Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in the City of Berkeley
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How to implement EV charging infrastructure in the City of Berkeley. Market analysis, scenarios, strategy, recommendations, and financial analysis.
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Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in the City of Berkeley
- 1. Developing Electric Value Added December 17, 2010 Justin Bean Obrie Hostetter Katie Dunn Tim McLaughlin Rudi Halbright
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- 14. Outline Developing Electric Value Added
- 15. Market Overview Outline Developing Electric Value Added
- 16. Outline Scenarios & Strategy Developing Electric Value Added
- 17. Outline Recommendations Developing Electric Value Added
- 18. Outline Financial Options &… Developing Electric Value Added
- 19. Outline Analysis Developing Electric Value Added
- 20. Berkeley’s Climate Action Plan • 80% Reduction by 2050 and 33% Reduction by 2020 • Potential to Save to 140,000 Metric Tons of CO2 Developing Electric Value Added
- 21. Who is Berkeley? • Population 107,000 • 67% have bachelors degree+ • Berkeley FIRST • PACE Developing Electric Value Added
- 22. Technology Overview EV Vs PHEV Charging Level 1 120 Volts 8 to 20 hours Level 2 220 to 240 Volts 4 to 6 hours Faster Charger (DC) 480 Volts 10 to 30 Minutes Developing Electric Value Added
- 23. Market Overview • 841,000 EV & PHEVs by 2015 • Favorable Federal and State Policies • $14.4B – ARRA • Consumer Tax Credits $7,500 fed tax credit $5,000 CA tax credit $2,000 fed tax credit for charging Developing Electric Value Added
- 24. Market Overview - Hybrids are a predictor of EV sales Beating the Market (2009) • Auto sales declined 21% • Hybrids declined only 8% Developing Electric Value Added
- 25. Market Overview - EV Demand in Berkeley • 2.8% of vehicle registrations are hybrids • Toyota - 500 PHEVs on waiting list • Nissan – Sold out! Developing Electric Value Added
- 26. Focus of Other Cities Portland New York San Francisco Key Focus Key Focus Key Focus All car commuters Early adopters only Long-term integrated transportation plan Key Strategies Key Strategies Easy access to charging Commercial parking Key Strategies stations and permitting garages Public parking in dense Leverage municipal EV Not offering incentives, areas fleet to set precedent only supporting demand Alliances with car share for adoption programs Utilize existing assets Developing Electric Value Added
- 27. Strategy Canvas Developing Electric Value Added
- 28. SWOT Highlights Strengths •Progressive Berkeley residents •CAP goals •Measure R •Small city: minimal EV infrastructure big impact Developing Electric Value Added
- 29. SWOT Highlights Strengths Weaknesses •Progressive Berkeley •Barriers to residential residents charging •CAP goals •Late for grants •Measure R •Funding •Small city: minimal EV infrastructure big impact Developing Electric Value Added
- 30. SWOT Highlights Strengths Weaknesses •Progressive Berkeley •Barriers to residential residents charging •CAP goals •Late for grants •Measure R •Funding •Small city: minimal EV infrastructure big impact Opportunities •2nd mover to learn from other cities •Can be leading city for range of options •Funding available •Bay area network Developing Electric Value Added
- 31. SWOT Highlights Strengths Weaknesses •Progressive Berkeley •Barriers to residential residents charging •CAP goals •Late for grants •Measure R •Funding •Small city: minimal EV infrastructure big impact Opportunities Threats •2nd mover to learn from •Other alternative fuel other cities vehicles might prevail •Can be leading city for •CoB disconnected from range of options Bay Area corridor •Funding available •Charging technology not •Bay area network completely standardized Developing Electric Value Added
- 32. Future Scenarios Developing Electric Value Added
- 33. Future Scenarios Developing Electric Value Added
- 34. Future Scenarios Developing Electric Value Added
- 35. Future Scenarios Developing Electric Value Added
- 36. Future Scenarios Developing Electric Value Added
- 37. Future Scenarios Developing Electric Value Added
