Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview October 2015

1. October 2015
Economic Indicators

2. Intentional
evolution
Economic Outlook – October 2015
2
Europe:
• Consensus GDP forecast for WE remained stable on 1,7% for 2015 and came down from 1,9%
to 1,8% for 2016.
• The EU industrial confidence improved slightly in September while consumer confidence
deteriorated again.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again in September. The German economy is
proving to be robust.
• Even if GDP held up well during Q2 (+0,4% q-o-q), pressure on ECB mounted to introduce
further stimulus based on fears over a renewed deflation return.
US:
• Consensus GDP forecast for the US remained on 2,5% for 2015 and came down from 2,7% to
2,6% for 2016.
• The US Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting raised
concerns about the global economy.
Japan:
• The GDP forecast for Japan came down again from 0,7% to 0,6% for 2015, and from 1,5%
to 1,3% for 2016.
• Confidence in Japanese economy suffered a further blow with the credit rate downgrading
from Standard & Poor’s from AA- to A+.

3. Intentional
evolution
Eurostat Data
3

4. Intentional
evolution4
GDP EU 28 vs same Quarter last Year
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4 09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
14Q1
15Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
Source: Eurostat Sep 15

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GDP EU 28 Q-o-Q
Source: Eurostat Sep 15
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1 09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
14Q1
15Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter

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EU 28 Consumer Price Index
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
09/1
10/1
11/1
12/1
13/1
14/1
15/1
16/1
%
Source: Eurostat Oct 15

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ECB Interest Rate
Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Sep 15
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
Sep.15; -0,1
Oct 15; 0,05
Oct 15; 0,25
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
Jan09
Jul.09
Jan10
Jul.10
Jan11
July11
Jan12
Jul.12
Jan13
Jul.13
Jan14
Jul.14
Jan15
Jul.15
Jan16
%

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EU 28 Unemployment Rate
9,5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
Jan16
%
Source: Eurostat Oct 15

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Industrial Confidence EU
Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in September after the fall in August.
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10 Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
Jan16
Source: Eurostat Sep 15

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Consumer Confidence EU
Consumer Confidence within EU 28 fell again in September.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
Jan16
Source: Eurostat Sep 15

11. Intentional
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Capacity Utilization EU 27
In Manufacturing Industry
60
65
70
75
80
85 04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
07Q1
08Q1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
14Q1
15Q1
81,4
%
Source: Eurostat Aug 15

12. IFO Data
12

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IFO World Economic Climate
The Ifo Index for the world economy cooled down in the third quarter 2015.
Source: IFO Aug 15
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

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IFO European Economic Climate
The Economic climate tended downwards in Q3 2015
Source: IFO Aug 15
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

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IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 15
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

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evolution16
IFO Asia Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 15
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.

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GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Aug 15

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GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Aug 15

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Exchange rate USD vs EUR
Source: IFO Apr 15

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IFO Situation and Expectations Germany
Source: IFO Sep 15
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
Business situation
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
6 months expectations
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose again slightly in September. Companies assessed
their current business situation slightly less favorably than in August, but they expressed greater
optimism about future business. The German economy is proving to be robust.

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IFO Current Business Situation Germany
Source: IFO Sep 15
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose again slightly in September. Companies assessed
their current business situation slightly less favorably than in August, but they expressed greater
optimism about future business. The German economy is proving to be robust.

22. Intentional
evolution22
IFO Climate German Printing Industry
The business situation (blue line) within the printing industry improved by 3,3% in July compared to the
previous month, reaching its highest level since 1991. The business expectations (grey line) on the other
hand deteriorated by 2,1%, leaving the business climate (red line) fairly stable with plus 0,3%.
Source: IFO Aug 15, bundesverband druck und medien

23. Zenith Data
23

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Global Advertising Growth
Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15

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Regional Advertising Development
Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15

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Global Advertising Markets
Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15

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evolution27
Global Advertising Markets
Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15

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evolution28
Advertising by Medium
Source: ZenithOptimedia 06/15

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Thank you