These slides show how the falling costs of energy and transportation systems have been primarily from increases in scale. Increases in the scale of steam, internal combustion, and jet engines along with steam turbines and other electrical generating plants drove dramatic reductions in the cost of energy in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Similar cost reductions occurred as the scale of locomotives, ships, vehicles, and planes were increased. However, now that the limits to this scaling have been reached and carbon emissions have become a major problem, new sources of energy must be found. Electric vehicles, magnetic levitating trains, and fusion are some of the new concepts that may become economically feasible. Another set of slides addresses solar cells and wind turbines. These slides are based on a forthcoming book entitled “Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries and they are the ninth session in a course entitled “Analyzing Hi-Tech Opportunities.”

1. How Might Technological Change be
Creating New Opportunities in
Energy and Transportation Systems?
9th Session of MT5009
A/Prof Jeffrey Funk
Division of Engineering and Technology
Management
National University of Singapore

2. Objectives
• What has and is driving improvements in cost and
performance of energy & transportation systems?
• Can we use such information to
– identify new types of energy & transportation systems?
– analyze potential for improvements in these new
systems?
– compare new and old systems now and in future?
– better understand when new systems might become
technically and economically feasible?
– analyze the opportunities created by these new
systems?
– understand technology change in general

3. This is the Ninth Session in MT5009
Session Technology
1 Objectives and overview of course
2 Four methods of achieving improvements in performance and cost: 1)
improving efficiency; 2) radical new processes; 3) geometric scaling; 4)
improvements in “key” components (e.g., ICs)
3 Semiconductors, ICs, new forms of transistors, electronic systems
4 Bio-electronics, tissue engineering, and health care
5 MEMS, nano-technology and programmable matter
6 Telecommunications and Internet
7 Human-computer interfaces, virtual and augmented reality
8 Lighting and displays
9 Energy and transportation
10 Solar cells and wind turbines

4. Outline for Tonight
• Engines
– Efficiency of engines
– Jet engines
– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines
• Transportation Equipment
– Trains
– Ships
– Aircraft
– Vehicles
• Electricity Generation
– Fossil fuels and steam turbines
– Other sources (of electricity) and issues

5. Technology Paradigms for Engines
Type of Basic Operation Basic Methods of
Engine Improvement within
Technology Paradigm
Steam engine Power is generated and work Increase efficiency
(from early done by pressurized steam
1700s) pushing against a piston Higher temperature,
pressure, and size
Internal Power is generated and work (geometric scaling)
combustion done by an explosion and
engine (from subsequent expansion of Better controls over fuel, air,
mid-1800s) gaseous fuel pushing against a and heat
piston
Jet engine Combustion of high
(from mid- temperature and pressure fuel
1900s) provides thrust

6. Efficiency of Engines
• Efficiency of heat engine = 1 – Tout/Tin
• Increased temperatures often require
– better materials
– often higher pressures
– often larger scale
• These engines propel transportation device. For
them, we are often interested in power density or
miles per gallon. This also requires reductions in
– weight
– friction
– etc.

7. Figure 2.2 Improvements in Maximum Efficiency of Engines and Turbines
Combined
50% cycle gas
turbine
Source:
adapted
from (Smil,
2010, Figure
40% 1.2) and
Thermal (Edwards et
al, 2010) Diesel
Efficiency engines
30%
Gas
turbine
20%
Steam
turbine
10%
Steam
Engines Gasoline internal
combustion engines
0
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

8. Progress of energy transportation (Watts per kg)
Source: Koh and Magee, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 75(6): 735-758

9. Progress of energy transportation (Watts per liter).
Source: Koh and Magee, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 75(6): 735-758

10. Source: Vaclav Smil

11. Increases in Scale: Larger Scale Often Leads to Higher
Temperatures, Pressures, and thus Efficiencies
1010
Power Steam
turbines
(W)
108
Source:
adapted
from
(Smil,
2010 Gas
106 Figure turbines
2.11)
104 Steam Internal
Engines combustion
engines
102
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

12. Outline for Tonight
• Engines
– Efficiency of engines
– Jet engines
– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines
• Transportation Equipment
– Trains
– Ships
– Aircraft
– Vehicles
• Electricity Generation
– Fossil fuels and steam turbines
– Other sources and issues

