"The Growing Movement To Electrify Everything"– presentation by Nick Nigro of Atlas Public Policy for Regional Conference for Sustainable Development 2019.

1. Nick Nigro, Atlas Public Policy
November 13, 2019
State of play for transportation
electrification in the United States

2. • DC-based policy tech firm
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3. • The EV Hub gives stakeholders from
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4. • Market drivers of transportation
electrification in the United States
• Statistics on technology deployment
• Electric utilities engagement

5. Technological progress, competitiveness, and public policy
Photo by Stefan Wermuth/BloombergThis Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

6. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2019)
85% decline
from 2010-
2018
$516
$510
$443
$384
$382
$349
$345
$307
$159
$153
2012 Ford Focus Electric
2014 BMW i3
2011 Nissan LEAF
2016 Ford Focus Electric
2017 BMW i3
2016 Tesla Model X
2017 Nissan LEAF
2016 Tesla Model S
2017 Tesla Model 3
2017 Chevy Bolt
Vehicle cost per mile of battery range
Range
in miles
MSRP
238 $36,620
215 $35,000
259 $79,500
84 $29,010
238 $83,000
114 $43,600
76 $29,170
74 $32,780
81 $41,350
76 $39,200

7. • $348b in global investments
announced through Q3 of 2019
• U.S. lags overall investment
• Q3 saw U.S. receive 83% of
investment (China received
17%)
• U.S. to get about ~10% of
total investment
• $831m announced in Q3 alone
• Rivian: $350m
• Nikola: $230m
• Renault/Jingling: $140m
• Volta Charging: $64m
• Motiv Power Systems: $47m
Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)

8. • Colorado joined ZEV program
• 12 states have now adopted the CA-
led ZEV standards
• Minnesota and New Mexico
announced in September that it is
considering joining program
• ZEV states account for more than
63% of all U.S. EV sales
States Participating in the ZEV Program
Multiple categories means ZEV program and ZEV
MOU state Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)

9. • California is working with
BMW, Honda, Ford, and VW
to maintain tougher
emissions regulations
• 23 states have joined CA in
efforts to combat the
Trump administration’s
regulation rollback
Regulation Battle Timeline
• July 25, 2019: CA and automakers
finalize agreement
• September 18, 2019: EPA blocks
CA’s agreement
• September 20, 2019: CA and 23
states sue DOT

10. • 23 states have introduced new or
updated EV fees in 2019
• Enacted legislation in Alabama,
Arkansas, Hawaii, North Dakota,
Ohio, Washington, and Wyoming
• New additions will bring national
total of states with EV fees to 26
states
States with EV Fee-Related Legislation

11. $10 billion to buyback or modify these vehicles
$2 billion on zero emission vehicle infrastructure and programs distributed
by its independent company, Electrify America.
$2.9 billion in an environmental mitigation trust for states and tribes to use
$1.45 billion civil penalty

12. • 25 states have awarded
$179m to transportation
electrification as of
November 2019
• 50% of total funding
awarded
• $88m towards transit
buses (50%)
• $34m to charging
stations (19%)
• $28m to school buses
(16%)
Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)

13. • Over 20,000 media
stories tracked on EV
Hub
• 1.6x growth from 2017
to 2018 in coverage
• Significant advances in
electric buses and
trucks led to media
coverage spike in 2019
Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)

14. • Light-duty EV market sales growing
• Charging infrastructure focusing on support
for long-range all-electrics
• Expansion of electrification to trucks and
buses
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-ND

15. • EVs have more than 6.5% market share in passenger car
segment (~2% including light trucks and SUVs)
• 80% year-over-year growth from 2017-2018
• 2019 has been flat; Q4 sales unlikely to repeat 2018
Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)

16. • Streak of monthly sales records ended
in July and August
• Decline in summer sales compared to 2018
(launch of Tesla Model 3)
• 12-month moving average declining
for both plug-in hybrids and battery-
electrics
• Reflects decline in year-over-year sales
• In Q3, only one plug-in hybrid accounted
for more than 5% of sales (Toyota Prius
Prime)
Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)

17. • Tesla market concentration will hurt if EV tax credit not
reformed
• Bridge to more mass market EVs from major automakers
(Ford, VW, GM)

18. • Charging pyramid reflects current and near-term vehicle
technology demand
• Over 80% of charging is likely to occur at home when available
• Workplace and public used much less frequently than home charging
• Workplace and Public Charging
• Substitute when home charging is unavailable
• Increases electric mile share for plug-in hybrids
• Extend daily travel for all-electrics
• Public DC fast charging
• Most relevant for all-electrics
• Needed for long distance all-electric travel
• Important for interregional travel
• Deployment costs almost inverse of charging pyramid
How will the charging pyramid change with long-range all-electrics?

