The document discusses the ongoing euro crisis. It makes several key points:
1) The eurozone is still in recession with poor long-term growth prospects. Debt levels are very high, creating a "vicious cycle" of low growth and high debt.
2) Financial markets and economic policy remain in a crisis mode, as seen by high bond yields and risk premiums. Bailouts by the European Central Bank continue to prevent adjustments.
3) The best solution is budget consolidation and growth-promoting policies, but implementation is difficult. If this strategy fails there are only bad options like more bailouts, debt restructuring, or inflation.
4) Governments seem to favor inflation but
Recent developments in the canadian economy dec2011Sam Batarseh
The document summarizes recent economic developments in Canada and provides projections. It finds that while global growth has weakened, emerging economies continue to lead growth. Domestic demand is projected to be the main driver of growth in Canada, with exports and business investment remaining strong. Real GDP growth is expected to pick up in Canada through 2012 as excess capacity is absorbed.
- Around 90-95% of exported shea is used in cocoa butter equivalents (CBEs), which are blended with palm oil and used to replace or improve cocoa butter in chocolate.
- Demand for CBEs depends on chocolate demand trends, legislation defining chocolate, consumer preferences, and price. Chocolate demand is growing around 2% annually, led by emerging markets in Asia, South America, and Eastern Europe.
- Cocoa production is vulnerable due to aging trees, disease, and low yields. The key producers of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana have increased production but yields remain low. Future output relies on increasing yields through new hybrid varieties.
European tourism 2011 - Trends & ProspectsMarinet Ltd
A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Group of the European Travel Commission (ETC) by Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)
The document discusses Estonia's experience in adopting the euro. Some of the benefits highlighted include providing economic stability, boosting confidence, and supporting an open economy. Metrics shown include Estonia maintaining low fiscal deficits and debt levels relative to the EU average, experiencing inflation below 1%, and seeing credit rating upgrades after euro adoption.
Konstantīns Beņkovskis, Julia Wörz. Evaluation of Non-Price Competitiveness o...Eesti Pank
The document evaluates the price and non-price competitiveness of exports from Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries to the EU market. It outlines limitations of traditional real effective exchange rate indicators and proposes a theoretical framework to assess changes in relative export prices adjusted for quality or taste using elasticities of substitution. Estimates of elasticities are obtained through a system of demand and supply equations estimated with GMM. The results suggest median elasticities of substitution between 4.9-6.2 for large EU countries.
This document provides statistics on higher education in the UK covering students, staff, finances, and expenditures for the years 2010-2011. Some key facts include:
- There were over 2.5 million students enrolled in UK higher education institutions.
- Non-UK domiciled students made up over 12% of the total, with most coming from Asia and the EU.
- Total income for UK higher education institutions was over £27 billion, with most coming from government grants and student fees.
- Staff costs accounted for 56% of total expenditures of over £27 billion.
- Public expenditures on higher education as a percentage of GDP ranged from under 1% to over 1.5% across countries.
Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA RegionIMF
The global economic outlook has weakened, with downside risks increasing. For the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, 2012 will be difficult for oil importing countries, with strains on macroeconomic stability. Reforms are needed across MENA to support inclusive growth and job creation going forward.
1) The document analyzes Accuride's financial performance in 2012 and provides forecasts. It finds that revenues increased 30% year-over-year to NT$172.5 billion while net profits grew 24% to NT$2.77 billion in 2012.
2) Accuride's wheel end products division saw revenues increase 37% year-over-year to NT$70 billion in 2012, driven by higher global vehicle production. The division's profit margin expanded to 35% from 31.6% in the previous year.
3) The document forecasts that Accuride's revenues will increase by 10-15% in the first half of 2012 and by 16-17% in the second half
Recent developments in the canadian economy dec2011Sam Batarseh
The document summarizes recent economic developments in Canada and provides projections. It finds that while global growth has weakened, emerging economies continue to lead growth. Domestic demand is projected to be the main driver of growth in Canada, with exports and business investment remaining strong. Real GDP growth is expected to pick up in Canada through 2012 as excess capacity is absorbed.
- Around 90-95% of exported shea is used in cocoa butter equivalents (CBEs), which are blended with palm oil and used to replace or improve cocoa butter in chocolate.
- Demand for CBEs depends on chocolate demand trends, legislation defining chocolate, consumer preferences, and price. Chocolate demand is growing around 2% annually, led by emerging markets in Asia, South America, and Eastern Europe.
- Cocoa production is vulnerable due to aging trees, disease, and low yields. The key producers of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana have increased production but yields remain low. Future output relies on increasing yields through new hybrid varieties.
European tourism 2011 - Trends & ProspectsMarinet Ltd
A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Group of the European Travel Commission (ETC) by Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)
The document discusses Estonia's experience in adopting the euro. Some of the benefits highlighted include providing economic stability, boosting confidence, and supporting an open economy. Metrics shown include Estonia maintaining low fiscal deficits and debt levels relative to the EU average, experiencing inflation below 1%, and seeing credit rating upgrades after euro adoption.
