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ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY

                            2007 THIRD QUARTER
                           SHAREHOLDERS’ REPORT
Erie Indemnity delivered good results in the third quarter,   and Casualty Group”) write personal and commercial
driven by strong performances in our underwriting             lines property/casualty coverages exclusively through
and investment operations. We’re continuing to see            independent agents and pool their underwriting results.
an improvement in the underlying factors of our               The financial position or results of operations of the
management operations as well. Despite rate reductions,       Exchange are not consolidated with those of the Company.
direct written premium remained flat due to increases         The Company’s earnings are largely generated by fees
in new policies in force and improvement in our               based on direct written premiums of the Property and
retention rate. We see this as a positive indication of our   Casualty Group, the principal member of which is the
performance in the ongoing soft market.                       Exchange. The Company, therefore, has a direct incentive
                                       John J. Brinling Jr.   to protect the financial condition of the Exchange. The
                     President and Chief Executive Officer    members of the Property and Casualty Group pool their
                                                              underwriting results. Under the pooling agreement, the
About Erie Indemnity Company                                  Exchange assumes 94.5 percent of the pool. Accordingly,
                                                              the underwriting risk of the Property and Casualty
Erie Indemnity Company (Company) is a Pennsylvania
                                                              Group’s business is largely borne by the Exchange.
business corporation formed in 1925 to be the attorney-
                                                              Through the pool, the Company’s property/casualty
in-fact for the Erie Insurance Exchange (Exchange), a
                                                              subsidiaries currently assume 5.5 percent of the Property
Pennsylvania-domiciled reciprocal insurance exchange.
                                                              and Casualty Group’s underwriting results.
As attorney-in-fact, the Company is required to perform
certain services relating to the sales, underwriting and      The Property and Casualty Group seeks to insure
issuance of policies on behalf of the Exchange. For its       standard and preferred risks primarily in private
services as attorney-in-fact, the Company charges a           passenger automobile, homeowners and small
management fee calculated as a percentage, not to             commercial lines, including workers’ compensation. The
exceed 25 percent, of the direct and affiliated assumed       Property and Casualty Group’s sole distribution channel
premiums written by the Exchange.                             is its independent agency force, which consists of more
                                                              than 1,900 agencies comprised of over 8,300 licensed
The Company also operates as a property/casualty insurer
                                                              representatives in 11 midwestern, mid-Atlantic and
through its three insurance subsidiaries. The Exchange and
                                                              southeastern states, and the District of Columbia.
its property/casualty subsidiary and the Company’s three
property/casualty subsidiaries (collectively, the “Property



                             Erie Insurance Group Organizational Chart
Corporate Information
                                                                    Stock transfer agent
Financial information
                                                                    American Stock Transfer & Trust Company
The Erie Indemnity Company submits a quarterly report
                                                                    59 Maiden Lane
to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Form
                                                                    Plaza Level
10-Q. Shareholders may obtain a copy of the Form 10-Q
                                                                    New York, NY 10038
report without charge by writing to: Chief Financial
                                                                    800.937.5449
Officer, Erie Indemnity Company, 100 Erie Insurance
Place, Erie, PA, 16530 or by visiting the Company’s Web
                                                                    Corporate headquarters
site at www.erieinsurance.com.
                                                                    100 Erie Insurance Place
Common stock information                                            Erie, PA 16530
                                                                    814.870.2000
The Erie Indemnity Company’s Class A, non-voting
common stock is traded on the NASDAQ Stock Market
                                                                    Internet address
under the symbol “ERIE.” Quotations are available via
major financial news sources.                                       Financial statement filings, shareholder information, press
                                                                    releases and general news about the Company may also
                                                                    be accessed at: www.erieinsurance.com.




                      Erie Indemnity Company Third Quarter 2007 Results
As announced at our third quarter Webcast, the Company                - an estimate of $4.3 million for a judgment against
will no longer be distributing quarterly shareholder reports.           us in a lawsuit arising from our termination of an
The report contains redundant information that can easily               agency, and
be found in the quarterly earnings releases and Form 10-Q’s           - an estimate of $3.7 million related to our portion of
filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. If                   any additional compensation that may be due our
you have any questions, please contact our Corporate                    former president and chief executive officer who
Communications Department at 814.870.2000.                              voluntarily resigned in August 2007.
Key points for the third quarter 2007:                              • Direct written premiums remained flat in the third
                                                                      quarter of 2007, increasing only 0.1%.
Net income was $53.5 million for the third quarter of
2007, a 1.3 percent increase from $52.8 million for the             • GAAP combined ratios of the insurance underwriting
same period in 2006. Net income per share-diluted                     operations improved to 88.0 percent in the third
increased to $0.87 per share, compared to $0.82 per                   quarter of 2007 from 89.2 percent for the quarter
share in the comparable quarter in 2006.                              ended September 30, 2006, driven by favorable
                                                                      development in prior accident year loss and loss
• Net operating income per share (excluding net realized
                                                                      adjustment expense reserves and low catastrophe
  gains or losses on investments and related taxes)
                                                                      losses.
  increased by 0.4 percent to $0.84 per share in the third
  quarter of 2007, from $0.83 per share, for the same               • Net revenue from investment operations increased
  period one year ago.                                                to $30.5 million, or 33.5 percent, from $22.9 million
                                                                      for the third quarters of 2007 and 2006, respectively,
Management fee revenue increased 0.3 percent to $245.6
                                                                      driven by improved equity in earnings of limited
million, from $244.7 million for the same period one
                                                                      partnerships.
year ago. Gross margins from management operations
decreased to 16.0 percent in the third quarter of 2007              • The 2007 annualized effective tax rate of 32.9 percent
from 20.5 percent in the third quarter of 2006.                       was benefited by $1.6 million to adjust our estimated
                                                                      current tax position to actual 2006 tax returns.
• Third quarter 2007 results were effected by charges of
  $8.0 million, or $.09 per share, as follows:




                                                                2
Key drivers of third quarter 2007 results-segment basis
                                                                  (Unaudited)                                   (Unaudited)
                                                        Three months ended September 30,              Nine months ended September 30,
(dollars in thousands)                                   2007         2006     Change                  2007         2006     Change
Management operations:
Management fee revenue                     $ 245,585 $ 244,739      0.3%                          $ 730,691 $ 728,778             0.3%
  P&C Group* direct written premium (DWP) $ 981,539 $ 980,762       0.1%                          $ 2,927,965 $ 2,942,536       (0.5)%
  Drivers of P&C Group* DWP
    Policies in force—year-over-year                                                                3,873,665   3,793,455       80,210
    Policy retention—year-over-year                                                                     90.0%       89.2%       0.8 pts
    Avg. premium per policy—year-over-year                                                        $       978 $     1,011     $    (33)
Insurance underwriting operations:
GAAP combined ratio                             88.0      89.2 (1.2) pts                                 87.3         91.7     (4.4) pts
Prior accident year reserve development—
  (redundancy) deficiency**                      (7.8)     (3.8) (4.0) pts                                (7.5)       (3.8)    (3.7) pts
Catastrophe loss ratio                            3.4       1.6 1.8 pts                                    2.0         3.7     (1.7) pts
Investment operations:
Net realized gains (losses) on investments          $        3,438   $         (872)     NM       $     7,550 $      (721)        NM
Equity in earnings of limited partnerships          $       14,169   $       10,848    30.6%      $    46,867 $    29,049       61.3%
 * P&C Group—Erie Insurance Property and Casualty Group
** Excludes prior year salvage and subrogation recoveries
NM—not meaningful


Management operations
Management fee revenue reflected modest growth of                            from $200.5 million for the same period in 2006.
0.3 percent, as direct written premiums of the Property                      Commission costs, the largest component of the cost of
and Casualty Group were flat in the third quarter of 2007                    management operations, increased 0.3 percent to $144.9
compared to the third quarter of 2006. The management                        million from $144.4 million in the third quarter 2006.
fee rate being set at its maximum level of 25 percent for                    Normal and accelerated commissions increased $1.8
2007, up from 24.75 percent in 2006, contributed to the                      million, or 0.2 percent, driven by an increase in workers
slight increase in management fee revenue compared to                        compensation commission rates and higher accelerated
the third quarter of 2006. This higher management fee                        commissions due to more newly appointed agencies. A
rate in 2007 increased management fee revenue by $7.3                        change in the commission allowance for mid-term policy
million, or $0.08 per share-diluted, for the nine months                     cancellations reduced the year-over-year third quarter
ended September 30, 2007.                                                    2007 commissions by $1.1 million when compared to
                                                                             2006 and reflected the continued downward trend of
Growth in policies in force is the result of the Company’s
                                                                             estimated mid-term policy cancellations. Management
expansion of its independent agency force through
                                                                             recently approved an extension of the $50 private
appointments as well as improved policyholder retention.
                                                                             passenger auto bonus to run through June 30, 2008.
Through the first nine months of 2007, the Company
                                                                             The program, which pays a $50 bonus to agents for each
appointed 176 new agencies, bringing our total agencies
                                                                             qualifying new private passenger auto policy issued, was
to 1,937 at September 30, 2007. The Company expects
                                                                             originally planned to expire December 31, 2007.
to meet its goal of 200 new agency appointments during
2007. In 2006, the Company appointed 139 new agencies.                       Third quarter cost of management operations, excluding
                                                                             commissions, increased 20.8 percent to $67.8 million
Due to continued soft market conditions, the Property
                                                                             in 2007 from $56.1 million in 2006. Personnel costs
and Casualty Group has been implementing rate
                                                                             increased by 18.1 percent in the third quarter of 2007
reductions to be more price competitive, which resulted
                                                                             due to the recognition of an estimate of any additional
in a $72 million decrease in written premiums in the
                                                                             compensation that may be due our former president
first nine months of 2007. An additional $14 million in
                                                                             and chief executive officer who voluntarily resigned in
rate reductions are forecast for the remainder of the
                                                                             August 2007, an increase in the projected payouts for
year. The most significant rate reductions have been in
                                                                             management incentive plans, and an increase in salary
the homeowners and private passenger auto lines of
                                                                             expense from higher average pay rates offset by lower
business. We are estimating an increase of $3 million in
                                                                             staffing levels. All other operating costs increased 52.6
premium rate actions for 2008.
                                                                             percent for the three months ended September 30, 2007,
The cost of management operations increased 6.0                              driven by a charge of $4.3 million for a judgment against
percent to $212.6 million in the third quarter of 2007,                      us in a lawsuit related to an agency termination.