- 38. Within 3 months Recommendations Facilitate EV usage for early adopters • Charging strategies for EV-driver profiles • Fast-track permitting • Carshare and commercial parking lot charging • Secure grant monies and incentives ASAP Developing Electric Value Added
- 39. Within 3 to 6 months Recommendations • Monitor station usage for future siting • Install opportunity charging stations in shopping districts and high-traffic areas • Develop transportation integration strategies • Encourage use of the entire transportation system Developing Electric Value Added
- 40. Within 18 months and on-going Recommendations Evaluate & Educate • Move 2nd: reduce risks and costly mistakes Move 2nd • Monitor other cities’ solutions • Disseminate information online and through community • Showcase innovative pilot projects, including educational components for the community Developing Electric Value Added
- 41. Residential Curbside Charging Not recommended at this time Challenges: • Uncertain commitment to charging technology • Permitting issues • No clear solutions in other cities • Large, complicated investment • Lack of data Developing Electric Value Added
- 42. Residential Curbside Charging Short-term recommendations • Push EV parking & charging policies • Provide information about other charging options • Encourage communities to install charging stations on private property • Encourage permittable owner-initiated solutions • Facilitate relationships between private owners of charging stations and EV owners Developing Electric Value Added
- 43. Financial Analysis: Charging Station Network Our Task Build low-risk model that is financially and environmentally sustainable. Four Models A. Grid Powered B. ClimateSmart C. PV Purchase D. PV Lease Constraints • Lack of data • Limited budget Developing Electric Value Added
- 44. Finding WACC WACC = [ D/V * (1-T) * Rd ] + [ E/V * Re ] Developing Electric Value Added
- 45. Finding WACC WACC = [ D/V * (1-T) * Rd ] Developing Electric Value Added
- 46. Finding WACC WACC = [ D/V * Rd ] Developing Electric Value Added
- 47. Finding WACC WACC = Rd Developing Electric Value Added
- 48. Finding WACC WACC = Rd = YTM Developing Electric Value Added
- 49. Finding WACC WACC = Rd = YTM Municipal Bonds •10 yr •AA •Callable •Revenue Developing Electric Value Added
- 50. The Tool 3 Steps: 1. Input assumptions 2. Compare output NPV IRR Payback Capital Outlay 3. Make conclusion Developing Electric Value Added
- 51. The Tool X 4 Steps: 3 1. Input assumptions 2. Compare output NPV IRR Payback Capital Outlay 3. Make conclusion 4. Monitor, reassess assumptions Developing Electric Value Added
- 52. Our Calculations Capital Payback NPV IRR (thousands) Investment Period (thousands) (years) A: Grid Energy $490 103% $49 1.2 B: ClimateSmart $486 102% $49 1.1 C: PV Purchase $190 5% $1,120 10.0 D: PV Lease $593 79% $80 1.4 Developing Electric Value Added
- 53. A Visual Comparison Developing Electric Value Added
- 54. A Visual Comparison: Flipped Developing Electric Value Added
- 55. Sensitivity Analysis: IRR Variables • daily demand • charging price Developing Electric Value Added
- 56. Financial Analysis Summary Our Task Build low risk model that is financially and environmentally sustainable. Recommended Scenario A. Baseline B. ClimateSmart C. PV Purchase D. PV Lease* *Invest in charging stations, monitor real demand, then move forward. Developing Electric Value Added
- 57. In Sum Start now •Grant money for stations •Appease early adopters Emergent Strategy •Monitor other cities •Monitor local demand Systems Approach EVs are not THE answer but a part of it Developing Electric Value Added
Editor's Notes
- Set the stage: Berkeley, 2018, getting off work
- Going to friend’s party, stop by store. Chose this store for their solar charging while you shop, and you love Italian designer Neville Mars’s Solar Forest design. Not empty, but might as well take advantage of the opportunity.
- See station, swipe card, get a reminder of that wine you loved last time along with a coupon, sweet! Plug in your charger, get wine and party snacks, 82% - 246 miles: probably OK. Not bad for a couple dollars.
- See station, swipe card, get a reminder of that wine you loved last time along with a coupon, sweet! Plug in your charger, get wine and party snacks, 82% - 246 miles: probably OK. Not bad for a couple dollars.