Konstantīns Beņkovskis, Julia Wörz. Evaluation of Non-Price Competitiveness o...Eesti Pank
The document evaluates the price and non-price competitiveness of exports from Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries to the EU market. It outlines limitations of traditional real effective exchange rate indicators and proposes a theoretical framework to assess changes in relative export prices adjusted for quality or taste using elasticities of substitution. Estimates of elasticities are obtained through a system of demand and supply equations estimated with GMM. The results suggest median elasticities of substitution between 4.9-6.2 for large EU countries.
This document provides statistics on higher education in the UK covering students, staff, finances, and expenditures for the years 2010-2011. Some key facts include:
- There were over 2.5 million students enrolled in UK higher education institutions.
- Non-UK domiciled students made up over 12% of the total, with most coming from Asia and the EU.
- Total income for UK higher education institutions was over £27 billion, with most coming from government grants and student fees.
- Staff costs accounted for 56% of total expenditures of over £27 billion.
- Public expenditures on higher education as a percentage of GDP ranged from under 1% to over 1.5% across countries.
Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA RegionIMF
The global economic outlook has weakened, with downside risks increasing. For the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, 2012 will be difficult for oil importing countries, with strains on macroeconomic stability. Reforms are needed across MENA to support inclusive growth and job creation going forward.
1) The document analyzes Accuride's financial performance in 2012 and provides forecasts. It finds that revenues increased 30% year-over-year to NT$172.5 billion while net profits grew 24% to NT$2.77 billion in 2012.
2) Accuride's wheel end products division saw revenues increase 37% year-over-year to NT$70 billion in 2012, driven by higher global vehicle production. The division's profit margin expanded to 35% from 31.6% in the previous year.
3) The document forecasts that Accuride's revenues will increase by 10-15% in the first half of 2012 and by 16-17% in the second half
The document discusses future economic trends in the Baltic Sea Region, including economic development, trade, innovation, and demographic changes. It notes that the Baltic Sea Region has strong economic potential due to its large population and GDP. Small and medium enterprises are highlighted as the backbone of the European economy, comprising most businesses and employment. Innovation is also discussed as being fundamental for stimulating growth of small and medium enterprises.
This document analyzes the linkages between different sectors of the Irish economy that contributed to the financial crisis. It discusses 3 key linkages: 1) How rising household credit led to rising debt levels. 2) How private sector debt accumulated and was transferred to the public sector balance sheet. 3) How expectations of continued growth were not met with reality as the economy entered a demand-deficient recession. The document uses charts and data to show trends in household borrowing, debt, asset prices, unemployment and other economic indicators to demonstrate these interlinkages and how Ireland's crisis emerged.
The document provides statistics on Ireland's economy and its relationship with the EU from 1960 to 2005. Key metrics shown include Ireland's GDP per capita increasing sharply from 1960 to 2005, high employment rates from 1996 to 2005 for both males and females, unemployment rates generally lower than the EU average, government debt as a percentage of GDP declining after peaking in the late 1990s, and Ireland typically running budget deficits smaller than the EU limit.
Sedo is a global domain marketplace founded in 2001 with over 180 employees. It is the world's leading domain marketplace, facilitating the buying and selling of over 14 million domains. Sedo also offers domain parking and monetization services, parking over 5 million domains. The presentation discusses trends in the European secondary domain market, Sedo's role in facilitating this market, statistics on domain transactions and values, and the growth of the online advertising market in Europe which drives demand for domain names.
The document discusses international trends in higher education funding structures. It notes three key trends: 1) massification of higher education systems with more students attending university; 2) a shift from public to private sources of funding for higher education; and 3) a focus on quality assurance and the role of universities in serving society and the economy. Tables and charts show data on tertiary education across various countries, including attainment rates, proportions of international students, public and private spending, and tuition charges. The document concludes by comparing the public funding structures of higher education in the US, England, and Canada.
Sitra: Kuluttajien asentet geenitutkimuksia kohtaan (Taloustutkimus 12/2013)Sitra / Hyvinvointi
Joka kolmas suomalainen olisi valmis arvioimaan elämäntapojaan uudelleen, mikäli hän saisi tarkempaa tietoa omista perinnöllisistä riskitekijöistään, selviää Sitran Taloustutkimuksella teettämässä kyselytutkimuksessa. Valtaosa suomalaisista suhtautuu geenitestien yleistymiseen terveydenhuollossa myönteisesti. Tärkeimpänä kehityskohteena kansalaiset pitävät lainsäädännön kehittämistä sellaiseksi, etteivät geenitiedot joudu ulkopuolisten käsiin.
Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin kansalaisten asenteita geenitestejä kohtaan, geenitesteihin liittyviä huolenaiheita ja sitä, kenelle päätös geenitestin tekemisestä kuuluu. Tutkimuksen kohdejoukkona oli valtakunnallisesti edustava otos yli 15-vuotiaista, internetiä käyttävistä suomalaisista. Vastaajamäärä oli 2071 henkilöä.
