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Big Shift or Big Return?
Visible Minority Representation in the
2015 Election
Andrew Griffith
Metropolis Toronto 5 March 2016
Agenda
• Riding portrait
• Candidates
• MPs Elected
• Over/under representation
• 33 Visible Majority Ridings
• MP comparison
• Implications
2
Methodology
• NHS and Elections Canada data
• Mix of names, photos, MP profiles, Parliamentary
website
• Number of visible minority citizens (15 %), not
total population (19 %)
3
Concentration vs Dispersion
2015 Electoral Ridings View of Ethnic Enclaves
50
100
150
200
Ethnic Origin Visible Minorities Religious Minorities
015
35
218
67
42
77
144
112
93
65
182
135
27
< 5% 5-20% 20-50% 50-70% 70% plus
4
Growth in Candidates 2015
Visible Minority 2004 - 2015 Elections
5%
9%
14%
18%
Citizens Lib CPC NDP BQ
2004 2006 2008 2011 2015
5
2015 Candidates
6
PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN CANDIDATES 2015 ELECTION
13%
25%
38%
50%
Liberal CPC NDP Green Bloc
28%
39%
43%
20%
31%
3%
11%
13%13%
17%
Visible Minorities Women
15%
30%
45%
60%
Citizens Overall Liberal Cabinet CPC NDP Other
27%
41%
17%
48%
27%26%
51%
0%
5%
6%
16%
21%
14%15%
Visible Minorities Women
7
2015 Elections
13%
25%
38%
50%
Visible Minority Women
50%
0%
45%
3%
13%13%
35%
9%
34%
24%
50%
17%
Liberal Cabinet Liberal PS or Equiv CPC Critics CPC Dep Critics
NDP Critics NDP Dep Critics 8
Cabinet and Critics
10%
20%
30%
40%
Women Visible Minority Indigenous
0%
7%
39%
0%
2%
19%
5%
22%22%
Liberal Conservative NDP
9
Parliamentary Committees
Membership 2016 as Share of Caucus
10%
20%
30%
40%
Women Visible Minority
4%
36%
0%
12%
4%
24%
Liberal Chair CPCVice-Chair NDPVice-Chair
10
Committee Chairs 2016
Liberal Only
Visible Minority MPs
Gender and Party
11
VISIBLE MINORITY CANDIDATES BY GENDER IN 33 RIDINGS WITH OVER 50 %VISIBLE MINORITIES
8
17
25
33
Liberal Conservative NDP
2
1
12
5
27
Men Women
Over/Under Representation
Compared to Visible Minority Citizens
12
1.8%
3.5%
5.3%
7.0%
South Asian Chinese West Asian Black Arab L American SE Asian
Percentage Total MPs Percentage Total Citizens
Cabinet
• Gender parity (15 men, 15 women, plus PM)
• But all 5 supporting ministers, 1 of whom visible minority
• 5 Visible Minority Ministers
• 3 men, 2 women
• 3 foreign-born
• 4 Sikh, 1 Muslim
• 2 Aboriginal (1 woman, 1 man, latter resigned)
• 2 Persons with Disabilities (1 woman, 1 man)
• Diversity and Inclusion committee
13
Parliamentary Secretaries,
Other
• 35, of which 12 women (34 percent)
• 8 visible minority (23 percent)
• 6 men, 3 women
• 6 foreign-born
• 3 Black, 3 South Asian (2 Sikh), 1 Chinese, 1 Arab, 1 Latin American
• 1 Aboriginal woman
• Other
• Government whips, gender parity but no visible minority
• House leaders, 2 men, 1 visible minority (Chinese)
14
Aboriginal Peoples
• 54 Aboriginal candidates (5.3 %)
• 10 elected MPs (3.0 %), up from 7 (2.3 %),
compared to 4 % of the population
• 8 Liberal, 2 NDP
• Increase in Aboriginal vote
15
‘Big Shift’ - Not so fast
• Outreach — ‘showing up’ — not enough
• Policies matter: citizenship and immigration
restrictions
• Wedge politics weaker than broader values
• Overall campaign message vs boutique politics
16
Conclusion
• All parties compete for ethnic votes
• Greater efforts to recruit visible minorities
• Visible minorities well-represented
• But variance among different groups
• Limits to identity/wedge politics
17
Andrew Griffith
Email: agriffith232@gmail.com
Twitter: @andrew_griffith
LinkedIn: andrewlgriffith
Facebook: Andrew Griffith C&M
Blog: www.multiculturalmeanderings.wordpress.com
Books: lulu.com

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Election 2015: Diversity of MPs

