The document describes a proposed Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) that uses a systems engineering approach to forecast earthquakes. EQFS would combine historical fault data with real-time satellite and ground observations. It would model earthquakes as interactive systems and use probability analysis to forecast the likelihood of quakes in specific areas and of certain magnitudes within given time windows. Diagrams show the functional flow and architecture of EQFS, which aims to improve earthquake forecasting and mitigate loss of life and property damage worldwide.

1. TRL 2 Technology Concept
POC
Gerald Temple, PE
gerald.temple@nasa.gov
mobile: (510) 304-7243
Friedemann Freund, PhD
friedemann.t.freund@nasa.gov
mobile: (650) 279-8478

2. Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS) Principle Concepts
• EQFS: world’s first earthquake forecasting algorithm using NASA’s System
Engineering approach.
• EQFS combines historical EQ fault information with multi-source real time data
from satellites and ground observations.
• EQFS uses computer modeling and testability analysis to simulate an EQ as a
system with many interactive subsystems:
• Input
• Output
• Feedback
• Precursory functionality.
• EQFS uses a probability quantification analysis for simplistic computation:
• Less chance for error
• Easy comprehension
• Easy communication
• Quick and easy updating and modification.
• EQFS finds probability of an EQ of a given magnitude range within a given time
window for a given geographical area.

3. Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS)
Generic System Failure Probability Diagram to develop the TEAMS
Earthquake ForecastingTestability Model

4. Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS)
Top Level Functional Flow Diagram of an Unstable Nonlinear Geo-System

5. Earthquake Forecasting System (EQFS)
Detailed Level Functional Flow Diagram

6. Architecture for a new approach to
earthquake forecasting.
Will save countless lives and billions of dollars
throughout the world.
Magnitude 6.3 earthquake rocks Christchurch, NZ, on Feb. 22, 2011 at 12.51 pm local time