This document discusses industrial symbiosis and sustainable revenue generation through connecting industries. It describes how an industrial symbiosis approach can help create a more circular economic system where waste from one industry becomes a resource for another, reducing use of natural resources and generating new business opportunities and mutual economic and environmental benefits. The document provides examples of industrial symbiosis projects in Denmark that created new business models leveraging underutilized resources and residuals. It advocates changing the way businesses think and conduct operations to embrace industrial symbiosis approaches.
This document discusses child and youth care reform in the Netherlands and the Youth Risks Reference Index (VIR). It provides background on the VIR, which is an electronic signposting system that allows professionals to report risk signals about youth aged 23 and younger. Research on the VIR found great diversity in its local implementation and use. Common reasons for reporting included professional assessment of risk, while barriers included concerns over privacy and lack of information. The document recommends optimizing the VIR through training, clearer guidelines, expanding authorized organizations, and improving feedback. It notes the VIR may help integrate services at the municipal level under new youth care legislation.
Suomen ympäristökeskuksen SYKE:n johtajan Jyri Seppälän esitys Jyväskylän resurssiviisaustiekartan ympäristövaikutusten arviointi Sitran Kaupunkiverkoston työpajassa 25.11.2014
Sitra, Kokemuksia palveluväylästä -seminaari 15.5.2014. Palveluväyläkokemuksia, Espoon palveluväyläpilotti, Hankejohtaja Kari Kankaanhuhta, Espoon kaupunki
The document discusses future economic trends in the Baltic Sea Region, including economic development, trade, innovation, and demographic changes. It notes that the Baltic Sea Region has strong economic potential due to its large population and GDP. Small and medium enterprises are highlighted as the backbone of the European economy, comprising most businesses and employment. Innovation is also discussed as being fundamental for stimulating growth of small and medium enterprises.
This document analyzes the linkages between different sectors of the Irish economy that contributed to the financial crisis. It discusses 3 key linkages: 1) How rising household credit led to rising debt levels. 2) How private sector debt accumulated and was transferred to the public sector balance sheet. 3) How expectations of continued growth were not met with reality as the economy entered a demand-deficient recession. The document uses charts and data to show trends in household borrowing, debt, asset prices, unemployment and other economic indicators to demonstrate these interlinkages and how Ireland's crisis emerged.
The document provides statistics on Ireland's economy and its relationship with the EU from 1960 to 2005. Key metrics shown include Ireland's GDP per capita increasing sharply from 1960 to 2005, high employment rates from 1996 to 2005 for both males and females, unemployment rates generally lower than the EU average, government debt as a percentage of GDP declining after peaking in the late 1990s, and Ireland typically running budget deficits smaller than the EU limit.
Sedo is a global domain marketplace founded in 2001 with over 180 employees. It is the world's leading domain marketplace, facilitating the buying and selling of over 14 million domains. Sedo also offers domain parking and monetization services, parking over 5 million domains. The presentation discusses trends in the European secondary domain market, Sedo's role in facilitating this market, statistics on domain transactions and values, and the growth of the online advertising market in Europe which drives demand for domain names.
The document discusses international trends in higher education funding structures. It notes three key trends: 1) massification of higher education systems with more students attending university; 2) a shift from public to private sources of funding for higher education; and 3) a focus on quality assurance and the role of universities in serving society and the economy. Tables and charts show data on tertiary education across various countries, including attainment rates, proportions of international students, public and private spending, and tuition charges. The document concludes by comparing the public funding structures of higher education in the US, England, and Canada.
Sitra: Kuluttajien asentet geenitutkimuksia kohtaan (Taloustutkimus 12/2013)Sitra / Hyvinvointi
Joka kolmas suomalainen olisi valmis arvioimaan elämäntapojaan uudelleen, mikäli hän saisi tarkempaa tietoa omista perinnöllisistä riskitekijöistään, selviää Sitran Taloustutkimuksella teettämässä kyselytutkimuksessa. Valtaosa suomalaisista suhtautuu geenitestien yleistymiseen terveydenhuollossa myönteisesti. Tärkeimpänä kehityskohteena kansalaiset pitävät lainsäädännön kehittämistä sellaiseksi, etteivät geenitiedot joudu ulkopuolisten käsiin.
Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin kansalaisten asenteita geenitestejä kohtaan, geenitesteihin liittyviä huolenaiheita ja sitä, kenelle päätös geenitestin tekemisestä kuuluu. Tutkimuksen kohdejoukkona oli valtakunnallisesti edustava otos yli 15-vuotiaista, internetiä käyttävistä suomalaisista. Vastaajamäärä oli 2071 henkilöä.
