This document discusses the importance of considering rival causes when determining the cause of an event or outcome. It provides examples of how to detect potential rival causes, including considering alternative ways to interpret the evidence, what else may have contributed to the findings or act, and how the situation may look from a different perspective. The document emphasizes that events often have multiple contributory causes rather than a single cause, and cautions against assuming a causal relationship between associated events without considering other possible explanations.

1. C H A P T E R 1 0
Are There Rival Causes?

2. Rival Causes
Another reasonable
explanation that can
explain why a certain
outcome occurred.
There can be other
reasons.

3. Rival Causes
 The same evidence can be
consistent with a different
analysis/outcome.

4. Clues for Detecting Rival Causes
 Can I think of any
other way to interpret
the evidence?
 What else might have
caused this act or
these findings?

5. Ask Yourself
 If I looked at this from
another point of view,
what might I see as
important causes?
 If this interpretation is
incorrect, what other
interpretation might make
sense?

6. The Cause or A Cause
 A common error is to look for a simple, single
cause of an event when it is really the result of
many contributory causes.

7. Example
 Only 18 percent of U.S. households currently subscribe to
broadband Internet services such as cable modems or
DSL, according to TNS Intersearch. Most people are
satisfied with their dial-up connections.

8. The Cause or A Cause
People may be sticking with their dial up
connections for any or all of the following reasons:
 Reliable broadband is not available in their area
 They don’t understand the advantages of
broadband
 Broadband is more expensive to install with
higher monthly charges.
 Their older computer is not equipped for a
broadband connection.

9. Detecting Rival Causes can help us. . .
 Better react to causal
conclusions in:
 Our personal relationships
 Past or ongoing events
 Results in research
findings

10. Personal Relationships
 Student talking to a friend: It has been over 24 hours
and my boyfriend has not returned my text message.
He must be mad at me.

11. A World Event
 According to news reports, on December 14, 2012,
Adam Lanza, 20, fatally shot 20 children and 6 adult
staff members in a mass murder at Sandy Hook
Elementary school in Newton, Connecticut. Before
driving to the school, Lanza had killed his mother at
their Newton home.

12. Several Possible Motives Emerged
 The shooter’s actions may have been triggered by
anger towards his mother for previously having him
committed.
 Playing violent video games after finding thousands
of dollars of worth in his home.
 Lanza had been prescribed antipsychotic drugs,
which were linked to cause impulse-control disorder
and depression in some users.

13. R E A D E X A M P L E P R O V I D E D
Research Study

14. Watch out
 Researchers find differences between groups and
conclude that the differences support their
hypothesis.

15. Example
 Ms. Lane’s online CIS1 students have higher total scores on
average than the night face-to-face CIS1 class. Both classes
are given the same assignments and tests. Online learning
is more effective for introductory computer classes.

16. Differences Between Groups
 Problem: research groups almost always differ in
more than one important way.
 Students who sign up for an online class may be more
familiar with computers to start with.
 Students who are successful in online classes have to be
self-motivated and may get higher grades in general.
 Students who take courses at night may have less time to
spend and the 3 hr class time is very long to pay attention.

17.  We have a tendency to
“see” events that are
associated or that “go
together” as events that
cause one another.

18. Chain of Events
 Many events that occur close together in time do
not do so because one causes the other.
Hewlett Packard’s stock price went from over 60
when Carly Fiorina became CEO in July 1999 to
28 today. Putting a woman in charge ruined the
company.
(Fall 2005)

19. Truth or Coincidence?
 Timing of events may be just a coincidence. Or
there may be a real connection!
 The prices of most technology stocks have declined since
1999. Can we be sure that HP’s stock price is due to Ms.
Fiorina’s mismanagement?
 Maybe there were other factors such as increased
competition?
 It’s possible she really is an incompetent CEO.
 Can you generalize to all female CEOs?
Carly lost her job in Feb. 2005