The document discusses the transformative impact of ebooks on the publishing industry, highlighting trends such as the rising popularity of e-readers and the changing dynamics in libraries and consumer behavior. It notes significant growth in ebook sales, the varying adoption rates among different demographics, and the anticipated shift towards ebooks becoming the default format for educational materials. The future of the market is forecasted to include innovations like enhanced ebooks and new business models for publishing.

1. eBooks – tipping points and milestonesTerry O’Brien, Deputy Librarian,WIT Libraries.IIUG Tralee June 2011

2. “Without a doubt, the eBook is practically the biggest thing that’s hit the publishing industry since the invention of movable type”(Philip Ruppel, CEO McGraw-Hill, 2011)“inexorable rise of the eBook”(CIBER, UCL)

4. Increased feesHuge library cutsMore for lessLibrary supplier consolidationReach of Amazon, Apple, GoogleThe iPad and the AppThe CloudRetail damageContext

6. 10m digital album sales this year alreadyiPad sold 3m units in first 80 daysNetflix 23.6m subscribersQ1 2011 – DVD sales down 20%Downloading, subscription etc. up 33%Rise in social media, streaming servicesAccess not ownershipKindle, Sony Reader and Nook can now all borrow from librariesDigital content surge

7. “Device that will change the way readers read, writers write and publishers publish” (2008)eReaderis a game changer“paradigm shifting device”Sales of eBook and Kindle have reached a “tipping point” (Jeff Bezos, 2011)

8. The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference (Malcolm Gladwell, Little Brown, 2000)"the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point““Ideas and products and messages and behaviors spread like viruses do.““It's a book about change … a new way of understanding why change so often happens as quickly and as unexpectedly as it does”

11. More ‘e’ than ‘p’

14. Mainstream but not ubiquitousMore than ½ “best-selling” eBooks are free, many cost $0.99, many are eroticaLibrary books can now be downloaded (US)4% m-on-m increase in available titles What it means to read, new kinds of reading experiencesNY Times (2010) “yes, people read but now its social”Lending clubsSuited to pure text - fiction, rather than eTextbooks, iPad might address thisAmazon & Kindle

16. Kindle

17. “Kindle eco-system expansion”eReaders “increase propensity to buy books and content .. due to convenience, cost, 24/7”Kindle revenuesKindle growth (Carris & Co. Analysts, 2011)

18. Amazon does not disclose metricsSales relates to volume not revenueIncludes Kindle books not read on Kindle devicesOnly 30% of Amazon book sales are in eBook across all categoriesEven free books get a receipt on Amazon, but are no longer counted in sales figureseBooks are cheaper for the consumerKindle figures include sales of print books where no Kindle editions are availableAmazon skepticism

19. Bloomsbury Publishers“demand is for digital delivery, rendering traditional relationships irrelevant”UK figures

20. Penguin eBook revenues up 182% this year, 6% of global revenuesHachette UK eBook sales quadrupled Q1 201170% of digital sales were from academic and professional sales in 2010 but consumer drive has widened audiencesUK Amazon store selling Kindle books at ratio 2-1 hbks since 2011Bookseller (UK) by 2015 50% ‘parity then plateau’UK Publishers Association - £180m in 2010eBooks subject to VATGerman market now at a tipping pointUK figures – exponential growth

21. Association of American Publishers

24. ALA – ¾ public libraries offer eBooks5% of American adults own some form of eBook reader – Pew Internet estimates this will rise to 12% this summereBooks fastest segment of borrowed items categoriesNew York public library – highest circulating eBook library in USA - loans up 36%Most checkouts take place on weekends eReaders download more books than book buyers buy American Library Association

25. Most popular eBooks Romance, mystery, crime most popular genresShort, quick reads, part of series, read in succession, multiple buysAmazon customers buy 3.3 times as many books after buying a KindleSeasonal buying patterns, post holiday loadingBacklist purchasing and series purchasing popularChildren’s print books remain very strongMen more likely to buy tablets, women more likely to buy eReaders (Forrester Research (2011)eBook trends

26. eBook trends that may change publishing?Bundled booksSocial readingeBook clubse-first publishingFree e-readers – incentivisation Open access eBooksMonetization experiments – in book advertising, sponsored links etc.Enhanced eBooks coming and will only get betterThe device war is nearly overThe $9.99 model won’t lastPublishers will remain important despite self-publishing“Contextual upsell” a business model to watchPhilip Ruppel, McGraw-HillMichael Hyatt, Thomas Nelson

27. Digital Book World Conference predict eBooks will reach parity with print in 2014Goldman Sachs est. 13% of all book sales will be eBook format by 2015, representing over £3 billionAmazon share of eBook cake will fall by 50% over next 5 years as Google and Apple eat into market. “By 2017 eBook will be the default format for textbooks, scholarly books and reference works” Highwire Librarian survey (2009) – 50% of all acquisitions will be eBook by 2015A mere 10% of new titles will be available in print alone by 2020 (BL) Next few years ...

28. Kindle iPad app has increased eBook sales The app - huge impact on digital literature Google Books – “reading unbound” mass digitization projectBritish Library / Google projectApple iBooksVertical Integration – Amazon opening a publishing division, controlling all parts of the chaineTextbooks yet to take off – delayed adoptionDevice convergence could shorten eReaders' lifespanSignificant developments

29. “the next five years will see an explosion of the eReader textbook market, and in 10 years, the market will be driven by businesses going green in government, education, health and other sectors”Forrester Research

30. Demand drivers

32. Age and gender importantUndergrads and academic staff Appeals to digital consumers who prefer bite size chunks of information (CIBER)Men greater users, business students more likely to use eBooks are not read sequentially “dipping” for ‘use’ (specific) more than ‘read’ (cover to cover)Convenience factorConfusion about formatsLog analysis shows power browsing, quick usageSkimming is endemicUser behaviours in academic libraries

33. eBooks – academic libraries

34. “eTextbooks flunk early test” (2011)‘2010 survey - students not warming to eBooks’“eBooks only an important research tool for 13% of 3,000 respondents”‘students continue to prefer printed books to e-books’UCL 2011 “students still refer print when it comes to using, reading, absorbing” (Roy,2009)“Why aren’t eBooks gaining more ground in academic libraries” (Slater, JWebLib, 2010)“Kindles yet to woo university users” “not knowing how or where to find big factor in lack of usage”“students .. unclear about structure and functionality of eBooks”(Berget, JAL, 2010)

36. Some possibilities - where do we fit in?

38. “A university (or an IoT ...)is just a group ofbuildings gathered around a library”Shelby FooteThank you!Terry O’Brien Deputy Librarian, WIT. www.wit.ie/library#witlibrariestpobrien@wit.ie