                                                                         3
Insurance underwriting operations                                Liquidity and capital resources
The Company’s insurance underwriting operations                  In the third quarter of 2007, we purchased 1,903,201
generated gains of $6.2 million and $5.7 million in              shares of our Class A nonvoting common stock separate
the third quarters of 2007 and 2006, respectively. The           from our current stock repurchase program from the
Property and Casualty Group’s adjusted statutory                 F. William Hirt Estate for a total purchase price of
combined ratio was 82.3 and 83.7 in the third quarter of         $99.0 million, or $52.04 per share. Mr. Hirt, our former
2007 and 2006, respectively.                                     Chairman of the Board, passed away in July 2007. In
                                                                 conjunction with our authorized stock repurchase plan,
• Earned premiums declined $1.1 million for the third
                                                                 we repurchased an additional 1,670,384 shares of our
  quarter of 2007 reflecting the trend of rate decreases.
                                                                 outstanding Class A common stock at a cost of $89.0
• Development of prior accident year loss reserves,              million, or $53.30 per share, during the third quarter of
  excluding salvage and subrogation recoveries,                  2007. During the first nine months of 2007, 2,266,033
  continued to be favorable in the third quarter 2007,           shares were repurchased under this plan at a cost
  improving the loss ratio 7.8 points, or $4.0 million.          of $120.8 million. Total shares repurchased through
                                                                 September 30, 2007, including the repurchase from the
• Catastrophe losses incurred for the third quarter of
                                                                 F. William Hirt Estate, were 4,169,234. In September 2007,
  2007 and 2006 were $1.8 million and $0.9 million,
                                                                 our Board of Directors approved a continuation of the
  respectively.
                                                                 current stock repurchase program for an additional $100
The majority of this positive underwriting result in             million through December 31, 2008. We have $109 million
the third quarter of 2007 was impacted by favorable              in repurchase authority remaining under this plan.
developments of reserves on prior accident quarters for
automobile bodily injury and uninsured/underinsured
motorist (UM/UIM) bodily injury. Improvements in
accident quarter loss ratios in these lines were a result
of improved frequency and severity trends. The third
quarter 2006 favorable development of 3.8 points was
driven by improvements in the UM/UIM bodily injury and
workers compensation lines of business, partially due
to more effective claims handling. The improvement in
the workers compensation line of business was due to
improved severity trends.

Investment operations                                            “Safe Harbor” Statement Under the Private Securities
                                                                 Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Certain forward-looking
Net revenue from investment operations increased 33.5
                                                                 statements contained herein involve risks and uncertainties.
percent in the third quarter of 2007 to $30.5 million
                                                                 These forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current
compared to $22.9 million in the third quarter of 2006.          views about future events, are based on assumptions and are
                                                                 subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that
Net realized gains on investments increased $4.3 million
                                                                 may cause results to differ materially from those anticipated in
in the third quarter of 2007 from our common stock
                                                                 those statements. Many of the factors that will determine future
holdings. Included in net realized gains on investments
                                                                 events or achievements are beyond our ability to control or
are impairment charges of $3.0 million and $1.6 million
                                                                 predict. These statements include certain discussions relating
during the third quarters of 2007 and 2006, respectively.        to management fee revenue, cost of management operations,
Impairment charges recorded on fixed maturity and                underwriting, premium and investment income volume, business
equity securities during the first nine months of 2007 and       strategies, profitability and business relationships and other
2006 were $5.7 million and $5.0 million, respectively.           business activities during 2007 and beyond. The Company
                                                                 assumes no obligation whatsoever to publicly update or revise
Equity in earnings of limited partnerships increased by
                                                                 any forward-looking statements.
$3.3 million in the third quarter of 2007 due to market
value appreciation.




                                                             4
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
                                      (Dollars in thousands, except in per share data)
                                                              Three months ended                        Nine months ended
                                                                 September 30                             September 30
                                                              2007             2006                    2007             2006
                                                                   (unaudited)                              (unaudited)
Operating revenue
 Management fee revenue—net                             $    232,089       $    231,388      $        690,432     $       688,723
 Premiums earned                                              51,892             53,017               155,988             160,868
 Service agreement revenue                                     7,470              7,410                22,186              21,508
  Total operating revenue                                    291,451            291,815               868,606             871,099
Operating expenses
 Cost of management operations                               200,913            189,536               576,768             562,629
 Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred                 30,766             32,573                92,789             101,261
 Policy acquisition and other underwriting expenses           13,090             12,325                36,779              38,905
  Total operating expenses                                   244,769            234,434               706,336             702,795
Investment income—unaffiliated
  Investment income, net of expenses                           12,233             12,215                40,350             41,818
  Net realized gains (losses) on investments                    3,438               ( 872)               7,550               ( 721)
  Equity in earnings of limited partnerships                   14,169             10,848                46,867             29,049
    Total investment income—unaffiliated                       29,840             22,191                94,767             70,146
Income before income taxes and equity in earnings
  of Erie Family Life Insurance Company                        76,522             79,572               257,037            238,450
Provision for income taxes                                     23,669             27,421                79,767             82,513
Equity in earnings of Erie Family Life Insurance
 Company, net of tax                                                643              634                 3,074              2,569
 Net income                                             $      53,496      $      52,785         $ 180,344            $ 158,506
 Net income per share:
  Class A common stock—basic                            $        0.97      $        0.91         $        3.17        $      2.67
  Class A common stock—diluted                                   0.87               0.82                  2.87               2.41
  Class B common stock—basic and diluted                       145.92             139.34                482.27             404.46
 Weighted average shares outstanding:
  Class A common stock—basic                                55,183,547         57,873,922            56,727,315       59,179,328
  Class A common stock—diluted                              61,370,219         64,129,350            62,935,587       65,717,956
  Class B common stock—basic and diluted                         2,559              2,573                 2,568            2,691
 Dividends declared per share:
  Class A common stock                                  $           0.40   $        0.36         $        1.20        $      1.08
  Class B common stock                                             60.00           54.00                180.00             162.00




