Emiliano Soldi's presentation at the Italian Agile Days discusses the concept of 'future shock,' highlighting the overwhelming pace of technological and social change that can disorient individuals. He points out that organizations must adapt to these changes, integrating agile methodologies into core practices while also embracing human skills over specific roles. The discussion includes potential future trends, emphasizing proactive futures thinking to shape desirable outcomes in an unpredictable landscape.

1. Embracing
Future
Shock
Emiliano Soldi
@AgileTriathlete
https://www.EmilianoSoldi.it
https://www.linkedin.com/in/emilianosoldi/
Italian Agile Days
Politecnico di Milano
November 18th 2023

2. “Future Shock is the
shattering stress
and disorientation that
we induce in individuals
by subjecting them
to too much change
in too short a time
That dizzying
disorientation brought
on by the premature
arrival of the future”
Alvin Toffler

3. Tech Acceleration
The fast pace of
technological and social
change overwhelms
people's ability to adapt
Novelty
New technologies,
ideas, and ways of life
proliferate rapidly,
representing unfamiliar
change that is
distressing
Transience
Things do not last in a
world of continual
novelty and flux,
leading to lack of
stability and continuity
for people adjusting
Diversity
Social diversity expands
dramatically with the
multiplicity
of options, ideas,
and lifestyles created by
change
Contradictions
Rapid change presents
conflicting trajectories,
like globalization
vs nationalism
or automation vs
human jobs
Future Shock’s Key Dimensions

4. Moore’s Law observes
that the number of
transistors in integrated
circuits doubles about
every two years
It reflects progress
in manufacturing and
design, doesn’t represent
a physical law
Semi-conductor industry
use it for long-term
planning and target
setting for research and
development
To some extent,
it’s a self-fulfilling
prophecy
Tech Advancements
are Continuous…

5. Executing conscious activities
(reading, piano playing) means
our brain utilizes
40-50 bits per second
Senses gather and send to the
brain some 11 million bits per
second from the environment
However, processing mostly
takes place outside direct
conscious control
Practice and habit are key to
train circuits in the brain to
carry out some actions
automatically
…but our brain’s
processing capability
remains stable
Source: Britannica

6. While Toffler asserted that
the future was coming too
rapidly for us to cope,
Rushkoff asserts that we
have been trapped in the
now without a sense of the
future or the past,
“diminishing anything that
isn’t happening now”
Douglas Rushkoff

7. Today
[Agile]

8. Instead of having distinct roles focused on agile
delivery, existing engineering teams and product managers
will share accountability for agile ceremonies, routines, and
practices.
The company plans to eliminate its "Agile" job family and
integrate it into existing engineering and product manager
roles, it said in a statement. The affected employees have been
invited to apply for other roles in the bank.
"The Agile role in our Tech organization was critical to our
earlier transformation phases but as our organization
matured, the natural next step is to integrate agile delivery
processes directly into our core engineering practices“.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/capital-one-job-cuts-
signal-trouble-for-it-labor-market-11674251823
https://www.wsj.com/articles/capital-one-job-cuts-
signal-trouble-for-it-labor-market-11674251823
Breaking News: Is Agile Dead?

9. https://hub.scr
umalliance.org
/agileskillsinth
enewworldrep
ort
Human skills are increasingly
vital in the new world of work
Agile acumen is seen as a crucial
skill within most roles
Demand for dedicated agile
coaches is decreasing
Organizations want people with
multiple skills, not just one
What about Agile skills today’s demand?
➢ Organizations think they
are Agile
➢ Economic pressure pushes
more on delivery than
innovation
➢ Agile Coach roles are not
seen as doing role
➢ Agile is today seen as a
skill rather than a role
➢ Business Agility skills, not
high-demand now, are
though seen valuable
Key Insights Observations

10. https://www.cio.com/article/657395/digital-pragmatism-at-volvo-means-more-control-and-less-agile.html
“The increased transparency and how the company worked with the
backlog increased the pace of development, but in return, the lack of
clear frameworks for the agile teams resulted in some of them not
knowing exactly what is expected, and then the pace slowed while
others pulled away in the wrong direction
We haven’t won by reducing governance and control, but by seeing
that it’s important to set up frameworks, with clear principles and
guidelines, so teams know what to do, We see our teams become
autonomous and fast when they know what they can and can’t
decide for themselves.
So now we work a little more traditionally again, and a lot of that
learning comes from new skills from new technology companies that
have grown and scaled with agile development, but which have now
helped us develop a better and more pragmatic model,
We were early into agile and I think we’re early out with a more
balanced approach, and I personally think that’s important
— that we learn from our experience and adapt accordingly”
Breaking News: Is Agile Dead?