This document discusses industrial symbiosis and sustainable revenue generation through connecting industries. It describes how an industrial symbiosis approach can help create a more circular economic system where waste from one industry becomes a resource for another, reducing use of natural resources and generating new business opportunities and mutual economic and environmental benefits. The document provides examples of industrial symbiosis projects in Denmark that created new business models leveraging underutilized resources and residuals. It advocates changing the way businesses think and conduct operations to embrace industrial symbiosis approaches.
This document discusses child and youth care reform in the Netherlands and the Youth Risks Reference Index (VIR). It provides background on the VIR, which is an electronic signposting system that allows professionals to report risk signals about youth aged 23 and younger. Research on the VIR found great diversity in its local implementation and use. Common reasons for reporting included professional assessment of risk, while barriers included concerns over privacy and lack of information. The document recommends optimizing the VIR through training, clearer guidelines, expanding authorized organizations, and improving feedback. It notes the VIR may help integrate services at the municipal level under new youth care legislation.
Suomen ympäristökeskuksen SYKE:n johtajan Jyri Seppälän esitys Jyväskylän resurssiviisaustiekartan ympäristövaikutusten arviointi Sitran Kaupunkiverkoston työpajassa 25.11.2014
Sitra, Kokemuksia palveluväylästä -seminaari 15.5.2014. Palveluväyläkokemuksia, Espoon palveluväyläpilotti, Hankejohtaja Kari Kankaanhuhta, Espoon kaupunki
The document discusses green exercise and trends in wearable technology and physical activity. It notes that green exercise promotes both mental and physical health by relieving stress and restoring the mind and body without being dependent on dosage. Recent trends include increasing sedentary behavior, focus on self-care and health monitoring through wearable devices and connectivity. The Polar V800 is highlighted as a complete training system that uses various sensors to sync activity data through mobile apps and web services.
European Economics Update Belgium & Greece (Feb 10)Geert Noels
Belgium's economy expanded at a quarterly rate of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009, outperforming the eurozone average of 0.1%. While Belgium has a high level of public debt similar to troubled Southern European economies like Greece, it does not face the same risks of household deleveraging due to lower household debt levels. Belgium also benefits from stronger trade links with Northern European economies compared to Southern Europe. As a result, Belgium is expected to continue outperforming most of the eurozone with GDP growth of 1.8% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011 despite its high debt levels.
The document discusses sovereign risk and debt in the euro area. It notes that government deficits and debts have increased significantly since the financial crisis across advanced economies. Within the euro area, there is a large dispersion in deficit and debt levels among countries. Addressing high debt burdens will be challenging and countries have three options: fiscal adjustment through spending cuts or tax increases, inflation, or default/restructuring on debt obligations. Ageing populations are also expected to increase fiscal pressures over the long run.
The document provides an economic analysis and outlook from the Chief Economist of a bank. It summarizes data on GDP growth in Canada and the US, food and commodity price inflation, the economic outlook and recession risks for European economies, challenges for the banking sector in Europe, fiscal policy debates in the US, US consumer behavior, monetary policy outlook from the Fed, and the US housing market. The analysis covers economic indicators and policy issues across multiple countries and regions.
The document discusses the Eurozone crisis. It provides background on the formation of the eurozone and explains how countries like Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain (PIIGS) accumulated large debts and deficits after joining the euro. The crisis emerged as investors lost confidence in sovereign debt from these peripheral economies. Several factors contributed to the crisis, including low interest rates fueling overspending, unsustainable growth models, and banking losses. The EU and ECB have taken steps to address the crisis through monetary easing, bailout funds, and austerity policies.
The document discusses Latvia's experience during the 2008 financial crisis and recovery. It explains that Latvia chose an internal devaluation through austerity and structural reforms rather than devaluing its currency. This led to a rapid but difficult adjustment period and a "V-shaped" economic recovery. Key factors in Latvia's success included speed of implementation, ownership of reforms, commitment to change, and national solidarity. The internal adjustment approach stabilized public finances, restored competitiveness and exports, attracted foreign investment, and put Latvia in a strong position to adopt the Euro in 2014.
1. Economic uncertainty persists in global markets due to slowing growth in China and Europe.
2. Expansionary monetary policies by central banks aim to stimulate growth amid low inflation.
3. Government debt problems in Europe remain a major threat to the global economic outlook.
This document summarizes recent economic developments in the euro area. It notes that interest rates had converged to low levels prior to the crisis. Government debt increased in some countries like Greece, Italy and Portugal prior to the crisis, but not in others like Spain and Ireland. Household debt also increased in some countries. The document discusses progress that has been made in fiscal consolidation and adjusting labor costs. However, it notes that significant policy challenges remain, including institutional reforms, strengthening fiscal and economic surveillance, continuing structural reforms, and ongoing fiscal consolidation linked to growth-friendly reforms.
1) The European sovereign debt crisis remains uncontained, with fiscal burdens increasing across many eurozone countries and further sharp fiscal consolidation still required.