- See station, swipe card, get a reminder of that wine you loved last time along with a coupon, sweet! Plug in your charger, get wine and party snacks, 82% - 246 miles: probably OK. Not bad for a couple dollars.
- See station, swipe card, get a reminder of that wine you loved last time along with a coupon, sweet! Plug in your charger, get wine and party snacks, 82% - 246 miles: probably OK. Not bad for a couple dollars.
- See station, swipe card, get a reminder of that wine you loved last time along with a coupon, sweet! Plug in your charger, get wine and party snacks, 82% - 246 miles: probably OK. Not bad for a couple dollars.
- See station, swipe card, get a reminder of that wine you loved last time along with a coupon, sweet! Plug in your charger, get wine and party snacks, 82% - 246 miles: probably OK. Not bad for a couple dollars.
- Make your way to La Pena for a quick music rehearsal. Where to park? Trusty old-school iphone tells you which parking spots are open, gives you priority for EV charging spot, but leave it for somebody else, you’re at 82%! Pick up a friend at BART, then both head to Monterey Market for some fresh Fruits & Veggies for the party. Arrive just in time for a picture-perfect sunset! A sunset made clearer in part by Berkeley’s choice 10 years ago to adopt strong environmental standards.
- Make your way to La Pena for a quick music rehearsal. Where to park? Trusty old-school iphone tells you which parking spots are open, gives you priority for EV charging spot, but leave it for somebody else, you’re at 82%! Pick up a friend at BART, then both head to Monterey Market for some fresh Fruits & Veggies for the party. Arrive just in time for a picture-perfect sunset! A sunset made clearer in part by Berkeley’s choice 10 years ago to adopt strong environmental standards.
- Make your way to La Pena for a quick music rehearsal. Where to park? Trusty old-school iphone tells you which parking spots are open, gives you priority for EV charging spot, but leave it for somebody else, you’re at 82%! Pick up a friend at BART, then both head to Monterey Market for some fresh Fruits & Veggies for the party. Arrive just in time for a picture-perfect sunset! A sunset made clearer in part by Berkeley’s choice 10 years ago to adopt strong environmental standards.
- Make your way to La Pena for a quick music rehearsal. Where to park? Trusty old-school iphone tells you which parking spots are open, gives you priority for EV charging spot, but leave it for somebody else, you’re at 82%! Pick up a friend at BART, then both head to Monterey Market for some fresh Fruits & Veggies for the party. Arrive just in time for a picture-perfect sunset! A sunset made clearer in part by Berkeley’s choice 10 years ago to adopt strong environmental standards.
- Berkeley – wanted strategies and research for implementing EV infrastructure. With a focus on the residential curbside charging issue, which we will address later. Obrie – background about Berkeley and CAP. Katie - scenarios, strategy JB - recommendations Tim – Charging options, electric supply options, & financing, and conclusions.
- Berkeley – wanted strategies and research for implementing EV infrastructure. With a focus on the residential curbside charging issue, which we will address later. Obrie – background about Berkeley and CAP. Katie - scenarios, strategy JB - recommendations Tim – Charging options, electric supply options, & financing, and conclusions.
- Berkeley – wanted strategies and research for implementing EV infrastructure. With a focus on the residential curbside charging issue, which we will address later. Obrie – background about Berkeley and CAP. Katie - scenarios, strategy JB - recommendations Tim – Charging options, electric supply options, & financing, and conclusions.
- Berkeley – wanted strategies and research for implementing EV infrastructure. With a focus on the residential curbside charging issue, which we will address later. Obrie – background about Berkeley and CAP. Katie - scenarios, strategy JB - recommendations Tim – Charging options, electric supply options, & financing, and conclusions.
- Berkeley – wanted strategies and research for implementing EV infrastructure. With a focus on the residential curbside charging issue, which we will address later. Obrie – background about Berkeley and CAP. Katie - scenarios, strategy JB - recommendations Tim – Charging options, electric supply options, & financing, and conclusions.