13. Jet Engines
• Combustion of high temperature and pressure fuel
provides thrust
– in accordance with Newton's laws of motion
• This broad definition of jet engines includes
– Turbojets, turbofans, rockets, ramjets, pulse jets, pump-jets
• Jet engines replaced piston ones partly because
– pistons can only move so fast
– propellers are limited by speed of sound and require dense air
– air causes friction (higher altitudes have thinner air and thus
less friction)
– thus jet engines (and rockets) can potentially go much faster
than piston engines

14. Jet Engines
Low-Bypass High-Bypass
Low-bypass ratio leads to high exhaust High bypass ratio leads to low exhaust
speed, high flight speeds, and low speed, lower flight speeds, and higher
fuel efficiency fuel efficiency
About 1.5 for fighter jets About 17 for commercial airliners

15. Jet Engines
• Overall Efficiency =
thermal efficiency x
propulsive efficiency
• Propulsive Efficiency
= 2Vf/(Vf + Ve)
where
Vf = flight velocity
Ve = exhaust velocity
Vf and Ve are
determined by the
bypass ratio
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Chapter 7

16. Increases in pressure
and temperature led
to higher efficiencies
(see next slide) and
lower fuel consumption
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Chapter 7

17. Past and Future Efforts to Increase Efficiency
Thermal Efficiency
Propulsive Efficiency
Unducted fans (UDF) are needed to increase bypass ratios
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Chapter 7

18. Outline for Tonight
• Engines
– Efficiency of engines
– Jet engines
– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines
• Transportation Equipment
– Trains
– Ships
– Aircraft
– Vehicles
• Electricity Generation
– Fossil fuels and steam turbines
– Other sources and issues

19. Larger Scale Often Leads to Higher Temperatures and
Pressures: Maximum Scale of Engines and Turbines
1010
Power Steam
(W) Source: turbines
adapted
108 from
(Smil,
2010
Figure
2.11)
Gas
106 turbines
104 Steam Internal
Engines combustion
engines
102
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

20. From 10 HP (horse power)
in 1817
To 1,300,000 HP today
(1000 MW)
Steam engine
Their modern day
equivalent: steam
turbine

21. From ¾ horsepower in 1885 (Benz)
to world’s largest internal
combustion engine (90,000 HP)
Produced by Wartsila-Sulzer
and used in the Emma Maersk
(a ship)

22. Benefits of Larger Scale in Engines
Cost of cylinder
or piston is function
of cylinder’s surface
area (πDH) Height
of
Output of engine
cylinder
is function of
cylinder’s (H)
volume (πD2H/4)
Result: output rises
faster than costs as
diameter is increased
Diameter of cylinder (D)

23. Benefits from Larger Engines
• Not just internal combustion engines (ICE), any
form of engine that has pistons and cylinders
• Steam engines may benefit more from increases
in scale than do ICE since they have a boiler and
boilers benefit from increases in scale
– Like reaction vessels, costs increase as a function of
surface area and output increases as a function of
volume
• Other benefits of scaling
– Higher temperatures and pressures have higher
efficiencies
– Larger engines enable higher temperatures and higher
pressures

24. Comparing Price Per Horsepower for Smaller
and Larger Engines
• In terms of price per horsepower (HP),
– A 20 HP steam engine was 1/3 that of a 2 HP engine
in 1800 (Source: von Tunzelman)
– Honda’s 225 HP marine engine is currently 26% of its
2.3 HP engine (price per HP)
• Extrapolating to the complete range of engines
– largest steam engines in locomotives had thousands of
HP and largest steam turbines have 1.3 million HP
– the first (3/4 HP) and now largest (90,000 HP) ICE
– the largest engine would be less than 1% the price per
HP of the smallest engine

25. Limits to Paradigms for Engines
• Limits to thermal efficiencies (as defined by
thermodynamics) have almost been reached
• Limits to scaling (Higher temperature, pressure,
and size) have almost been reached
• Limits to complexity
– First jet engine in 1936: a few hundred parts
– Modern jet engines: as many as 22,000 parts
– This complexity raises costs!
• But problems with emissions (carbon dioxide,
lead, nitrous and sulfur dioxides) drive the need for
new technologies – what could they be?