                                                               5
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS—SEGMENT BASIS
                                    (Amounts in thousands, except in per share data)
                                                               Three months ended               Nine months ended
                                                                  September 30                    September 30
                                                               2007             2006           2007             2006
                                                                    (unaudited)                     (unaudited)
Management operations
Management fee revenue                                     $   245,585     $   244,739     $   730,691     $   728,778
Service agreement revenue                                        7,470           7,410          22,186          21,508
 Total revenue from management operations                      253,055         252,149         752,877         750,286
Cost of management operations                                  212,601         200,498         610,377         595,351
 Income from management operations                              40,454          51,651         142,500         154,935
Insurance underwriting operations
Premiums earned                                                 51,892          53,017         155,988         160,868
Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred                    30,766          32,573          92,789         101,261
Policy acquisition and other underwriting expenses              14,898          14,714          43,429          46,238
  Total losses and expenses                                     45,664          47,287         136,218         147,499
  Underwriting income                                            6,228           5,730          19,770          13,369
Investment operations
Investment income, net of expenses                             12,233           12,215          40,350          41,818
Net realized gains (losses) on investments                      3,438             ( 872)         7,550            ( 721)
Equity in earnings of limited partnerships                     14,169           10,848          46,867          29,049
Equity in earnings of Erie Family Life Insurance Company          692               682          3,304           2,763
  Net revenue from investment operations                       30,532           22,873          98,071          72,909
Income before income taxes                                      77,214          80,254         260,341         241,213
Provision for income taxes                                      23,718          27,469          79,997          82,707
 Net income                                                $   53,496      $    52,785     $ 180,344       $ 158,506
 Net income per share—Class A basic                        $       0.97    $      0.91     $      3.17     $      2.67
 Net income per share—Class A diluted                              0.87           0.82            2.87            2.41
 Net income per share—Class B basic and diluted                145.92           139.34          482.27          404.46
Weighted average shares outstanding—
 Class A diluted                                                61,370          64,129          62,936          65,718

Amounts presented on a segment basis are gross of intercompany/intersegment items




                                                               6
RECONCILIATION OF OPERATING INCOME TO NET INCOME

                                                                    We use operating income to evaluate the results of
Definition of non-GAAP and
                                                                    operations. It reveals trends in our management services,
operating measures
                                                                    insurance underwriting and investment operations that
We believe that investors’ understanding of our perfor-             may be obscured by the net effects of realized capital
mance is enhanced by the disclosure of the following non-           gains and losses. Realized capital gains and losses may
GAAP financial measure. Our method of calculating this              vary significantly between periods and are generally
measure may differ from those used by other companies               driven by business decisions and economic developments
and therefore comparability may be limited.                         such as capital market condition, the timing of which is
                                                                    unrelated to our management services and insurance
Operating income is net income excluding realized
                                                                    underwriting processes. We believe it is useful for
capital gains and losses and related federal income
                                                                    investors to evaluate these components separately and in
taxes. Equity in earnings or losses of Erie Family Life
                                                                    the aggregate when reviewing our performance. We are
Insurance Company and equity in earnings or losses of
                                                                    aware that the price to earnings multiple commonly used
limited partnerships are not excluded from the calculation
                                                                    by investors as a forward-looking valuation technique uses
of operating income. Both of these categories include
                                                                    operating income as the denominator. Operating income
the respective investment’s realized capital gains and
                                                                    should not be considered as a substitute for net income
losses, as well as unrealized gains and losses, as these
                                                                    and does not reflect our overall profitability.
investments are accounted for under the equity method.
                                                                    The following table reconciles operating income and net
Net income is the GAAP measure that is most directly
                                                                    income for the periods ended September 30, 2007 and 2006:
comparable to operating income.


                                                               Three months ended                   Nine months ended
                                                                  September 30                        September 30
                                                                   (unaudited)                          (unaudited)
(in thousands, except per share data)
                                                               2007               2006            2007             2006
Operating income                                           $   51,261         $   53,352       $ 175,436        $ 158,975
 Net realized gains (losses) on investments                        3,438             ( 872)          7,550             ( 721)
 Income tax (expense) benefit on realized
   gains (losses)                                              ( 1,203)                305          ( 2,642)             252
   Realized gains (losses), net of income taxes                  2,235               ( 567)           4,908            ( 469)
Net income                                                 $   53,496         $   52,785       $ 180,344        $ 158,506

                                                               Three months ended                   Nine months ended
                                                                  September 30                        September 30
                                                                   (unaudited)                          (unaudited)
Per Class A Share—Diluted                                      2007               2006             2007             2006
Operating income                                           $      .84         $      0.83      $      2.79      $      2.42
 Net realized gains (losses) on investments                          0.05           ( 0.01)            0.12           ( 0.01)
 Income tax (expense) benefit on realized gains (losses)           ( 0.02)            0.00           ( 0.04)            0.00
   Realized gains (losses), net of income taxes                      0.03           ( 0.01)            0.08           ( 0.01)
Net income                                                 $        0.87      $      0.82      $       2.87     $       2.41