  • 1. Big Shift or Big Return? Visible Minority Representation in the 2015 Election Andrew Griffith Metropolis Toronto 5 March 2016
  • 2. Agenda • Riding portrait • Candidates • MPs Elected • Over/under representation • 33 Visible Majority Ridings • MP comparison • Implications 2
  • 3. Methodology • NHS and Elections Canada data • Mix of names, photos, MP profiles, Parliamentary website • Number of visible minority citizens (15 %), not total population (19 %) 3
  • 4. Concentration vs Dispersion 2015 Electoral Ridings View of Ethnic Enclaves 50 100 150 200 Ethnic Origin Visible Minorities Religious Minorities 015 35 218 67 42 77 144 112 93 65 182 135 27 < 5% 5-20% 20-50% 50-70% 70% plus 4
  • 5. Growth in Candidates 2015 Visible Minority 2004 - 2015 Elections 5% 9% 14% 18% Citizens Lib CPC NDP BQ 2004 2006 2008 2011 2015 5
  • 6. 2015 Candidates 6 PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN CANDIDATES 2015 ELECTION 13% 25% 38% 50% Liberal CPC NDP Green Bloc 28% 39% 43% 20% 31% 3% 11% 13%13% 17% Visible Minorities Women
  • 7. 15% 30% 45% 60% Citizens Overall Liberal Cabinet CPC NDP Other 27% 41% 17% 48% 27%26% 51% 0% 5% 6% 16% 21% 14%15% Visible Minorities Women 7 2015 Elections
  • 8. 13% 25% 38% 50% Visible Minority Women 50% 0% 45% 3% 13%13% 35% 9% 34% 24% 50% 17% Liberal Cabinet Liberal PS or Equiv CPC Critics CPC Dep Critics NDP Critics NDP Dep Critics 8 Cabinet and Critics
  • 9. 10% 20% 30% 40% Women Visible Minority Indigenous 0% 7% 39% 0% 2% 19% 5% 22%22% Liberal Conservative NDP 9 Parliamentary Committees Membership 2016 as Share of Caucus
  • 10. 10% 20% 30% 40% Women Visible Minority 4% 36% 0% 12% 4% 24% Liberal Chair CPCVice-Chair NDPVice-Chair 10 Committee Chairs 2016 Liberal Only
  • 11. Visible Minority MPs Gender and Party 11 VISIBLE MINORITY CANDIDATES BY GENDER IN 33 RIDINGS WITH OVER 50 %VISIBLE MINORITIES 8 17 25 33 Liberal Conservative NDP 2 1 12 5 27 Men Women
  • 12. Over/Under Representation Compared to Visible Minority Citizens 12 1.8% 3.5% 5.3% 7.0% South Asian Chinese West Asian Black Arab L American SE Asian Percentage Total MPs Percentage Total Citizens
  • 13. Cabinet • Gender parity (15 men, 15 women, plus PM) • But all 5 supporting ministers, 1 of whom visible minority • 5 Visible Minority Ministers • 3 men, 2 women • 3 foreign-born • 4 Sikh, 1 Muslim • 2 Aboriginal (1 woman, 1 man, latter resigned) • 2 Persons with Disabilities (1 woman, 1 man) • Diversity and Inclusion committee 13
  • 14. Parliamentary Secretaries, Other • 35, of which 12 women (34 percent) • 8 visible minority (23 percent) • 6 men, 3 women • 6 foreign-born • 3 Black, 3 South Asian (2 Sikh), 1 Chinese, 1 Arab, 1 Latin American • 1 Aboriginal woman • Other • Government whips, gender parity but no visible minority • House leaders, 2 men, 1 visible minority (Chinese) 14
  • 15. Aboriginal Peoples • 54 Aboriginal candidates (5.3 %) • 10 elected MPs (3.0 %), up from 7 (2.3 %), compared to 4 % of the population • 8 Liberal, 2 NDP • Increase in Aboriginal vote 15
  • 16. ‘Big Shift’ - Not so fast • Outreach — ‘showing up’ — not enough • Policies matter: citizenship and immigration restrictions • Wedge politics weaker than broader values • Overall campaign message vs boutique politics 16
  • 17. Conclusion • All parties compete for ethnic votes • Greater efforts to recruit visible minorities • Visible minorities well-represented • But variance among different groups • Limits to identity/wedge politics 17
  • 18. Andrew Griffith Email: agriffith232@gmail.com Twitter: @andrew_griffith LinkedIn: andrewlgriffith Facebook: Andrew Griffith C&M Blog: www.multiculturalmeanderings.wordpress.com Books: lulu.com