26. Outline for Tonight
• Engines
– Efficiency of engines
– Jet engines
– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines
• Transportation Equipment
– Trains
– Ships
– Aircraft
– Vehicles
• Electricity Generation
– Fossil fuels and steam turbines
– Other sources and issues

27. Technology Paradigms for Transportation Technologies
Technology Basic Operation Basic Methods of
Improvement within
Technology Paradigm
Locomotive Output from steam engine turns Geometric Scaling
wheels and wheels run on track
Steam ship Output from steam engine (and later Aerodynamic designs
ICE) turns propeller
Lighter materials
Electric trains Electricity powers the rotation of
wheels through motors
Automobiles Output from ICE or electric motor
turns wheels and wheels move over
ground
Aircraft Pushed forward by output from
internal combustion engine (later by
jet engine) and wings provide “lift”
ICE: internal combustion engine

28. Reaching Limits for Transportation Speed
Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes & Hillebrand, 2006, p. 37

29. Scaling in Transportation Equipment
• In trains, ships, planes, and vehicles
– Basically long cylinder
– Construction/production cost is proportional to surface area
while output (people miles) is proportional to volume (and
speed)
– Benefits from increasing the scale of engines supports
increases in scale of transportation equipment
– Although operating cost rise with increases in weight and
speed, initially they don’t rise as fast as output does (but
diseconomies usually emerge)
• Results from increases in scale
– Cost of transportation dropped dramatically in the 1800s
and 1900s as large trains, ships, planes and buses were
constructed (also information technology and other factors)

30. From tens of horsepower, miles
per hour in single digits, and 70
passengers in 1804
To thousands of horsepower,
thousands of passengers, and
126 miles per hour in 1938

31. A New Concept (Lighter Electric Trains) and a Big Train:
8000 KW of Power, 236 miles per hour, and
thousands of passengers
It appears that the limits of scale have been reached.

32. Outline for Tonight
• Engines
– Efficiency of engines
– Jet engines
– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines
• Transportation Equipment
– Trains
– Ships
– Aircraft
– Vehicles
• Electricity Generation
– Fossil fuels and steam turbines
– Other sources and issues

33. Steamships
First patent received One of First Steamships
in 1700s in America - 1815

34. From 1,340 tons in 1838, 10 miles
per hour, and 48 passengers in 1838
(28 Tons per passenger)
To 225,000 tons in 2009, 26 miles
per hour, and 5300 passengers in 2009
(42 Tons per passenger)
Ocean-
Travelling
Steamships

35. From 1807 tons in 1878
To 500,000 tons in 2009
Oil Tankers

36. Benefits of Scaling in Oil Tankers and
Freight Vessels
Scale Dimension Oil Tankers Freight Vessels
Large Scale Price $120 Million $59 Million
Capacity 265,000 tons 170,000 tons
Price per capacity $453 per ton $347 per ton
Small Scale Price $43 Million $28 Million
Capacity 38,500 tons 40,000 tons
Price per capacity $1,116 per ton $700 per ton
Source: UN study of shipping equipment, 2009

37. Outline for Tonight
• Engines
– Efficiency of engines
– Jet engines
– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines
• Transportation Equipment
– Trains
– Ships
– Aircraft
– Vehicles
• Electricity Generation
– Fossil fuels and steam turbines
– Other sources and issues

38. Geometric Scaling in Jet Engines (1)
• Combustion chambers (basically a cylinder)
benefit from larger scale
– costs rise with surface area
– output rises with volume

39. Jet Engines
I-A
From 1,250 pounds of thrust in 1942 (GE’s I-A) to
127,000 pounds of thrust today (GE90-115B)
Power (horsepower) = thrust (lbf) x speed (feet/second) / 550
From 660 (at 200mph) to 170,000 (at 500 mph) horsepower

40. Geometric Scaling in Jet Engines (2)
• Other benefits from larger scale were discussed
earlier tonight:
– Larger engines enable higher temperatures, pressures
– Higher temperatures enable higher thermal efficiencies
• Larger engines are also needed because aircraft
benefits from increases in scale
– Aircraft cost per passenger is lower for larger than
smaller planes
– Labor costs are lower and fuel efficiencies are higher
for larger aircraft