2) While the ECB has taken measures to improve bank lending and reduce bond yields, credit conditions are still tightening and bond yields remain elevated in troubled countries.
3) The eurozone faces the risk of a broader crisis scenario that could significantly slow growth across the region and leave Greece and Portugal stuck in deep recessions for years.
The document discusses the connections between the US financial crisis and the euro crisis in Europe. It argues that Germany's export-led growth model, which relied on wage restraint and trade surpluses, contributed to imbalances within Europe. German banks invested heavily in the debt of peripheral European countries like Greece, Spain, and Italy. When the US housing bubble burst, it exposed vulnerabilities in the global financial system and ultimately led to Europe's sovereign debt crisis.
The European debt crisis began in late 2009 when revelations emerged that Greek government debt levels were much higher than originally reported. Several European countries, including Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain struggled with high debt levels that were exacerbated by the 2008 global financial crisis. While interest rates had dropped due to the Euro, countries like Greece and Italy took on large amounts of debt. Austerity measures have been implemented but growth remains low across Europe as countries struggle under high debt loads. The EU and IMF have implemented bailout programs but long term solutions around fiscal integration and stability remain works in progress.
The document summarizes recent economic trends in Europe. It reports that the euro area remains in a deep recession with rising unemployment, negative inflation, and strained government finances. Some signs of recovery are emerging, such as improving business confidence and stabilizing financial systems, but unemployment continues to rise in most countries. The surge in restructuring and job losses reported in previous quarters has declined slightly in the most recent quarter, but 125,000 job losses were still announced. The economic downturn is projected to last longer in Europe than other major economies.
Anders Nilsson is the EVP of Central European Broadcasting at MTG. He joined MTG in 1992. He loves challenges and hates disloyalty. His favorite quote is "Early to bed, early to rise, work like hell and advertise." The document then provides information about MTG's acquisitions and expansion in Central and Eastern European markets between 1997 and 2012, as well as statistics showing the growth opportunities in these markets for TV advertising.
This document discusses fiscal federalism in the UK during the sovereign debt crisis. It analyzes the impact of the crisis on fiscal decentralization, the performance of UK regions during the crisis, and weaknesses revealed. While the crisis did not change UK fiscal decentralization, it increased calls for more autonomy in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The crisis also exposed deficiencies in central economic management but recent reforms have increased Scottish tax and borrowing powers. However, austerity cuts have reduced regional spending. Upcoming Scottish independence referendum will debate economic issues like currency, debt allocation and fiscal policy in this context.
Peeter Luikmel. Features of Estonian EconomyEesti Pank
Estonia has a small, open economy of 1.34 million people with GDP of about 16 billion euros. While it experienced rapid growth and credit expansion before the crisis, it also suffered a large GDP decline in 2009. However, the economy has recovered faster than expected, helped by improvements in competitiveness from lower wages, higher productivity, and flexible labor markets. Looking forward, monetary policy support and opportunities for investment could help offset risks from the difficult euro area situation, though growth is projected to slow somewhat in the near term.
- Ireland and Spain experienced housing bubbles fueled by excessive credit growth as interest rates fell under EMU, crowding out their tradable sectors.
- The mismanagement of housing markets had significant macroeconomic costs as the bubbles burst, including large falls in economic demand and activity.
- Governments must better manage their housing markets through fiscal policy, financial regulation, and ensuring balanced growth to prevent unsustainable imbalances from developing.
Why Latvia succeeded and Southern Europe failedLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Dr. Anders Åslund, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics (USA) at Bank of Latvia conference ""Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?
Riga, November 2, 2012.
The document is a weekly market perspectives report from Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. dated September 10th, 2012. It provides a summary of recent economic events and data in Europe and the US, as well as previews of key events and data expected for the coming week. Specifically, it discusses the ECB's new bond-buying program, weak economic data from Europe and the US, expectations for further monetary easing from the Fed, and suggests buying shares of the Portuguese bank BES.
1) Portugal's debt problems stem from rigid product and labor market regulations that have led to declining productivity and competitiveness.
2) While political risks are lower than other troubled European countries, more time is needed to restore Portugal's economy as significant reforms have been implemented.
3) The IMF assesses that existing financial assistance for Portugal is adequate, but risks remain and additional funds from Europe may be needed, though funds are available.
Similar to The Current Situation of the Euro Crisis / Joachim Scheide (20)
This document summarizes a presentation on sustainability and CSR strategies in German companies. It provides background on the Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IÖW), including its focus areas and topics. It then discusses definitions of CSR and sustainability management, key developments and trends, and common drivers. It also outlines the IÖW/future ranking of sustainability reports, including its goals, evaluation criteria, and characteristics of good reports. Specific positive and negative company examples are also presented.
The document summarizes a presentation given by GLS Bank on their banking practices. GLS Bank is a social-ecological bank based in Berlin that aims to serve people and invest in sustainable projects. Their guiding principles include consistency, transparency, and enabling self-determined participation. They see money as a means to meet basic human needs, and seek to manage it sustainably by considering social and environmental impacts.
