Zimbabweans cite unemployment as the most important problem facing citizens. A majority approve of President Mugabe's performance over the past 12 months. Almost half of adult Zimbabweans support the idea of an opposition grand coalition ahead of the 2018 elections. However, a survey shows that if presidential elections were held at the time of the survey, ZANU-PF would have a clear edge over opposition parties like MDC-T.

1. WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Citizen views on most important
problems and 2018 voting intentions
Findings from Afrobarometer Round 7 survey in
Zimbabwe
Presented at Harare, Zimbabwe
10 May 2017

2. At a glance
• Most important problems: Zimbabweans cite
unemployment as the most important problem facing
citizens that the government has to address.
• Performance approval of elected leaders: A majority
approves of President Mugabe’s performance over the
past 12 months.
• Support for grand coalition: Almost half of adult
Zimbabweans support the idea of a grand coalition
ahead of the harmonised elections.
• Voting intentions : Survey shows that ZANU-PF has a
clear edge if presidential elections were to be held
tomorrow.

3. What is Afrobarometer?
• A pan-African, non-partisan survey research project that
measures citizen attitudes on democracy and governance,
the economy, civil society, and other topics.
• Started in 12 African countries in 1999, expanded to 36
countries in Round 6 (2014/2015). Round 7 surveys are being
conducted in 2016/2017.
• Goal: To give the public a voice in policymaking by providing
high-quality public opinion data to policymakers, policy
advocates, civil society organizations, academics, news
media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.
• A national partner in each country conducts the survey. In
Zimbabwe, Afrobarometer Round 7 survey was conducted by
the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI).

4. Where Afrobarometer works

5. Methodology
• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens
 All respondents are randomly selected.
 Sample is distributed across regions/states/provinces and urban/rural
areas in proportion to their share in the national population.
 Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected.
• Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s
choice.
• Standard questionnaire allows comparisons across countries and
over time.
• Sample size in Zimbabwe of 1200 adult citizens yields a margin of
error of +/-3% at a 95% confidence level.
• Fieldwork for Round 7 in Zimbabwe was conducted between 28
January and 10 February 2017.

6. Survey coverage

7. Survey demographics
Gender %
Men 50
Women 50
Residence
Urban 33%
Rural 67%
Education
No formal education 6%
Primary 21%
Secondary 58%
Post-secondary 15%
Religion
Christian 74%
Muslim 1%
Other 25%
7

8. Findings

9. Most Important Problems for
Zimbabweans

10. Key findings
■ Five in 10 adult Zimbabweans (53%) identify unemployment
as the most important problem that the government should
address.
■ There is an increase, from 22% in 2014 to 31% in 2017, in the
number of Zimbabweans who think that management of
the economy is the number two problem, behind
unemployment, that the government of Zimbabwe needs to
address.
■ The survey also shows an increase in the proportions of
ordinary Zimbabweans calling for the government to
address infrastructure/roads (29% from 22% in 2014), wages,
incomes and salaries (18% from 13% in 2014) and food
shortages/famine (20% from 10% in 2014).

11. Most important problems | Zimbabwe | 2014 and
2017
Respondents were asked: In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing this
country that government should address?
53%
31%
13%
8%
29%
13%
18%
14%
15%
20%
17%
51%
22%
19%
17%
22%
14%
13%
19%
19%
10%
20%
Unemployment
Management of the economy
Corruption
Farming/agriculture
Infrastructure / roads
Poverty/destitution
Wages, incomes and salaries
Water supply
Education
Food shortage/famine
Health
2014 2017

12. Performance approval ratings
of leaders

13. Key findings
■ President Mugabe continues to get positive ratings from
Zimbabweans with above half (56%) saying that they
approve of the way he has performed his jobs over the past
12 months.
■ Less than half (40%) of adult Zimbabweans approve of the
way their MPs have performed their jobs over the past 12
months.
■ More women (57%) than men (55%) and more rural (63%)
than urban (44%) based citizens approve of President
Mugabe’s performance. However, there is an inverse
relationship between education level and approval of
president’s performance.

