Electrifying Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles: The Economics Are There
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This document summarizes the benefits of electrifying medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. It notes that transportation contributes significantly to global warming and air quality issues. Electrifying vehicles can help drive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants compared to diesel or CNG vehicles. While the upfront costs of electric vehicles are currently higher, the economics are improving and incentives are helping speed adoption. Manufacturers are increasingly investing in electric technology and fleets are beginning to procure electric trucks and buses, especially with supportive policies from states and local governments.
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Electrifying Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles: The Economics Are There
- 1. Electrifying Medium- and Heavy- Duty Vehicles Sarah Ryan Manager, Research & Analytics Environmental Defense Fund
- 2. Transportation is Contributing to Global Warming
- 3. Emissions occur all along the supply chain Production Gathering & Processing Local Distribution Trucks & Stations Transmission & Storage Well-to-Pump/Upstream Pump-to- Wheels/In -Use
- 4. Transportation’s Effect on Air Quality
- 5. Transportation Electrification Can Drive Us Towards a Cleaner Future -120% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% GHGs, 20- year GHGs, 100-year NOx VOC PM10 PM2.5 SOx Diesel --> CNG Diesel --> BEV CNG --> BEV
- 6. The Economics Are There
- 8. Signs We’re Moving in the Right Direction • Manufacturers are accelerating investments in zero-emissions technology • Utilities are pouring money into infrastructure development • Fleets are starting to procure electric trucks and buses across the U.S. • Local and state policies are encouraging a robust rollout of zero-emission trucks and buses
- 9. Rapid Growth in Market from 2016 … Source: CARB
- 10. … to 2019 Source: CARB
- 12. Presented at Virtual Drive Electric Week Day 3 – Electric Transportation: Beyond the Passenger Car Presented by Lyle Hufstetler Natural Resources Project Coordinator, AACOG October 1, 2020 Resources for Business Fleets
- 13. DOE’s Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) afdc.energy.gov
- 14. Alternative Fuel Life-Cycle Environmental and Economic Transportation (AFLEET) • ANL's Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) • EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) and certification data • Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report • American Recovery and Reinvestment Act awards Step 1: Select vehicle type being replaced
- 15. AFLEET Inputs Step 3: Adjust Fuel Economy, Purchase Price, Fuel prices, and Vehicle Options (above) Step 2: Select replacement fuel type (left)
- 16. AFLEET Inputs
- 17. AFLEET Environmental Results Wait! Shouldn’t this be zero?? EV GHG Emissions calculations takes into account the emissions generated from battery recharge depending on the source mix by grid (coal, wind, hydro, natural gas, etc.)
- 18. AFLEET Economic Results Almost 11 years to break even Okay…this could be better…
- 19. Other AFDC Tools for Fleets Let’s take a look at some of them…
- 20. Federal Incentives for Fleets Diesel Emissions Reduction Act • School Bus Rebates • National Grants • State Grants • Tribal Grants Airport Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) and Infrastructure Pilot Program Low and Zero Emission Public Transportation Research, Demonstration, and Deployment Funding (Low/No)
- 21. State Incentives for Fleets Financial incentives to upgrade or replace older heavy-duty vehicles, non-road equipment, locomotives, marine vessels, and stationary equipment to reduce nitrogen oxides (NOX) www.terpgrants.org Programs vary by area, equipment, and fuel type. Some relevant ones are: • Governmental Alternative Fuel Fleet (GAFF) Grant Program (NEW!) • Seaport and Rail Yard Areas Emissions Reduction (SPRY) Program • Emissions Reduction Incentive Grants (ERIG) • Rebate Grants Program • Texas Clean Fleet Program (TCFP) • Texas Clean School Bus (TCSB) Program
- 22. State Incentives for Fleets Volkswagen Settlement gave $209 million to Texas for projects that reduce nitrogen oxides (NOX) in the environment www.txvwfund.org For San Antonio, eligible counties are Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, and Wilson Grants are gradually being rolled out and include: • Class 7-8 Refuse vehicles • Class 4-8 Freight & Port Drayage Vehicles • Level 2 Zero Emission Vehicle Supply Equipment • DC Fast Charging Zero Emission Vehicle Supply Equipment • Electric Forklifts and Port Cargo Handling Equipment • Electric Airport Ground Support Equipment Reimbursement rates Gov’t owned: Up to 80% Non-Gov’t owned: Up to 50%
Editor's Notes