- Berkeley – wanted strategies and research for implementing EV infrastructure. With a focus on the residential curbside charging issue, which we will address later. Obrie – background about Berkeley and CAP. Katie - scenarios, strategy JB - recommendations Tim – Charging options, electric supply options, & financing, and conclusions.
- To put you in the mindset of the City of Berkeley, we want to give you some background on the City and its residents. The City of Berkeley has a climate action plan, also know as CAP. CAP came about when in a landslide vote, 81% of voters agreed to reduce GHG’s by 80% by 2050. Almost half or 46% of Berkeley’s GHG emissions come from transportation, with 29%, gasoline-based transportation is the biggest emitter and this is where a transitioning to more efficient alternative fuel vehicles such as EVs, will help the city reach its GHG targets. Based on our calculations an EV’s (such as Leaf) can reduce GHG’s by 83% compared to ICE vehicles. With 100% adoption there is the potential to save up 140,000 Metric Tons of Carbon per year. This would surpass 2050 gasoline transportation targets. We know that 100% adoption isn’t realistic however and there are variations of the leaf ; it shows what the potential is. *Pie Chart %’s from 2005
- Berkeley is an environmentally progressive city with 107,000 citizens. It prides itself on being a hub for “academic achievement, scientific exploration, free speech and the arts” It is liberal, educated, affluent (medium household income is $95,720), and home of important environmental policies such as: Berkeley First, solar financing system, later became CA FIRST and PACE (Property-Assessed Clean Energy )- which offers financing residential / commercial clean energy projects, including energy efficiency, solar photovoltaic, or solar thermal systems. Berkeley may have a small population it has a strong political presence and it’s environmental policies shape both state and federal policy.
- There are two types of electric vehicles. You have an EV which is 100 % electric, an example is the Nissan leave where you can expect to get 100-120 miles on a single charge. And then you have a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle such as the GM Volt, where the first 35 miles are electric then the internal combustion engine kicks in so it can go a total of 340 miles. Leaf cost roughly $33,000. Volt cost $41,000 So now you understand the vehicle let talk about charging. There are both private (at home) and public charging stations. The three different levels are level 1, 2, 3 or (DC) fast charger. Level 1 is like plugging into a house outlet and it takes 8 to 16 hours to charge, 2 is like plugging into a dryer and it takes 4 to 6 hours, and level 3 is commercial only and takes 10 to 30 minutes.
- This is an emerging market where there are lots of unknowns. Experts predict over 841,00 thousand Evs and PHEVs are predicted to be sold in the US by 2015. No one really knows and this is what makes this market exciting. This market is being shaped daily. What we do know is that almost every major auto manufacturer has plans to release either an EVs and PHEVs . Some of the automakers that have already deployed or announced PHEV deployment plans in the US logo’s are on this slide. This list isn’t comprehesive, almost every major automaker plans on entering this market! There are a number of public policies at the federal and state level that support EV. The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) offered $14.4B for R&D for EV and related infrastructure projects. Tax credits for consumers include: $7,500 federal tax credit for the purchase of the vehicle, $5,000 credit from the state of California, and another up to $2,000 federal credit toward the purchase of a charging unit (NY Times, 2010).
- The reason hybrid sales are so important is because the experts predict that hybrids sales will have a close correlation to EV sales. The auto industry has been a state of decline and in 2009, Automobiles sales declined by 21% and hybrids declined 8%. However, even in a recession hybrid sales have consistently beaten the market. * The graph shows US Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Sales from 1999 to 2009
- Now that we understand that the best predictor of EV demand is hybrid sales lets talk about expected EV demand or adoption rates Berkeley. Berkeley has one the highest hybrid penetration rates in the country at 2.8%. This roughly four times greater than the state average. We all know that there are a lot of hybrids in Berkeley! We also performed primary research at the Toyota and Nissan dealership. The Toyota dealership in Berkeley said that they have waiting list of 500 PHEV priuses and Nissan in Richmond said all of their allotment from the 20,000 released nationwide has been sold, and that many of the Leafs are heading to Berkeley. The point is all indicators point to Berkeley seeing EV’s driving on its streets. Now that we know the EV’s are coming I’m going to turn it over to Katie who is going to talk about how other cities are preparing for the arrival of EV’s.