The document summarizes a presentation given by Michael C. Burda on the German labor market miracle during the Great Recession. It outlines that Germany was able to reduce hours worked per employee and productivity per hour rather than employment levels. It identifies several factors as important contributors, including extensive use of short-time work, flexible working time accounts, wage moderation, and temporary agency workers. The presentation concludes that working time accounts were very important as they increased the flexibility to adjust hours worked rather than employment levels in response to the economic downturn.
Dr. Ralph Piotrowski from the Ecologic Institute presented research on supporting sustainable behavior change through creating supportive environments. The research project InContext analyzes case studies of alternative practices and accompanies transition processes in local communities. Key findings include that educational efforts should avoid critique and focus on joint reflection of human needs and quality of life. Policy recommendations encourage maintaining spaces for experimentation, collective ownership models, and financial support for transition initiatives.
The document discusses fostering social innovation and social entrepreneurship. It describes social entrepreneurs as seeking to solve social problems without profit motives. It notes that social innovations can help counter challenges like youth unemployment by providing new opportunities and qualifications. The document advocates supporting social innovations through initiatives like social impact labs, scholarships, and networking to enable ideas and address social issues.
The document summarizes renewable energy development in Germany. It notes that renewable energy targets include achieving 18% of final energy consumption from renewables by 2020, and increasing to 60% by 2050. It also outlines Germany's plan to phase out nuclear energy completely by 2022 following Fukushima. Charts show strong growth in wind, solar PV, and biomass electricity generation due to Germany's feed-in tariff policy. Renewables contributed over 25% of Germany's electricity in 2012 and 10.4% of heat in 2011.
1) DB's organizational structure consists of three divisions: passenger transport, infrastructure, and transport and logistics. It achieved record revenues in 2011 with EBIT increasing 24% compared to 2010.
2) The 1994 Railway Reform Act marked the beginning of a new era for Deutsche Bahn AG, implementing entrepreneurial structures, opening rail to competition, and delegating local passenger transport. This led to greater profitability and debt reduction.
3) Since 1994, DB Group's revenues have risen continuously with a 156% increase, while earnings before interest and taxes have shown a favorable development in recent years. Passenger and freight transport volumes have also increased significantly.
This document discusses translating sustainability into action plans for rural areas through a case project called "Garden of Metropolises". It argues that re-regionalization through local renewable energy and food production can help revitalize rural areas by reducing transportation needs, empowering citizens, and lowering dependence on global volatility. While regionalization does not guarantee sustainability, the document claims it provides a better path by fostering local entrepreneurship, rural-urban partnerships, and minimizing resource usage through short supply chains.
How to Translate Sustainability into Action Plans in Rural Areas - Case Proje...
The Current Situation of the Euro Crisis / Joachim Scheide
1. The current situation of the euro crisis
Sitra’s Sustainable Economy Forum in Berlin – November 7, 2012
Joachim Scheide, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
2. The current situation of the euro crisis
- Outline -
1. The outlook: Recession now and poor prospects for long-term growth
2. Financial markets and economic policy: The crisis mode continues
3. Low growth and high debt: A “vicious cycle” must be avoided
4. The best solution: Budget consolidation and growth policies
5. If this does not work, there are only 3 options, all of them are costly
6. The policy of bailouts has reached its limits
7. Debt restructuring as the natural solution in a market economy
8. But governments seem to favor inflation – will the ECB give in?
3. 1. Recession now and poor prospects for long-term growth
● In order to assess the outlook for the crisis, we have to be clear about
the economic outlook, both in the short term and in the long term.
● There is no end of the recession in sight for the Euro Area before mid-2013,
and this even implies an optimistic view on expectations.
● For the medium term, we should not expect a buoyant upswing.
● The typical pattern after a crisis suggests that the recovery will be modest,
and that we will not return to the old trend: This time is not different!
● As an extreme example: Spain is especially hard hit – more on that later.
4. Business expectations will have to turn around soon
if the Euro Area should overcome the recession in 2013
2 Index
1
0
-1
Germany
-2
Euro Area without Germany
Euro Area
-3
-4
-5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
5. Divergence of unemployment rates:
Germany’s exceptional performance
14 Percent
13
12 Euro Area excl. Germany
11
10
9
Euro Area total
8
7
Germany
6
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
6. Change of real GDP in the European Union:
Germany on top with just 1 % growth
Land 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Germany 3.7 3.3 1.1 -5.1 4.2 3.0 0.8 1.1
France 2.7 2.2 -0.2 -2.6 1.5 1.7 0.1 0.5
Italy 2.2 1.7 -1.2 -5.1 1.5 0.4 -2.2 -0.8
Spain 4.1 3.5 0.9 -3.7 -0.1 0.7 -1.5 -1.1
Euro Area 3.3 3.0 0.3 -4.2 1.9 1.5 -0.4 0.3
Britain 2.6 3.6 -1.0 -4.0 1.8 0.7 -0.2 0.6
EU 27 3.5 3.2 0.7 -4.1 2.0 1.6 -0.2 0.6
7. Real GDP in the current situation: United States
The typical pattern after the crisis
115 Index
110
Trend
105
100
95
GDP
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
8. Real GDP in the current situation: Euro Area
Also the typical pattern (in some cases worse!)