41. From DC-1 in 1931
(12 passengers, 180 mph)
To A-380 in 2005
(900* passengers, 560 mph)
*Economy only mode

42. Current Prices per Capacity for Large and
Small Scale Oil Tankers and Aircraft
Scale Dimension Oil Tankers Aircraft
Large Price $120 Million $346.3 Million
Scale (A380)
Capacity 265,000 tons 900 passengers
Price per $453 per ton $384,777 per
capacity passenger
Small Price $43 Million $62.5 Million
Scale (A318)
Capacity 38,500 tons 132 passengers
Price per $1,116 per ton $473,348 per
capacity passenger

44. Outline for Tonight
• Engines
– Efficiency of engines
– Jet engines
– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines
• Transportation Equipment
– Trains
– Ships
– Aircraft
– Vehicles
• Electricity Generation
– Fossil fuels and steam turbines
– Other sources and issues

45. From First Benz in 1885 (1600 cc, ¾
hp, 8 mph, 13 km/h, 1 passenger)
To: Model T (2900 cc, 20 hp) in 1909
And: BMW mini-coupe (218 HP,
1600 cc, 120 mph)
Not benefiting from scaling because
automobiles are designed only for a
few passengers!!!

46. From First Benz in 1885 (single
passenger, ¾ hp, 8 mph)
To 300 passenger bus in China with
over 300 horsepower
Buses do benefit
from scaling!!
But have limits
been reached?

47. From First Benz in 1885 (single
passenger, ¾ hp, 8 mph)
To 300 tons of material with 3000
horsepower in 21st century
Trucks also benefit
from scaling
But have limits
been reached?

48. Results from benefits of geometric
scaling for land, sea, and air
transportation in U.S.
• Transportation share of U.S. GDP dropped by
factor of 10
• Freight bill divided by U.S. GDP dropped by 50%
• Dollars per ton-mile for rail in U.S. dropped
almost by factor of 10
• Globalization is partly a result of scaling in
transportation equipment (and IT, containerized
shipping, and changes in political systems)

49. (for U.S.)
Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science
83: 197–228 (2004), Edward L. Glaeser, Janet E. Kohlhase

50. For U.S.
Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science
83: 197–228 (2004), Edward L. Glaeser, Janet E. Kohlhase

51. (only for rail in U.S.)
Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science
83: 197–228 (2004), Edward L. Glaeser, Janet E. Kohlhase

52. But Increasing the Scale of Transportation Equipment
Required Better Components and Advances in Science
• Bigger locomotives and steam ships required
– Bigger rail lines, ports, and canals
– Lighter and stronger materials for them and their engines
– Better tolerances for engines
• Electric trains required
– Cheaper electricity, better motors (from the late 19th century)
• Automobiles and aircraft required
– Lighter materials for them and their engines
– Better tolerances for engines
– For aircraft,
• expensive composites for the fuselage and engines
• larger aircraft have required larger terminals

53. Limits to Efficiencies and Scaling
• Are limits to improvements in efficiencies being
approached?
• Are limits to physical spaces being approached for
– rail lines and terminals?
– shipping lanes and ports?
– air space and terminals?
– roads and parking?
• Are limits to making transportation equipment
lighter being approached?
• If there are fewer opportunities than how can we
solve problems with emissions?

54. How About Electric Vehicles?
• The main difference between conventional
and electric vehicles is the
– replacement of the internal combustion
engine and the gasoline tank
– with a battery and a motor
• How much can a battery’s
– energy storage density be improved?
– cost be reduced through increases in scale of
production equipment?

55. Improvements in Energy Storage Density per kilogram.
Source: Koh and Magee, 2005

56. Improvements in Energy Storage Density per unit cost.
Source: Koh and Magee, 2005

57. Source: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now and In the Future,
presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm, Sweden, October 19-20.