11. I don't care if
"Agile is dead"
or "Agile has won"
“I care only about people enjoying their work and users
having great experiences with products and services.
That means embracing the disruptive nature of AI,
prioritizing experiences over products, and evolving
hierarchies into networks, or else we get very little done.
It's good to care about something.”
Jurgen Appelo

12. THE FUTURE AHEAD

14. Rise of temp & flex employment
End of single lifetime employment
Increased remote working
Hyper specialized jobs
Commoditization of Knowledge
Genetic engineering and cloning
Increasing Automation
ad-hocracy Growth
multi-purpose corporates
Blurred national identities
Rising of individuality
Rise of underwater and space colonies
Hydrogen cars as mostly used
Proliferation of nuclear power
Decline of public education
End of modern family structure
Prevalent 3D holographic displays
The decline of cities
Rise of telemedicine
Toffler’s Future Foresights Examples
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36675260
YES NO
…or not yet?

15. Source: https://re.public.polimi.it/handle/11311/1220928
Futures Thinking
A strategic approach to explore potential future
scenarios and define preferable ones
Aim is to give decision-makers the capacity to
anticipate changes and recognize opportunities
Futures Thinking informs present-day decision
making to proactively shape preferable futures
1. FORGET ABOUT
PREDICTIONS
2. FOCUS
ON SIGNALS
3. LOOK BACK
TO SEE FORWARD
4. UNCOVER
PATTERNS
5. CREATE
A COMMUNITY
Principles

16. Foresight Framework
Domain of
Reference
Current
Assessment
Scanning Signals,
Issues, Trends,
Projections
Identify Drivers
Develop
Forecasts based
on Indicators
Identify Possible
alternative
Futures
Scenario
Identifying and
Action Planning
Execute Plan
Ability to systematically analyze trends,
uncertainties, and potential disruptions
to make informed decisions about the future
“We need a
multiplicity of
visions,
dreams and
prophecies –
images of
potential
tomorrows“
Alvin Toffler

17. …and «explore» the future
by using some tools
we already know

18. “Hope and confidence come from
proper involvement and a willingness
to predict the unpredictable
We will fully engage on this
opportunity to unite around
an inclusive vision, and join hands
in constructing a shared future”
Paulo Caroli and TC Caetano
Prime Directive
https://www.funretrospectives.com/
category/futurespective/
Futurespectives
Futurespectives are used by organizations that
want to proactively shape their future and
anticipate potential challenges and opportunities

19. Lean Change Management (LCM)
is the Lean-Agile way for exploring
change and future in organizations
It is rooted on Lean Startup
approach and diversify itself from
standard change management
approaches by totally embracing
agile and lean values and principles
A reliable framework for sensing the future…
“Nobody
knows the
future with
certainty. We
can, however,
identify
ongoing
patterns of
change“
Alvin Toffler
FUTURE
FORESIGHTS

20. …leverage GenAI to project our teams into the future!
The Centaur merges human and AI
strengths in the workplace by clearly
differentiating the tasks between the
two, to enhance decision-making
and workflow efficiency
The Cyborg represents deep human-AI
integration, where users collaborate
directly with AI in a continuous,
interactive workflow, going beyond task
delegation to joint task execution
CYBORG CONCEPT CENTAUR CONCEPT
Source: HBR - Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality
“The great
growling
engine of
change is
technology
Technology
feeds on itself.
Technology
makes more
technology
possible“
Alvin Toffler

21. Alvin Toffler reminds us: 'In thinking about the future is better to
err on the side of daring than the side of caution’
Think Big: Envision an Amazing & Sustainable Future
Act Small: Make Small Step ahead Every Day
Move Fast: Flex, Adapt and Be Agile
Thank you
Emiliano Soldi
@AgileTriathlete
https://www.EmilianoSoldi.it
https://www.linkedin.com/in/emilianosoldi/