14. Performance approval for leaders | Zimbabwe |2017
Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the following
people have performed their jobs over the past twelve months, or haven’t you heard enough
about them to say? (the total proportion for mayor and traditional leaders does not add up
to 100% because of the N/A category which is not reported)
Approve/Strongly
Approve
Disapprove/Strongly
Disapprove
Refused
Don’t
know
President 56% 34% 5% 6%
Your mayor 51% 21% 13% 1%
Local government
councilors
49% 42% 2% 7%
Member of Parliament 40% 48% 3% 10%
Traditional leaders 28% 28% 1% 25%

15. Approval of President’s performance| by education,
urban-rural location and gender |Zimbabwe | 2017
37%
31%
42%
29%
15%
22%
36%
53%
34%
55%
57%
44%
63%
79%
71%
52%
37%
56%
Men
Women
Urban
Rural
No formal education
Primary
Secondary
Post-secondary
Average
Approve/Strongly Approve Disapprove/Strongly Disapprove
Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the following people
have performed their jobs over the past twelve months, or haven’t you heard enough about
them to say?

16. Approval of President’s performance | by province |
Zimbabwe | 2017
74%
66%
65%
59%
56%
54%
51%
47%
43%
37%
56%
14%
29%
30%
31%
35%
37%
36%
47%
37%
43%
34%
Masvingo
Mashonaland Central
Midlands
Matabeleland South
Mashonaland West
Mashonaland East
Harare
Manicaland
Bulawayo
Matabeleland North
Total
Disapprove/Strongly Disapprove Approve/Strongly Approve
Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the following people
have performed their jobs over the past twelve months, or haven’t you heard enough about
them to say?

17. Approval of President’s performance | Zimbabwe
|1999 - 2017
Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the following people
have performed their jobs over the past twelve months, or haven’t you heard enough about
them to say?
69%
28%
70%
66%
39%
37%
34%
21%
59%
27%
24%
59%
57% 56%
1999 2004 2005 2009 2012 2014 2017
Disapprove/ Strongly Disapprove Approve/Strongly Approve

18. Freedom to criticise public
figures and institutions

19. Key findings
■ A majority of Zimbabweans (62%) are not at all free to
criticise President Robert Mugabe.
■ Midlands province has the highest proportion of
residents (78%) while Mashonaland West province has
the least proportion (41%) of residents who do ‘not at
all’ feel free to criticise the President.

20. Freedom to criticise leaders and institutions
|Zimbabwe |2017
Respondents were asked: In this country, how free do you feel to criticise the following:
78%
73%
62%
63%
55%
55%
53%
50%
15%
23%
33%
34%
35%
41%
37%
33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
President Mugabe
The army
Your MP
The police
Joice Mujuru
Your councilor
Morgan Tsvangirai
Your traditional leader
Somewhat/Completely free Not very free/Not at all free

21. Freedom to criticise President Mugabe | by political party
affiliation, education and urban-rural location | Zimbabwe | 2017
Respondents were asked: In this country, how free do you feel to criticise the following:
64%
61%
54%
67%
62%
58%
71%
58%
62%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Urban
Rural
No formal education
Primary
Secondary
Post-secondary
MDC-T
ZANU-PF
Total
Urban Rural No formal education Primary Secondary Post-secondary MDC-T ZANU-PF Total

22. Freedom to criticise President |by province |
Zimbabwe |2017
Respondents were asked: In this country, how free do you feel to criticise the following:
78%
73%
72%
72%
65%
65%
62%
58%
57%
53%
41%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Midlands
Matabeleland North
Bulawayo
Matabeleland South
Harare
Manicaland
Average
Masvingo
Mashonaland East
Mashonaland Central
Mashonaland West

23. Attitudes towards opposition grand
coalition ahead of 2018 elections

24. Key findings
■ A plurality of adult Zimbabweans (45%) agree that
opposition political parties should work together under
a grand coalition in order for them to win the 2018
harmonized elections.
■ Support for a grand coalition ahead of 2018 elections
is strongest among citizens who have post-secondary
education (62%) and live in urban areas (59%).
Majorities are supportive in Matabeleland North (52%),
Harare (62%) and Bulawayo (64%) provinces.