- Different focuses Phased plans None clear plan for curbside residential: --Supplies of EVs are limited (so early adopters mostly) --Infrastructure will take time to build up Images: Goldman, L. (2010). The 20 Most Innovative Cities In The Nation. Retrieved December 11, 2010, from http://www.businessinsider.com/20-most-innovative-cities-in-north-america-2010-10?slop=1 Science backs apple-a-day cliche. (n.d.). International Society for Horticultural Science . Retrieved December 11, 2010, from http://www.ishs.org/news/?p=1154 Tyler Stenson Blog. (2009). . Retrieved December 11, 2010, from http://tylerstenson.com/blog/2009/05/
- Visual representation of what other cities are doing Categories on the bottom include: Building municipal EV fleet, Car share programs Partnering with businesses Blue line is Berkeley Added two categories to focus on: --easy to find information --partnering with local businesses with lots for overnight charging in neighborhoods --offsetting energy used in charging stations with solar or carbon offsets– Tim will talk more about the environmental and financial considerations with this decision Most notably low on our recommendations for Berkeley is: Residential curbside parking, Justin will talk more about this in a bit
- Strengths: Obrie touched upon: support from citizens and local government as shown by CAP Small city can make a big impact Willing to take measured risks
- Weaknesses: Others have been able to move first so a bit late in applying for grant money Barriers to residential charging
- Opportunites: Taking that potential weakness of being late in the game could be the biggest advantage Act as 2 nd mover to learn from others In the Bay Area: part of a network vs. doing it alone
- Threats: EV might not be the future technology Even if EVs are, technology is moving so fast that might be obsolete
- Justin painted a great picture of the future We wanted to consider other possible futures such as the threat of obsolete technology that I just mentioned so that decisions are measured To do so, we compared state and national government support of climate policy And the advancement of technology.
- This is the most optimistic: Gov’t support and EV technology advancing as dominant…
- NW has low government support, but high technology… perhaps China is the leader in EV technology. While EV demand might be high, there might not be US national support for infrastructure.
- SE offers the idea that the government is supportive, but that another technology surpasses Evs. The photo shows a hydrogen car, but there could be a new technology that isn’t even imaginable out there. In this quadrant is also the possibility that the tech could be towards EV, but advances so quickly that any movement the city would take would be obsolete.
- The SW corner is the doomsday dirty future in which the country is so consumed with war or a bad economy that no sustainable technology is supported. One golden possibility from this scenario is that the tech still advances, but in the military sector…
- In order to maximize our recommendations, we positioned Berkeley in this taupe circle: it sits in the optimistic quadrant, but still has recommendations that would pertain to the other possible futures. Justin will now talk in more detail about our recommendations. French, P. (n.d.). Dirty Oil. The Observer . Retrieved December 10, 2010, from http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2010/mar/21/dirty-oil-film-review-french Fuel Cell Hybrid Vehicles. (2010, June 11). After Gutenberg . Retrieved December 10, 2010, from http://jcwinnie.biz/wordpress/?p=848 Tesla Roadster. (2010, September 1). Popular Auto Reviews . Retrieved December 10, 2010, from http://www.popularautoreviews.com/tesla-roadster/ Zyga, L. (n.d.). Hydrogen-fueled cars enhanced with 13 lucky enzymes. Inventor Spot . Retrieved December 10, 2010, from http://inventorspot.com/13_enzymes http://www.netstate.com/states/maps/ca_maps.htm http://www.eurochinabusiness.com/
- Apply for grant money ASAP here, monitor usage of stations for citing Fast track permitting – quickest, most effective thing to do early on: early adopters will be very disappointed to wait, and will share stories around the community. Education and permitting: best short-run actions.
- Move grant monies up to previous slide Monitor station usage for citing here.
