mobility and interactions with the electricity sector in Germany 4th German-Japanese Environmental Dialogue Forum Electric Mobility and Smart Grids: Strategies and Technologies Tokyo, 17 and 18 November 2011 Florian Hacker, Öko-Institut e.V., Berlin 1
  • 2. OPTUM research project » Title: “Optimising the environmental benefits of electric vehicles – An integrated consideration of vehicle use and the electricity sector in Germany” » Consortium partners: Öko-Institut e.V., ISOE » Funded by: German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety » Duration: 09/2009 – 09/2011 » Overall project value: € 782,760 » Main goals: » Market potential of electric vehicles (EVs) » Interaction of EVs with electricity market » Effect on GHG emissions of German vehicle stock 2010 - 2030 2
  • 3. What factors determine the environmental benefits of EVs? » Starting points: » EVs cause no direct emissions » GHG balance of EVs is determined by source of electricity generation » Necessary analytical steps: » acceptance of EVs » mobility behaviour » market potential of EVs » interactions with the power plant fleet » electricity demand & GHG emissions 3
  • 5. Deriving a market scenario » Definition of scenario assumptions » e.g. technology development, energy prices » Maximum potential of electric vehicles » Analysis of current usage profiles and mobility patterns » Acceptance of electric vehicles » User survey (conjoint analysis) » Consideration of market development » Diffusion of technological innovations in automotive sector » Market scenario for electric vehicles » Determining new vehicle entry for 2010-2030 » Modelling the passenger car fleet for 2010-2030 5
  • 6. Electric mobility scenario for 2010-2030 » Scenario is developed within a series of workshops with representatives from energy sector & transport sector » Key assumptions: » Segments: BEV up to mid-size segment, PHEV in all segments » Electric range: BEV 160 km, PHEV 50 km » Battery costs: 280 €/kWh (2020), 230€/kWh (2030) » Additional efficiency improvements in PHEV, BEV & CV up to 2030 » Moderate increase in fuel and electricity prices » Charging infrastructure: increase in charging points in private and public areas, increase in charging power » Mobility behaviour: requirements for passenger car usage remain unchanged 6
  • 7. Acceptance of electric vehicles » Methodological approach: » Survey of approx. 1,500 new car buyers in Germany » Conjoint analysis: Simulation of car purchases based on 8 criteria and 3 propulsion system types » Criteria: motor type, performance, purchase costs, fuel and electricity costs, charging time, electric range, CO2 emissions, parking privileges » Motor type: CV, BEV, PHEV » Combination of parameters in several simulated cycles » Range of example vehicles to choose between » Purchase decisions are realistically simulated based on a combination of different parameters » Significance of different parameters is implicitly determined » Market shares are derived based on different vehicle types 7
  • 8. Simulation of vehicle purchase in 2030 Choosing between conventional, battery-electric and plug-in-hybrid vehicles 100% 90% 80% 35% 36% 37% 37% 70% 60% CV 50% 41% PHEV 40% 42% 44% BEV 30% 63% 20% 10% 24% 22% 19% 0% Klein Mini City-BEV Small Klein BEV Mid-size Mittel Large Groß Source: OPTUM 8
  • 9. Results of acceptance analyses » Approx. 60 % of users would use electric vehicles, choosing either PHEV or BEV » Engine type is highly significant – electric motors are regarded as environmentally friendly » Changes to purchase price have lower effect than expected » Consumption costs are important factor in choice of vehicle » Improvements to charging time and electric range lead to significant increase of BEV share – however, almost exclusively at cost of PHEV share » Highly environmentally conscious people with good local transport connections show a high affinity to BEV » People without their own parking spaces tend to show a greater interest in electric vehicles 9
  • 10. Market scenario for electric vehicles German government targets: 2020: 1 million electric vehicles 2030: 6 million electric vehicles 7 Passenger cars in millions PHEV (large) PHEV (mid-size) Passenger cars 2030: 6 PHEV (small) 5,080,000 PHEV BEV (mid-size) 700,000 BEV 5 90,000 City BEV BEV (small) Total: 5,870,000 City-BEV (mini) 4 Passenger cars 2020: 3 473,000 PHEV 57,000 BEV 2 8,000 City BEV Total: 538,000 1 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1 million electric cars Source: OPTUM 10
  • 11. Electricity demand of EVs » Average annual kilometres travelled: » Conventional passenger cars: 13,700 km » Important: Annual kilometres travelled for BEV are approx. 40 % lower than for CV » Electric driving share: » (City-)BEV: 100 % » PHEV: about 67 % » Electricity demand profiles for electric vehicles: » Electricity demand of BEV and PHEV is simulated in combination with EV fleet based on 60 different vehicle usage profiles » Electricity demand profiles take into account necessary minimum battery level and passenger car usage » Hourly resolved electricity demand varies depending on assumptions for charging infrastructure and charging patterns of passenger car users » Input in POWERFLEX electricity market model is hourly resolved electricity demand 11