- Greenhouse gases – also a byproduct of vehicle emissions – are a threat to our climate, which scientists say is rapidly warming. Left unchecked, climate change threatens serious economic damage to the state. Transportation is now the largest contributor to these GHG emissions Forest fires along the west coast have been devastating, with almost 4 million acres burned Hurricane Laura was just one of the hurricanes that hit our coast, devastating parts of Arkansas, South Florida, and Louisiana This is shaping up to be the worst Atlantic hurricane seasons in the last nearly 170 years, on track to produce the most named storms, or their equivalent, of any year other than 2005, forecasters have warned Hurricane Harvey, whose 3-year anniversary is this week, is a good reminder of this. The deadly storm inflicted $125 billion in damages and cost countless lives. Why MHDV? Lionshare of emissions, despite making up a fraction of the vehicle population. While the delivery trucks and tractor trailers that distribute goods and cargo make up only about 4% of vehicles on U.S. roads, they are responsible for nearly half of the NOx emissions and nearly 60 percent of the fine particulates from all vehicles, and about 7% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. These vehicle types are high polluters Texas is home to some of the worst climate and air pollution in the nation – and transportation is the leading contributor. Most TX in ozone nonattainment Electric vehicles are a key technology to reduce air pollution in densely populated areas and a promising option to contribute to energy diversification and greenhouse gas emissions reduction objectives.
- CO2 emissions at each step of process, due to fuel combustion. Much more important in NG case is the CH4 released at each step of the supply chain. ICE also are high emitters of NOx and VOCs, which play a role in ozone formation, which most Texas cities need to reduce in order to get in ozone attainment. These key health pollutants have been associated with negative impacts to human health, being linked to health problems such as respiratory illnesses and heart attacks, many of such ailments put one at greater risk to covid-19. -
- This is a map from EDF’s hyperlocal air quality monitoring in Houston’s – wherein we used two Google Street View cars, EDF drove 32,000 miles across 35 neighborhoods, measuring black carbon, nitrogen oxides and fine particles to paint a vivid portrait of air quality in Houston. This new air pollution map is one of the most comprehensive in the United States of its kind to date. They can also help reduce the toxic pollution people breathe in from diesel-emitting tailpipes. Approximately 30 to 45% of the urban population in North America lives “next to a busy road” — and children who live or go to school near major roadways are at considerable additional risk for substantial deficits in lung function, even in areas with low regional pollution. We found that some neighborhoods have more than 9 times more on-road air pollution than their metro area counterparts. - For example, in Houston's Fifth Ward, where 90% of the residents identify as non-white and 40% live below the federal poverty line, a cluster of metal recyclers and concrete processing plants are contributing to NO2 levels 48% higher than the rest of the city. This community faces higher rates of respiratory illness such as asthma and COPD than the rest of the city, especially compared to wealthier and whiter neighborhoods like River Oaks. I like to highlight this in order to stress that low-income communities are disproportionately impacted by transportation emissions as they are the ones who often live next to highway coridoors and industrial facilities Many of the area communities that are home to people of color, individuals facing chronic illnesses and residents who struggle financially are also plagued by high pollution levels. Not only do they live near these pollution hot spots, but they also that disproportionately rely on buses to get to work and school. There is obviously a problem that we need to address here and it must be part of the transportation electrification movement.
- - Electric vehicle benefits include zero tailpipe emissions, better efficiency than internal combustion engine vehicles and large potential for greenhouse gas emissions reductions when coupled with a low-carbon electricity sector. By electrifying trucks and buses, we have a unique opportunity to substantially decrease tailpipe emissions and improve air quality. However, hypothetically, if we were to charge an electric vehicle with 100% renewable energy all emissions, both up and downstream would be eliminated. - climate emissions from large vehicles are on pace to double in the next 30 years, we must act now to start to get in front of the problem Nationally, by focusing first on the market segments with the strongest economic and environmental case for electrification, we can create production scale for batteries and other components, while also advancing our understanding of how to design effective charging strategies and financing programs. .