- 2 nd mover – reduce risk, costly mistakes
- Problems: significant degree of uncertainty regarding demand and location of that demand, no data (where!?), installing stations in low-density residential areas would not be the most effective use of resources. As Katie said, early adopters will be the only ones able to purchase Ev’s in the near future, drivers who are more willing to change driving behavior and have plans already laid out. permitting issues, Looked into it, no clear solution: Philly still hasn’t found solutions. 2 slides. Find permitable owner-initiated solutions (neighbor partnerships, provide a list of options for people, approved vendor list on website, keep open clear channel for community to find solutions, reroute to FAQ’s, external links to legally permisable solutions).
- (Neighbor partnerships, approved vendor list on website)
- OUR TASK We wondered if CoB was to install a network of charging stations, what would that mean … financially and environmentally … to the city. We thought if the city is to install a network of public EV charging stations, it could create a pricing model that would allow the charging system to pay for itself. We created a ten-year financial analysis tool to better understand how that could be done. We wanted to find out: the capital investments required to build out a charging network the ongoing expenses of that charging network the potential revenues the city could bring in from the those charging stations how this project could contribute to the city’s climate action goals. 4 SCENARIOS We imagined 4 potential ways the city could go about this. A “grid-powered” scenario in which the city purchases all required charging energy from PG&E. It does not “offset” this additional electricity. That means the city’s GHGs decrease due to people switching from ICE vehicles to EVs. It also means the city is using (and paying for) more electricity. 2. An “offset” scenario in which CoB offsets the additional energy consumed through PG&E’s ClimateSmart program. A ”solar purchasing” scenario in which CoB invests in a photovoltaics (PV) solar system to generate some or all of the required EV charging energy. This could have numerous benefits: reduced GHGs, This option requires a large capital investment. A solar leasing scenario in which CoB leases a PV solar system. This option reduces capital investment significantly. CONSTRAINTS Lack of data. CoB does not have money set aside for this project. They are fiscally conservative (as compared to a private business).
- How to find Rd? Rd = YTM on 10-yr, double AA, callable municipal revenue bonds.
- So we made a financial analysis tool that CoB could use to better understand what a charging station network would look like financially. Step 1 Input assumptions: some of the data, like electricity rates, is fairly predictable. Most of the data, like public charging station demand, price per hour of charging, is not. Step 2 Compare NPV, IRR, and Payback periods of the four scenarios. Step 3 Base conclusion on financials and environmental benefit. Possibly also image (does Berkeley want city-owned or –leased PV in the limelight?
- So we made a financial analysis tool that CoB could use to better understand what a charging station network would look like financially. Step 1 Input assumptions: some of the data, like electricity rates, is fairly predictable. Most of the data, like public charging station demand, price per hour of charging, is not. Step 2 Compare NPV, IRR, and Payback periods of the four scenarios. Step 3 Base conclusion on financials and environmental benefit. Possibly also image (does Berkeley want city-owned or –leased PV in the limelight?
- Let’s take a closer look at how our 4 options compare. This is not absolute data. Rather, it is relative, as you can see from the y-axis. As you can see, options A, C, & D have very low capital outlays and quick payback periods, as well as relatively high NPVs and IRRs. Now just to give you an idea of the absolute numbers behind this chart: the IRR on Option A is about 100% the NPV is about $490K The net capital investment is about $31K, assuming … and this is a big assumption … the city can obtain grant monies to pay for ½ its charging stations The payback period is just over a year But let’s look at this another way…. We’re going to flip the x- and y- axes to look at this from another angle.
- The graphs are now grouped by the financial measurement. What really stands out: capital outlay and payback period of the PV purchase option, which make it relatively unattractive. The other options are a bit more comparable.
- IRR only Variables: daily charging demand & charging price Varied by +,- 50% … because these 2 variables are hard to predict, we chose a wide variance in our S.A.
- So what did we recommend to Cob? Remember, our goal was to build a ** low risk ** model that is both financially & environmentally sustainable. We recommended option D, the PV lease scenario, with a caveat. And here’s the caveat: Move forward on finding the grant money & building out the charging infrastructure. This is all very, very low risk and high reward. But before you sign a 20 or 25 year lease on PV to offset that charging energy, monitor real demand over the next year or two, so that you can be sure (a) there will be charging energy to offset and (b) if there is, how much that will be. Right now, those numbers very difficult to predict. And from here, ____ is going to talk about ____