2018 Election Overview

2018 Election Briefing
May 17th, 2018
Third Eye
Strategies

• Overview
• Trump Approval
• Generic CongressVote
• YouthTurnout
• View of the Parties
• US Senate Battleground
• US House Battleground
• AdvertisingTrends
• Questions

Democratic Overperformance
Democratic Underperformance

Most Recent Special Election – Arizona 8th

•From 2009 to 2016, Republicans have
won:
• 62 more US House Seats (178→240)
• 31 more state legislative bodies (36 →67)
• 13 more Governorship (21 → 34)
• 12 more US Senate Seats (40→52)
• 935 more State Legislative Seats
(3,223→4,158)

All Live Phone Polls – Pollingreport.com

AllVoters
Civiqs Online January 20, 2017 – May 8, 2018

White Independent Men

White IndependentWomen

University of Michigan
Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Obama Trump

Pew ResearchCenter, May 1, 2018
% Confident

Consortium National Jan-Apr 2018, n=2,074 Persuadable LV’s,GQR Research

• In August 2016, 46% believedTrump would handle the
economy better vs. 42% for Hillary. She never reversed
that asTrump had a 49%-46% edge on this in the exit
poll.
• Voters split equally on whether “government should do
more to solve problems and help meet the needs of the
people” (47%) and “government is doing too many
things better left to businesses and individuals.”
Hart Research/PublicOpinion Strategies,August 2016

Third Eye Strategies, Battleground NM House Polls, June-July 2016

Third Eye Strategies Focus Groups,Virginia,Winter/Spring 2017
• Voters largely disapprove ofTrump, but don’t see him as
the leader of the Republican Party
• They see him as something separate because he:
• Doesn’t hold Republican views
• Republicans disagree with him
• He has become too extreme
• For some,Trump being President makes them more likely
to vote in off year elections. Others have the opposite
reaction
• The chaos ofTrump in the news causes people to tune out

Civiqs OnlineApril 4, 2017 – May 8, 2018
AllVoters

White Independent Men

White IndependentWomen

18-34Year Olds

White 65+Year Olds

Even in races won by Democrats/Progressives

And Democrats inTough States Depend on It
Quinnipiac University,April 12-17, 2017

Third Eye StrategiesAnalysis of US CensusVoter Registration Supplement &Texas Registration Data

IndependentWomen – of Democrats

IndependentWomen – of Republicans

Independent Men – of Democrats

Independent Men – of Republicans

01020+ 10 20+
Movement to HillaryMovement toTrump

01020+ 10 20+
Movement to Hillary
By 3+ Points
Movement toTrump
By More than 3 Points

Survey Monkey, February 12 - March 5, 2018 – GOP candidates named in FL/PA/OH/MO

Third Eye Strategies/PPP – January 2014

1988
1982
1982
2006
2016
1990
1988
1970

HighWhite Education/LowWhite HighWhite Education/
HighWhite
LowWhite Education/LowWhite
LowWhite Education/
HighWhite

HighWhite
LowWhite Education/
HighWhite
36 Dem
44 GOP
83 Dem
20 GOP
46 Dem
23 GOP
29 Dem
154 GOP

HighWhite
LowWhite Education/
HighWhite
% Dem
36.8% – 2000
45.0% – 2016
+8.2
% Dem
73.0% – 2000
80.6% – 2016
+7.6
% Dem
64.4% – 2000
66.7% – 2016
+2.3
% Dem
37.6% – 2000
15.8% – 2016
-21.8

Hillary 45%+
6 Open Seats
Net Hillary

Hillary <45%
3 Open Seats
Net Hillary

• Hillary won 23 districts represented by
Republicans. Obama won 20 in 2012.
• In 2010, in districts Republicans flipped,
37 (of 49 total Dem-McCain) were won by
McCain and 30 were won by Obama.
• 58 (out of 67) districts the GOP flipped
were won by Bush in 2004 and held by
Democrats

Virginia
House 2017Hillary-GOP Districts

Many More Ads Running Compared to 2014
Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project, Data as of 5/3/2018

Big Jump in Outside Group Ads for US House
Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project, Data as of 5/3/2018

Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project – As of May 3rd

Dark Money Accounts for 3 in 5 Dollars in Congressional Races
Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project

Pro-Dem Pro-GOP
Healthcare Pro-Trump
Economy (Jobs/Budget/Taxes) Immigration
Coal Economy (Jobs/Taxes)
Social Security Abortion
Veterans Issues Anti-Obama
Campaign Finance Anti-Clinton
Corruption Guns
Republican Candidates Happy to MentionTrump.
Kantar Media/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project
Races include US House and US Senate in states holding May 8 primaries
(Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and WestVirginia).

New PollingTechniques Shows Stability in Races

• Election narratives are often wrong
• Democrats have made little macro
progress since 2016
• Take close polls seriously
• 3Vs (Vote/Volunteer/Vite a Check)

• CandidateQuality Matters – Best things
for Democrats long-term are new people
entering politics because ofTrump
• We have to get serious about youth
turnout and educating young people
about the connection between electoral
politics and their future. Multiyear/Year
round process

• Build on 2018 gains, no matter how
small. Be inspired, not dejected.The
Right has been playing a long game for
decades.We have to as well no matter
how exhausting and demoralizing

• The GOP is not running on any coherent
agenda.They do best when not pushing
unpopular policies.Tying themselves to
unstable economic indicators is a recipe
for disaster if we can hold them
accountable when they fail

• Candidates who will succeed going
forward are people who:
• Speak clearly about who they are
• Have a clear plan (as opposed to
issue positions) for the future
• Articulate moral clarity about the big
questions of the day (Abolish ICE!)

• Candidates who will succeed going
forward are people who:
• Connect their story and agenda to
people in their daily lives. Speak to
people in the second person
• Don’t worry about precise messaging
and positioning. Not afraid to lose
• Develop a language of accountability
for themselves and the GOP

2018 Election Overview

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