25. Support for grand coalition ahead of 2018 harmonised
elections |Zimbabwe | 2017
Respondents were asked: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you
disagree or agree, or haven’t you heard enough to say? In order to win the 2018 Presidential
election, opposition political parties should work together under a Grand Coalition
2%
15%
11%
28%
45%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Refused Don’t know Neither Agree nor
Disagree
Disagree/Strongly
Disagree
Agree/Strongly Agree

26. Support for grand coalition ahead of 2018 harmonised elections |
by gender, urban-rural location and education |Zimbabwe |
2017
Respondents were asked: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you
disagree or agree, or haven’t you heard enough to say? In order to win the 2018 Presidential
election, opposition political parties should work together under a grand coalition
47%
42%
59%
36%
21%
36%
46%
62%
45%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Men
Women
Urban
Rural
No formal education
Primary
Secondary
Post-secondary
Average

27. Support for grand coalition ahead of 2018 harmonised elections |
by party affiliation |Zimbabwe | 2017
Respondents were asked: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you
disagree or agree, or haven’t you heard enough to say? In order to win the 2018 Presidential
election, opposition political parties should work together under a grand coalition
28%
41%
30%
20%
33%
20%
45%
23%
47%
54%
67%
68%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Average
ZANU-PF
Zim-PF
Non-partisan
Other parties
MDC-T
Agree/Strongly agree Disagree/Strongly disagree

28. Support for grand coalition | by province | Zimbabwe
| 2017
Respondents were asked: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you
disagree or agree, or haven’t you heard enough to say? In order to win the 2018 Presidential
election, opposition political parties should work together under a grand coalition
64%
62%
54%
45%
45%
44%
42%
39%
34%
31%
26%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Bulawayo
Harare
Matabeleland North
Average
Mashonaland East
Masvingo
Manicaland
Mashonaland West
Mashonaland Central
Matabeleland South
Midlands

29. Voting intentions

30. Key findings
■ Survey shows that ZANU-PF has an edge if presidential elections
were to be held tomorrow.
■ Asked which party’s candidate one would vote for in a
hypothetical presidential elections, a day after the survey, 38%
said ZANU-PF, 24% refused to answer, 16% said MDC-T, 11% said
they would note vote and 4% said they would vote for a ZIMPF
candidate (before the split) and 2% said they would vote for other
parties.
■ Survey shows that ZANU-PF still commands support in the rural
areas while a plurality (31%) of those who refused to answer are
urban based.

31. Voting intentions | Zimbabwe | 2017
Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which
party’s candidate would you vote for?
38%
24%
16%
11%
5%
4%
2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
ZANU-PF
Refused to answer
MDC-T
Would not vote
Don't know
ZPF – Joice Mujuru (before split)
Other

32. Voting intentions | by urban-rural location | Zimbabwe
| 2017
Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which
party’s candidate would you vote for?
19%
24%
3%
4%
14%
31%
6%
14%
47%
2%
3%
9%
21%
4%
16%
38%
2%
4%
11%
24%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
MDC-T ZANU-PF Other ZPF (before
split)
Would not
vote
Refused DK
Urban Rural Total

33. Voting intentions | by education level| Zimbabwe |
2017
Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which party’s
candidate would you vote for?
5%
10%
18%
21%
16%
61%
55%
34%
18%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
No formal
education
Primary Secondary Post-secondary Total
MDC-T ZANU-PF

34. Voting intentions | by province | Zimbabwe | 2017
Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which party’s
candidate would you vote for?
14%
6%
13%
7%
10%
23%
24%
20%
22%
12%
16%
51%
51%
49%
47%
42%
41%
33%
26%
25%
24%
38%
Matabeleland South
Mashonaland Central
Midlands
Masvingo
Mashonaland East
Mashonaland West
Manicaland
Harare
Matabeleland North
Bulawayo
Total
ZANU-PF MDC-T

35. Voting intentions | by age |
Zimbabwe | 2017
16%
20%
11%
16%
32%
38%
54%
38%
27%
26%
17%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
18-35 36-50 51+ Total
MDC-T ZANU-PF Refused

36. Professed voting intentions | Zimbabwe | 2005 - 2017
Respondents were asked: If presidential elections were held tomorrow, which party’s
candidate would you vote for?
29% 24%
32%
31%
44%
38%39%
57%
36%
32%
21% 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2009 2010 2012 2014 2017
ZANU-PF MDC-T

37. Conclusions

38. • A majority of Zimbabweans view the unemployment
problem as a fundamental problem that the
government has to deal with.
• President Mugabe continues to get positive ratings
from Zimbabweans with more than half saying that
they approve of the way he has performed their jobs
over the past twelve months.
• Close to half of adult citizens feel that the opposition
has a realistic chance of winning next year’s
presidential elections if they form a grand coalition.
Despite this, the ruling ZANU-PF has an edge over the
MDC-T and other opposition political parties.

39. Thank you
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