  • 12. PowerFlex – Functionality of electricity market model » Optimisation model which minimises objective function of electricity generation costs and determines merit order Source: OPTUM 12
  • 13. German electricity market without EVs in 2030 100.000 Wind offshore unused Unused REG: 3.1 % p.a. Wind onshore unused PV unused 80.000 Pumped storage (production) Wind offshore Wind onshore PV 60.000 Run-of-river Imports Biomass MW 40.000 Heavy fuel oil Light fuel oil Natural gas Hard coal 20.000 Lignite Must run power plants Pumped storage (storage) 0 Battery charging EVs Electricity consumption Overall electricity production SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI Thermal and must run power plants -20.000 5-Oct 6-Oct 7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 13 Source: OPTUM
  • 14. German electricity market with EVs & load management in 2030 100.000 Wind offshore unused Unused REG: 2.0 % p.a. Wind onshore unused PV unused 80.000 Pumped storage (production) Wind offshore Wind onshore PV 60.000 Run-of-river Imports Biomass MW 40.000 Heavy fuel oil Light fuel oil Natural gas Hard coal 20.000 Lignite Must run power plants Pumped storage (storage) 0 Battery charging EVs Electricity consumption Overall electricity production SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI Thermal and must run power plants -20.000 5-Oct 6-Oct 7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 14 Source: OPTUM
  • 15. Electricity production for EVs by energy source Additional electricity production for EVs in 2030 Imports 19 28 4.7 % 18.7 % 76.5 % 98.7 % 85.6 % 108.9 % 96.9 % 108.9 % PV 17 26 15 24 Wind offshore 13 22 TWh Wind onshore 11 20 9 18 Run-of-river 7 16 Vegetable oil 5 14 3 12 Solid biomass 1 10 Biogas -1 8 -3 6 Heavy fuel oil -5 4 Light fuel oil -7 2 TWh -9 0 Nuclear power -11 -2 Natural gas w/o LM* w/ LM-Biogas w/ LM-PV w/o LM-Wind w/o LM-PV w/ LM w/o LM-Biogas w/ LM-Wind Hard coal Lignite Pumped storage (production) Source: OPTUM 15
  • 16. Electricity production for EVs: GHG emissions Specific CO2 emissions for additional electricity production in 2030 1 CO2 overall CO2 overall 0,8 0,752 0,713 0,6 kg CO2/kWh 0,4 0,2 0,062 0,080 0,042 0,046 0,017 0 -0,012 -0,2 w/o LM* w/ LM-PV w/ LM-Biogas w/ LM w/o LM-Wind w/ LM-Wind w/o LM-PV w/o LM-Biogas *LM = Load management Source: OPTUM 16
  • 17. GHG balance of a mid-size passenger car in 2030 200 180 160 140 CO2 emissions [g/km] 120 100 80 indirect 60 direct 40 20 0 CV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV Without add. REG With add. wind Add. biogas German electricity plants plants production mix 2030 (752 g/kWh) (17 g/kWh) (46 g/kWh) (490 g/kWh) Source: OPTUM » Note: GHG emissions of additional electricity production for EVs are considered 17
  • 18. Development of kilometres travelled in Germany 800 billions 700 600 Kilometres travelled [km] 500 PHEV (petrol) PHEV (electricity) 400 BEV (electricity) 300 CV (diesel) CV (petrol) 200 100 0 2010 2020 2030 Source: OPTUM Share of total kilometres travelled in 2030: • 8 % kilometres travelled with electricity • 11 % kilometres travelled by BEV & PHEV overall 18
  • 19. GHG balance for passenger cars in Germany 140 120 100 GHG emissions [mt/a] 90 87 80 82 60 40 Reference scenario Electric mobility scenario (without add. REG) 20 Electric mobility scenario (with add. REG) 0 2010 2020 2030 Source: OPTUM » Note: GHG emissions of electric vehicles are determined by the additional electricity production for EVs (see PowerFlex) 19
  • 20. Project findings » Electric vehicles (BEV & PHEV) can have approx. 15 % share of car stock in Germany in 2030 » Scenario without additional REG in 2030: » Electric vehicles have similar emission levels to comparable conventional vehicles » Therefore: » Electric vehicles can only make a positive contribution to climate protection if additional renewable capacities are made available. » “Surplus” renewable electricity is by no means sufficient in Germany in 2030 to cover electricity demand of EVs. » Load management is required for an integration of electric vehicles that is beneficial to the electricity market & the environment. 20
  • 21. Electric mobility as a possible trigger for a change in paradigm? » Changed usage characteristics of EVs: » Still currently regarded as a barrier to their market success » Starting point for new mobility concepts and a changed “mobility culture” of the future? » It is conceivable that the effects of electric mobility on future mobility will be much greater. » Embedding electric vehicles in alternative mobility concepts could have large potentials for a more sustainable transport sector. » Because: Only a combination of technology, increased renewable power generation and changed mobility behaviour will enable the long-term climate protection targets to be achieved and ensure sustainable mobility in the future. 21
  • 22. Thank you for your attention! Florian Hacker Infrastructure & Enterprises Division Berlin office Schicklerstraße 5-7 10179 Berlin f.hacker@oeko.de www.oeko.de Illustration: Drushba Pankow 22