Navegar por la complejidad de los sistemas modernos presenta desafíos únicos que requieren enfoques innovadores y no lineales. Por eso, exploramos cómo las carteras de proyectos de experimentación pueden ayudar a enfrentar problemas complejos que no tienen una solución única o tecnicista, como por ejemplo el cambio climático, la desigualdad social, la salud pública o la seguridad alimentaria. Presentación del diálogo (im)probable con Giulio Quaggiotto.

1. Portfolios thinking & doing
Retooling institutions for the polycrisis
@gquaggiotto
Image:
IDR
Online

2. India’s latest export?

5. • Long term intent – “the infinite game”
• Start from the nature of the problem, not internal structure [intra-
dept task forces]
• Work with what you have [“exoskeleton”]
• Multiple parallel experiments/don’t put all your eggs into one basket
[outsourced R&D]
• The first iteration is [almost] always wrong - Premium on agility and
learning
• Co-evolution
Tackling a systemic issue

7. Single point solutions, “pray and spray”

8. Plaster fixes

9. • Long term intent – “the infinite game”
• Probes
• Start from the nature of the problem, not your taxonomy
• Work with what you have
• Multiple parallel experiments/don’t put all your eggs into one basket
• The first iteration is [almost] always wrong - Premium on agility and
learning
• Co-evolution
The typical “project”

10. Change with greater purpose
Source: PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE LA INNOVACIÓN EN LOS AYUNTAMIENTOS ESPAÑOLES, 2024

12. Source: Edelman Trust Barometer 2024
“Demosclerosis”

13. How can we get our institutions to think &
act like Priyush?

17. Is it possible to change institutions from
within?

18. Source: UNDP

19. Change with greater purpose
Risk vs uncertainty
Source:
Thomas
Cern

20. A situation of not-knowing in which all 3 of the following are known:
1. all possible outcomes
2. all actions you could take
3. the probabilities of each outcome based on your actions
Source: Vaughn Tan, How to think more clearly about risk
Risk

22. Source: Vaughn Tan, The uncertainty mindset

23. “False” certainty

24. Source: Vaughn Tan, The uncertainty mindset

25. • 5-year plans
• KPIs and objectives
• Best practices & benchmarking
• Cost-benefit analysis & probabilistic modeling
• Logframes
• Specs based procurement and RFPs
• PRINCE & inductive/deductive reasoning
• Narrow problem definition
The dominant risk mindset

26. “Artefacts of certainty”

27. “Writing everything down”

29. The 3 most difficult words to say in
government…

32. An embracing uncertainty mindset

33. “Any system is perfectly designed to deliver the
results it delivers”

34. 1. Power
2. Identity
3. Coherence creates leverage
4. Back-office vs front office

37. 1. Power
2. Identity
3. Coherence creates leverage
4. Back office vs front office

38. Source: Fostering innovation in the public sector, OECD

39. 1. Power
2. Identity
3. Coherence creates leverage
4. Back office vs front office

40. Creating islands of coherence

41. “Traditionally, we define the ideal future state (the goal) and try to
get there, which only works when you have a high level of
predictability.
In complexity, we describe the present and see what is possible to
change, defining a direction, not a destination, setting ourselves on
a discovery journey”.
- D. Snowden
Work with what you have

42. Sensemaking

43. Uncertainty mindset: expanding not reducing
options
Source: Rowan Conway

44. 1. Power
2. Identity
3. Coherence creates leverage
4. Back office vs front office

46. Dynamic portfolio management

49. Working with uncertainty – abductive thinking

50. How can we get our institutions to think &
act like Priyush?

51. Reimagining decision making processes

52. 4Ps “decision making
rooms”
in each entity
Monthly check-ins
• Proven (what data do we
have)?
• Problematic (what is
plausible, but might now
work?)
• Promising (what is
emerging?)
• Patterns (what patterns
do we see?) Moving from reporting once a
year to a monthly discussion
around the data available
This is a room which includes
different types of backgrounds:
Data People, Strategists,
Designers, Front-Liners, officials
The 4Ps room

54. “Missions managers”

55. Thank you
@gquaggiotto
Image:
IDR
Online