                                                               7
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF FINANCIAL POSITION
                                                (Amounts in thousands, except per share data)
                                                                                                September 30    December 31
                                                                                                    2007           2006
                                                                                                 (unaudited)
Assets
Investments
Fixed maturities                                                                                $    703,444    $    836,738
Equity securities
  Preferred stock                                                                                     103,299         133,401
  Common stock                                                                                        121,240         117,246
Other invested assets                                                                                 279,824         235,672
  Total investments                                                                                 1,207,807       1,323,057
Cash and cash equivalents                                                                            32,157          60,241
Equity in Erie Family Life Insurance Company                                                         59,116          57,162
Premiums receivable from policyholders                                                              260,720         247,187
Receivables from affiliates                                                                       1,176,013       1,220,058
Other assets                                                                                        139,415         131,656
 Total assets                                                                                   $ 2,875,228     $ 3,039,361
Liabilities and shareholders’ equity
Liabilities
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses                                                      $ 1,015,083     $ 1,073,570
Unearned premiums                                                                                   444,175         424,282
Other liabilities                                                                                   369,729         379,661
 Total liabilities                                                                                1,828,987       1,877,513
 Total shareholders’ equity                                                                       1,046,241       1,161,848
 Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity                                                     $ 2,875,228     $ 3,039,361
Book value per share                                                                            $     17.50     $     18.17
Shares outstanding                                                                                   59,782          63,952




Member • Erie Insurance Group
An Equal Opportunity Employer
Home Office • 100 Erie Insurance Place • Erie, PA 16530
814.870.2000 • www.erieinsurance.com

GF540 11/07 © 2007 Erie Indemnity Company

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erie insurance group 2007-third-quarter-report