19. • More than
12,000 fast
charging ports
• 75% year-over-
year growth in
fast charging
ports*
• More
competition for
market-leader
Tesla
• Electrify America
nationwide
network coming
together
Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)
* Estimated based on dates stations added to AFDC Station Locator

20. • Since January 2017, 8.7k Level 2 ports and 3k DC fast charging ports
installed*
• California & New York lead in overall deployment
• California, Oregon, & Vermont lead deployment on per capita basis
• Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York lag on per capita deployment
* Estimated based on date stations added to AFDC Station Locator
Installed charging
ports by state
Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)
Cumulative charging
ports per person by state

21. Deployment
• Electric Transit
Buses: 1,650
• Electric Trucks (all
classes): 300
• Electric School
Buses: 150 Investment
• $840 million in
public funding for
electric buses (43
states) and trucks
(7 states)
• At least $10
billion in private
investments
announced
PriceParityEstimates
• Electric Transit
Buses: 2019-2020
• Electric School
Buses: 2025-2030
• Electric Trucks:
2025
Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)

23. • Utility leverages grid
experience to capture EV
benefits
• EV deployment can
complement utility’s main
objective for grid
• Safe and reliable
• Environmentally sustainable
• Efficient and affordable
• EVs primarily charge overnight
• Can increase utilization of
existing assets putting downward
pressure on rates
Smart Charging
Deployment
• Reduced grid upgrades
• Incorporated into grid
modernization
A Better Grid
• Higher utilization of existing grid
assets
• Potential to maximize benefits of
renewables
Lower
Transportation
Costs for EV
Drivers
• Lower Electricity Costs
for All
Source: Advancing Industry Collaboration in the EV Market (Atlas Public Policy, 2016)

24. • Transportation
electrification at scale
may help offset
declining system
utilization and rising
cost-of-service
• Managed charging at
home and work may
result in more
overnight, off-peak
charging
• Better system
utilization
• Reduced peak load
14,685
13,256
11,828
10,399
41%
27%
14%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
15,000 Miles 10,000 Miles 5,000 Miles Average American
Household
%ChangefromAverageAmericanHousehold
AnnualHouseholdElectricityConsumption(kWh)
Household Electricity Consumption with All Home
Charging for a single EV
Annual Household Electricity Consumption % Change
Calculation assumes an EV gets 3.5 miles per kilowatt-hour Source: U.S. EIA (2018)

25. • 2019 study on two California utilities found EVs contribute $584m in revenue above costs
• 380,000 EVs in these two territories
• EV drivers on time-of-use rates charged on-peak < 15% of time
• Validates early studies by EPRI and others
Source: Synapse, 2019

26. Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)

28. • Noticeable increase in utility
engagement in 2017 and
2018
• Most popular program
element: EV charging
• Mostly light-duty
• Emerging interest in trucks and
buses
• Utilities also focusing on
education and rates
Initial Filings by Year
Filing Types
Source: Atlas EV Hub (www.atlasevhub.com)

29. TRANSPORTATION
ELECTRIFICATION IS MAJOR
INVESTMENT
OPPORTUNITY FOR
UNITED STATES
SUPPORTIVE PUBLIC
POLICY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ESSENTIAL IN NEAR
TERM, ESPECIALLY FOR
BURGEONING
MEDIUM/HEAVY VEHICLE
MARKET
NEAR-TERM CHALLENGES
EXIST IN U.S. FOR LIGHT-
DUTY EV SALES
INFRASTRUCTURE
DEPLOYMENT FOCUSED
ON FAST CHARGING
AHEAD OF ARRIVAL OF
MORE LONG RANGE ALL-
ELECTRICS
ELECTRIC UTILITIES ARE
THE LYNCHPIN FOR A
SUCCESSFUL
INFRASTRUCTURE
ROLLOUT

30. Nick Nigro
nick.nigro@atlaspolicy.com