115 Index
110
Trend
105
100
95
GDP
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
9. Real GDP in the current situation: Spain
Hit especially hard by the housing crisis and the debt crisis
120 Index
115
110 Trend
105
100
95
GDP
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
10. 2. Financial markets and economic policy: The crisis mode
continues
● Many indicators suggest that markets and policy are still in the crisis mode:
1. Yields on government bonds of crisis countries are still high.
2. So are the risk premiums for banks: Debt crisis = banking crisis.
3. Stress on financial markets is still high although it came down a bit.
4. BOP financing by the Eurosystem continues preventing adjustments.
● Besides, the ECB has been flooding the markets with liquidity.
So the crisis will be with us somewhat longer:
We may not have seen the beginning of the end of the crisis!
11. Bond yields in the crisis countries have come down modestly
20 Percent
Austria Belgium
Finland France
15
Germany Ireland
Italy Netherlands
Portugal Spain
10
5
0
12. Banking crisis: CDS premiums for European banks still high
600 Basis points
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
13. IfW-Indicator for financial market stress in the Euro Area
5 Index
First wave of
the crisis
4 (Lehman)
Second wave
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
14. National central bank Target balances against the Eurosystem
800
Euro bill. B.o.p. financing prevents adjustment Euro bill. 800 Germany
Netherlands
Luxembourg
600 600
Finland
Estonia
400 400 Malta
Slovenia
Slovakia
200 200
Cyprus
France
0 0 Belgium
Austria
Portugal
-200 -200
Greece
Ireland
-400 -400 Italy
Spain
-600 -600
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Compilation by the ifo Institute.
15. 3. Low growth and high debt: “Vicious cycle” must be avoided
● Industrial countries have reached the highest debt ratio in peacetime.
● The ratio also went up in the Euro Area, even well before the crisis.
● This is the key to the solution of the crisis: The level of debt is so high –
above 90 % – that it may depress growth: This would be the “vicious cycle”.
● Looking at debt-to-GDP ratios of several countries, Spain does not look bad.
● But the main question is: Will Spain grow fast enough in the future?
This is important for the willingness of investors to hold government bonds.
16. Government debt in advanced economies since 1880:
The highest debt ratio in peacetime
140 Percent
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
17. Government debt in the Euro Area reaching a critical level:
Was this really good for growth??? (Debt/GDP in %)
100 Percent
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
18. Debt-to-GDP ratios for selected economies in 2011:
Is Spain really so bad?
250 Percent
200
150
100
50
0
Japan Greece Italy Portugal Ireland United Iceland Belgium France United Spain
States Kingdom
19. 4. The best solution: Budget consolidation and growth policies
● Best strategy: Reduce budget deficits and support long-term growth
because only such a policy would tackle the causes of the problems.
● Needless to say, this is tough, but it is in the interest of the crisis countries.
● Main uncertainty, also for investors: What is the medium-term growth rate?
● This is especially difficult to assess for countries like Spain: For many years,
they had a boom which was not sustainable. Now we see the correction.
● Simulations show: Reducing the debt ratio is possible, but that may take
years – and it needs continuous efforts of future governments as well.
20. Real GDP in Euro Area countries 1999 – 2008:
In part, growth was unsustainable due to misallocations
160 1999=100
Ireland
150
140 Greece
Spain
130
120 France
Portugal/
110
Germany
Italy
100
90
1999 2008
21. Correction between 2008 and 2012:
But what is the sustainable level and growth rate???
160 1999=100
150
140 Ireland
130
Spain
120 France
Greece
Germany
110
Portugal
Italy
100
90
1999 2008 2012
22. Real GDP in the current situation: Spain
What is the income and the growth rate in the long run???
120 Index
115
110 Trend
105
100
95
GDP
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
23. Spain: Stabilization of the debt-to-GDP ratio is possible –
but this crucially depends on medium-term growth
Primary Interest Debt
Year GDP Inflation
balance rate to GDP
2012 -1.5 0.0 -3.4 3.9 77
2013 -0.1 0.3 -1.8 4.1 82
2014 0.8 0.7 0.0 4.3 84
2015 1.4 1.0 1.5 4.5 84
2016 1.8 1.2 3.0 4.7 83
2017 1.5 1.0 3.0 4.7 81
2018 1.5 1.0 3.0 4.7 80
2019 1.5 1.0 3.0 4.7 79
2020 1.5 1.0 3.0 4.7 77
24. Doing Business – World Bank Ranking (2012)
Indicator for the poor growth performance which can be changed!