  • 1. ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY 2007 THIRD QUARTER SHAREHOLDERS’ REPORT Erie Indemnity delivered good results in the third quarter, and Casualty Group”) write personal and commercial driven by strong performances in our underwriting lines property/casualty coverages exclusively through and investment operations. We’re continuing to see independent agents and pool their underwriting results. an improvement in the underlying factors of our The financial position or results of operations of the management operations as well. Despite rate reductions, Exchange are not consolidated with those of the Company. direct written premium remained flat due to increases The Company’s earnings are largely generated by fees in new policies in force and improvement in our based on direct written premiums of the Property and retention rate. We see this as a positive indication of our Casualty Group, the principal member of which is the performance in the ongoing soft market. Exchange. The Company, therefore, has a direct incentive John J. Brinling Jr. to protect the financial condition of the Exchange. The President and Chief Executive Officer members of the Property and Casualty Group pool their underwriting results. Under the pooling agreement, the About Erie Indemnity Company Exchange assumes 94.5 percent of the pool. Accordingly, the underwriting risk of the Property and Casualty Erie Indemnity Company (Company) is a Pennsylvania Group’s business is largely borne by the Exchange. business corporation formed in 1925 to be the attorney- Through the pool, the Company’s property/casualty in-fact for the Erie Insurance Exchange (Exchange), a subsidiaries currently assume 5.5 percent of the Property Pennsylvania-domiciled reciprocal insurance exchange. and Casualty Group’s underwriting results. As attorney-in-fact, the Company is required to perform certain services relating to the sales, underwriting and The Property and Casualty Group seeks to insure issuance of policies on behalf of the Exchange. For its standard and preferred risks primarily in private services as attorney-in-fact, the Company charges a passenger automobile, homeowners and small management fee calculated as a percentage, not to commercial lines, including workers’ compensation. The exceed 25 percent, of the direct and affiliated assumed Property and Casualty Group’s sole distribution channel premiums written by the Exchange. is its independent agency force, which consists of more than 1,900 agencies comprised of over 8,300 licensed The Company also operates as a property/casualty insurer representatives in 11 midwestern, mid-Atlantic and through its three insurance subsidiaries. The Exchange and southeastern states, and the District of Columbia. its property/casualty subsidiary and the Company’s three property/casualty subsidiaries (collectively, the “Property Erie Insurance Group Organizational Chart
  • 2. Corporate Information Stock transfer agent Financial information American Stock Transfer & Trust Company The Erie Indemnity Company submits a quarterly report 59 Maiden Lane to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Form Plaza Level 10-Q. Shareholders may obtain a copy of the Form 10-Q New York, NY 10038 report without charge by writing to: Chief Financial 800.937.5449 Officer, Erie Indemnity Company, 100 Erie Insurance Place, Erie, PA, 16530 or by visiting the Company’s Web Corporate headquarters site at www.erieinsurance.com. 100 Erie Insurance Place Common stock information Erie, PA 16530 814.870.2000 The Erie Indemnity Company’s Class A, non-voting common stock is traded on the NASDAQ Stock Market Internet address under the symbol “ERIE.” Quotations are available via major financial news sources. Financial statement filings, shareholder information, press releases and general news about the Company may also be accessed at: www.erieinsurance.com. Erie Indemnity Company Third Quarter 2007 Results As announced at our third quarter Webcast, the Company - an estimate of $4.3 million for a judgment against will no longer be distributing quarterly shareholder reports. us in a lawsuit arising from our termination of an The report contains redundant information that can easily agency, and be found in the quarterly earnings releases and Form 10-Q’s - an estimate of $3.7 million related to our portion of filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. If any additional compensation that may be due our you have any questions, please contact our Corporate former president and chief executive officer who Communications Department at 814.870.2000. voluntarily resigned in August 2007. Key points for the third quarter 2007: • Direct written premiums remained flat in the third quarter of 2007, increasing only 0.1%. Net income was $53.5 million for the third quarter of 2007, a 1.3 percent increase from $52.8 million for the • GAAP combined ratios of the insurance underwriting same period in 2006. Net income per share-diluted operations improved to 88.0 percent in the third increased to $0.87 per share, compared to $0.82 per quarter of 2007 from 89.2 percent for the quarter share in the comparable quarter in 2006. ended September 30, 2006, driven by favorable development in prior accident year loss and loss • Net operating income per share (excluding net realized adjustment expense reserves and low catastrophe gains or losses on investments and related taxes) losses. increased by 0.4 percent to $0.84 per share in the third quarter of 2007, from $0.83 per share, for the same • Net revenue from investment operations increased period one year ago. to $30.5 million, or 33.5 percent, from $22.9 million for the third quarters of 2007 and 2006, respectively, Management fee revenue increased 0.3 percent to $245.6 driven by improved equity in earnings of limited million, from $244.7 million for the same period one partnerships. year ago. Gross margins from management operations decreased to 16.0 percent in the third quarter of 2007 • The 2007 annualized effective tax rate of 32.9 percent from 20.5 percent in the third quarter of 2006. was benefited by $1.6 million to adjust our estimated current tax position to actual 2006 tax returns. • Third quarter 2007 results were effected by charges of $8.0 million, or $.09 per share, as follows: 2
  • 3. Key drivers of third quarter 2007 results-segment basis (Unaudited) (Unaudited) Three months ended September 30, Nine months ended September 30, (dollars in thousands) 2007 2006 Change 2007 2006 Change Management operations: Management fee revenue $ 245,585 $ 244,739 0.3% $ 730,691 $ 728,778 0.3% P&C Group* direct written premium (DWP) $ 981,539 $ 980,762 0.1% $ 2,927,965 $ 2,942,536 (0.5)% Drivers of P&C Group* DWP Policies in force—year-over-year 3,873,665 3,793,455 80,210 Policy retention—year-over-year 90.0% 89.2% 0.8 pts Avg. premium per policy—year-over-year $ 978 $ 1,011 $ (33) Insurance underwriting operations: GAAP combined ratio 88.0 89.2 (1.2) pts 87.3 91.7 (4.4) pts Prior accident year reserve development— (redundancy) deficiency** (7.8) (3.8) (4.0) pts (7.5) (3.8) (3.7) pts Catastrophe loss ratio 3.4 1.6 1.8 pts 2.0 3.7 (1.7) pts Investment operations: Net realized gains (losses) on investments $ 3,438 $ (872) NM $ 7,550 $ (721) NM Equity in earnings of limited partnerships $ 14,169 $ 10,848 30.6% $ 46,867 $ 29,049 61.3% * P&C Group—Erie Insurance Property and Casualty Group ** Excludes prior year salvage and subrogation recoveries NM—not meaningful Management operations Management fee revenue reflected modest growth of from $200.5 million for the same period in 2006. 