- This is the TCO breakdown of a transit bus Over the lifetime of this vehicles, which we assumed to be 12 years, a BEV is actually more cost-effective than a CNG or ICE vehicle Strong near-term case for high-mileage, return-to-base operations, which enables fleets to develop the charging infrastructure as they scale EVs in their fleet Large production scale will attract more research and development to further drive down component costs and improve battery quality The lithium ion battery technology has not only become more efficient, with energy density improving and new chemistries hitting the market, but it has become more affordable with prices dropping exponentially in the last 10 years Electric trucks and buses are becoming cheaper and more competitive than their diesel counterparts. Due to lower operation, maintenance and fuel costs, fleet owners may actually save money by electrifying their fleets despite the generally higher upfront capital cost. This combined with the fact that in a time of such economic uncertainty and fuel prices projected to rise again, fuel price volatility would be a helpful thing to strike from a fleet owners list of things to worry about as electricity prices are more stable. As fleet owners look for ways to recover from this economic downturn and cut costs, electrification should be at the top of their list.
- What is EDF’s strategy? How we think this will help Some market segments, such as transit buses, school buses, and work trucks, can and should electrify faster than others because their maturation in the market is further along, and therefore the economics pencil out more By 2030, as the U.S. transitions its fleet to electric, local agencies will save billions on fuel costs, and 14,000 new jobs will be created for every billion spent to modernize the hundreds of thousands of buses in the system today.
- 1) Manufacturers like Diamler, Navistar, and Volvo are pouring billions into manufacturing facilities and corporate acquistions at Cummins and GM Tesla just announced that it will locate its new Gigafactory in Austin, proving that Texas is becoming a hotspot for electric truck manufacturing. In the passenger-duty vehicle segment There is at least one electric model available for nearly every vehicle segment; the MHD segment is not far behind 2) It has been a concern that with all of this additional demand it will add major stress to an already stressed grid. However, if these vehicles can respond to grid demand by flexibly charging during off-peak times this may not be as much of an issue. 3) Major public transit agencies across the U.S. and a wide array of Fortune 500 companies are making commitments to transition some of their trucks to zero-emission alternatives Fleet owners agree -- 90% of fleet managers say that EVs are the inevitable future of commercial fleets and what feels like every other week they are making commitments that reflect this; Amazon just announced it’s working with Rivian to develop a fully electric delivery truck. FedEx purchased 1,000 electric panel vans in 2019. Last month, UPS said it’ll be ordering 10,000 electric vehicles. Lyft committing to 100% electric by 2030 HEB and Pepsico have also made big strides towards fleet electrification 4) For example, CA’s Governor Newsom executive order on - California could experience $22 billion in annual public health benefits via widespread transportation electrification
- - In general over the years, the auto industry has been slow to adopt zero-emission vehicle technologies, which has created an opening for upstart automakers like Tesla, Rivian and Nikola Motors to emerge and gain customers from big auto. Rivian won a 100,000 electric delivery and freight truck deal with Amazon. Tesla is now a Fortune 500 company after four profitable quarters. Losing marketshare, and fear of losing marketshare, is a key driver of remaking the auto industry around sustainability. More investment dollars means more models available on the market which means higher adoption
- By the end of 2020, CALSTART predicts the number of zero-emission truck and bus models available to increase 78 percent from the previous year. As manufacturers continue to invest significant resources to develop these vehicles, we’ll continue to see more and more electric trucks and buses ready for purchase. In this same timeframe, we’ll see electric trucks and buses become cost competitive with their diesel counterparts. For some medium-duty models, like transit buses, and certainly for passenger EVs, this cost parity will happen even sooner. This convergence of a greening grid with EV affordability will create a tipping point for the clean, electric transformation of Texas’ transportation sector. Closing: Texas is on the cusp of an electric vehicle transformation. Over the next 10 years, we will witness the convergence of an advancement in battery and EV technology, a zero-emissions grid and cost parity for most EV models on the road. Texas leaders can help smooth this transition while creating a roadmap for other states to follow.