Greece Italy Spain
Total 100 87 44
Starting a business 135 77 133
Construction permits 41 96 38
Getting electricity 77 109 69
Registering property 150 84 56
Getting credit 78 98 48
Protecting investors 155 65 97
Paying taxes 83 134 48
Trading across borders 84 63 55
Enforcing contracts 90 158 54
24
Closing a business 57 30 20
25. 5. If this strategy does not work, there are only 3 bad options
● While the Euro Area countries have decided to follow the strategy of
budget consolidation and growth promotion, there are still problems of
implementation: Political will, social unrest etc.
● Another reason is that incentives are perverse: We have rescue funds.
Policies relying on peer pressure are not as effective as market pressure.
● If the “ideal” strategy does not work, there are only three options:
1. Bailouts with ever larger transfers.
2. Insolvency or debt restructuring for countries and esp. for banks.
3. Inflation.
26. 6. The policy of bailouts has reached its limits
● The limits of the rescue philosophy have become more obvious.
● The big risk is that the burden for the creditor countries becomes too large.
As a result, their rating may deteriorate as well, and they will no be able
anymore to “rescue” others.
● And there is more and more resistance against an increase of the exposure:
Austria: 80 billion euros Finland: 51 billion euros
France: 578 billion euros Germany: 771 billion euros
Netherlands: 165 billion euros and so on …
… with a total of about 2200 billion euros.
28. 7. Debt restructuring is a normal solution in a market economy
● If we do not want to have more and more bailouts, we have to make a choice.
● To be sure, insolvency and restructuring of government debt will hurt
investors, but that would be better than imposing the costs on taxpayers.
● However, proposals of an orderly insolvency mechanism have been rejected
by European policymakers – the Greek case was declared an exception.
● But the risk is that countries will become insolvent anyway, and then
there will be chaos and turbulences since governments are not prepared.
The policy may not be sustainable, and the alternative is worse: Inflation!!!
29. 8. Governments seem to favor inflation – will the ECB give in?
● We have a big problem: Governments are excluding insolvencies,
and the ECB is excluding higher inflation. This is incompatible!
● The crisis management so far has brought us closer to the inflation scenario.
● Another step in this direction: The ECB announced they will buy government
bonds of crisis countries without limit. This looks like debt monetization.
● The ECB is not independent anymore. But the independence of a central bank
is the key to successful stabilization policy – look at inflationary episodes.
And: The independence of the ECB is a core principle of the Treaty!!!
30. 8. Governments seem to favor inflation – will the ECB give in?
● Many economists are saying that inflation is the logical solution.
Some even argue that is a good solution to have higher inflation for a while.
● For governments, it is also an easy way out: They don’t have to ask their
parliaments (the taxpayer) for more money for transfers to other countries.
● With inflation, the costs are not easy to calculate but are hidden.
● But experience shows: If a central bank loses its credibility, it has huge
economic and social costs to regain it (M. Draghi).
This could be the end of the Monetary Union!!!
31. The crucial question: What kind of Monetary Union do we want?
There is not yet any sustainable solution to the euro crisis.
One reason: Governments do not agree on a vision.
Two (extreme) positions:
Go back to Maastricht – or create a new “political union”.
Problem: A political union is interpreted quite differently.
Strong centralization and supervision is not a common goal.
But: Maastricht 2.0 is also not accepted because it is
a “German” solution.
So it is hard to see a way out.
32. Conclusions (1)
● The euro crisis is far from being over, we have not even seen the beginning
of the end of the crisis.
● Germany’s role is defensive for many reasons:
- Supposedly we benefit most from the monetary union.
- Supposedly, we even benefit from the crisis (e.g. low interest rates).
- The government is hesitant to “impose” its solutions on others.
● In the absence of a common vision for the Monetary Union, there is a strong
fraction in favor of more transfers (France, Italy, Spain, …). Germany is
almost isolated in the opposition but criticized for always saying “No!”.
33. Conclusions (2)
● Nobody wants a collapse of the Monetary Union, simply because nobody
wants to be blamed for the failure, neither any government, nor the ECB.
● This makes policy more difficult: What are the options if the conditionality is
not met? Germany cannot credibly say: We will leave if costs are too high.
● By continuing this type of policy (“The euro has to be saved at all costs”)
we run the risk of a collapse which would mean chaos.
It could either be the unwillingness of the taxpayers to come up
with more money, or it could be that inflation is too high.
34. What is sustainable in terms of European policy?
Currently, “muddling through” prevails and that is certainly not sustainable.
At the national level and esp. at the international level, certain rules and
principles must be established to ensure a stable environment for decisions.
In the absence of such rules, policymakers may return to ad-hoc decisions
which normally lead to undesirable outcomes: Inflation and other instabilities.
For the Euro Area, the major framework of rules is still the Maastricht Treaty.
But right now, these rules are ignored or even deliberately violated.
This is certainly unsustainable!!!