0.3 percent, as direct written premiums of the Property Commission costs, the largest component of the cost of and Casualty Group were flat in the third quarter of 2007 management operations, increased 0.3 percent to $144.9 compared to the third quarter of 2006. The management million from $144.4 million in the third quarter 2006. fee rate being set at its maximum level of 25 percent for Normal and accelerated commissions increased $1.8 2007, up from 24.75 percent in 2006, contributed to the million, or 0.2 percent, driven by an increase in workers slight increase in management fee revenue compared to compensation commission rates and higher accelerated the third quarter of 2006. This higher management fee commissions due to more newly appointed agencies. A rate in 2007 increased management fee revenue by $7.3 change in the commission allowance for mid-term policy million, or $0.08 per share-diluted, for the nine months cancellations reduced the year-over-year third quarter ended September 30, 2007. 2007 commissions by $1.1 million when compared to 2006 and reflected the continued downward trend of Growth in policies in force is the result of the Company’s estimated mid-term policy cancellations. Management expansion of its independent agency force through recently approved an extension of the $50 private appointments as well as improved policyholder retention. passenger auto bonus to run through June 30, 2008. Through the first nine months of 2007, the Company The program, which pays a $50 bonus to agents for each appointed 176 new agencies, bringing our total agencies qualifying new private passenger auto policy issued, was to 1,937 at September 30, 2007. The Company expects originally planned to expire December 31, 2007. to meet its goal of 200 new agency appointments during 2007. In 2006, the Company appointed 139 new agencies. Third quarter cost of management operations, excluding commissions, increased 20.8 percent to $67.8 million Due to continued soft market conditions, the Property in 2007 from $56.1 million in 2006. Personnel costs and Casualty Group has been implementing rate increased by 18.1 percent in the third quarter of 2007 reductions to be more price competitive, which resulted due to the recognition of an estimate of any additional in a $72 million decrease in written premiums in the compensation that may be due our former president first nine months of 2007. An additional $14 million in and chief executive officer who voluntarily resigned in rate reductions are forecast for the remainder of the August 2007, an increase in the projected payouts for year. The most significant rate reductions have been in management incentive plans, and an increase in salary the homeowners and private passenger auto lines of expense from higher average pay rates offset by lower business. We are estimating an increase of $3 million in staffing levels. All other operating costs increased 52.6 premium rate actions for 2008. percent for the three months ended September 30, 2007, The cost of management operations increased 6.0 driven by a charge of $4.3 million for a judgment against percent to $212.6 million in the third quarter of 2007, us in a lawsuit related to an agency termination. 3
  • 4. Insurance underwriting operations Liquidity and capital resources The Company’s insurance underwriting operations In the third quarter of 2007, we purchased 1,903,201 generated gains of $6.2 million and $5.7 million in shares of our Class A nonvoting common stock separate the third quarters of 2007 and 2006, respectively. The from our current stock repurchase program from the Property and Casualty Group’s adjusted statutory F. William Hirt Estate for a total purchase price of combined ratio was 82.3 and 83.7 in the third quarter of $99.0 million, or $52.04 per share. Mr. Hirt, our former 2007 and 2006, respectively. Chairman of the Board, passed away in July 2007. In conjunction with our authorized stock repurchase plan, • Earned premiums declined $1.1 million for the third we repurchased an additional 1,670,384 shares of our quarter of 2007 reflecting the trend of rate decreases. outstanding Class A common stock at a cost of $89.0 • Development of prior accident year loss reserves, million, or $53.30 per share, during the third quarter of excluding salvage and subrogation recoveries, 2007. During the first nine months of 2007, 2,266,033 continued to be favorable in the third quarter 2007, shares were repurchased under this plan at a cost improving the loss ratio 7.8 points, or $4.0 million. of $120.8 million. Total shares repurchased through September 30, 2007, including the repurchase from the • Catastrophe losses incurred for the third quarter of F. William Hirt Estate, were 4,169,234. In September 2007, 2007 and 2006 were $1.8 million and $0.9 million, our Board of Directors approved a continuation of the respectively. current stock repurchase program for an additional $100 The majority of this positive underwriting result in million through December 31, 2008. We have $109 million the third quarter of 2007 was impacted by favorable in repurchase authority remaining under this plan. developments of reserves on prior accident quarters for automobile bodily injury and uninsured/underinsured motorist (UM/UIM) bodily injury. Improvements in accident quarter loss ratios in these lines were a result of improved frequency and severity trends. The third quarter 2006 favorable development of 3.8 points was driven by improvements in the UM/UIM bodily injury and workers compensation lines of business, partially due to more effective claims handling. The improvement in the workers compensation line of business was due to improved severity trends. Investment operations “Safe Harbor” Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Certain forward-looking Net revenue from investment operations increased 33.5 statements contained herein involve risks and uncertainties. percent in the third quarter of 2007 to $30.5 million These forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current compared to $22.9 million in the third quarter of 2006. views about future events, are based on assumptions and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that Net realized gains on investments increased $4.3 million may cause results to differ materially from those anticipated in in the third quarter of 2007 from our common stock those statements. Many of the factors that will determine future holdings. Included in net realized gains on investments events or achievements are beyond our ability to control or are impairment charges of $3.0 million and $1.6 million predict. These statements include certain discussions relating during the third quarters of 2007 and 2006, respectively. to management fee revenue, cost of management operations, Impairment charges recorded on fixed maturity and underwriting, premium and investment income volume, business equity securities during the first nine months of 2007 and strategies, profitability and business relationships and other 2006 were $5.7 million and $5.0 million, respectively. business activities during 2007 and beyond. The Company assumes no obligation whatsoever to publicly update or revise Equity in earnings of limited partnerships increased by any forward-looking statements. $3.3 million in the third quarter of 2007 due to market value appreciation. 4