58. Batteries
• Can better materials be found?
• Materials with
– higher energy or power densities per volume or weight?
– lower costs per volume or weight?
• Will these better materials enable the cost and
performance (e.g., range and acceleration) of
electric vehicles to be rapidly improved?
• Or will the costs fall as the scale of production is
increased (Lowe, M, Tokuoka, S, Trigg, T, Gereffi, G 2010. Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric
Vehicles, Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness, Duke University, October 5)
– Lithium-ion batteries for cars are different from those for
electronic products
– Also have lower production volumes and higher costs

59. What About Batteries that Benefit from
Reductions in Scale
• Thin-film ones that benefit from geometric scaling in the
same that solar cells do
• Nano-scale ones
– While conventional batteries separate the two electrodes by thick
barrier, nano-scale batteries place the electrodes close to each
other with nano-wires and other nano-devices
– By reducing the diameter of the electrode or catalyst particles, the
ratio of surface area-to volume goes up and thus the rate of
exchange between particles increases
• Remember the discussion of nano-technology where
surface area-to volume ratio was emphasized
– Some technologies (phenomenon) benefit from increases in this
ratio
Sources: 1) Economist, 2011. The power of the press. January 20, 2011, p. 73; 2) Scientists Reveal Battery Behavior at
the Nanoscale, Science News, September 15, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100914151043.htm.
3) Building Better Batteries from the Nanoscale Up, Scientific computing,
http://www.scientificcomputing. com/news-DS-Building-Better-Batteries-from-the-Nanoscale -Up-121010.aspx,

60. What About Flywheels?
• Energy densities are already high, have steeper
slopes and improvements projected to continue
• Energy is function of mass times velocity squared,
lighter materials (carbon fiber) enable higher
speeds: Rapid improvements are occurring
• Better for hybrids than are batteries because twice
as much energy is converted during braking than
with batteries
• Also cheaper: One-fourth the price?
• Now used in Formula 1 cars
• Challenge is reliability with required vacuums
Source: The Economist Technology Quarterly, December 3, 2011

61. How About Magnetic Levitating
(MagLev) Trains?
• A magnetic field enables a train to float above the
tracks, thus eliminating friction
• Problem is high cost of magnets
• Potential solution is superconducting magnets
– Need higher temperature superconducting materials
(currently best are about 90 degrees Kelvin)
– Difficult to mold ceramic materials into wires
• nano-techniques help, prices have fallen by 90% since 1990s
• they remain ten times higher than copper cables ($15-
25/kiloamp per meter)
• Best applications are in places where laying new cables is
expensive

62. Outline for Tonight
• Engines
– Efficiency of engines
– Jet engines
– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines
• Transportation Equipment
– Trains
– Ships
– Aircraft
– Vehicles
• Electricity Generation
– Fossil fuels and steam turbines
– Other sources and issues

63. Technology Paradigms for Electricity Generation
Technology Basic Operation Basic Methods of
Improvement within
Technology Paradigm
Battery Transforms chemical energy into More reactive, higher current
electrical energy carrying, and lighter materials
Generators Movement of a loop of wire Higher temperature, pressure,
and Turbines between poles of magnet by and scale
turbine generates electricity Higher energy density of fuels
Turbine rotation driven by water,
wind or steam where steam is
generated by many sources
Photovoltaic Absorption of photon releases Thinner materials that absorb
energy equal to “band-gap” of more solar radiation, have less
material recombination of electrons
and holes, and have band-gaps
matching solar spectrum

64. Electricity Generation
• Most electricity is generated via
– Steam, boilers, and steam turbines
• The steam can be generated by different
fuels
– Coal
– Oil
– Nuclear
– Geothermal
– Solar thermal

65. Costs Fell as the Scale was Increased
• Larger steam boilers and turbines
– led to cheaper turbines and
– thus lower costs of electricity generation
• Higher voltages led to lower transmission losses and thus
facilitated more centralized generation of electricity
• Result
– price of electricity in U.S. dropped from $4.50 to $0.09 between 1892
and 1970 in constant dollars
– little since then so diminishing returns to scale have probably been
reached
– Some argue US implemented too much scale

66. Electricity Generating Plants
Edison’s Pearl Street Station
in NY City (1880)
From Kilowatts (125 HP engine) to Giga-Watts

67. Scale of Coal-Fired Power Plants was Increased
Source:
Hirsh R (1989). Technology
and Transformation in the
Electric Utility Industry,
Cambridge University
Press.