  • 5. CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (Dollars in thousands, except in per share data) Three months ended Nine months ended September 30 September 30 2007 2006 2007 2006 (unaudited) (unaudited) Operating revenue Management fee revenue—net $ 232,089 $ 231,388 $ 690,432 $ 688,723 Premiums earned 51,892 53,017 155,988 160,868 Service agreement revenue 7,470 7,410 22,186 21,508 Total operating revenue 291,451 291,815 868,606 871,099 Operating expenses Cost of management operations 200,913 189,536 576,768 562,629 Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred 30,766 32,573 92,789 101,261 Policy acquisition and other underwriting expenses 13,090 12,325 36,779 38,905 Total operating expenses 244,769 234,434 706,336 702,795 Investment income—unaffiliated Investment income, net of expenses 12,233 12,215 40,350 41,818 Net realized gains (losses) on investments 3,438 ( 872) 7,550 ( 721) Equity in earnings of limited partnerships 14,169 10,848 46,867 29,049 Total investment income—unaffiliated 29,840 22,191 94,767 70,146 Income before income taxes and equity in earnings of Erie Family Life Insurance Company 76,522 79,572 257,037 238,450 Provision for income taxes 23,669 27,421 79,767 82,513 Equity in earnings of Erie Family Life Insurance Company, net of tax 643 634 3,074 2,569 Net income $ 53,496 $ 52,785 $ 180,344 $ 158,506 Net income per share: Class A common stock—basic $ 0.97 $ 0.91 $ 3.17 $ 2.67 Class A common stock—diluted 0.87 0.82 2.87 2.41 Class B common stock—basic and diluted 145.92 139.34 482.27 404.46 Weighted average shares outstanding: Class A common stock—basic 55,183,547 57,873,922 56,727,315 59,179,328 Class A common stock—diluted 61,370,219 64,129,350 62,935,587 65,717,956 Class B common stock—basic and diluted 2,559 2,573 2,568 2,691 Dividends declared per share: Class A common stock $ 0.40 $ 0.36 $ 1.20 $ 1.08 Class B common stock 60.00 54.00 180.00 162.00 5
  • 6. CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS—SEGMENT BASIS (Amounts in thousands, except in per share data) Three months ended Nine months ended September 30 September 30 2007 2006 2007 2006 (unaudited) (unaudited) Management operations Management fee revenue $ 245,585 $ 244,739 $ 730,691 $ 728,778 Service agreement revenue 7,470 7,410 22,186 21,508 Total revenue from management operations 253,055 252,149 752,877 750,286 Cost of management operations 212,601 200,498 610,377 595,351 Income from management operations 40,454 51,651 142,500 154,935 Insurance underwriting operations Premiums earned 51,892 53,017 155,988 160,868 Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred 30,766 32,573 92,789 101,261 Policy acquisition and other underwriting expenses 14,898 14,714 43,429 46,238 Total losses and expenses 45,664 47,287 136,218 147,499 Underwriting income 6,228 5,730 19,770 13,369 Investment operations Investment income, net of expenses 12,233 12,215 40,350 41,818 Net realized gains (losses) on investments 3,438 ( 872) 7,550 ( 721) Equity in earnings of limited partnerships 14,169 10,848 46,867 29,049 Equity in earnings of Erie Family Life Insurance Company 692 682 3,304 2,763 Net revenue from investment operations 30,532 22,873 98,071 72,909 Income before income taxes 77,214 80,254 260,341 241,213 Provision for income taxes 23,718 27,469 79,997 82,707 Net income $ 53,496 $ 52,785 $ 180,344 $ 158,506 Net income per share—Class A basic $ 0.97 $ 0.91 $ 3.17 $ 2.67 Net income per share—Class A diluted 0.87 0.82 2.87 2.41 Net income per share—Class B basic and diluted 145.92 139.34 482.27 404.46 Weighted average shares outstanding— Class A diluted 61,370 64,129 62,936 65,718 Amounts presented on a segment basis are gross of intercompany/intersegment items 6
  • 7. RECONCILIATION OF OPERATING INCOME TO NET INCOME We use operating income to evaluate the results of Definition of non-GAAP and operations. It reveals trends in our management services, operating measures insurance underwriting and investment operations that We believe that investors’ understanding of our perfor- may be obscured by the net effects of realized capital mance is enhanced by the disclosure of the following non- gains and losses. Realized capital gains and losses may GAAP financial measure. Our method of calculating this vary significantly between periods and are generally measure may differ from those used by other companies driven by business decisions and economic developments and therefore comparability may be limited. such as capital market condition, the timing of which is unrelated to our management services and insurance Operating income is net income excluding realized underwriting processes. We believe it is useful for capital gains and losses and related federal income investors to evaluate these components separately and in taxes. Equity in earnings or losses of Erie Family Life the aggregate when reviewing our performance. We are Insurance Company and equity in earnings or losses of aware that the price to earnings multiple commonly used limited partnerships are not excluded from the calculation by investors as a forward-looking valuation technique uses of operating income. Both of these categories include operating income as the denominator. Operating income the respective investment’s realized capital gains and should not be considered as a substitute for net income losses, as well as unrealized gains and losses, as these and does not reflect our overall profitability. investments are accounted for under the equity method. The following table reconciles operating income and net Net income is the GAAP measure that is most directly income for the periods ended September 30, 2007 and 2006: comparable to operating income. Three months ended Nine months ended September 30 September 30 (unaudited) (unaudited) (in thousands, except per share data) 2007 2006 2007 2006 Operating income $ 51,261 $ 53,352 $ 175,436 $ 158,975 Net realized gains (losses) on investments 3,438 ( 872) 7,550 ( 721) Income tax (expense) benefit on realized gains (losses) ( 1,203) 305 ( 2,642) 252 Realized gains (losses), net of income taxes 2,235 ( 567) 4,908 ( 469) Net income $ 53,496 $ 52,785 $ 180,344 $ 158,506 Three months ended Nine months ended September 30 September 30 (unaudited) (unaudited) Per Class A Share—Diluted 2007 2006 2007 2006 Operating income $ .84 $ 0.83 $ 2.79 $ 2.42 Net realized gains (losses) on investments 0.05 ( 0.01) 0.12 ( 0.01) Income tax (expense) benefit on realized gains (losses) ( 0.02) 0.00 ( 0.04) 0.00 Realized gains (losses), net of income taxes 0.03 ( 0.01) 0.08 ( 0.01) Net income $ 0.87 $ 0.82 $ 2.87 $ 2.41 7
  • 8. CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF FINANCIAL POSITION (Amounts in thousands, except per share data) September 30 December 31 2007 2006 (unaudited) Assets Investments Fixed maturities $ 703,444 $ 836,738 Equity securities Preferred stock 103,299 133,401 Common stock 121,240 117,246 Other invested assets 279,824 235,672 Total investments 1,207,807 1,323,057 Cash and cash equivalents 32,157 60,241 Equity in Erie Family Life Insurance Company 59,116 57,162 Premiums receivable from policyholders 260,720 247,187 Receivables from affiliates 1,176,013 1,220,058 Other assets 139,415 131,656 Total assets $ 2,875,228 $ 3,039,361 Liabilities and shareholders’ equity Liabilities Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses $ 1,015,083 $ 1,073,570 Unearned premiums 444,175 424,282 Other liabilities 369,729 379,661 Total liabilities 1,828,987 1,877,513 Total shareholders’ equity 1,046,241 1,161,848 Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity $ 2,875,228 $ 3,039,361 Book value per share $ 17.50 $ 18.17 Shares outstanding 59,782 63,952 Member • Erie Insurance Group An Equal Opportunity Employer Home Office • 100 Erie Insurance Place • Erie, PA 16530 814.870.2000 • www.erieinsurance.com GF540 11/07 © 2007 Erie Indemnity Company