68. Larger Scale
also Enabled
Higher
Temperatures
and Pressures

69. Higher
Temperatures
and Pressures
led to Higher
Efficiencies

70. Capital Costs Rose,
but Costs per Output
Declined
(data is for one U.S.
utility, AEP)

71. Transmission Systems
• Also benefit from increases in scale
• But here scale is measured in terms of voltage
• Higher voltages reduce energy loss
– HVAC: high voltage alternating current
– HVDC: high voltage direct current
• How about superconductors for transmission
systems?

73. Fig. 3. Progress of energy transportation; (a) powered distance
and (b) powered distance per unit cost.

74. Better transmission systems and lower capital
costs per output (from increases in efficiency and
scale) led to lower electricity costs per kilowatt
hour: From $4.50 to $0.09 in 1996 USD
Source: Hirsh R (1989). Technology and Transformation in the Electric Utility Industry, Cambridge University Press.

75. Outline for Tonight
• Engines
– Efficiency of engines
– Jet engines
– Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines
• Transportation Equipment
– Trains
– Ships
– Aircraft
– Vehicles
• Electricity Generation
– Fossil fuels and steam turbines
– Other sources and issues

76. Energy densities are important for many types of energy technologies!

77. Even Higher Energy Densities Exist
Storage type Specific energy (MJ/kg)
Indeterminate matter and antimatter 89,876,000,000 *
Deuterium-tritium fusion 576,000,000
Uranium-235 used in nuclear weapons 88,250,000
Natural uranium (99.3% U-238, 0.7% U-235) in fast breeder reactor 86,000,000
Reactor-grade uranium (3.5% U-235) in light water reactor 3,456,000
30% Pu-238 α-decay 2,200,000
Hf-178m2 isomer 1,326,000
Natural uranium (0.7% U235) in light water reactor 443,000
30% Ta-180m isomer 41,340
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
*about 4740 kg of antimatter could have supplied humans with all their energy needs in 2008. for more information
on anti-matter, see Michio Kaku, Physics of the Impossible, New York: Doubleday, 2008

78. Another way to look at energy density; Source: Vaclav Smil

79. Fusion (1)
• The sun’s temperature can be created with
– high energy lasers impacting on fuel pellet
– high magnetic field
• Challenges
– high accuracy of laser beams and spherical
uniformity of pellets are needed in order to achieve
consistent heating across the pellet
– extremely precise magnetic field is needed so that
the gas is compressed evenly
• very difficult when done inside a dipole
• supercomputer plots the magnetic and electric fields
• Superconducting magnets may be needed

80. Fusion (2)
• “When I started in this field as a graduate
student we made 1/10 of a Watt of fusion heat
in a pulse of 1/100 of second. Now the record
is in the range of 10 million Watts for a second.
That is an improvement by an overall factor of
10 billion. The international ITER project will
produce 500 million Watts of fusion heat for
periods of at least 300 - 500 seconds.
• Rob Goldston, Director of the Princeton
Plasma Physics Laboratory, 2009?

81. Fusion (3)
• According to Michio Kaku (2011)
• The current record is 16 MW, created by the
European Joint European Trust
• The target date for breakeven in energy is now
set to be 2019
• DEMO is expected to continually produce
energy and begin doing so in 2033. It will
produce two billion watts of power (2 GW) or
25 times more energy than it consumes

82. Fusion (4)
• But what will the costs be?
• Will increases in scale lead to sufficient
reductions in cost?
• Will benefits from increases in scale be similar
to those experienced with coal-fired plants?

83. Conclusions (1)
• Energy and transportation equipment have
benefited from
– Improvements in efficiency
– increases in scale
– and new technologies (and science)
• These changes created opportunities for new and
existing firms
• But limits to scale have probably been reached for
most existing technologies
• Thus, improvements in cost and performance,
including reducing global warming, probably require
new technologies

84. Conclusions (2)
• Many new technologies are decades away
– or are they? Can you identify technological trends that
suggest otherwise?
– What about fusion, electric vehicles or magnetic levitating
trains ?
• In the next session, we look at two technologies
(solar cells and wind turbines) that are experiencing
rapidly falling costs